2020 New York Redistricting

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ZachReports/status/1485622230847475719?s=20

I assume the Dem's proposed another, perhaps even more biased map, and the GOP has just had enough. Of course they are playing into Dem hands here, but that might just be the only option.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1486408696414576646?s=20

Maps coming next week.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I’m thinking 22-4 map, similarish to what we currently have but NY-24 becomes safer for Ds, and NY-1, NY-11 get turned into narrow Biden seats the GOP could win, and NY-18 and NY-19 get shored up as much as possible. Rural R upstate seat is inevitably going to be cut. I don’t see the Rochester-Buffalo snake and an aggressive 22-3 happening.

[Gass3268]

Looks like they are going to shoot for 23-3.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1486472463932440577?s=20

[Roll Roons]

Watch them not go through with it.

[GALeftist]

I'm still skeptical of 23-3 coming to pass, but I think the signaling thus far has been unmistakable. The people who matter want an aggressive map.

[Oryxslayer]

If you actually read through the memo, it's like SPM and the insiders have already drawn a map and are just describing into the legislature.

[lfromnj]

Surprised by the Manhattan Staten island push. Always thought they would always have it take in Brooklyn Progs.

[Storr]

Surprised by the Manhattan Staten island push. Always thought they would always have it take in Brooklyn Progs.

"Who needs road continuity when there's the Staten Island ferry?" - whoever came up with that idea.

[lfromnj]

Surprised by the Manhattan Staten island push. Always thought they would always have it take in Brooklyn Progs.

"Who needs road continuity when there's the Staten Island ferry?" - whoever came up with that idea.

Yeah but someone has to take in those progressives now.

[Oryxslayer]

Surprised by the Manhattan Staten island push. Always thought they would always have it take in Brooklyn Progs.

"Who needs road continuity when there's the Staten Island ferry?" - whoever came up with that idea.

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1486476336793333764?s=20

I mean if any district has justification to use water crossing, its this one. 70K average riders per day on the ferry.

[Oryxslayer]

An interesting thing is the immediate effects of Katko's retirement. SPM does propose resurrecting the earmuffs, but not to create a third Dem seat between Rochester and Buffalo. No, the earmuffs are the Rochester seat. Instead, eastern Rochester and the suburbs would go with Syracuse connected by the shoreline towns and not much else. Most of Ithaca and Binghamton would go in NY-19.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1486491863322439680?s=20

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1486491863322439680?s=20

Yeah, that NY-22 isn't looking real safe. Even without Katko, I think Syracuse has some ticket splitters.

[Brittain33]

Holy sh!t, the Dems did NOT come to play with that memo

It only took two decades but Democrats have finally gotten good at the game pioneered by Tom Delay.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like a NY-11 Staten Island - Lower Manhattan District could theoretically be won by Sarah Davis type Republicans if partisanship was reduced and they played all their cards right (not gonna happen) as it seems like a very high-propensity, somewhat diverse, pragmatic professional family sort of district. They'd obv have to run up large margins in Staten Island and prolly cut down the margins in Lower Manhattan Suburbs such as Battery Park City. Would be funny though if Republicans somehow ended up representing lower Manhattan

[OBD]

Very, very pleasantly surprised. A beautiful fair map out of the Empire state!

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1486491863322439680?s=20

Yeah, that NY-22 isn't looking real safe. Even without Katko, I think Syracuse has some ticket splitters.

Seems like their goal was to make all the other upstate seats safe or likely D; if you try to redistribute NY-22 to even out partisanship you're gonna get a bunch of ~ Biden + 11 districts which could start getting iffy and certain incumbents would be really unhappy.

[Roll Roons]

I feel like a NY-11 Staten Island - Lower Manhattan District could theoretically be won by Sarah Davis type Republicans if partisanship was reduced and they played all their cards right (not gonna happen) as it seems like a very high-propensity, somewhat diverse, pragmatic professional family sort of district. They'd obv have to run up large margins in Staten Island and prolly cut down the margins in Lower Manhattan Suburbs such as Battery Park City. Would be funny though if Republicans somehow ended up representing lower Manhattan

Bring back the ghost of Guy Molinari! The district was Staten Island-Lower Manhattan when he first got elected to Congress in 1980.

[Sestak]

conceding 2 GOP upstate seats and then keeping one more middling Biden seats is probably the smarter play than trying to make all the other seats a little bit redder. Not really something for Dems to be particularly unhappy about

[Torie]

I guess the Dems assume the NYS high court is hack city, and the NYS Constitutional  provision that maps should not unduly favor one party is a dead letter. They are also assuming that the Dems in the state senate other than the false flag Simcha Felder perhaps, will vote unanimously for the map.

It becomes ever more clear to me that humans should not draw maps. The species is just too flawed to handle it. Black boxes should based on tight algorithms.

[Brittain33]

I guess the Dems assume the NYS high court is hack city, and the NYS Constitutional  provision that maps should not unduly favor one party is a dead letter. They are also assuming that the Dems in the state senate other than the false flag Simcha Felder perhaps, will vote unanimously for the map.

It becomes ever more clear to me that humans should not draw maps. The species is just too flawed to handle it. Black boxes should based on tight algorithms.

I'm hoping that the experience of IL and, perhaps, NY will lead more Republicans to the same conclusion.

[Nyvin]

I guess the Dems assume the NYS high court is hack city, and the NYS Constitutional  provision that maps should not unduly favor one party is a dead letter. They are also assuming that the Dems in the state senate other than the false flag Simcha Felder perhaps, will vote unanimously for the map.

It becomes ever more clear to me that humans should not draw maps. The species is just too flawed to handle it. Black boxes should based on tight algorithms.

It's not hard to imagine applying the Ohio SC's dissent ruling onto the New York map adjusted for state laws and come up with the same legal BS philosophies they used over there (Proportionality not mentioned anywhere so don't use it, what really is a competitive district, these words are so mysterious we should just ignore them, etc).

[Boobs]

Sarah Davis type Republicans

Where are you going to find one of those? They’re called “Democrats” nowadays and NY’s got closed primaries.

[Torie]

I guess the Dems assume the NYS high court is hack city, and the NYS Constitutional  provision that maps should not unduly favor one party is a dead letter. They are also assuming that the Dems in the state senate other than the false flag Simcha Felder perhaps, will vote unanimously for the map.

It becomes ever more clear to me that humans should not draw maps. The species is just too flawed to handle it. Black boxes should based on tight algorithms.

It's not hard to imagine applying the Ohio SC's dissent ruling onto the New York map adjusted for state laws and come up with the same legal BS philosophies they used over there (Proportionality not mentioned anywhere so don't use it, what really is a competitive district, these words are so mysterious we should just ignore them, etc).

All of which degrades the very basis of a society ruled by laws fairly applied as opposed to the persons who happen to have the power. It weakens the very foundations of a democratic society. This is a nadir period of all three branches of government, although obviously Biden was an uptick from Trump, but then that is a very low bar.