2020 New York Redistricting

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Is there anything that even shows national Republicans are doing anything at all to influence redistricting this time around?

It's true they are doing a worse job of it this time around than they have done in the past, but that is just the natural consequence of letting Trump run the GOP and having the national party fall into an uncoordinated chaotic mess, devoid of any serious leadership and intelligent well-informed strategic analysis of the sort they used to have.

[Zaybay]

TX itself is a good example of this. Although the national and statewide parties agreed on overall objectives, shoring up their delegation, the map drawn by the statewide leaders was not looked upon favorably by national interests. National interests in MO and IN wanted vastly different maps compared to what the Rs got. Dems nationally were pushing for an 8-0 map, rather loudly I might add, and instead god a watershed 7-0-1. This is redistricting.

The TX map was coordinated and drawn directly by Mike McCaul, representing national interests and the interests of the TX Congressional delegation, and state legislators. It is true that it was not coordinated with RRH, but McCaul represented national GOP interests on behalf of the TX Congressional delegation, not RRH. And of course, McCaul also managed to represent his own personal interests by giving himself a particularly safe and much more rural district. The reason why the TX map was not more aggressive was simply that it would not have been in the best interest of the national GOP to risk losing even more seats in Dem trending urban-suburban TX.

He absolutely did not represent the interests of the national party, and many national figures got displeased with him for his mapping choices. Not folks on Reddit or RRH, real party officials in the national party. In fact, many statewide members and congressional figures were displeased with his map, which seemed to only favor Mike McCaul and his cronies rather than anyone else (the Fajitas in particular were not well received). Its a good partisan map, mind you, but the connection between it being good from a partisan perspective and the national party coordinating with the state officials (with said state officials accurately following along) isn't there.

Is there anything that even shows national Republicans are doing anything at all to influence redistricting this time around?

It's true they are doing a worse job of it this time around than they have done in the past, but that is just the natural consequence of letting Trump run the GOP and having the national party fall into an uncoordinated chaotic mess, devoid of any serious leadership and intelligent well-informed strategic analysis of the sort they used to have.

Same kinda story here, there's never actually been any evidence of national dictation when it comes to drawing maps. The closest you get is the national effort through Redmap, but the goal there was to give the state parties the tools and incentive to gerrymander, but not actually help make the maps themselves.

And this time around they don't even have Redmap, or a similar program, going on.

[Oryxslayer]

Same kinda story here, there's never actually been any evidence of national dictation when it comes to drawing maps. The closest you get is the national effort through Redmap, but the goal there was to give the state parties the tools and incentive to gerrymander, but not actually help make the maps themselves.

And this time around they don't even have Redmap, or a similar program, going on.

If there are two reasons why this cycle is not playing out as the GOP desired, it is cause of the better position of the dems - thanks to 2018 - and the death of Thomas Hofeller. Hofeller knew what demographic indicators to look for beyond the topline partisanship of his time, allowing him to provide data proving the maps wouldn't instantly collapse. Now of course you can do swings and other calculations, but the GOP doesn't know how far the suburbs might collapse so caution is the legislators watchword.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

TX itself is a good example of this. Although the national and statewide parties agreed on overall objectives, shoring up their delegation, the map drawn by the statewide leaders was not looked upon favorably by national interests. National interests in MO and IN wanted vastly different maps compared to what the Rs got. Dems nationally were pushing for an 8-0 map, rather loudly I might add, and instead god a watershed 7-0-1. This is redistricting.

The TX map was coordinated and drawn directly by Mike McCaul, representing national interests and the interests of the TX Congressional delegation, and state legislators. It is true that it was not coordinated with RRH, but McCaul represented national GOP interests on behalf of the TX Congressional delegation, not RRH. And of course, McCaul also managed to represent his own personal interests by giving himself a particularly safe and much more rural district. The reason why the TX map was not more aggressive was simply that it would not have been in the best interest of the national GOP to risk losing even more seats in Dem trending urban-suburban TX.

He absolutely did not represent the interests of the national party, and many national figures got displeased with him for his mapping choices. Not folks on Reddit or RRH, real party officials in the national party. In fact, many statewide members and congressional figures were displeased with his map, which seemed to only favor Mike McCaul and his cronies rather than anyone else (the Fajitas in particular were not well received). Its a good partisan map, mind you, but the connection between it being good from a partisan perspective and the national party coordinating with the state officials (with said state officials accurately following along) isn't there.

This is interesting. Do you have any articles/anything to read to check out about it?

[ProgressiveModerate]

The Point: NY and LI redistricting enter the U.S. spotlight

Behind a paywall, but the key quote is:

Nothing is final yet. Furthermore, Albany insiders said with assurance on Thursday that the legislative proposal due out by the weekend and due to be submitted for Assembly and Senate approval next wee, is significantly different from Maloney's congressional plan for New York

That includes all the congressional "hot spots": namely Suffolk, Staten Island, and Western New York, where the lines "do not resemble" what Maloney is pushing for, a state source said

Before people jump to conclusions over this, this isn't really telling as to how gerrymandered the map will or won't be. There are many ways to make a Dem gerry that doesn't look anything like Maloney's and obviously a fair map wouldn't look anything like Maloney's either.

This prolly does rule out with relative certainty Staten Island being attatched to Lower Manhattan though, and if Dems go for a LI gerry, NY-01 prolly becomes the blue seat.

Technically speaking though no matter what aren't the lines on Staten Island going to be exactly the same unless they choose to split it? They probably just meant where it's attached to, but would be funny if we got Staten Island split into 2 districts.


TBH I'm getting Florida vibes out of all this. They prolly try to shore up NY-18 and NY-19, and at least make a half-hearted attempt for NY-11 and one of the LI seats, but nor a maximalist map. Also, if they're not gonna eliminate make NY-22 blue, NY-24 at least gets slightly better for Dems

[Torie]

If the maps are even remotely like those that have been floated, it is going straight to the NYS Appellate Division of the Appellate Court. It will be interesting to find out how the Democrats will explain that their butt ugly facially obvious gerrymander does not "unduly" favor one party.
It will be even more interesting to read the court decision.

[lfromnj]

I mean Maloney's  proposal is just whack, NY03 going from Long island into Westchester and the Staten Island stuff going into Manhattan. Neither make much sense.

[Brittain33]

What's wrong with Staten Island into Manhattan? There's both historical precedent and a heavily used ferry.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Let’s see what the map looks like before we panic/celebrate/etc

[lfromnj]

What's wrong with Staten Island into Manhattan? There's both historical precedent and a heavily used ferry.

Because drawing Staten Island to Brooklyn gives those annoying Crane Husbands of NYC their seat. Drawing to Manhattan doesn't do the same as neither Nadler nor Maloney will take Staten Island and now Maloney is further pushed out of Manhattan. Nadler is needed to take the Orthodox Jews anyway.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

If the maps are even remotely like those that have been floated, it is going straight to the NYS Appellate Division of the Appellate Court. It will be interesting to find out how the Democrats will explain that their butt ugly facially obvious gerrymander does not "unduly" favor one party.
It will be even more interesting to read the court decision.

As Maloney (or whoever he got to write the memo) lucidly explained in the memo, the map was not drawn to favor one party - and in particular not to "unduly" favor one such party. Insofar as it favors any one party, such favoritism is "due."

The real rationale for drawing the districts he proposes is all about communities of interest. As with, for example, a district combining the lakefront communities, such as the district he proposes be drawn stretching from Buffalo to Rochester.

Question: Why would you want to split up lakefront communities?
Answer: You wouldn't, unless you didn't care about the community of interest that is lakefront communities and wished to oppress their community. And that would be a disgraceful neglect of fair, neutral, non-partisan redistricting principles. And that is not something we can stand for.

Now, maybe drawing a district based on communities of interest turns out to favor the Democratic Party. But honestly, who is to say - maybe it won't end up favoring the Democratic Party. After all, voting patterns change and will be different in 2022 than they were in 2020. And naturally we haven't even looked at partisan data from 2020 and know nothing whatsoever about such things.

So even if it does favor one particular political party, it is a mere coincidence that flows naturally from drawing a map that respects communities of interest in New York State such as what Maloney has proposed. Just one of those things.

[Oryxslayer]

What's wrong with Staten Island into Manhattan? There's both historical precedent and a heavily used ferry.

Because drawing Staten Island to Brooklyn gives those annoying Crane Husbands of NYC their seat. Drawing to Manhattan doesn't do the same as neither Nadler nor Maloney will take Staten Island and now Maloney is further pushed out of Manhattan. Nadler is needed to take the Orthodox Jews anyway.

I'm not sure how possible this is if NY-11 is going up to Park Slope, and NY-07 still goes down to the Hispanic side of Sunset Park and Red Hook. Three districts squiggling along the coast is too much, which is probably why SPM discovered than Staten-Manhattan was an easier lift. But I'm sure one compromise or another will be found.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

What's wrong with Staten Island into Manhattan? There's both historical precedent and a heavily used ferry.

Yep, there is a clear community of interest of ferry riders. Many thousands of Bronz's NYPD officers ride the ferry in from Staten Island to Manhattan every day, where they police Times Square and make sure no terrorist attacks occur. So if you disrespect that community of interest, then you are disrespecting the police and helping the terrorists win.

[Tintrlvr]

What's wrong with Staten Island into Manhattan? There's both historical precedent and a heavily used ferry.

Because drawing Staten Island to Brooklyn gives those annoying Crane Husbands of NYC their seat. Drawing to Manhattan doesn't do the same as neither Nadler nor Maloney will take Staten Island and now Maloney is further pushed out of Manhattan. Nadler is needed to take the Orthodox Jews anyway.

I'm not sure how possible this is if NY-11 is going up to Park Slope, and NY-07 still goes down to the Hispanic side of Sunset Park and Red Hook. Three districts squiggling along the coast is too much, which is probably why SPM discovered than Staten-Manhattan was an easier lift. But I'm sure one compromise or another will be found.

The SI district doesn't squiggle along the coast in that scenario; it snakes through the middle of the Orthodox areas between Nadler's district and the black districts to the east.

[Minnesota Mike]

I was promised maps this weekend, where are the F****** maps?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I was promised maps this weekend, where are the F****** maps?

In classic NY fashion prolly either at 11:59:59 or 3 weeks late

[Oryxslayer]

I was promised maps this weekend, where are the F****** maps?

If they don't get released, blame the blizzard.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I was promised maps this weekend, where are the F****** maps?

It's time someone mapped out how the process actually will work. I don't like the uncertainty.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mahoneyw/status/1487880774187507714

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1487882589339848709?s=20&t=XODby3...

So it seems they did not actually do the Staten Island Ferry district after all...

[ProgressiveModerate]

At face value, this comes accross as a least change map that screws AOC

[BoiseBoy]

So are there visualizations or?

[Oryxslayer]

The previous tweets were apparently not the actual bills?

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1487884644771057672?s=20&t=XODby3...

Its the fing SPM map isn't it...at least on long Island.

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1487885140122611719?s=20&t=XODby3...

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1487885452967358470?s=20&t=XODby3...

Albany in NY19?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Has Downstate NY ever had a district that spanned five counties and a near-majority of NYC boroughs?

[Roll Roons]

So TL;DR, Tenney gets screwed.