2020 New York Redistricting

[Oryxslayer]

Something which will also matter is the new redistricting process.

This article summarizes the process:

In 2021, that commission will be created for the first time, composed of ten members -- two each appointed by the Assembly Speaker, Senate majority leader, and minority leaders in both houses; and two chosen by a majority of those eight appointed members...The law also protects against the party in power from exploiting its position. If the leaders of the two legislative chambers represent different parties, the newly drawn maps recommended by the commission must be approved by a majority vote of each house. But, if both chambers are controlled by the same party, approval would require a two-thirds majority vote.  

*

So basically if I'm understanding this correctly it'll be an Arizona-style bipartisan process with independent commissioners as tiebreakers. However, the legislature can apparently draw their own maps after voting down a few of the commission's maps--but I think this commission will probably have a bigger role than folks will think since it was passed with the agreement of leadership in both parties. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with a neat bipartisan gerrymander with each party losing a seat.



*Let me know if quoting this article is a copyright issue and I'll take it down.

I have mentioned in other threads that this commission is rather toothless since the legislature can get their own maps going not that long into the process. The only real difference between this body and the ignored 'advisory' commissions many states had in 2010 was that it is inscribed in law. The problem is that the law expected the NY Senate to remain a battleground, not a chamber where democrats are 2-3 seats away from a supermajority. Those 2-3 seats which could easily fall in 11 months, a GOP retirement has already given team blue one favored pickup.

[Oryxslayer]

Something which will also matter is the new redistricting process.

This article summarizes the process:

In 2021, that commission will be created for the first time, composed of ten members -- two each appointed by the Assembly Speaker, Senate majority leader, and minority leaders in both houses; and two chosen by a majority of those eight appointed members...The law also protects against the party in power from exploiting its position. If the leaders of the two legislative chambers represent different parties, the newly drawn maps recommended by the commission must be approved by a majority vote of each house. But, if both chambers are controlled by the same party, approval would require a two-thirds majority vote.  

*

So basically if I'm understanding this correctly it'll be an Arizona-style bipartisan process with independent commissioners as tiebreakers. However, the legislature can apparently draw their own maps after voting down a few of the commission's maps--but I think this commission will probably have a bigger role than folks will think since it was passed with the agreement of leadership in both parties. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with a neat bipartisan gerrymander with each party losing a seat.



*Let me know if quoting this article is a copyright issue and I'll take it down.

I have mentioned in other threads that this commission is rather toothless since the legislature can get their own maps going not that long into the process. The only real difference between this body and the ignored 'advisory' commissions many states had in 2010 was that it is inscribed in law. The problem is that the law expected the NY Senate to remain a battleground, not a chamber where democrats are 2-3 seats away from a supermajority. Those 2-3 seats which could easily fall in 11 months, a GOP retirement has already given team blue one favored pickup.

FWIW, NY politics tends to be rather corrupt with a lot of deal-making and tit-for-tat between the parties--the IDC is one of many manifestations of this phenomenon. A deep south style bargain between some Democrats and Republicans on redistricting doesn't seem impossible to me, though I don't know politics up there well enough to say for sure.

Or more likely, between some Republicans and the Democrats. They hold nearly all the power, in that scenario you attract allies of convenience rather than lose yours. It's why Felder is a Dem again, and why the IDC got obliterated in 2018.

[Oryxslayer]

I mean if you want a Dem Gerry....

I'm not under any impression that such a map is realistic.

25 district map BTW.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6fc23244-133c-40cb-9f9a-33a7454643c6

[Oryxslayer]

So after more retirements, it presently appears that Democratic a supermajority is easily within reach in the State Senate. Now that Felder is on the dem side and desiring power, there are 40 dems and they only need three more. Two of those three are now provided by the retirements in Rochester. The other 8 (and potentially more) open seats are forcing the GOP to play defense in their safer seats. A dem supermajority would allow the democrats to ignore their toothless commission without jumping through hoops or breaking much sweat.



Quick and dirty GOP retirement map, I do not claim ownership over the template.

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1218630301896839169

Ratings from NY insider when there were only 9 retirements.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1224749946865430529

They have a few months to see if their powers will be more than advisory.

[Oryxslayer]

Oh don't forget to give the Buffalo seat Niagara, Otherwise it could flip in a R wave.

More like those two cities are just paired for COI reasons, rather than wave proofing - Buffalo still doesn't have all the red turf beyond the first ring suburbs that makes the county potentially competitive in a good GOP year where they build on Trump. However, since they are paired for COi reasons, you shouldn't break the pairing.

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

I have had this may lying around for a few months, but this is what happens if you actually make an effort to protect the Dems. Doesn't actually carve up Stefanik since she moved to Saratoga county. Instead it's whomever win this year in NY22 and NY24 getting the axe. If Dems flip NY24 but lose NY22 than it's Tenney who's in a primary, if it's the opposite than it's Katko, if dems get both than it's DvD, if R's get both than Dems take their seat back and both get screwed.

Since California is my redistricting focus right now, I will not be posting followup maps.

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

I have had this may lying around for a few months, but this is what happens if you actually make an effort to protect the Dems. Doesn't actually carve up Stefanik since she moved to Saratoga county. Instead it's whomever win this year in NY22 and NY24 getting the axe. If Dems flip NY24 but lose NY22 than it's Tenney who's in a primary, if it's the opposite than it's Katko, if dems get both than it's DvD, if R's get both than Dems take their seat back and both get screwed.

Since California is my redistricting focus right now, I will not be posting followup maps.

Stefanik almost certainly gets a safe R seat given the commission.  Dems will be more than willing to allow this in exchange for protecting their incumbents.

Stefanik is in Pink, as are the majority of her GOP primary voters from the present NY21. So yes, she is given a safe seat to protect the dems.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ZackFinkNews/status/1285190840265183234?s=20

https://twitter.com/ZackFinkNews/status/1285190850566381569?s=20

Why at 63? That's such a weird number to cap it at.

Its the present number. It like most legislatures are odd so as to prevent ties.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/alexburnsNYT/status/1430339077929324544?s=20

New face, old tactics.

[Oryxslayer]

New face, old tactics.

This is a change from how Cuomo approached things.

What I meant is that its still gonna be a gerry - aka the old way of drawing lines.

[Oryxslayer]

There will be two different plans for everything released today because the commission apparently can't agree on anything and has divided along partisan lines. Makes the eventual legislative takeover of the process even easier.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/bern_hogan/status/1438189993428725767?s=20

GOP map goes cuts up NY-19, fortifies Tenney, and tries to draw out Maloney, Souzzi, and I think someone else using the Hasidim?

Dem plan fortifies these, can't see NY-11 changes. Draws out Katko with the explicit aim of Brindisi comback, Cuts Tenney, and makes the open NY-01 more dem. Also I think there is a progressive pack in brooklyn for AOC?

[Oryxslayer]

Dem Cong Plan





Brindisi replaces Katko.



AOC gets "drawn out" to the degree that drawn out means her district no longer has any of the progressive regions along the west of long island. Honestly she might have better odds primarying Maloney.

[Oryxslayer]

That's a more dem NY-11, not sure what % though.



NY-02 is exhumed of any overwhelming democratic towns, and NY-01 slides to the left.



Delgado's district should be more dem, but also changes a bit. Also Tonko is outside his house seat.

[Oryxslayer]

Bipartisan commissions don't work folks.

(There's a distinction to be made here between bipartisan commissions and non-partisan commissions, which have flaws but seem to be more effective)

These maps are going nowhere.

Yep, and if anything comes of them, its that the Dem plans will get picked up and refined by the legislature.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/504abbe1-01c2-45c4-8561-ff6f5d6d7fa4 D plan imported to DRA by using the csv file

Unfortunately this barely helps us, because DRA has no modern NY data, which is of course cause the state of NY has stupid data management procedures and not repository of precinct info.

[Oryxslayer]

Republican map for those that are wondering. Fairly clear upstate cracking of NY-19 to preserve their  incumbents and draw out one of 17/18.

Downstate though is arguably much more interesting on this proposal which will never be acted upon.



There's a AOC progressive pack, and NY-04 is redrawn into this sprawling Hasidim-suburb republican seat. Manhattan is drawn north-south BTW.

[Oryxslayer]

Wait, GOP actually submitted a plan that gerrymanders out Democrats?  That takes a lot of cajones. 

What is the net result of this?  The two sides disagree and Dem supermajority in the legislature draws an extremely gerrymandered congressional map?  (hopefully)

The end result of this is the legislature breaking the impasse in the commission and picking up the pen, to what extent we have yet to know.

[Oryxslayer]

The VEST team has finally compiled recent election results for NY, a delay mainly caused by the Empire State's lack of a central data archive. Said data will therefore soon be in Dave's, allowing us to finally analyze maps accurately.

[Oryxslayer]

Who could have forseen a breakdown and a punt back to the Dem trifecta....

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/NYElectionNews/status/1476731839234691073?s=20

NY continues it's slow march towards the D-mander.

[Oryxslayer]

The best Asian seat I could draw in Nassau/Queens while remaining reasonably compact:



48.4% Asian VAP, Biden +26. This makes drawing the rest of Nassau a bit ugly, however.

Would maintaining the arm up towards Astoria clean things up, or maybe dropping the whites along the north shore.

[Oryxslayer]

Commission has posted their competing plans. Not immediately apparent which is which parties plan, but map A is more D favorable so yeah. Both are D favoring, showing how much the scales are tilted in their favor, but the NYC suburbs and Staten are drawn differently. Map A isn't as extreme of a gerry as thought, but this is the commission, not the leg.

Katko on both maps is having to hold a massive L. '

Neither though got a majority of votes and both were submitted with 5 votes, 100% of one party's members or 50% of the body.

The legislative maps are actually substantially divergent whereas the congressional maps are both D favoring and only differ around NYC.

[Oryxslayer]

Neither of these are going to be the map

Yes, unless something changes, the likely outcome right now is both maps failing to obtain 2/3s of the legislature's votes. This gives the commission a final attempt at a compromise map (lol given the breakdown) before the legislature assumes responsibility.

[Oryxslayer]

We'll see what the legislature comes up with, but neither of these maps are that bad for the Republicans. They'd have a decent chance of 17-9 on the Dem map and 16-10 on the GOP map. Katko is probably finally toast in 2024, but I think he'd win by 5+ in 2022. He outperformed Trump by 20, so a Biden +17 isn't that bad for him in an R wave year. 1, 18, and 19 would all be very close. I think that Rs would probably come away with 2 out of the 3. Fairly sure they'd hold the LI seat, and one of the Hudson seats, with a better chance for Jones' seat than Maloney's.

I think that a GOP NYC seat makes it into the final map, either based in South Brooklyn or SI. Then an LI GOP seat, then 3 upstate GOP seats. 21 Biden/5 Trump, essentially map A but with Jones and Maloney being shored up further.

Katko went from 60.6% in 2016 to 52.6% in 2018 to 53.1% in 2020.   The days of him outperforming the top of the ticket by those kind of margins are long gone.  A Biden+17 district isn't going to be winnable.

Also, there are different types of margins. A lot of the swingy or R favoring areas are removed and Ithaca isn't going to be any less D. And if they keep the Utica arm then he's probably going against Brindisi, the other overperformer - if he even runs for reelection and in that seat.