2020 New York Redistricting

[Brittain33]

Anyone guessing what NY D's might do if Balter wins, that would probably cause a crapfest especially if NY loses 2 seats.

If Balter wins and Brindisi loses, it’s easy.  Just cut up Tenney’s district and give Utica to Balter.

Well thats obvious, the question is what do D's do if both win? Moderates in the legislature will want Brindisi and liberals will want Balter, and this forgets all the parochial concerns in NYC.

Onondaga County has more than half the population of any merged district, and an even higher share of Democrats. Whatever happens, if Balter wins in 2020 she has a seat in 2022. 

[Brittain33]

It must be. The same exact thing is happening in Florida with Murphy and Crist. Reed can’t be delusional enough to think he would win.

[Brittain33]

Putting suburban Buffalo with inner-city Rochester, and suburban Rochester with both Ithaca and Oswego, is certainly original.

[Brittain33]

I haven't played around with NY yet, but is there anything that could wipe out Republicans on Long Island? A Republican vote sink on Long Island seems like a wasted opportunity with NYC so close.

Look at the results for Suozzi and Rice in 2020 - very good, but with high Republican floors. Drawing 4 Dem districts on LI is likely a dummymander.

[Brittain33]

I haven't played around with NY yet, but is there anything that could wipe out Republicans on Long Island? A Republican vote sink on Long Island seems like a wasted opportunity with NYC so close.

Look at the results for Suozzi and Rice in 2020 - very good, but with high Republican floors. Drawing 4 Dem districts on LI is likely a dummymander.

My thought was that there are wasted votes in NYC. Pull the Long Island districts into NYC. Use tentacles if necessary. Basically, some bacon strips going East/West. If one has to go into Manhattan, so be it.

NY-1 and NY-2 were both more than 47% Biden as is right now, and the area isn't getting better for Republicans....is that really needed?  I think maybe just draw plain districts in Long Island and let the natural trend take care of the rest.   The GOP might hold on in 2022 but later in the decade they'll be almost guaranteed to flip at some point.

NY-11 is a different story - Gerrymander the hell out of it.

I have been waiting for Long Island to “flip” Democratic since the 1990s. It always swings back and forth. I wouldn’t count on demographic destiny there.

[Brittain33]

The argument is that Buffalo and Rochester together can support 3 seats for Dems. Is that possible with your map? Your Buffalo district looks pretty blue.

[Brittain33]

You’re right, I was misremembering how Wasserman did it and the third district does go east to Syracuse. Here’s the tweet.

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1424841034316517388?s=21

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1427389029562077188
Thoughts on this map?

This map is wonderful.

You wouldn't say that if it was Republican doing the same thing. This map is horrible and should be illegal. No party should be allowed to do this.

We need maps like this to elect Democratic representatives who will make gerrymandering illegal through federal legislation.

[Brittain33]

If Malliotakis' district stretches to Park Slope, she has to temper her pro-cop language...........

If she loses, SI will want to secede. They won't accept a Max Rose/Eric Adams reign.............they will want to leave the city altogether

...how would leaving the city change who represents them in Congress?

[Brittain33]

New face, old tactics.

This is a change from how Cuomo approached things.

[Brittain33]

Cool, what the state really needed was a district combining Monsey and New Square with the Thousand Islands

[Brittain33]

Are those the rules for the commission, or for any districts drawn? I assume gerrymanders assume the legislature ignores the commission with a supermajority vote.

[Brittain33]

Well, it will be interesting if Dems go for the 23-3 and someone challenges on the "favoring one party" rule. That would seem to have potential if all of the others (including compactness) will be easy to avoid.

[Brittain33]

My money is on NY Dems going the TX Republican route, i.e. drawing something which is both unnecessarily ugly and less effective as a gerrymander than maps people have already drawn on Twitter.

[Brittain33]

Are there any examples where a Democratic court has fixed a Democratic gerrymander? We have a number of cases where a Dem court fixed a Republican gerrymander, and we know it’s unlikely a Republican court would fix a Republican gerrymander. It seems like Oregon was an example of a Dem court declining to fix a gerrymander.

This doesn’t mean NY won’t be different, but I don’t know if it’s happened.

[Brittain33]

A court holding that the "unduly favors" language in the NYS Constitution is to be applied on a national basis would be well, novel. The Dem Florida Supreme Court I believe did tank the Pubmander there applying those words.

In the Florida thread, I thought those words would preclude the Tampa CD going to St. Pete. and chopping it to grab the black hoods.

I thought this was the key language in the Amendment that led to revisions: “where feasible must make use of existing city, county and geographical boundaries”

[Brittain33]

TBH I think I'm on team 22-4 now. Katko overperforms by enough that in a 23-3 map he probably wins a district for the first half of the decade, at least, diminishing its utility. As long as the end result will be 22-4 either way, might as well make it not ugly as sin.

I agree. One on LI, one in the North Country, two in Central and Western to soak up the rest. 22-4 is appropriate as long as the federal government tolerates gerrymandering.

[Brittain33]

Does Joe Szymanski have reliable sources? I thought he was one step above a laser-eyed Toomey stan.

[Brittain33]

Considering how competitive on paper Dem-held districts like NY-3, -4, -18, and -19 are now, it's not hard to see 4 competitive districts that have strong D incumbents. Reducing LI to one R district is going to produce competitive districts alongside.

[Brittain33]

This isn’t about New York redistricting, but it indicates perhaps some inflation in Szymanski’s optimism.

https://twitter.com/josephszymanski/status/1481029288367312896?s=21

[Brittain33]

Holy sh!t, the Dems did NOT come to play with that memo

It only took two decades but Democrats have finally gotten good at the game pioneered by Tom Delay.

[Brittain33]

I guess the Dems assume the NYS high court is hack city, and the NYS Constitutional  provision that maps should not unduly favor one party is a dead letter. They are also assuming that the Dems in the state senate other than the false flag Simcha Felder perhaps, will vote unanimously for the map.

It becomes ever more clear to me that humans should not draw maps. The species is just too flawed to handle it. Black boxes should based on tight algorithms.

I'm hoping that the experience of IL and, perhaps, NY will lead more Republicans to the same conclusion.

[Brittain33]

What's wrong with Staten Island into Manhattan? There's both historical precedent and a heavily used ferry.

[Brittain33]

Is there a map?

No, just descriptions of counties, towns, and precincts that individuals are putting into DRA and posting on Twitter.

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/EvanPerc_/status/1487895839909494788?s=20&t=kKVGtkGrwC89...