2020 New York Redistricting

[lfromnj]

I dont think long island 2 and 3 should be split vertically. Split them north and south shore.
Very different cultures

[lfromnj]

Is there any valid reason why NY Dems wouldn't link Syracuse with Ithaca?  I'm not really seeing this as difficult or ugly.   It actually works out nice and gives a Utica district kinda sorta similar to the current NY-22.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/b248e051-4d27-44b1-9bcc-faa6287d4382

This map only really has 3 safe R seats,  although in practice Elise Stefanik would be safe anyway.

Unless you cut a seat in NYC you will need to push everyone else north, so Delgado would need Ithaca and Binghamton,rather you throw Katko against Brindisi .

[lfromnj]

Oh don't forget to give the Buffalo seat Niagara, Otherwise it could flip in a R wave.

[lfromnj]

Heres my upstate NY D protection map with 25 seats
Blue = Buffalo seat same as before Likely/Safe D  although trending R moderately.
Green = Chris Collins old seat and is Titanium R now.
Purple = Rochestor seat and should be likely D. Took an arm out to Geneva just keep it relatively safe.
Red = tom reeds new seat and should be Safe R. Central NY sink.
Yellow = 3 whole counties + precints in Oswego. I think Clinton won it very narrowly as she won those 3 counties. Combines Brindisi and Katko. Tossup. Probably the toughest fight for Democrats.
Brown = Stefanik sink.
Then Blue Albany Likely/Safe D.
Turqoise is Delgado getting pushed around a bit for what I think is a Clinton seat, he should be much more shored up here with Ithaca.( tilt D without Delgado but Lean/likely with him)
Light blue = Maloney's seat(Lean D without Maloney, likely D with him)
Pink is whoever replaced Lowey. Safe D

So anyway the biggest risk is Brindisi who actually gets a much better seat but now has to face a very tough opponent.

[lfromnj]

Fixed the Oswego arm which is super ugly to just a normal county/town split of Auburn.

Clinton won the 3 whole counties by 2500 votes so she probably won the district by 3k votes? About a 1 point win so still very narrow.

[lfromnj]

If New York loses only one district, I think NY-27 (Chris Jacobs) will be the district eliminated.

If New York loses two districts, I'd expect three targets. Jacobs and Jamal Bowman would probably get their seats eliminated, with AOC also being drawn out of her district (though she'd still have a district to represent, if she wants it, it just likely would be territory that might not be winnable for her).

I don't think the legislature would bother with Bowman or AOC if New York only loses one seat (though they might target AOC in the sense that they'll draw her out of her district, but still give her a seat to run in, that's unwinnable for her)

How exactly do you propose cutting up NY 27 without  giving the most red territory in NY to either  Buffalo or Rochester?

[lfromnj]

Anyone guessing what NY D's might do if Balter wins, that would probably cause a crapfest especially if NY loses 2 seats.

[lfromnj]

Anyone guessing what NY D's might do if Balter wins, that would probably cause a crapfest especially if NY loses 2 seats.

If Balter wins and Brindisi loses, it’s easy.  Just cut up Tenney’s district and give Utica to Balter.

Well thats obvious, the question is what do D's do if both win? Moderates in the legislature will want Brindisi and liberals will want Balter, and this forgets all the parochial concerns in NYC.

[lfromnj]

If NY loses 2 or even the expected 1, Biden should appoint some NYC dem to admin, AOC/Velaquez makes the most sense atleast from a redistricting perspective as they aren't VRA seats and they aren't Manhattan(which gets 3 seats for 2 seats worth of pop)

AOC almost certainly doesn't get through a GOP senate so it would have to be Velazquez I guess unless GA runoffs go D.

[lfromnj]

Anyway this 25 seat map dismantles Velazquez's seat while I think still leaving everyone else their seats other than Brindisi.
Its honestly easier for D's to draw with 25 seats rather than 26. 26 pisses of everyone in NYC basically while 25 just means one has to go. The fair option would be to just cut a Manhattan seat but that isn't happening even though its literally 2 seats of pop but somehow getting 3 representatives





https://davesredistricting.org/join/fbff239f-ca3b-4ad1-8539-3822765d82ca

A lot depends on Mondaire Jones/Ritchie Torres willing to give up a bit of Westchester to Maloney IMO. Also Biden really needs to appoint Velazquez to somewhere as she really is the only seat that can be cut IMO from NYC other than AOC.

2 R leaning seats are flipped to D pvi's, I did what I could with NY01 and NY02 to make one super GOP district and one swing district with a D+2 PVI.
Suozzi is shored up a touch and Rice goes into NYC a bit.
Staten Island is made Safe D at 63% D composite and the Brooklyn part seems inelastic white hipsters.

Shores up Maloney/Delgado by giving  bit of Westchester to the former and Giving Delgado Broome/Tompkins, both have a d+2 PVI, not the greatest but you take what you can get.

Brindisi(I think he wins, gets placed with Katko, don't really know how to help Brindisi more, I guess I could remove the red parts of Onondonga county and give Oswego which he represented more of?)
The 3 counties in this district voted for Clinton by 3000 so maybe Trump won this by a hundred votes?

Rochester/Buffalo get their basically Safe D seats, I removed some red parts of Monroe and took swingier parts in another county though and Buffalo keeps Niagara.


This map would still be quite hard to pass with only a bare 2/3 super majority IMO, they really don't have much to work with, and it really does require cutting an NYC seat to do properly.

Overall 16 Safe D ,3 Lean/Likely D(Delgado/Maloney/Suozzi), 2 tossups(NY02/Brindisi-Katko), and 4 Safe R.
If 2022 isn't a R wave D's could still keep 21 seats and R's would be losing 3 seats.



26 seats is actually much harder to work with, with 26 seats you still keep upstate about the same with NY 22 being the cut seat but the problem is NYC still keeps its seats but Torres/Jones/AOC get pushed pretty far north which could really cause problems

[lfromnj]

Cracking buffalo is an absurd risk. NY 22 was actually less blue than NY 27th was red in 2016.  I think they swapped a bit but its still an extremely stupid idea as 2 buffalo districts combined would be Trump +10 in2016.  Dems should keep their nice clean Safe D seats in Buffalo/Rochester/Albany,none of them are really sinks but they form Safe D areas or atleast almost Safe .

[lfromnj]

3) Crack Buffalo a bit, Higgins is well entrenched and could survive a less blue district.

It seems like it's maybe possible to get two nominally-D WNY seats... I was able to do it in a way that wasn't too ugly by putting Niagara, Orleans, and Genesee in one seat, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Wyoming, and most of Allegany in the other. The first seat included Buffalo west of Main, the South Campus of UB, the Northtowns due east of Grand Island, Lancaster, and Alden, and the second included the remainder. The problem is that both seats average a margin of 0.20% for Dem over Rep according to the DRA's composite score. That doesn't seem safe enough, incumbency aside.

I would rather be aggressive and risk bigger losses in a bad year but be able to offset the GOP's gerrymanders coming in FL, TX, GA.

You don’t want to create a dummymander.  Dems goal should be to make their current seats safe (shoring up Delgado, SPM, and Suozzi), make the SI district Dem, and make sure it is Republican seats that get eliminated.  Buffalo and Rochester should remain compact districts that are safe Dem.

Also don't forget regarding NY01/NY02 to make a swing as possible seat from those 2 if you aren't going to bacon strip Long island using NYC but yes the Buffalo/Rochester/Albany seats really shouldn't be touched with too much.

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/25edb0f1-16fc-4b6b-8b60-134974e8c594
Thoughts on (particularly) Upstate in this map?

Silly to give Rochester Ithaca. Just make an Ontario + most of Monroe district besides the NW part. Give Delgado Ithaca.

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/25edb0f1-16fc-4b6b-8b60-134974e8c594
Thoughts on (particularly) Upstate in this map?

Silly to give Rochester Ithaca. Just make an Ontario + most of Monroe district besides the NW part. Give Delgado Ithaca.

I'm not saying it's a particularly excellent map, but its #1 purpose was to see what the map would look like IF rochester-ithaca took place, which allows for the creation of a D+8 seat as opposed to a D+6 one composed of Monroe+Orleans.
Since this would in fact also result in an additional county split I don't favor personally any variant of the map not including such a district.

This is D+7.4. Wasting Ithaca to just slightly shore up a district that is mostly safe is stupid when Delgado could use it a lot more. This is about where I would say a more elastic district is at its perfect range where it will go D 95% of the time but very few votes are wasted.

[lfromnj]

The problem is you have given everyone and their mother a swingish D leaning seat in upstate NY and very few incumbents will want that. Upstate NY is also fairly elastic overall .

[lfromnj]

What happens if you create 3 safe R seats upstate instead of 2?

You can lock in a fairly Likely map with only Katko's seat being a weird mix. The reason to give Katko Oneida is for the simple reason for hoping that he gets primaried out by Tenney especially after impeaching Trump. Also people really need to take into account for incumbent homes.

[lfromnj]

What happens if you create 3 safe R seats upstate instead of 2?

You can lock in a fairly Likely map with only Katko's seat being a weird mix. The reason to give Katko Oneida is for the simple reason for hoping that he gets primaried out by Tenney especially after impeaching Trump. Also people really need to take into account for incumbent homes.

What would such a map look like?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=352854.msg7433988#msg7433988

This post should have most of it, although my newer Rochester District is the most efficient version.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1389520186147999744
Yeah my guess is they want to scare these NY D's before redistricting. Probably correct for upstate as that area is notoriously swingy and the Rochester/Buffalo/Albany seats are just about the right level of Safe. Maybe a few points too D but not that an extreme amount to spare. However with Long island one just has to mash NY01/NY02 for a lean to Likely D seat.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1389781258650193923

Even if NY Dems were to draw a map similar to this, it would be incredibly stupid and hilarious if they tried to place Tenney against Stefanik where she certainly lose, instead of Katko.

[lfromnj]

New York more than any other state really needs the exact Census numbers. The Estimates are already wildly off and the thing is there's a pretty small bottleneck at the Bronx/WestChester.

With current estimates and 26 seats D's will obviously try to protect all their NYC seats and flip NY 11 and one of NY01/NY02. Issue with current estimates though is that each seat moves a bit. By the time one reaches AOC the seat looks quite a bit different and Bowmaan's seat gets shoved out of the Bronx entirely. Then it gets really awkward with SPM/Delgado/Jones. Now obviously the estimates were off so there's a very good chance that the city grew and the first 16 districts look pretty much the same. However if the estimates were off evenly across the state then the awkwardness remains.

I was 50/50 on what NY would have earlier(25 or 26 based on estimates) but I usually drew 25 because that works so much cleaner as at that point Democrats just have to cut an NYC seat but every other incumbent would be happy in downstate. It was much more awkward to work with 26.

[lfromnj]

I haven't played around with NY yet, but is there anything that could wipe out Republicans on Long Island? A Republican vote sink on Long Island seems like a wasted opportunity with NYC so close.

Look at the results for Suozzi and Rice in 2020 - very good, but with high Republican floors. Drawing 4 Dem districts on LI is likely a dummymander.

My thought was that there are wasted votes in NYC. Pull the Long Island districts into NYC. Use tentacles if necessary. Basically, some bacon strips going East/West. If one has to go into Manhattan, so be it.

NY-1 and NY-2 were both more than 47% Biden as is right now, and the area isn't getting better for Republicans....is that really needed?  I think maybe just draw plain districts in Long Island and let the natural trend take care of the rest.   The GOP might hold on in 2022 but later in the decade they'll be almost guaranteed to flip at some point.

NY-11 is a different story - Gerrymander the hell out of it.

Did you forget both of them voted for Obama in 2012 ?

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/def9849f-8276-4080-960a-057bda5660bb

This my attempt so far and this is what I got

Suprisingly central NY is prolly the hardest part as geography is pretty weird

Tonko is from Montgomery county.

[lfromnj]

Yeah the thing is about Williamsburg , is that literally nobody besides AOC who is all the way in the Bronx actually wants those Crane Husband progressives so you might as well dump him with Staten Island.

[lfromnj]

Yeah the thing is about Williamsburg , is that literally nobody besides AOC who is all the way in the Bronx actually wants those Crane Husband progressives so you might as well dump him with Staten Island.

Is it possible to dump most of Williamsburg in NY-11?

Probably not as far as there, mostly to Dumbo. Nadler and Maloney still need to expand out so Manhattan can keep 3 districts.  But the point stands, just let these annoying progressive primary voters have a district where they control the dem primary rather than keep giving scares to everyone.

IIRC Staten Island Dems do want Coney Island and areas where it makes more D but still winnable in the primary for a Staten Island Dem. However the issue is their concerns are the weakest as the weakest borough.

[lfromnj]

Yeah the thing is about Williamsburg , is that literally nobody besides AOC who is all the way in the Bronx actually wants those Crane Husband progressives so you might as well dump him with Staten Island.

Is it possible to dump most of Williamsburg in NY-11?

Probably not as far as there, mostly to Dumbo. Nadler and Maloney still need to expand out so Manhattan can keep 3 districts.  But the point stands, just let these annoying progressive primary voters have a district where they control the dem primary rather than keep giving scares to everyone.

I dunno if Maloney wants her seat to expand even more outside Manhattan. If anything, any further movement outside of Manhattan could sink her in a future primary.
She needs more of Manhattan, not less.

I didn't mean more of outside of Manhattan but if you draw it all the way to Williamsburg you block any expansion down South and East. Can really only go to Park Slope.

The other question is who to give the Orthodox to. Nadler can take some and I guess Jeffries can take the rest.