2020 New York Redistricting

[ProgressiveModerate]

LI political geography is surprisingly hard to work with the way voters are distributed and the fact it’s a Long Island. The far end of the island tends to lean D, and obviously as you get closer to the city it becomes very D, but inbetween in most of Suffolk county, the D areas are like smack dab in the center creating a challenge for Ds.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My Long Island map

Districts D +9, +12, +12, and +13

Honestly that's one of the best LI maps I've seen in terms opf gerrymandering while making it look clean. Like how you put that strip of blue down the middle into NY-1 and bacon-stripped the others; quite effective.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Since the Rs are going to push the VRA, Dems should as well. Push some of Queens, Brooklyn into LI districts and look into the idea of bacon stripping NY-1, NY-2 and getting BOTH seats instead of packing the GOP into a very red 2nd. Dems have a better chance at 23-3 this way than against Katko who isn't losing with a Dem President.

That's pretty hard unless you want to knock out a black VRA seat that can objectively be drawn (current NY-5). Otherwise a bacon stripping would result in just a bunch of Biden + 3ish seats, some of which may have gone for Trump in 2016 adn would be unreliable at best.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Are those the rules for the commission, or for any districts drawn? I assume gerrymanders assume the legislature ignores the commission with a supermajority vote.

I asked the same question to myself, and they appear to be the law, that all must follow, until such time as the Constitution is changed. There was talk of that, but I think that is by the boards now due to covid, resignation and the general chaos that is out there in the Empire State.

Drawing illegal maps, or very probably illegal maps, or assuming somewhat partisan courts are the functional equivalent of Jim Jordon, or Cori Bush, or even MTG being the one person court, seems all the rage, both here and on RRH. Resistance is futile. I have basically given up. I just get attacked as a clueless dirt bag attorney just lawyering it up and sh*t posting.

The Florida redistricting amendment has these same rules but it doesn’t look like that will stop Republicans from passing a gerrymander there, does it?

That's the thing, a lot of states have these rules that are really pretty vauge and don't mean much. What is a "compact district"? What is considered drawn with "partisan intent"? If they had some objective metrics that'd be one thing, but because there aren't a lot of these because easily ignored guidlines.

Both sides are always going to be able to make an argument to either defend or protect a map, and as long as there's no logical system, those benchmarks hold. Dems could draw a gerrymander where the median seat is in line with the state's partisanship and say that's fair. Republicans could argue that because they win about 35-40% of the vote in NY in your average election they deserve that % of seats. Both those arguments are pretty BS for different reasons but who's to say they're wrong?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Tried a map of upstate NY. This is on that weird 2012/16 Pres composite data, but overall Biden did in between Obama and Clinton in upstate NY so it probably more or less cancels out. The hardest part was probably as you got closer to the city because the political geography gets really weird, hence why district 9 has the weird little tail. There's really no reason Dems can't go 23-3 (1 R seat in LI)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Tried a map of upstate NY. This is on that weird 2012/16 Pres composite data, but overall Biden did in between Obama and Clinton in upstate NY so it probably more or less cancels out. The hardest part was probably as you got closer to the city because the political geography gets really weird, hence why district 9 has the weird little tail. There's really no reason Dems can't go 23-3 (1 R seat in LI)

GOP loses 5 seats on that map right?  Wish we could get rid of Stefanik from the delegation but netting that many seats is nice.

An R seat would be cut, let's call that NY-27, NY-23, NY-22, NY-1, and NY-11 are all flipped to Dems, NY-19 becomes safer for Dems, and Katko gets a harder NY-24

[ProgressiveModerate]

Tried a map of upstate NY. This is on that weird 2012/16 Pres composite data, but overall Biden did in between Obama and Clinton in upstate NY so it probably more or less cancels out. The hardest part was probably as you got closer to the city because the political geography gets really weird, hence why district 9 has the weird little tail. There's really no reason Dems can't go 23-3 (1 R seat in LI)

GOP loses 5 seats on that map right?  Wish we could get rid of Stefanik from the delegation but netting that many seats is nice.

An R seat would be cut, let's call that NY-27, NY-23, NY-22, NY-1, and NY-11 are all flipped to Dems, NY-19 becomes safer for Dems, and Katko gets a harder NY-24

This seems like a no brainer.  If Dems don't do this + extreme gerrymandering in IL + MD + NM + press the commissions/courts in places like CA/VA/CO then they deserve to lose the house.

I kinda hope both sides will somehow find a way to mutally agree not to do extreme gerrymanders, but stuff sorta like the IN map

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seriously f NY for having such bad election systems even the data is hard to gather. The one thing I will say is NY prolly has some of the nicest precincts, especially upstate.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/def9849f-8276-4080-960a-057bda5660bb

This my attempt so far and this is what I got

Suprisingly central NY is prolly the hardest part as geography is pretty weird

[ProgressiveModerate]

Are there any examples where a Democratic court has fixed a Democratic gerrymander? We have a number of cases where a Dem court fixed a Republican gerrymander, and we know it’s unlikely a Republican court would fix a Republican gerrymander. It seems like Oregon was an example of a Dem court declining to fix a gerrymander.

This doesn’t mean NY won’t be different, but I don’t know if it’s happened.

Most states do not have the "unduly favor" proscription in their state constitution that constrains what the legislature can draw.  It seems to have constrained some what the Dems, some of whom are Dem legislative appointments, on the NYS redistricting commission are doing. Frankly, I don't think the pundits, including those at 538, and including the NYS governor are mouthing, are either familiar or have seriously  grappled with this issue. It's all been dumbed down.

As someone else has pointed out earlier in the thread, that is a pretty vague requirement open to interpretation. Maybe for instance a Dem bias, at least on the Congressional is what's fair because the Republican bias elsewhere needs to be cancelled out on the national level, and if NY doesn't gerrymander the overall picture is unfair. There def is a chance both FL and NY SC overturn gerrymanders likely to be done, but I'd be surprised at best.

I would argue that in FL there's prolly gonna be a stronger case because there's a greater chance a gerrymander will actually mess with COIs racially, though the FL SC def leans right whereas unless Dems mess with Long Island too much, that shouldn't be an issue with an NY gerry. Heck, Dems could even include a opportunity district that connects the black parts of Buffalo and Rochester as part of their gerrymander, call it a "Minority Opportunity" seat, and the rest of the map falls into place from that.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't think 23-3 is very realistic at this point. The Democrats might be apprehensive to draw such a radical gerrymander given the commission and all the safeguards against it. Not to mention the possibility of a huge dummymander in 2022.

When I was drawing my 23-3 map, my goal was to ensure each district was Biden +10 in Upstate NY. That in itself was difficult. But now it seems that most Biden +10 seats would be marginal in Upstate NY, given the horrible approvals Biden has among White voters without a degree. I think 21-5 would easily be fine however, and probably 22-4.

I personally find dealing with Long Island is the hardest problem, especially since the politics are weird and Dem voters on the island tend to be packed while making a true R pack is nearly impossible. 2 R sinks in upstate with everything else being at least Biden + 15 seems pretty realistic; Dems goal in redistricting should be to get as many reliable seats in a D + 0 environment, not an R + 8 in which case the House is going to be a lost cause anyways. Even in 2022 I would think most Biden + 15 seats would hold except for the one Katko runs in.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1e7ccc24-4f4b-45be-9f1f-95a4328c45b3

Tried my hand at a full 23-3 NY map. All districts except 24 are Biden + 10 or greater (NY-24 comes in at Biden + 9.5). I tried to make it relatively compact considering the severity of the gerrymander.

NY-01 can't be made into an effective D seat without a snake, because of weird LI political geography.

I tried to make NYC fair from a VRA standpoint but that wasn't my focus and some VRA issues can be solved without touching any of the more marginal seats outside the city.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Personally I don't expect a 23-3 map; it requires a lot of messing around with NY-25 and NY-26 and a lot of ugly lines which I can't see the entire caucus agreeing to. A 22-4 map, on the other hand, is very feasible and is probably what I'd bet on, since weird lines need to be drawn in the east for good incumbent protection anyway and two flips downstate don't really disadvantage any incumbents. Here's what I hope the map might look like:






(I know more about NY than PA, but still not that much, so it's possible I've done something very wrong here. Also don't pay too much attention to the NYC lines, I attempted to keep the districts basically similar but it's very possible that I double bunked incumbents or something. All the upstate Democrats definitely live in their districts though.)

Anyways, this map was drawn to mostly minimize county and town chops, except in Long Island, where the lack of political geography makes that basically impossible. Rochester and Buffalo get their own Safe D seats in exchange for an additional R pack upstate. All blue districts are Biden+10 or more: the least blue district is Delgado's new (and substantially changed, it now goes from his home in Rhinebeck out to Binghamton) 19th at Biden+10.2. Malliotakis is probably doomed in her new Biden+13 seat that goes up to Cobble Hill, and the new Biden+11 NY-01 should be an layup in most years for the Democrats. Katko's NY-24 gets fed all of Tompkins to make the district Biden+15; if he still wins, especially with Trump doing his utmost to keep him from doing so, he's honestly earned the seat. Other districts of note are Sean Patrick Maloney's NY-18, which goes from his home in Cold Spring up to take in the city of Albany and Paul Tonko's NY-20, which takes in much of the rest of Albany County and goes up to his home in Amsterdam and all the way up to Plattsburgh.

Thoughts?

That 3rd is a district I don't think I've ever seen drawn before.
What would be the dominant demographics in it? (especially within the White population)

Good map.

As you kind brought up no D Gerry of Long Island will be clean, but it’d argue an R “vote sink” would be most effective being on the southern side of Long Island rather than the northern side.

Your NYC config is really good though; mine is pretty simillar. Same goes for central NY configuration.

However as for Buffalo and Rochester, I’d argue at that point you’re actually packing Democrats more than you are Republicans, especially in Buffalo. While this may not ultimately happen as they dong have many votes to spare in the state senate, I think creating 4 D districts between Buffalo, Rochester, Ithaca, Utica, and Syracuse can be done, with only the snake between Buffalo and Rochester looking ugly. Other “cleaner” option could be split Buffalo to make a Safe D Buffalo district and a swingy one based in Niagara County

[ProgressiveModerate]

Updated 23-3 NY D gerrymander. Tried to clean it up a bit, make NYC a bit more VRA safe, and shore up some more marginal districts

[ProgressiveModerate]

Always remember: Pigs get fat. Hogs get slaughtered. Especially when there are rules in the NYS constitution barring partisan Gerrymandering.

A lot of states have "anti-gerrymandering" clauses in their constitution.

Like most of these other states, the NYS constitution specifies no objective metrics and the NYSC leans left.

It's not impossible a gerrymandered map is overturned, but it's probably have to be really egregious. I could see state legistlative maps being overturned more easily though as more things could go wrong with VRA/COIs and also there's a bit less pressure on the justices as a NYS CD case could ultimately decide the House control

[ProgressiveModerate]

Always remember: Pigs get fat. Hogs get slaughtered. Especially when there are rules in the NYS constitution barring partisan Gerrymandering.

A lot of states have "anti-gerrymandering" clauses in their constitution.

Like most of these other states, the NYS constitution specifies no objective metrics and the NYSC leans left.

It's not impossible a gerrymandered map is overturned, but it's probably have to be really egregious. I could see state legistlative maps being overturned more easily though as more things could go wrong with VRA/COIs and also there's a bit less pressure on the justices as a NYS CD case could ultimately decide the House control

These proposed 26-0, 25-1, 24-2, 23-3 and probably even 22-4 maps won't pass muster with any court, especially if the map looks like the nonsense posted here. As Torie has repatedly said, courts can be hacks, but they can't be total hacks - especially when what they do sets precedents for the future.

23-3 can be done without looking absolutely ergregious but anything more ye.

From the perspective of most well educated Dems, there is a serious fear the GOP is a threat to Democracy. Therefore I have a hard time seeing left leaning SC justices overturning a map that in their eyes is a barrier to that. They won’t say it aloud but will find some reason to. They’d also prolly say in their ruling they want federal rules in redistricting and what not. They could also overturn gerrymander legislative  maps to show they’re at their core against gerrymandering.

I myself for instance don’t support gerrymandering, but in this case ah rooting for Dems to do it as a necessary evil to prevent greater tragedy. I full on condemn state lefistaltive gerrymanders and basically any other gerrymandering by either party, but this case really is beyond just gerrymandering itself inevitably .

[ProgressiveModerate]

Wouldn't Cuomo 2018 numbers be effective enough to use to predict the likely Dem Floor for 2022 outside of Katko?

Upstate, prolly not quite the floor but like than bottom quartile, but tbf Cuomo did pretty well on long Island.

Upstate is weird in the sense that districts like NY-24, 22, and 18 all saw dramatic ticket-splitting in 2020 election. However, dramatic ticket splitting in both directions making it kinda tricky to gauge things. I think Biden + 12 seats should be enough to hold in most if not all years this decade, and anything over Biden + 20 should be relatively safe.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Wouldn't Cuomo 2018 numbers be effective enough to use to predict the likely Dem Floor for 2022 outside of Katko?

Upstate, prolly not quite the floor but like than bottom quartile, but tbf Cuomo did pretty well on long Island.

Upstate is weird in the sense that districts like NY-24, 22, and 18 all saw dramatic ticket-splitting in 2020 election. However, dramatic ticket splitting in both directions making it kinda tricky to gauge things. I think Biden + 12 seats should be enough to hold in most if not all years this decade, and anything over Biden + 20 should be relatively safe.

Well yes I obviously meant Cuomo 2018 anything north of Rockland. No way are Democrats winning Staten Island or Suffolk County.

Richmond County would probably be a heavy lift.

Suffolk county Biden only barely lost though; I would say Dems have a decent shot at winning the county on the Pres level again at some point (though Rs are still favored)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Updated my NY gerrymander!







I slightly shored up a few districts upstate and tried to make NY-01 a tad safer for Dems. Also tried to focus on NYC a bit more to ensure it complied with VRA.

Overall, this map holds for every dataset on VRA except 2018 Gov where Cuomo's lackluster performance upstate, especially in Albany, cost him districts 19 and 20. This map should hold most cycles for Democrats, even if Republicans on average win one of the intended D seats it still does its job as a gerrymander. I tried to make the map not visually horrendous; only NY-01 and NY-02 have to look really ugly to make NY-01 a D-leaning seat, and 25 might become the new earmuffs district.

I tried to make all the upstate districts have a little bit of urban suburban, and rural areas in them to make them less reactive to potential political shifts down the road.

I pretty much ignored County Lines but did try to keep communities whole when possible.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/NYElectionNews/status/1476731839234691073?s=20

NY continues it's slow march towards the D-mander.

IIRC there is no constitutional process for when the commission fails to agree on a map? The redistricting amendment put up last November was supposed to establish that, but it failed. So what happens now?

I think either a 2/3rds vote in the state legislature or some judge. A judge drew their current map.

Either way, it is worth noting that a hard gerrymander is gonna be extremely difficult to pull off here. Democrats just barely have 2/3rd majority in the Senate and I'm sure some people will have parochial concerns stopping them from going all in. Worth noting before Dems on this thread get their hopes up.

Ehh, yes and no.  I think we’ll definitely get a Democratic Staten Island seat b/c most Dems don’t really care about its parochial concerns.  Long Island shouldn’t be a problem and I imagine most Long Island Dems want a Democratic house seat where they have a shot at advancing rather than getting washed away in the 2022 wave (Zeldin’s seat probably becomes Dem-leaning).  

No one from downstate is gonna care how upstate feels about being carved up and I imagine most upstate Dems are going to want House seats that give them (or their allies/patrons/etc) a shot at advancement.  

The real issue is that the ripple effects of a strong gerrymander may cause NYC/downstate folks to get cranky.  IIRC Jamaal Bowman already implied months ago that he has no intention of being a team player with this and while I doubt he has all that much pull in the legislature on his own, other NYC Dems definitely do and there’s no way he’s going to be the only problem child in the delegation with respect to redistricting.  

Also, Delgado has a top-tier A-list opponent and definitely needs to be shored up which is fine as long as it is done efficiently.

NY Gerrymandering is basically 4 seperate entities:

1. NY-11/Staten Island
2. Long Island
3. Central NY/Hudson Valley/Albany
4. Buffalo/Rochester/Syracuse/Ithaca

Firstly, as stated above, NY-11 is probably the easiest to deal with. There's not really any parochial or VRA concerns, and it generally doesn't screw around with the rest of the map too much. It's literally just making the conscious decision to attach Staten Island to a bluer part of Brooklyn than currently.

As for Long Island, I highly doubt the NY Dems will try to make both NY-1 and NY-2 blue as frankly there's no easy way to do it that isn't objectively horrendous and causes other issues. Even just making NY-1 a Biden seat isn't easy, but lucky for Dems Suozzi's retirement means they can mess around with NY-3 a bit, not that it really has votes to give, but they can push it South. It looks ugly but it doesn't cause any parochial concerns, so whether or not Dems do this is literally whether they have the votes to draw the lines in the first place.

When it comes to Buffalo/Rochester/Syracuse Dems have 2 options. Either to keep the current configuration while making NY-24 into a seat that Katko would have trouble winning in by connecting it to Ithaca rather than red Wayne County. NY-26 and 25 stay as is. The second option is to try and create 4 D seats between the 3 cities which would involve the dreaded Rochester-Buffalo snake. 26 has votes to give but 25 really doesn't, so 25 would likely be forced to become less Rochester centric and reach down into Ithaca. This really comes down to whether they have the votes to wield the pen and whether Higgins and Morelle, especially Higgins, are ok with it. It's also possible they try to do something in between I guess which makes 3 D seats based around the cities and then a swing seat with leftovers but that seems unlikely as geography makes that tricky and it'd probably end up looking even worse.

Then finally is Central NY which is probably the messiest. Unfortunately for Bowman, it's inevitable his seat is going to have to shift Northwards assuming the seat cut is a rural R seat upstate which is most likely considering all the upstate seats are severely underpopulated. While NY-20 doesn't really have many votes to give, it isn't severely underpopulated unlike most upstate seats, and all it really has to do is shift Northwards slightly to take in Glens falls while shedding Montgomery County. It could then give whichever seat ends up below it scraps of Albany. NY-19 can take in Binghamton and/or Utica since it's going to have to shift north anyways, it's really about ensuring Delgado doesn't lose Ulster County to Maloney. Then it becomes a matter of what you do with Maloney which is tricky; his seat will probably have to rotate a bit to move Northwards but also hold onto Poughkeepsie and everything South along the Hudson. This is definitely the weirdest region of the state as no one is going to be entirely happy, and just due to population shifts the seats are going to have to dramatically change anyways; there's no way to keep the current config.

But anyways, overall, I'm expecting like a 22 Biden-4 Trump map or so, with NY-11 and NY-1 becoming Biden seats and Dems shoring up upstate and cutting a rural R seat without trying to create a new D seat. 21-5 also seems pretty realistic. However, there's a good chance this map yields 6 R seats in 2022 depending upon how aggressively they shore up people like Delgado

[ProgressiveModerate]

My request is that you come up with your talking points in advance. You know what I will pounce on like a batter who sees a slow hanging curve ball drift over the middle of the plate. Otherwise the game is just not very fun.

This feels like low key bullying /s

[ProgressiveModerate]

How many seats do Dems stand to net from NY?

-Shore up their own seats
-Cut NY-1 and NY-11
-Either make Katko’s seat bluer or create a new D leaning seat upstate
-Cut rural R upstate seat

So that’s about 3 prolly

[ProgressiveModerate]

FWIW:
https://twitter.com/JosephSzymanski/status/1480675503451389953

Why not just give Malliotakis Park Slope and other hipster neighborhoods in Brooklyn? Nobody but AOC wants a place like that.

Apparently no one wants to take in red south Brooklyn, even though every other Dem could get a + 40 seat. Still possible NY-11 becomes a Biden seat, just not a solid one (if these rumors are true)

Feel like NY-11 gonna be an MD-1 2.0 sadly; hideous, ergregous, and doenst even do a very good job at gerrymandering

[ProgressiveModerate]

FWIW:
https://twitter.com/JosephSzymanski/status/1480675503451389953

So the 4 R seats would be three upstate and one in Long Island?   The four swing seats would be one in Long Island, NY-11, and two in upstate (assuming the southeastern area)?

Ye, prolly the new equivalents to NY-1, NY-11, NY-18, and NY-19. I don't blame them for a NY-1 that isn't totally safe; Long Island makes that quite tricky, but NY-11 is really a test of whether NY Dems will let incumbent demands get in the way.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I’m thinking 22-4 map, similarish to what we currently have but NY-24 becomes safer for Ds, and NY-1, NY-11 get turned into narrow Biden seats the GOP could win, and NY-18 and NY-19 get shored up as much as possible. Rural R upstate seat is inevitably going to be cut. I don’t see the Rochester-Buffalo snake and an aggressive 22-3 happening.