2020 New York Redistricting

[Sol]

Meeks could potentially also go deeper into Nassau; Hempstead and some of the nearby communities are fairly Black if there's concern about his district's demographics.

[Sol]

Something which will also matter is the new redistricting process.

This article summarizes the process:

In 2021, that commission will be created for the first time, composed of ten members -- two each appointed by the Assembly Speaker, Senate majority leader, and minority leaders in both houses; and two chosen by a majority of those eight appointed members...The law also protects against the party in power from exploiting its position. If the leaders of the two legislative chambers represent different parties, the newly drawn maps recommended by the commission must be approved by a majority vote of each house. But, if both chambers are controlled by the same party, approval would require a two-thirds majority vote. 

*

So basically if I'm understanding this correctly it'll be an Arizona-style bipartisan process with independent commissioners as tiebreakers. However, the legislature can apparently draw their own maps after voting down a few of the commission's maps--but I think this commission will probably have a bigger role than folks will think since it was passed with the agreement of leadership in both parties. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with a neat bipartisan gerrymander with each party losing a seat.



*Let me know if quoting this article is a copyright issue and I'll take it down.

[Sol]

Something which will also matter is the new redistricting process.

This article summarizes the process:

In 2021, that commission will be created for the first time, composed of ten members -- two each appointed by the Assembly Speaker, Senate majority leader, and minority leaders in both houses; and two chosen by a majority of those eight appointed members...The law also protects against the party in power from exploiting its position. If the leaders of the two legislative chambers represent different parties, the newly drawn maps recommended by the commission must be approved by a majority vote of each house. But, if both chambers are controlled by the same party, approval would require a two-thirds majority vote.  

*

So basically if I'm understanding this correctly it'll be an Arizona-style bipartisan process with independent commissioners as tiebreakers. However, the legislature can apparently draw their own maps after voting down a few of the commission's maps--but I think this commission will probably have a bigger role than folks will think since it was passed with the agreement of leadership in both parties. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with a neat bipartisan gerrymander with each party losing a seat.



*Let me know if quoting this article is a copyright issue and I'll take it down.

I have mentioned in other threads that this commission is rather toothless since the legislature can get their own maps going not that long into the process. The only real difference between this body and the ignored 'advisory' commissions many states had in 2010 was that it is inscribed in law. The problem is that the law expected the NY Senate to remain a battleground, not a chamber where democrats are 2-3 seats away from a supermajority. Those 2-3 seats which could easily fall in 11 months, a GOP retirement has already given team blue one favored pickup.

FWIW, NY politics tends to be rather corrupt with a lot of deal-making and tit-for-tat between the parties--the IDC is one of many manifestations of this phenomenon. A deep south style bargain between some Democrats and Republicans on redistricting doesn't seem impossible to me, though I don't know politics up there well enough to say for sure.

[Sol]

Another interesting question: who gets cut upstate?

Katko seems like the obvious answer; it's a little difficult considering his cult following (and the general propensity of Syracuse to elect Republicans downballot) but if you give him Ithaca it's better. Perhaps toss in Utica too so that Brindisi will get a seat even if he loses reelection.

The one complication I can foresee is the 25th district, which will have to expand. Louise Slaughter had a close shave in 2014, and the district will get more Republican if it grows. Democrats might would want to give it firmer numbers.

[Sol]

Another interesting question: who gets cut upstate?

Katko seems like the obvious answer; it's a little difficult considering his cult following (and the general propensity of Syracuse to elect Republicans downballot) but if you give him Ithaca it's better. Perhaps toss in Utica too so that Brindisi will get a seat even if he loses reelection.

The one complication I can foresee is the 25th district, which will have to expand. Louise Slaughter had a close shave in 2014, and the district will get more Republican if it grows. Democrats might would want to give it firmer numbers.

My assumption was always that sheer geography ensured NY-23 would get cut, its the only district to border both PA and Lake Ontario and its next to a bunch of seats that also have an expand.

NY-23 will probably be divided up--but it doesn't mean that Brindisi or his successor will lose.

[Sol]

How would this be for an Upstate map?   Only 4 safe R districts.  Uses 2016 pop estimates.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bf42bda7-4cd7-4a7a-a7b4-c8eac662ffd2



2012-2016 PVI's:

NY16- D+14.13
NY17- R+0.51
NY18- D+2.69
NY19- R+7.65
NY20- D+6.7
NY21- R+4.17
NY22- R+6.62
NY23- D+6.8
NY24- D+6.85
NY25- D+8.67
NY26- R+11.8

Since most of upstate north of Rockland/Westchester swung to Trump, it'd be expected most of the districts are a little more Republican than the PVI lets on. 

The main thing seems to be that uniting Tompkins with Syracuse is crucial.  NY-17 and NY-18 (southeast) would both be competitive, but probably winnable for Democrats.

Perhaps the 19th, 20th, and 21st could be rotated counterclockwise (i.e. Plattsburgh to the 20th) to give Delgado a better chance? It looks like a very clean but realistic map though!

[Sol]

Would be crazy to reach Delgado's district up to Plattsburgh.

I was actually referring to Tonko's district going up to Plattsburgh, not Delgado's. Delgado would take a chomp out of more D-leaning Albany area communities. Stefanik would take in more conservative areas in Delgado's (and Brindisi's) districts.

It is a bit of an outlandish idea though -- I might try and draw it to see if it'd work.

[Sol]

One speculative scenario: the discussion about Velazquez's district on the congressional elections board got me thinking. IIRC Much of the oddness of her district comes from a desire to put Sunset Park in the same district as Chinatown while also keeping Puerto Rican neighborhoods together--it's a bit of understandable logic for a bizarre district. Is a district along the lines of the current NY-07 likely/possible?

Additionally, will it be possible to draw two black-majority districts in Brooklyn anymore?

[Sol]

Should NY-11 extend into Sunset Park, etc., more liberal areas?

If a Staten Island Republican wins, can they hold on?

Bay Ridge is one of the last Brooklyn GOP strongholds.

Sunset Park is the obvious area to slide into to shore up Max Rose. But it's not clear to me if that'd be acceptable because of the large Latino and Chinese communities there, which might prefer Velazquez's district. There's not much else in the vicinity to really boost him up.

I know in past discussion on this topic folks have talked about the possibility of giving him a slice of lower Manhattan on account of this issue. Heck, he could take in the Sunset Park Chinese community and the Manhattan Chinatown if you want more nonconfigurational logic in redistricting.

[Sol]

Would Cuomo sign a non-GOP gerrymandered Senate map? He went with the Republicans last time.

[Sol]

New DRA doesn't let you renumber, but it does make switching the land area of two CDs much easier with the locking tool.

[Sol]

Is there any valid reason why NY Dems wouldn't link Syracuse with Ithaca?  I'm not really seeing this as difficult or ugly.   It actually works out nice and gives a Utica district kinda sorta similar to the current NY-22.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/b248e051-4d27-44b1-9bcc-faa6287d4382

This map only really has 3 safe R seats,  although in practice Elise Stefanik would be safe anyway.

FWIW it's looking increasingly likely that NY will lose two seats, not one.

[Sol]

Would a southern Brooklyn Republican seat actually elect a Republican for congress? I was under the impression that those areas were more inclined to vote for Republicans downballot, especially considering the Democratic domination of NYC.

[Sol]

I figured I'd take a shot at fairly redistricting NY with 25 districts. Here's the link.





Didn't love this Long Island, but the population shifts in this area are such that you're kind of forced to draw the 3rd district deep into NE Queens, which kind of interferes with drawing an Asian influence district in the Flushing area. IMO it's better to take the Black and Asian district deep into Nassau.



Here's the city, and another area I'm a bit uncomfortable with. Queens, Brooklyn, and Staten work well I hope--the 6th is only slightly less Latino than the current 7th, and I think the "White Gentrifiers plus Hasids district" makes a decent amount of sense. The 11th takes in predominantly Asian communities in Sunset Park and Southeast Brooklyn. But I'm not sure if the Harlem, Upper East Side, and NE Queens makes much sense. Would be funny to see AOC win again and again in a district including parts of the Upper East Side though. I also don't know the Bronx too well though, so feel free to correct.





Had originally drawn the Rochester district into Ontario County, but this way lets you do it in whole counties.

[Sol]

The link doesn't work, but I like your map! I think we approached it with pretty similar styles.

I do think it's worth discussing NY-05, which is kind of a difficult district. When drawing my NY-05, I was amazed by how Black it became when I added neighboring towns and Hempstead; it's very easy to draw a VRA-performing district which chops into Long Island. You could probably make it even more compact than mine. With that in mind I wonder if it'd be vulnerable to some kind of legal challenge.

The only other real quibble I'd have is that I think NY-21 might be better served by avoiding Oneida County, since the Mohawk Valley is something of a CoI (should do better with this myself).

[Sol]

If you're worried about NY-3 eating into the Asian parts of NY-6, it's perfectly feasible to skirt round it and top the seat up with parts of the Bronx. This will actually tend to allow NY-6 to become more Asian.

If you're considering extending NY-5 further into Long Island, bear in mind that Kathleen Rice lives in Garden City. So it's feasible to make the minority communities on the border with Queens, but it's difficult to add in Hempstead et al. without drawing Rice out of her district.

Oh yeah definitely that would be an issue; my map was intended as a dispatch from a world where NY has a California-style commission.

[Sol]

Dems should:
1) Split Staten Island, this would make NY-11 safe and let Rose return to Congress

You can just give it lower Manhattan or Park Slope, though, especially in the latter case, it would not be guaranteed that Rose would win a primary.

[Sol]

Can whoever made this thread so wide undo that? Making it a little unreadable.

[Sol]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0919aa66-d80b-4aad-81c4-a23470ff22ee

A non-partisan 26 seats map I made.
This incorporates a Southern Brooklyn CD and pushes the 4th into black-plurality status. I was adamant on having just one seat crossing from NYC to LI. I made sure to preserve a black-majority CD wholely within Brooklyn, and the 11th was designed to be as non-white as possible. 12 is a "white sink". 7 is made both more Latino and less county-splitting. 13 is a district finely divided between Blacks, Whites, and Latinos, and could elect someone from each group. 14 is a safe Latino CD, while 15 has barely any Whites and could elect either a Black or a Latino.

In Upstate NY, I found combinations that allowed me to cut down on overall county splits. 23 becomes a whole 4 counties. No counties are shared between the new 20th and new 21st. The 21st is sort of a "leftovers" seat, taking in all of Sullivan County that the 18th couldn't take, all of the Capital Region-adjucant areas that the 19th couldn't take, and most of the Mohawk Valley. I maintained compact districts centered on Buffalo and Rochester.

18 CDs have a D+ PVI, and 8 CDs have a R+ PVI. The Orange-Sullivan-Rockland CD is closest to EVEN, at just D+0.

IIRC it's still possible to draw two Black majority seats in Brooklyn in a not-so-ugly way on just 25 seats, so I doubt cutting one would fly, especially since Meek's district is getting kind of diluted too.

[Sol]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0919aa66-d80b-4aad-81c4-a23470ff22ee

A non-partisan 26 seats map I made.
This incorporates a Southern Brooklyn CD and pushes the 4th into black-plurality status. I was adamant on having just one seat crossing from NYC to LI. I made sure to preserve a black-majority CD wholely within Brooklyn, and the 11th was designed to be as non-white as possible. 12 is a "white sink". 7 is made both more Latino and less county-splitting. 13 is a district finely divided between Blacks, Whites, and Latinos, and could elect someone from each group. 14 is a safe Latino CD, while 15 has barely any Whites and could elect either a Black or a Latino.

In Upstate NY, I found combinations that allowed me to cut down on overall county splits. 23 becomes a whole 4 counties. No counties are shared between the new 20th and new 21st. The 21st is sort of a "leftovers" seat, taking in all of Sullivan County that the 18th couldn't take, all of the Capital Region-adjucant areas that the 19th couldn't take, and most of the Mohawk Valley. I maintained compact districts centered on Buffalo and Rochester.

18 CDs have a D+ PVI, and 8 CDs have a R+ PVI. The Orange-Sullivan-Rockland CD is closest to EVEN, at just D+0.

IIRC it's still possible to draw two Black majority seats in Brooklyn in a not-so-ugly way on just 25 seats, so I doubt cutting one would fly, especially since Meek's district is getting kind of diluted too.

I essentially turned the 4th into a quasi-black seat and minted a new effectively black seat in the Bronx. This map is hardly negative at all for black influence in New York's congressional delegation.

The VRA isn't about overall minority representation; it's about representation in a certain area. The current map has two Black seats in Brooklyn and one in SE Queens/Hempstead. Your map has one in Brooklyn, one in Bklyn/Queens, and a very diverse coalition seat which isn't really performing in the same way.

[Sol]

Oh, and dang, the Asian percentage on NY-06 is not so great! I know it's an increase on the current district but it isn't hard at all to get it higher if I'm remembering right.

[Sol]

In my biased opinion, the map I put up above is best for the Dems, and perhaps the most likely to be drawn. It even looks reasonably presentable. The idea is to shore up Delgado in NY-19, Maloney in NY-17, replace Tenney with Brindisi, and get rid of the Reed and his southern tier CD, leaving Katko in place, and man who will be very hard to beat, and is the most "presentable" Pub in the House from NY.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=352854.msg7986074#msg7986074

Or you could put Ithaca in with Katko, which is Dem enough to make things difficult for Katko even with his habit of overperforming in Syracuse.

[Sol]

One could, but Ithaca is being put to good use elsewhere to make a reasonably safe CD for Brindisi (who says he's running again). Binghamton is used to shore up Delgado, and Ithaca is better anyway. As I said, I have no illusions that I will persuade anyone, other than od course, myself.

It just means you're wasting the safe D county of Onondaga by dumping it in a Republican district--I can give you a Utica-Syracuse-Ithaca district:



link

59.8% D on the partisan average, and with a lot of areas without a history with Rep. Katko.

You can probably clean this up with an only marginal impact on the partisanship.

[Sol]

I've been playing around a bit with a fair NY 25 seat map again, and I think I prefer this to my previous effort.





link

5, 6, and 8 are majority Black. The 13th and 14th are majority Latino. The 4th and 7th are minority plurality seats (Asian and Latino, respectively), while the 15th is a white plurality but very diverse seat.

I'm not in love with upstate. I made an alternate option which has a somewhat more logical districts in Northern NY, Syracuse, and the Hudson Valley in exchange for a rather brutal split of the Albany area if that's something y'all'd prefer:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

 

[Sol]

How does Tom Reed retiring influence redistricting?