2020 New York Redistricting (user search)
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Author Topic: 2020 New York Redistricting  (Read 99096 times)
Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« on: June 27, 2020, 07:00:41 AM »

This is a map for upstate NY assuming NY drops two seats and ends up with 25 seats rather than 26. The population estimates take the 7-1-19 census estimates and extrapolate forward the annualized rate of population change from 7-1-17 to 7-1-19 by county over the remaining 9 months until the 4-1-20 census date. Cinyc shared with me his opinion that he is quite  confident now that NY will drop 2 seats given the lagging census response rate in NYC, and that is good enough for me. This map is one that might be drawn with a bipartisan vote  or by the courts - in other words it assumes that the Dems do not get a two thirds majority in the State Senate and use that majority to draw a Dem gerrymander that the governor signs. All of the above is just one old man's opinion of course.



PS:  It is annoying that the new DRA utility does not seem to allow you to renumber CD's so the set of numbers I actually have is chaotic. At least it does allow you to play with the colors. This particular gay is very sensitive about color combinations!

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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #1 on: July 06, 2020, 07:16:20 PM »
« Edited: July 07, 2020, 06:41:02 AM by Torie »



This is the downstate map that completes my upstate map above.  The erosity action between NY-12 and NY-06 is an attempt to maximize the Asian vote in NY-06. In a way the downstate map is somewhat of a somewhat wasted effort since the lines in NYC and Westchester are driven largely by race, with compactness and not splitting borough lines a consideration, but not dominant. And there are no projections for the precinct ethnicity data, leaving us with the  2010 precinct data, which are pretty stale.

As it is, with the stale numbers an Hispanic CD bit the dust as the size of the CD's expanded. Indeed, just to protect the second Hispanic CD, NY-13 needed to weave into Spanish Harlem to make it a comfortably performing Hispanic CD. NY-07 and NY-09 needed to split up the white areas in Brooklyn near Manhattan in order to make both CD's performing Black CD's, with a little help from NY-11 as its expanded size reached north right up to the gates of Battery Park to such up some more precincts where Blacks are very thin on the ground.

I suspect even if one followed my rules and sensibilities, the lines will change a fair bit once we get the racial and Hispanic data by precinct sometime over the rainbow in 2021.
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #2 on: July 07, 2020, 06:35:22 AM »

The Brooklyn part of that map is kind of crazy-pants. No way that's anything close to what ends up being drawn. They're not going to abolish a Hispanic district for the specific purpose of creating a new white district. That NY-08 is dead on arrival.

The rest of the map seems somewhat reasonable, but they would probably send NY-04 into the Bronx and maybe even all the way into Westchester in order to take more Asian areas into NY-06.

Your comment has considerable merit of course. Having said that, the Pubs would never agree to the chop up of the gerrymander extravaganza of the NYC area, and in particular the chop up of the "natural" south Brooklyn CD, that no law in the land requires. As it is, NY-11 tips to the Dems in this map, and it could have been drawn to avoid that by taking in Borough Park.

While the judge who drew the existing map did an excellent job upstate, his map downstate was an erose mess, that I would never spend the time drawing because I would find engaging in such an exercise to be infra dig.  

I would like to think that if the map goes to the courts again, a different judge would give more weight to respecting jurisdictional lines, and keeping erosity down to a dull roar. And depending on the census demographic data, it may be difficult to draw three performing Hispanic districts. As I implied, if the demographic data would support a 3rd performing Hispanic CD, without drawing something akin to the existing map (which may be a challenging task in all events), then I would redraw the map. Drawing the NYC area as I noted is premature in all events until the precinct ethnicity data becomes available, since that obviously is a major factor driving the location of the CD lines.
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #3 on: July 07, 2020, 08:17:34 AM »

a) It's not going to a court, if the commission don't draw a map that the Democrats are happy with they can just pass their own through the State Assembly and Senate
b) Of course it's possible to draw three performing Hispanic districts. It's not even that complex - just adding Corona and Elmhurst to Velazquez's district would do it, although that's using a sledgehammer to crack a nut.

I believe the Dems need a two thirds majority in the State Senate to draw their own map.
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #4 on: November 21, 2020, 03:34:37 PM »
« Edited: November 21, 2020, 04:39:42 PM by Torie »

Assuming Tenney wins and thus NY-22 can be removed from the map, and the Dems can draw a map that pleases them without looking too ridiculous upstate, here is one approach. The incumbent, Mr. Jones (Rockland County), who is very progressive, might not like it though. The map assumes NY loses two CD seats, down to 25, and as I moved lines around from my non partisan map, I was just making estimates. The lines would have to move a tad from NY-16 north excluding the three CD's in western NY that I did not play with.

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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #5 on: November 21, 2020, 03:46:28 PM »

"It might be better to give Tompkins to Delgado and then give Utica to Katko"

That makes Delgado's seat too elongated and erose and makes it look ridiculous. Stefanick needs the population, and I gave Katko the most Dem node in Oneida.  JMO.
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #6 on: November 21, 2020, 04:34:56 PM »
« Edited: November 21, 2020, 04:52:27 PM by Torie »

"It might be better to give Tompkins to Delgado and then give Utica to Katko"

That makes Delgado's seat too elongated and erose and makes it look ridiculous. Stefanick needs the population, and I gave Katko the most Dem node in Oneida.  JMO.

Do Dems really care if the districts look ridiculous?  I see that you gave Delgado Troy in Rensselaer county, which he will like.

Yes, the Troy thing was deliberate. There are certain metrics like compactness and not too many county splits, buried in NY law that may be subject to total finesse and ignore, but even if that is the case, the best gerrymander is the one that does not look like one much. And why would Dems in swing seats want to vote for something that looked hideous, and be branded partisan spear carrier hacks for life, when you get to close to the same place by making it all so much more pleasing to the senses?

Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. You might write that down for future reference.
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #7 on: November 21, 2020, 05:42:54 PM »

"It might be better to give Tompkins to Delgado and then give Utica to Katko"

That makes Delgado's seat too elongated and erose and makes it look ridiculous. Stefanick needs the population, and I gave Katko the most Dem node in Oneida.  JMO.

Do Dems really care if the districts look ridiculous?  I see that you gave Delgado Troy in Rensselaer county, which he will like.

Yes, the Troy thing was deliberate. There are certain metrics like compactness and not too many county splits, buried in NY law that may be subject to total finesse and ignore, but even if that is the case, the best gerrymander is the one that does not look like one much. And why would Dems in swing seats want to vote for something that looked hideous, and be branded partisan spear carrier hacks for life, when you get to close to the same place by making all so much more pleasing to the senses?

Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. You might write that down for future reference.

There will also be a legislative gerrymander to shore up those Democrats

Yeah especially in the state Senate.  Look for Ulster county to be united rather than split and for Rochester to be split just two ways rather than five (to help the two Dems that picked up seats).  The remaining Republican LI seats probably get packed with more Republicans in order to help incumbent Dems.  Same with Sue Serino’s seat in the Hudson Valley (likely gains Republicans from Harckham’s seat in exchange for Dems).

Well one way to slow the train down on gerrymandering in NYS is for the Dems to burn the barn down, and make the surviving Pubs highly valuable to collect for their rarity as  objects d'art, and in the one party state, for the Dems to have utterly vicious primaries in many places. My town of course is in the vanguard of this, even without gerrymandering, because well, of the sagacity of the chap who drew the ward map. Ha!
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Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #8 on: November 23, 2020, 12:30:31 PM »

Here is my latest and greatest Dem gerrymander of upstate NY.

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Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #9 on: November 23, 2020, 06:30:39 PM »

3) Crack Buffalo a bit, Higgins is well entrenched and could survive a less blue district.

It seems like it's maybe possible to get two nominally-D WNY seats... I was able to do it in a way that wasn't too ugly by putting Niagara, Orleans, and Genesee in one seat, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Wyoming, and most of Allegany in the other. The first seat included Buffalo west of Main, the South Campus of UB, the Northtowns due east of Grand Island, Lancaster, and Alden, and the second included the remainder. The problem is that both seats average a margin of 0.20% for Dem over Rep according to the DRA's composite score. That doesn't seem safe enough, incumbency aside.

Indeed. Erie County is very volatile in its voting habits.
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #10 on: November 24, 2020, 02:00:40 PM »

The Dems getting their 43 state senate seats has been obvious for two weeks now. That was what motivated me to draw the Dem gerrymander that I did for upstate NY that does not look that much like one, and should minimize the blow back, and not run too afoul of some metrics that are supposed to be hewed to, even if clever minds can circumvent them.
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #11 on: December 12, 2020, 02:19:21 PM »

Assuming NY loses only one seat, the above is a nice map. My local congressman Delgado (NY-19) would hate it however.
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Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #12 on: December 12, 2020, 05:30:48 PM »

Your map may have VRA problems.
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #13 on: December 15, 2020, 11:22:45 AM »

Interesting article as to how the Trump show played out in NYC, assembly seat by assembly seat.

https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/12/10/inside-trumps-surprising-new-york-city-surge-1344705
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #14 on: March 05, 2021, 07:02:44 PM »
« Edited: March 05, 2021, 07:06:01 PM by Torie »

For upstate NY, here is my Katco and Brindisi are kings map.



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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #15 on: March 06, 2021, 07:05:56 PM »

One thing: it might not be the best idea to put Oneida in with Onondaga. Onondaga is more R downballot, and Oneida is pretty strongly R downballot, so it's basically a recipe for near-certain R wins against Ds not named Brindisi.


But it is about Brindisi. But with Katko not his opponent. I suspect the Dems will go my way on this one. We shall see.
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #16 on: March 07, 2021, 12:13:45 PM »
« Edited: March 07, 2021, 12:42:08 PM by Torie »

In my biased opinion, the map I put up above is best for the Dems, and perhaps the most likely to be drawn. It even looks reasonably presentable. The idea is to shore up Delgado in NY-19, Maloney in NY-17, replace Tenney with Brindisi, and merge the NY-23 and NY-27, double bunking Reed and Jacobs, leaving Katko in place, and man who will be very hard to beat, and is the most "presentable" Pub in the House from NY. A bonus point is that Jacobs' home is put into the Buffalo CD, so he will either have to run not living in the CD (which is legal), or have to move. If I had to pick between Reed and Jacobs, I would pick Reed.

The Dems upstate thus get it all, given the Tenney, Brindisi and Katko troika, with Katko and Brindisi very strong candidates, who definitely don't want to be running against each other, the noxious and weak candidate Tenney is excised, and the two remaining upstate Pub CD's become one, so the Dems pick up one seat, the Pubs lose two, all the Dem incumbents are made safer, and the map will not be suitable for framing as a poster child as an example of execrable gerrymandering on steroids.

Have I persuaded anybody? Of course not! It's Atlas, were everyone is always right and fully informed!  Angel

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=352854.msg7986074#msg7986074
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #17 on: March 07, 2021, 01:10:30 PM »

One could, but Ithaca is being put to good use elsewhere to make a reasonably safe CD for Brindisi (who says he's running again). Binghamton is used to shore up Delgado, and Ithaca is better anyway. As I said, I have no illusions that I will persuade anyone, other than od course, myself. Smiley
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #18 on: March 07, 2021, 02:26:35 PM »

Did you know that the dividing line between the Hudson and St Lawrence river sheds runs right through the middle of Rome? I thought not. That is even better than that the tri-corner point of the Mississippi, St. Lawrence and Susquehanna river sheds sits in the middle of a flat farm field.
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #19 on: March 23, 2021, 09:12:09 AM »
« Edited: March 23, 2021, 10:12:25 AM by Torie »

Here is my latest Dem gerrymander of upstate NY. I did this exercise because I had a suspicion about something, which I might add, was confirmed. What might the old fossil have been brooding about?

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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #20 on: March 23, 2021, 10:53:34 AM »

Here is my latest Dem gerrymander of upstate NY. I did this exercise because I had a suspicion about something, which I might add, was confirmed. What might the old fossil have been brooding about?



To my untrained eye, it looks as if you've only coloured in the city limits and slightly beyond of various places - either just the one city in the case of Rochester, Syracuse and Utica, or the wider area in the cases of Albany and maybe Buffalo, and weirdly, missing out part of the city in Rome's case. I thought at first you were trying to get each into a separate district, but I don't see that happening and it's almost impossible on a 25 seat map. Perhaps the exercise was to see how much you could add beyond the city limits while meeting a certain D%, but then surely Ithaca would be far greater. Then I thought one of the cities might vote Republican - e.g. Rome, and enough territory has been removed to make it Republican. Or simply that you suspected Ithaca was the most Democratic of all the cities. Am I close at all? To be honest I really don't know, and I don't know why I chose to answer your question.

No, but thanks for your interest. The splotches are based on a rough inclusion of areas with high population density, to see how big the cities really are without the census hype of them going out into the hinterlands. I was wondering how big the Albany urbanized area really was, because it seems to be far less than meets the eye, as it sprawls around, but it does not take very long to get into far less densely populated areas. It turns out its about the same size as the Rochester - as I suspected! The census tells us the Albany MSA is around 900,000. Not really. The census likes to include whole counties.
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #21 on: May 16, 2021, 10:03:36 AM »

Dummymander potential is higher than usual in this cycle in many states because the party coalitions are more unstable than usual. Both parties now have factions within them that really don't have much use for each other. Those elected to represent their respective herds of cats have a tough job.
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Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #22 on: August 28, 2021, 08:47:47 AM »

Please forgive them God, for they know not what they do.

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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #23 on: August 28, 2021, 02:16:28 PM »
« Edited: August 28, 2021, 02:23:02 PM by Torie »

Are those the rules for the commission, or for any districts drawn? I assume gerrymanders assume the legislature ignores the commission with a supermajority vote.


I asked the same question to myself, and they appear to be the law, that all must follow, until such time as the Constitution is changed. There was talk of that, but I think that is by the boards now due to covid, resignation and the general chaos that is out there in the Empire State.

Drawing illegal maps, or very probably illegal maps, or assuming somewhat partisan courts are the functional equivalent of Jim Jordon, or Cori Bush, or even MTG being the one person court, seems all the rage, both here and on RRH. Resistance is futile. I have basically given up. I just get attacked as a clueless dirt bag attorney just lawyering it up and sh*t posting.

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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #24 on: August 28, 2021, 06:03:54 PM »

Well, it will be interesting if Dems go for the 23-3 and someone challenges on the "favoring one party" rule. That would seem to have potential if all of the others (including compactness) will be easy to avoid.


I am working on a map that would give the Dems the best objective function given the constraints. It is not easy. But I suspect that the objective function will have to cede to the Pubs 4 seats, with some more in a bad year a tad vulnerable. In other news, my former (I changed my principal residence to Hoboken - I live in Jersey now, where the garbage meets the sea, can you imagine?) Congressman, Delgado (NY-19)  is running hard, as if he thinks that assuming an easy ride is stuck on stupid, and he's right. I think I have received about 5 meet and greet offers from him in the last month via email.
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