2020 New York Redistricting

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

what chance is there we get a Orthodox Jews of Southern Brooklyn-dedicated district?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Another interesting question: who gets cut upstate?

Katko seems like the obvious answer; it's a little difficult considering his cult following (and the general propensity of Syracuse to elect Republicans downballot) but if you give him Ithaca it's better. Perhaps toss in Utica too so that Brindisi will get a seat even if he loses reelection.

The one complication I can foresee is the 25th district, which will have to expand. Louise Slaughter had a close shave in 2014, and the district will get more Republican if it grows. Democrats might would want to give it firmer numbers.

My assumption was always that sheer geography ensured NY-22 would get cut, its the only district to border both PA and Lake Ontario and its next to a bunch of seats that also have an expand.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Another interesting question: who gets cut upstate?

Katko seems like the obvious answer; it's a little difficult considering his cult following (and the general propensity of Syracuse to elect Republicans downballot) but if you give him Ithaca it's better. Perhaps toss in Utica too so that Brindisi will get a seat even if he loses reelection.

The one complication I can foresee is the 25th district, which will have to expand. Louise Slaughter had a close shave in 2014, and the district will get more Republican if it grows. Democrats might would want to give it firmer numbers.

My assumption was always that sheer geography ensured NY-23 would get cut, its the only district to border both PA and Lake Ontario and its next to a bunch of seats that also have an expand.

NY-23's land area will have a district one way or another.   NY-22 is the one that's easiest to divide up between eastern upstate and western upstate.

I agree. My memory at that moment had failed me and caused me to misnumber the district in question.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Another interesting question: who gets cut upstate?

Katko seems like the obvious answer; it's a little difficult considering his cult following (and the general propensity of Syracuse to elect Republicans downballot) but if you give him Ithaca it's better. Perhaps toss in Utica too so that Brindisi will get a seat even if he loses reelection.

The one complication I can foresee is the 25th district, which will have to expand. Louise Slaughter had a close shave in 2014, and the district will get more Republican if it grows. Democrats might would want to give it firmer numbers.

My assumption was always that sheer geography ensured NY-23 would get cut, its the only district to border both PA and Lake Ontario and its next to a bunch of seats that also have an expand.

NY-23 will probably be divided up--but it doesn't mean that Brindisi or his successor will lose.

I easily see Stefanik being at potentially grave risk of losing to Brindisi in a Trump midterm if Oneida County is thrown into her district. Stefanik's got considerable retail politics skills but so does Brindisi. And its not like Oneida County is tiny.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What if Ds draw a seat that has just Albany County then extends west into firmly GOP territory?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/060abf38-58dd-470e-957a-8a2a7c3e6c38
something like this

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/060abf38-58dd-470e-957a-8a2a7c3e6c38
something like this

https://davesredistricting.org/join/93c77798-629d-417c-9f85-0168c675234d
17 - R+1
18 - D+2
19 - D+2
20 - R+0
21 - R+5
22 - D+6
23 - R+7
24 - D+7
25 - R+12
26 - D+9

indeed, a really bad idea

How is this really bad? There are only 3 GOP-favoring seats in upstate under this plan, and I've checked the numbers, the Albany and Syracuse seats both voted Clinton. The Scenectady seat also was really close in 2016, and now you've furnished even more evidence of this, with it being EVEN.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There's also the consideration that any House district that has all of Albany in it is going to be hard for the GOP to win in all but the worst of conditions, due to the inelasticity of the county. (Though this becomes less true the smaller the % in population of the CD comes from said county)

In 2014 Paul Tonko was returned to office with 62% of the vote. I think we can afford to unpack his district.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0dff3bc8-2479-44a4-9b3b-3a02a71fe404
what about this?
This has a district running from Torie's home county all the way to Quebec and boosts the Obama 08 % in the "Binghambany" district by 1.9 points and in the leftovers Capital Region seat by 0.9 points. The seats in the Lower Hudson Valley are unchanged.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

this is a map I constructed re: population changes in New York. We are seeing many places undergo Japanesque population declines.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

my take on 25 district NY

comments:

• Not sure how much town borders matter in Long Island, but I have NY-04 entirely within Hempstead
• Sol's point about NY-03 taking so much of Queens harming the Asian character of NY-06 is very valid
• NY-05 cannot remain majority black but that's okay - only group that comes remotely close though is Latinos, and they are barely any threat to the black hold on the seat
• NY-06, by careful precinct selection, can continue to serve the interest of Asian opportunity seat - in fact, I made a version even more Asian than its current iteration
• The leftovers pretty much have to go with Latino areas of Brooklyn right next door; the current NY-07 cannot continue to exist without messing up other areas, so in practice the Puerto Rican nature of the current seat is partially sacrificed to keep it Latino
• I largely unified the Hasidic areas in Southern Brooklyn under an AA seat; it was the least I could do
• The side effect of the rest of Queens being thrown in with Brooklyn results in an all-Manhattan seat centered on the borough south of Harlem and north of Lower Manhattan
• The essential character of the 15th is preserved with a loss of 2 seats
• Eye-popping how much the Rockland CD expands - swallowing all but 27k or so of the county not in the Yonkers CD
• The 18th shifts Republican due to expanding north and west
• The 21st shifts Republican partially due to Syracuse being less of the seat, and particularly due to it swallowing about 90% of Oneida County
• The Central Tier-focused 23rd is split in two due to necessity; the new 22nd is a bit Republican-leaning but more winnable than the old 23rd
• I adopted Sol's Rochester CD; it was a no-brainer
• another case of expansion in area - the Buffallo CD
• median seat is 5 points more R than the state as a whole - which isn't out of the ordinary
• the eliminated districts, in practice, are probably the old 7th and the old 22nd

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3909dca6-5fc9-4e63-b637-4f08254c9b79li

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The link doesn't work, but I like your map! I think we approached it with pretty similar styles.

I do think it's worth discussing NY-05, which is kind of a difficult district. When drawing my NY-05, I was amazed by how Black it became when I added neighboring towns and Hempstead; it's very easy to draw a VRA-performing district which chops into Long Island. You could probably make it even more compact than mine. With that in mind I wonder if it'd be vulnerable to some kind of legal challenge.

The only other real quibble I'd have is that I think NY-21 might be better served by avoiding Oneida County, since the Mohawk Valley is something of a CoI (should do better with this myself).

The problem is that under 25 districts the North Country and the Mohawk Valley is very hard to both whole in what is an overall a cohesive and logical map. And unlike the North Country, the Mohawk Valley is primed to be split in some way particularly due to the strange shape of Herkimer County and its central location.
Having a district unifying the Mohawk Valley is likely to be a bad thing from a CoI perspective due to the disruption this would make for other areas.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

update: it is possible to have a Mohawk Valley seat while preserving the NorthCountry, but the Hudson Valley gets the brunt of the changes. Not to mention, the changes to the Capital Region are kinda problematic.

PVI of CDs 18-25 respectively: D+7, R+2, D+3, R+6, R+3, D+6, R+12, D+8

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

"It might be better to give Tompkins to Delgado and then give Utica to Katko"

That makes Delgado's seat too elongated and erose and makes it look ridiculous. Stefanick needs the population, and I gave Katko the most Dem node in Oneida.  JMO.

Do Dems really care if the districts look ridiculous?  I see that you gave Delgado Troy in Rensselaer county, which he will like.

Yes, the Troy thing was deliberate. There are certain metrics like compactness and not too many county splits, buried in NY law that may be subject to total finesse and ignore, but even if that is the case, the best gerrymander is the one that does not look like one much. And why would Dems in swing seats want to vote for something that looked hideous, and be branded partisan spear carrier hacks for life, when you get to close to the same place by making all so much more pleasing to the senses?

Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. You might write that down for future reference.

There will also be a legislative gerrymander to shore up those Democrats

Yeah especially in the state Senate.  Look for Ulster county to be united rather than split and for Rochester to be split just two ways rather than five (to help the two Dems that picked up seats).  The remaining Republican LI seats probably get packed with more Republicans in order to help incumbent Dems.  Same with Sue Serino’s seat in the Hudson Valley (likely gains Republicans from Harckham’s seat in exchange for Dems).

Ironically, it seems Serino has better job security when it is Dems who have the pen in their hand, drawing the lines on the map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

snip

Gotta say, that is a very innovative map. Among other things, I've never seen a CD running from Syracuse to Vermont.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0919aa66-d80b-4aad-81c4-a23470ff22ee

A non-partisan 26 seats map I made.
This incorporates a Southern Brooklyn CD and pushes the 4th into black-plurality status. I was adamant on having just one seat crossing from NYC to LI. I made sure to preserve a black-majority CD wholely within Brooklyn, and the 11th was designed to be as non-white as possible. 12 is a "white sink". 7 is made both more Latino and less county-splitting. 13 is a district finely divided between Blacks, Whites, and Latinos, and could elect someone from each group. 14 is a safe Latino CD, while 15 has barely any Whites and could elect either a Black or a Latino.

In Upstate NY, I found combinations that allowed me to cut down on overall county splits. 23 becomes a whole 4 counties. No counties are shared between the new 20th and new 21st. The 21st is sort of a "leftovers" seat, taking in all of Sullivan County that the 18th couldn't take, all of the Capital Region-adjucant areas that the 19th couldn't take, and most of the Mohawk Valley. I maintained compact districts centered on Buffalo and Rochester.

18 CDs have a D+ PVI, and 8 CDs have a R+ PVI. The Orange-Sullivan-Rockland CD is closest to EVEN, at just D+0.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0919aa66-d80b-4aad-81c4-a23470ff22ee

A non-partisan 26 seats map I made.
This incorporates a Southern Brooklyn CD and pushes the 4th into black-plurality status. I was adamant on having just one seat crossing from NYC to LI. I made sure to preserve a black-majority CD wholely within Brooklyn, and the 11th was designed to be as non-white as possible. 12 is a "white sink". 7 is made both more Latino and less county-splitting. 13 is a district finely divided between Blacks, Whites, and Latinos, and could elect someone from each group. 14 is a safe Latino CD, while 15 has barely any Whites and could elect either a Black or a Latino.

In Upstate NY, I found combinations that allowed me to cut down on overall county splits. 23 becomes a whole 4 counties. No counties are shared between the new 20th and new 21st. The 21st is sort of a "leftovers" seat, taking in all of Sullivan County that the 18th couldn't take, all of the Capital Region-adjucant areas that the 19th couldn't take, and most of the Mohawk Valley. I maintained compact districts centered on Buffalo and Rochester.

18 CDs have a D+ PVI, and 8 CDs have a R+ PVI. The Orange-Sullivan-Rockland CD is closest to EVEN, at just D+0.

IIRC it's still possible to draw two Black majority seats in Brooklyn in a not-so-ugly way on just 25 seats, so I doubt cutting one would fly, especially since Meek's district is getting kind of diluted too.

I essentially turned the 4th into a quasi-black seat and minted a new effectively black seat in the Bronx. This map is hardly negative at all for black influence in New York's congressional delegation.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is a super Dem gerrymandered 22-3 map I made which in this scenario NY loses 2 seats instead of one. One GOP sink in the SW part of upstate NY and 2 slightly R seats in LI.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/33577eb8-1599-4c16-a75c-4d2008e6bf20

That Syracuse district should easily re-elect Katko right? Or does he live in another district on this map?

Which Syracuse district?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's harder to cut Stefanik because her seat is in a corner of the state.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

One thing: it might not be the best idea to put Oneida in with Onondaga. Onondaga is more R downballot, and Oneida is pretty strongly R downballot, so it's basically a recipe for near-certain R wins against Ds not named Brindisi.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

One thing: it might not be the best idea to put Oneida in with Onondaga. Onondaga is more R downballot, and Oneida is pretty strongly R downballot, so it's basically a recipe for near-certain R wins against Ds not named Brindisi.

But it is about Brindisi. But with Katko not his opponent. I suspect the Dems will go my way on this one. We shall see.

Well, I am not of the mind that it's inherently or even generally a bad idea. But the best usage of Syracuse from a Democratic gerrymander perspective is still probably to have it be together with Ithaca, IF you want it in a reasonably safe Dem district. Onondaga+Oneida is at best, in neutral circumstances, lean D, with more upside for Rs then Ds.
Of course, one could also put Ithaca and Rochester in the same CD...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/25edb0f1-16fc-4b6b-8b60-134974e8c594
Thoughts on (particularly) Upstate in this map?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/25edb0f1-16fc-4b6b-8b60-134974e8c594
Thoughts on (particularly) Upstate in this map?

Silly to give Rochester Ithaca. Just make an Ontario + most of Monroe district besides the NW part. Give Delgado Ithaca.

I'm not saying it's a particularly excellent map, but its #1 purpose was to see what the map would look like IF rochester-ithaca took place, which allows for the creation of a D+8 seat as opposed to a D+6 one composed of Monroe+Orleans.
Since this would in fact also result in an additional county split I don't favor personally any variant of the map not including such a district.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/25edb0f1-16fc-4b6b-8b60-134974e8c594
Thoughts on (particularly) Upstate in this map?

Silly to give Rochester Ithaca. Just make an Ontario + most of Monroe district besides the NW part. Give Delgado Ithaca.

I'm not saying it's a particularly excellent map, but its #1 purpose was to see what the map would look like IF rochester-ithaca took place, which allows for the creation of a D+8 seat as opposed to a D+6 one composed of Monroe+Orleans.
Since this would in fact also result in an additional county split I don't favor personally any variant of the map not including such a district.

This is D+7.4. Wasting Ithaca to just slightly shore up a district is stupid when Delgado could use it a lot more.

Wow, I didn't actually personally visualize that kind of district.
Though I figure it could probably be a bit cleaner - that spur running all the way to the county line. Good work nonetheless.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/25edb0f1-16fc-4b6b-8b60-134974e8c594
Thoughts on (particularly) Upstate in this map?

Waste of Broome IMO - I don't think Rochester to Ithaca makes much sense, but this is how I'd do it -

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bb84424e-fc0b-465e-a285-ebf0db2a7b7c

This is probably close to the best compact non-county-split-galore Dem gerrymander in  upstate possible.