2020 New York Redistricting

[Sol]

I feel like a NY-11 Staten Island - Lower Manhattan District could theoretically be won by Sarah Davis type Republicans if partisanship was reduced and they played all their cards right (not gonna happen) as it seems like a very high-propensity, somewhat diverse, pragmatic professional family sort of district. They'd obv have to run up large margins in Staten Island and prolly cut down the margins in Lower Manhattan Suburbs such as Battery Park City. Would be funny though if Republicans somehow ended up representing lower Manhattan

New York has suddenly migrated to the Antipodes

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/_rebeccaclewis/status/1486820544628596741

[ProgressiveModerate]

What they do will be very telling. There is some evidence to suggest they may draw a relatively tame map like FL Rs or they could go full 23-3.

I think as for passing the map, any map should be able to pass the State General Assembly. As for the state Senate, they can only afford to have 1 defection who is most likely to be Simcha Felda who has switched like 3 times now and who State Dems don't have a very good grip on. I think if they argue it from the perspective this is our duty to cancel out R gerrymandering nationwide, a more aggressive map has a more reasonable chance of passing than just trying to hide the fact it's a gerrymander. This ofc assumes the map that's introduced is a pretty severe gerrymander. I do wonder if it's possible some far-left NYC state senator who doesn't have great ties to the state party (think Julia Salazar) could actually derail a gerrymander, as there really aren't that many moderate NY State D Senators.

What's really interesting is that is if all the remaining cards fall mostly Dem's way, the biggest wild card being NY, we could actually have a median seat that voted to the LEFT of the nation in 2020 (barely), which would be quite interesting considering at the beginning of this process the big debate over whether the new House map would be Biden or Trump majority

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like a NY-11 Staten Island - Lower Manhattan District could theoretically be won by Sarah Davis type Republicans if partisanship was reduced and they played all their cards right (not gonna happen) as it seems like a very high-propensity, somewhat diverse, pragmatic professional family sort of district. They'd obv have to run up large margins in Staten Island and prolly cut down the margins in Lower Manhattan Suburbs such as Battery Park City. Would be funny though if Republicans somehow ended up representing lower Manhattan

New York has suddenly migrated to the Antipodes

When I say suburban, I mean culturally suburban, not physically. I think NY is the only place where a area of 40 story high-rises can be culturally suburban.

[Frodo]

Whatever happens with congressional districts, one thing is certain -New York Democrats will never again allow Republicans to control the state Senate (either by outright winning the chamber, or by encouraging defections among more conservative Democrats), and will ensure that chamber is as gerrymandered in their favor as the state Assembly already is.  

New York's Legislature will draw its own new district maps and vote on them

[ProgressiveModerate]

Whatever happens with congressional districts, one thing is certain -New York Democrats will never again allow Republicans to control the state Senate (either by outright winning the chamber, or by encouraging defections among more conservative Democrats), and will ensure that chamber is as gerrymandered in their favor as the state Assembly already is.  

Ye it's weird to think about how Rs controlled the NYS up to 2018. My guess is they draw a slightly more modest State Senate map that should lock in a supermajority in both chambers most cycles but doesn't aim for 55 Biden seats or smtg crazy.

[Oryxslayer]

I think as for passing the map, any map should be able to pass the State General Assembly. As for the state Senate, they can only afford to have 1 defection who is most likely to be Simcha Felda who has switched like 3 times now and who State Dems don't have a very good grip on. I think if they argue it from the perspective this is our duty to cancel out R gerrymandering nationwide, a more aggressive map has a more reasonable chance of passing than just trying to hide the fact it's a gerrymander. This ofc assumes the map that's introduced is a pretty severe gerrymander. I do wonder if it's possible some far-left NYC state senator who doesn't have great ties to the state party (think Julia Salazar) could actually derail a gerrymander, as there really aren't that many moderate NY State D Senators.

FTR, Dems may actually only might now need a simple 50%+1 vote since the commission broke down and threw up their hands, rather than give them anything to propose amendments to. The law is weirdly worded here, and whenever I come across weird wording in NYS law, it usually isn't there by accident. I'm sure we'll see whenever a floor vote occurs, but that twitter community that switched their pfp's to laser-eyed-hochul certainly read it as simple majority....though they are the perhaps the worst source for legal advice.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think as for passing the map, any map should be able to pass the State General Assembly. As for the state Senate, they can only afford to have 1 defection who is most likely to be Simcha Felda who has switched like 3 times now and who State Dems don't have a very good grip on. I think if they argue it from the perspective this is our duty to cancel out R gerrymandering nationwide, a more aggressive map has a more reasonable chance of passing than just trying to hide the fact it's a gerrymander. This ofc assumes the map that's introduced is a pretty severe gerrymander. I do wonder if it's possible some far-left NYC state senator who doesn't have great ties to the state party (think Julia Salazar) could actually derail a gerrymander, as there really aren't that many moderate NY State D Senators.

FTR, Dems may actually only might now need a simple 50%+1 vote since the commission broke down and threw up their hands, rather than give them anything to propose amendments to. The law is weirdly worded here, and whenever I come across weird wording in NYS law, it usually isn't there by accident. I'm sure we'll see whenever a floor vote occurs, but that twitter community that switched their pfp's to laser-eyed-hochul certainly read it as simple majority. 

I think ideally they want to avoid that since that just opens a can of worms of legal issues that could give the map more reason to be struck down. It'll be interesting to watch what happens.

[Tintrlvr]

I feel like a NY-11 Staten Island - Lower Manhattan District could theoretically be won by Sarah Davis type Republicans if partisanship was reduced and they played all their cards right (not gonna happen) as it seems like a very high-propensity, somewhat diverse, pragmatic professional family sort of district. They'd obv have to run up large margins in Staten Island and prolly cut down the margins in Lower Manhattan Suburbs such as Battery Park City. Would be funny though if Republicans somehow ended up representing lower Manhattan

That sort of person would never be nominated by a Republican primary electorate that would still be dominated by Staten Island. Republican Party registration in neighborhoods like Tribeca or my very own SoHo that should be the base of such a candidate is in single digits, and New York has closed primaries.

You could see an independent David Catania-like candidate win at most, who would inevitably caucus with the Democrats anyway.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like a NY-11 Staten Island - Lower Manhattan District could theoretically be won by Sarah Davis type Republicans if partisanship was reduced and they played all their cards right (not gonna happen) as it seems like a very high-propensity, somewhat diverse, pragmatic professional family sort of district. They'd obv have to run up large margins in Staten Island and prolly cut down the margins in Lower Manhattan Suburbs such as Battery Park City. Would be funny though if Republicans somehow ended up representing lower Manhattan

That sort of person would never be nominated by a Republican primary electorate that would still be dominated by Staten Island. Republican Party registration in neighborhoods like Tribeca or my very own SoHo that should be the base of such a candidate is in single digits, and New York has closed primaries.

You could see an independent David Catania-like candidate win at most, who would inevitably caucus with the Democrats anyway.

Ye. They seem like someone who may have had a legacy of sorts and then got either outprimaried in the Trump era or lost in 2018.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/NickTagliaferro/status/1487099865045905409?s=20&t=01NcCN...

Potential info on the nukage of Staten.

[lfromnj]

I never saw why it would need to go into Manhattan. Maloney's proposal was probably meant to get Rose into congress. There would be a very left wing Brooklyn portion and then also a portion in Manhattan but Staten Island Democrats could still have the primary. Issue is there still are a few progressive leftovers and no one else wants those until you reach AOC who is too far away. The simplest solution is to give the Crane Husbands of NYC their seat by attaching them to Staten Island.

[compucomp]

I wonder if a strong 23-3 gerrymander in NY will push FL Republicans into a stronger gerrymander on their side like the DeSantis map. Doubtless NY Republicans and FL Democrats will sue each map in state court saying it's an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander. Then ~10 House seats and quite possibly control of the House would depend on how each court rules.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I wonder if a strong 23-3 gerrymander in NY will push FL Republicans into a stronger gerrymander on their side like the DeSantis map. Doubtless NY Republicans and FL Democrats will sue each map in state court saying it's an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander. Then ~10 House seats and quite possibly control of the House would depend on how each court rules.

No such thing exists.

[compucomp]

I wonder if a strong 23-3 gerrymander in NY will push FL Republicans into a stronger gerrymander on their side like the DeSantis map. Doubtless NY Republicans and FL Democrats will sue each map in state court saying it's an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander. Then ~10 House seats and quite possibly control of the House would depend on how each court rules.

No such thing exists.

The NY and FL state constitutions have fair redistricting clauses. That's why they sue in state court. We'll find out, as Torie keeps alluding to, just how hackish and partisan these state Supreme Courts are.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I never saw why it would need to go into Manhattan. Maloney's proposal was probably meant to get Rose into congress. There would be a very left wing Brooklyn portion and then also a portion in Manhattan but Staten Island Democrats could still have the primary. Issue is there still are a few progressive leftovers and no one else wants those until you reach AOC who is too far away. The simplest solution is to give the Crane Husbands of NYC their seat by attaching them to Staten Island.

AOC is not too far away. Have you never looked at how NYC districts snake all over the place for no logical reason? AOCs district could easily be made to snake down from Astoria or wherever to pick up significant progressive parts of Brooklyn. That would not make for a logical or compact district of course, but NYC districts have never really been compact or logical.

You are, however, right that it would probably be more logical to simply put the progressive areas with Staten Island, and it is surprising that they are apparently not going to do so. Your supposition that it may be intended to help Rose makes sense.

[Tintrlvr]

I never saw why it would need to go into Manhattan. Maloney's proposal was probably meant to get Rose into congress. There would be a very left wing Brooklyn portion and then also a portion in Manhattan but Staten Island Democrats could still have the primary. Issue is there still are a few progressive leftovers and no one else wants those until you reach AOC who is too far away. The simplest solution is to give the Crane Husbands of NYC their seat by attaching them to Staten Island.

AOC is not too far away. Have you never looked at how NYC districts snake all over the place for no logical reason? AOCs district could easily be made to snake down from Astoria or wherever to pick up significant progressive parts of Brooklyn. That would not make for a logical or compact district of course, but NYC districts have never really been compact or logical.

You are, however, right that it would probably be more logical to simply put the progressive areas with Staten Island, and it is surprising that they are apparently not going to do so. Your supposition that it may be intended to help Rose makes sense.

AOC lives in the Bronx. Her district is not going to stretch all the way down to Park Slope.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I never saw why it would need to go into Manhattan. Maloney's proposal was probably meant to get Rose into congress. There would be a very left wing Brooklyn portion and then also a portion in Manhattan but Staten Island Democrats could still have the primary. Issue is there still are a few progressive leftovers and no one else wants those until you reach AOC who is too far away. The simplest solution is to give the Crane Husbands of NYC their seat by attaching them to Staten Island.

AOC is not too far away. Have you never looked at how NYC districts snake all over the place for no logical reason? AOCs district could easily be made to snake down from Astoria or wherever to pick up significant progressive parts of Brooklyn. That would not make for a logical or compact district of course, but NYC districts have never really been compact or logical.

You are, however, right that it would probably be more logical to simply put the progressive areas with Staten Island, and it is surprising that they are apparently not going to do so. Your supposition that it may be intended to help Rose makes sense.

AOC lives in the Bronx. Her district is not going to stretch all the way down to Park Slope.

AOC's base is in Astoria, not so much the Bronx, and that is more material than where she happens to live.

You are right that her district probably would not stretch all the way down to Park Slope (although it could), because there are simpler and easier ways to pack more Progressives into AOC's district, so as to protect other traditional politicians from progressive primary challenges. For example, give her territory that is closer to Astoria like in Greenpoint and Williamsburg, areas that no establishment politician really wants to represent and which are currently in other districts like Carolyn Maloney's and Nydia Velazquez's. Then you have those other districts which are closer to Park Slope such as Maloney's and Velazquez's crack the progressive vote down there.

[lfromnj]

I never saw why it would need to go into Manhattan. Maloney's proposal was probably meant to get Rose into congress. There would be a very left wing Brooklyn portion and then also a portion in Manhattan but Staten Island Democrats could still have the primary. Issue is there still are a few progressive leftovers and no one else wants those until you reach AOC who is too far away. The simplest solution is to give the Crane Husbands of NYC their seat by attaching them to Staten Island.

AOC is not too far away. Have you never looked at how NYC districts snake all over the place for no logical reason? AOCs district could easily be made to snake down from Astoria or wherever to pick up significant progressive parts of Brooklyn. That would not make for a logical or compact district of course, but NYC districts have never really been compact or logical.

You are, however, right that it would probably be more logical to simply put the progressive areas with Staten Island, and it is surprising that they are apparently not going to do so. Your supposition that it may be intended to help Rose makes sense.

AOC lives in the Bronx. Her district is not going to stretch all the way down to Park Slope.

AOC's base is in Astoria, not so much the Bronx, and that is more material than where she happens to live.

You are right that her district probably would not stretch all the way down to Park Slope (although it could), because there are simpler and easier ways to pack more Progressives into AOC's district, so as to protect other traditional politicians from progressive primary challenges. For example, give her territory that is closer to Astoria like in Greenpoint and Williamsburg, areas that no establishment politician really wants to represent and which are currently in other districts like Carolyn Maloney's and Nydia Velazquez's. Then you have those other districts which are closer to Park Slope such as Maloney's and Velazquez's crack the progressive vote down there.

So yeah rather than streching that district like that, why not just give the progs to Staten Island where they can get their own district when as long as they don't nominate a complete loon they should win everytime. And that was the solution that is being proposed by the legislature atleast according to rumors.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

So yeah rather than streching that district like that, why not just give the progs to Staten Island where they can get their own district when as long as they don't nominate a complete loon they should win everytime. And that was the solution that is being proposed by the legislature atleast according to rumors.

I agree that is more logical, it is just not what that memo which was posted a page or two back in this thread is talking about, with having Staten Island combined with part of Manhattan, that's all.

[lfromnj]

So yeah rather than streching that district like that, why not just give the progs to Staten Island where they can get their own district when as long as they don't nominate a complete loon they should win everytime. And that was the solution that is being proposed by the legislature atleast according to rumors.

I agree that is more logical, it is just not what that memo which was posted a page or two back in this thread is talking about, with having Staten Island combined with part of Manhattan, that's all.

That was the SPM memo which didn't make much sense.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

So yeah rather than streching that district like that, why not just give the progs to Staten Island where they can get their own district when as long as they don't nominate a complete loon they should win everytime. And that was the solution that is being proposed by the legislature atleast according to rumors.

I agree that is more logical, it is just not what that memo which was posted a page or two back in this thread is talking about, with having Staten Island combined with part of Manhattan, that's all.

That was the SPM memo which didn't make much sense.

SPM is the DCCC chair, so unless Demos are totally incompetent, they should have already coordinated between DCCC, the NY congressional delegation, and NY State legislative Dems and have already drawn the map and are simply describing the map that they already drew in the memo. That's what Republicans would do (and did do in other states like Texas).

Then again, these are elected Dems we are talking about here, so it is probably more likely that they are hopelessly incompetent and the state legislature will accidentally draw a Republican gerrymander.

[Zaybay]

So yeah rather than streching that district like that, why not just give the progs to Staten Island where they can get their own district when as long as they don't nominate a complete loon they should win everytime. And that was the solution that is being proposed by the legislature atleast according to rumors.

I agree that is more logical, it is just not what that memo which was posted a page or two back in this thread is talking about, with having Staten Island combined with part of Manhattan, that's all.

That was the SPM memo which didn't make much sense.

SPM is the DCCC chair, so unless Demos are totally incompetent, they should have already coordinated between DCCC, the NY congressional delegation, and NY State legislative Dems and have already drawn the map and are simply describing the map that they already drew in the memo. That's what Republicans would do (and did do in other states like Texas).

Then again, these are elected Dems we are talking about here, so it is probably more likely that they are hopelessly incompetent and the state legislature will accidentally draw a Republican gerrymander.

This is absolutely not what Republicans would do. There's instances where pressure from national groups have been applied on the map-making decisions of local politicians, but every time the local interests are what matters. Sometimes you see a similar interest between national and local, but most of the time the two conflict massively.

TX itself is a good example of this. Although the national and statewide parties agreed on overall objectives, shoring up their delegation, the map drawn by the statewide leaders was not looked upon favorably by national interests. National interests in MO and IN wanted vastly different maps compared to what the Rs got. Dems nationally were pushing for an 8-0 map, rather loudly I might add, and instead god a watershed 7-0-1. This is redistricting.

More likely, SPM is trying to exert a degree of influence on the map-making process. Its a good move, but its effectiveness is questionable. We'll find out in a couple of days.

[lfromnj]

Is there anything that even shows national Republicans are doing anything at all to influence redistricting this time around?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

TX itself is a good example of this. Although the national and statewide parties agreed on overall objectives, shoring up their delegation, the map drawn by the statewide leaders was not looked upon favorably by national interests. National interests in MO and IN wanted vastly different maps compared to what the Rs got. Dems nationally were pushing for an 8-0 map, rather loudly I might add, and instead god a watershed 7-0-1. This is redistricting.

The TX map was coordinated and drawn directly by Mike McCaul, representing national interests and the interests of the TX Congressional delegation, and state legislators. It is true that it was not coordinated with RRH, but McCaul represented national GOP interests on behalf of the TX Congressional delegation, not RRH. And of course, McCaul also managed to represent his own personal interests by giving himself a particularly safe and much more rural district. The reason why the TX map was not more aggressive was simply that it would not have been in the best interest of the national GOP to risk losing even more seats in Dem trending urban-suburban TX.