2020 New York Redistricting
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Author Topic: 2020 New York Redistricting  (Read 102813 times)
Torie
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« Reply #675 on: January 30, 2022, 04:21:55 PM »
Well I guess the legislature is confident the high court is packed with hacks. We shall see. That map really does give the finger to the NYS law. 
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Brittain33
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« Reply #676 on: January 30, 2022, 04:23:10 PM »
They brought back Ben Gilman's Rockland-Catskills district which was dissolved in 2002.
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S019
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« Reply #677 on: January 30, 2022, 04:29:53 PM »

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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #678 on: January 30, 2022, 04:32:12 PM »
Quote from: Sestak on January 30, 2022, 04:14:41 PM

what the actual fyck is that second Republican district. We've had hundreds of drafts posted by people in this thread that give Dems one more seat than this and are cleaner!

Precisely.

There are definitely too many Republican seats in this map. We have seen Democratic gerrymanders in this thread, and this is nothing like those, which implies that this map is in effect a Republican gerrymander. Remember, Democrats have won 100% of the statewide elections in the past x years in New York, and consequently are entitled to 100% of the seats in a fair map. So hopefully the NY Supreme Court throws this Republican gerrymander out which unduly favors the GOP and replaces it with a proper map with fewer Republican seats and which gives the Democrats their rightful due.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #679 on: January 30, 2022, 04:34:27 PM »
Quote from: 👁️👁️ on January 30, 2022, 04:32:12 PM
Quote from: Sestak on January 30, 2022, 04:14:41 PM

what the actual fyck is that second Republican district. We've had hundreds of drafts posted by people in this thread that give Dems one more seat than this and are cleaner!
Remember, Democrats have won 100% of the statewide elections in the past x years in New York, and consequently are entitled to 100% of the seats in a fair map.

It still is hilarious the OHGOP tried to use that justification.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #680 on: January 30, 2022, 04:38:35 PM »
Oh, NY-11 has park slope census tracks.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #681 on: January 30, 2022, 04:38:54 PM »
Tenney's probably going to have to carpetbag into Reed's seat if she wants to stay in congress.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #682 on: January 30, 2022, 04:39:22 PM »


Call me crazy but I think he could have held it for one more term.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #683 on: January 30, 2022, 04:40:10 PM »
Maloney's district is only like Biden +8. I would probably cry with laughter if DCCC chair went down.

NY-11 is still somewhat of a question mark. What's the bluest district that Malliotakis could survive in?
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leecannon
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« Reply #684 on: January 30, 2022, 04:44:28 PM »
This whole trying to piece it together feels like a national treasure movie
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #685 on: January 30, 2022, 04:45:14 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on January 30, 2022, 04:38:35 PM
Oh, NY-11 has park slope census tracks.

Good.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #686 on: January 30, 2022, 04:45:52 PM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on January 30, 2022, 04:39:22 PM


Call me crazy but I think he could have held it for one more term.

The earlier version proposed by the D side of the commission was even more aggressive, almost a Dem pack around the region. His retirement is the reason why this seat isn't Biden+20somthing.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #687 on: January 30, 2022, 04:48:07 PM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on January 30, 2022, 04:40:10 PM
Maloney's district is only like Biden +8. I would probably cry with laughter if DCCC chair went down.

NY-11 is still somewhat of a question mark. What's the bluest district that Malliotakis could survive in?

The depends entirely on if you are talking just about 2022 or about the rest of the decade. As long as it is a Biden seat, she will lose probably in 2024, but if it is a weak-kneed one she can probably win in 2022. There is really no reason it should be less than 60% Dem/Biden or so.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #688 on: January 30, 2022, 04:50:04 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on January 30, 2022, 04:38:35 PM
Oh, NY-11 has park slope census tracks.

Park Slope is going to LOVE Nicole M.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #689 on: January 30, 2022, 04:50:23 PM »


NY-19 is definitely vulnerable with a candidate as good as Molinaro. NY-17 is worth watching with the rapid growth of the Orthodox Jewish population.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #690 on: January 30, 2022, 04:50:28 PM »
Quote from: 👁️👁️ on January 30, 2022, 04:48:07 PM
Quote from: Roll Roons on January 30, 2022, 04:40:10 PM
Maloney's district is only like Biden +8. I would probably cry with laughter if DCCC chair went down.

NY-11 is still somewhat of a question mark. What's the bluest district that Malliotakis could survive in?

The depends entirely on if you are talking just about 2022 or about the rest of the decade. As long as it is a Biden seat, she will lose probably in 2024, but if it is a weak-kneed one she can probably win in 2022. There is really no reason it should be less than 60% Dem/Biden or so.

Biden + 18 seems to be the max you can get without doing something crazy.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #691 on: January 30, 2022, 04:52:14 PM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on January 30, 2022, 04:50:23 PM


NY-19 is definitely vulnerable with a candidate as good as Molinaro. NY-17 is worth watching with the rapid growth of the Orthodox Jewish population.

Nah, Molinaro is screwed.  He might as well drop out at this point tbh.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #692 on: January 30, 2022, 04:53:22 PM »
Quote from: The Democratic Party Left Me on January 30, 2022, 04:52:14 PM
Quote from: Roll Roons on January 30, 2022, 04:50:23 PM


NY-19 is definitely vulnerable with a candidate as good as Molinaro. NY-17 is worth watching with the rapid growth of the Orthodox Jewish population.

Nah, Molinaro is screwed.  He might as well drop out at this point tbh.

Biden +9 is not safe in an environment like this.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #693 on: January 30, 2022, 04:54:17 PM »
Big yikes for them if this is true:
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lfromnj
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« Reply #694 on: January 30, 2022, 04:55:45 PM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on January 30, 2022, 04:50:23 PM


NY-19 is definitely vulnerable with a candidate as good as Molinaro. NY-17 is worth watching with the rapid growth of the Orthodox Jewish population.
Jones has good relation with the Orthodox Jews and the local GOP doesn't have the best relation.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #695 on: January 30, 2022, 04:55:48 PM »
I guess it depends on what backfiring means. If it means they lose 1 of the seats, then... they're no worse than if they drew 3-1.

There's some red-laser-eyes-needing-to-be-the-winner-in-all-scenarios cope going on with that one.
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Pink Panther
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« Reply #696 on: January 30, 2022, 04:57:26 PM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on January 30, 2022, 04:54:17 PM
Big yikes for them if this is true:

They must be drawing these districts into deep blue NYC territory if they have the balls to draw 4 LI seats.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #697 on: January 30, 2022, 04:58:52 PM »
« Edited: January 30, 2022, 05:05:42 PM by Oryxslayer »




Almost exactly what the NYPost reported. And very dem, close to Biden+12 methinks.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #698 on: January 30, 2022, 04:59:02 PM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on January 30, 2022, 04:40:10 PM
Maloney's district is only like Biden +8. I would probably cry with laughter if DCCC chair went down.

NY-11 is still somewhat of a question mark. What's the bluest district that Malliotakis could survive in?

Maloney should probably be OK given that he can raise as much money as he wants and he survived 2014 in a worse district.
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leecannon
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« Reply #699 on: January 30, 2022, 04:59:30 PM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on January 30, 2022, 04:54:17 PM
Big yikes for them if this is true:


If I read right they put Nassau and The Bronx in one, so never say never
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