2020 New York Redistricting

[Sestak]

Jones has good relation with the Orthodox Jews and the local GOP doesn't have the best relation.

Didn't Rockland GOP literally run antisemitic ads scaremongering about the Hasidic community 'taking over the county? Clearly their growth will doom the Democrats in this seat.

[Roll Roons]

Jones has good relation with the Orthodox Jews and the local GOP doesn't have the best relation.

Didn't Rockland GOP literally run antisemitic ads scaremongering about the Hasidic community 'taking over the county? Clearly their growth will doom the Democrats in this seat.

If they did, that's an extremely stupid move on their move because Hasidic Jews could be an extremely potent bloc for the GOP in NY and NJ. They vote Republican at a higher rate than black people vote Democratic.

[lfromnj]

Long island risk depends how much NY05 takes from Nassau. Does it just take the Black Queens "spillover" or does it go further and take whites from Nassau as well thus allowing NY03 to take more dem areas  in the city while also taking more red parts of Long island. The portions of the Bronx and Queens that connect Westchester aren't very Democratic however.




For example if we just remove the AA spillover parts in Nassau and just draw into Westchester and also draw a Biden +0 seat in East Long Island we get 3 districts of Biden +6.5. This is definetely dummymander territory.

[lfromnj]

Jones has good relation with the Orthodox Jews and the local GOP doesn't have the best relation.

Didn't Rockland GOP literally run antisemitic ads scaremongering about the Hasidic community 'taking over the county? Clearly their growth will doom the Democrats in this seat.

They somewhat have a better relationshp now. I think the Orthodox Jews did vote for the GOP in 2021.

[lfromnj]

Big yikes for them if this is true:
https://twitter.com/decunningham2/status/1487905503267246082?cxt=HHwWhMC-2YCLjaY...

If I read right they put Nassau and The Bronx in one, so never say never

It mostly depends what portion of Nassau Ny05 takes. If it takes areas like Garden city as well it's probably worth it.

The portion of the Bronx they put may only be like 60 -40.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/EvanPerc_/status/1487901460050362374

NY-19 is definitely vulnerable with a candidate as good as Molinaro. NY-17 is worth watching with the rapid growth of the Orthodox Jewish population.

Nah, Molinaro is screwed.  He might as well drop out at this point tbh.

Biden +9 is not safe in an environment like this.

Ehh, the new district is pretty safe for Delgado.  He's a very strong incumbent who was working his a** off campaigning long before Molinaro got in the race.  And in the highly unlikely event that it flips, it'll flip right back in 2022.  With all due respect, I think you're wishcasting a bit with both this race and the SPM seat.

[BoiseBoy]

Block assignment/shapefile can be found here: https://www.latfor.state.ny.us/maps/?sec=2022_congress

EDIT: Shapefile .zip does not work. WinRAR says the file is corrupted.

[Frodo]

What's wrong with Staten Island into Manhattan? There's both historical precedent and a heavily used ferry.

Yep, there is a clear community of interest of ferry riders. Many thousands of Bronz's NYPD officers ride the ferry in from Staten Island to Manhattan every day, where they police Times Square and make sure no terrorist attacks occur. So if you disrespect that community of interest, then you are disrespecting the police and helping the terrorists win.

I know you meant to say 'Bronx', but this was too funny to pass up.... 

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1487916847156637697?s=20&t=XODby3NT...

Whoever said 4 blue LI seats gets tarred and feathered for fake news.

[Oryxslayer]

DRA Link.



NY-01 is Biden+10.8

NY-02 is Trump+14.2

NY-03 is Biden+14.2

NY-04 is Biden+12.1



Damn NY-10, You Squiggle.

NY-05 is 44.5% AA by VAP.

NY-06 is 44.4% Asian by VAP.

NY-07 remains the weird hybrid Progressive-Caribbean seat. 35.9% Hispanic by VAP, 10.6% AA.

NY-08 is 42.1% AA by VAP.

NY-09 is 41.7% AA by VAP. This and NY-08 are exhumed from the progressive regions.

NY-11 is Biden+9.5, 55.1% White by VAP.



NY-10 is 52% Manhattan, 48% Brooklyn. Only 51.5% White by VAP cause of South Brooklyn Asians.

NY-12 is 90% Manhattan. The 10% that is not is the shoreline PoC housing blocks. AoC gets the Progressives. 65.2% White by VAP.

NY-13 is 53.3% Hispanic by VAP.

NY-14 is 45.2% Hispanic by VAP.

NY-15 is 58.5% Hispanic by VAP.



NY-16 is 37.9% White by VAP

Already seen upstate but:

[ProgressiveModerate]

Jones has good relation with the Orthodox Jews and the local GOP doesn't have the best relation.

Didn't Rockland GOP literally run antisemitic ads scaremongering about the Hasidic community 'taking over the county? Clearly their growth will doom the Democrats in this seat.

If they did, that's an extremely stupid move on their move because Hasidic Jews could be an extremely potent bloc for the GOP in NY and NJ. They vote Republican at a higher rate than black people vote Democratic.

They're a really interesting community because while in 2020 they did, in 2016 they didn't. They seem to vote as a Block though; just look at New Square which swung like 180+ points towards Trump and where he got 99% of the vote. I wonder how much this will hold across the board or if 2020 was unique.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

What's wrong with Staten Island into Manhattan? There's both historical precedent and a heavily used ferry.

Yep, there is a clear community of interest of ferry riders. Many thousands of Bronz's NYPD officers ride the ferry in from Staten Island to Manhattan every day, where they police Times Square and make sure no terrorist attacks occur. So if you disrespect that community of interest, then you are disrespecting the police and helping the terrorists win.

I know you meant to say 'Bronx', but this was too funny to pass up.... 

No, I did mean Bronz

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Good news for Carolyn Maloney: her seat is more in Manhattan than it used to.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sad how they *almost* cleaned up NYC except for NY-10 which is just ridiculous

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Did any of the NYC incumbents get inconvenienced? 

[Suburbia]

Malliotakis still has a chance because all the FDNY/NYPD will come out in South Shore...

But Rose will probably win....he'll have to make peace again with the NYPD after marching at a Black Lives Matter rally

[MillennialModerate]

Can someone just make it simple: What’s the breakdown? 23-3?

[lfromnj]

Can someone just make it simple: What’s the breakdown? 23-3?

Pretty secure 22 4

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

NY-10 is just bizarre… like why does it have the water *outside* the docks? Why does it have just one fourth or Central Park, and it’s the ramble at that??? And that arm…. God bless

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

DRA Link.

NY-11 is disappointing, coming in at only 54.6% Biden.

I am not sure that is enough to secure a Democratic pickup in 2022.

It could easily have been made more Democratic by giving it some of the downtown Brooklyn white progressive areas that are mostly in NY-07.

Democrats in the NY State Legislature should vote down this Republican gerrymander and pass an amended map that does a better job of representing appropriate communities of interest and which just so happens by sheer coincidence to favor Democrats more, in particular in NY-11.

[Oryxslayer]

DRA Link.

NY-11 is disappointing, coming in at only 54.6% Biden.

I am not sure that is enough to secure a Democratic pickup in 2022.

It could easily have been made more Democratic by giving it some of the downtown Brooklyn white progressive areas that are mostly in NY-07.

Note Clinton got the exact same percentage here. These parts of Brooklyn contain voters who will never be splitting tickets...ever.

[ProgressiveModerate]

DRA Link.

NY-11 is disappointing, coming in at only 54.6% Biden.

I am not sure that is enough to secure a Democratic pickup in 2022.

It could easily have been made more Democratic by giving it some of the downtown Brooklyn white progressive areas that are mostly in NY-07.

Note Clinton got the exact same percentage here. These parts of Brooklyn contain voters who will never be splitting tickets...ever.

Yeah if Rs win this district, it'll have to be because of terrible turnout up in Park Slope

[Torie]

The NYS Dems seem to hate Orthodox Jews. They get screwed in every cycle.

Yes, Delgado in NY-19 has been working his butt off (I seem to get about 3 emails a week from him touting his accomplishments, always with a moderate and non partisan theme), so I would say the seat is a pretty strong lean Dem. That assumes this map actually becomes law. The Dems need a two thirds vote and an uber hack high court to get to the finish line.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Yeah if Rs win this district, it'll have to be because of terrible turnout up in Park Slope

Park slope will be fine. The concerns are non-white turnout (and possibly support) in Staten Island and the southern more working class parts of Brooklyn which are still in this district, and support from working class white voters in the same areas. Other than Park Slope itself, the rest of the district is mostly working class. Although the Hispanic/Asian areas that are included in sunset park are quite strongly Dem, they are also relatively low turnout. If there were less of those areas and more higher turnout white liberal areas, then the district could be totally safe Dem, rather than potentially competitive (particularly in a year like 2022 will likely be).

[lfromnj]

By the way anyone have the numbers for ny06?
Safe D for 2022 but worth just keeping a watch on for the future .