2020 New York Redistricting

[Roll Roons]

What happens to Kathleen Rice? Does her district get eliminated?

Doubt it, the district that gets eliminated is likely going to be upstate.  The estimates for the state itself was off quite a bit from the actual census, so the county data obviously was as well and might be difficult to tell the impact on where until we get further numbers.

NY-23 is the obvious pick and the most natural one as well for elimination.

I was thought it'd be NY-22 since it's in the middle of the state and everything can expand into it.

I thought most of NY-23 would get combined with NY-27 to create a deep-red sink, while NY-22 would get a lot bluer by picking up Tompkins.

[Roll Roons]

FWIW:
https://twitter.com/JosephSzymanski/status/1480675503451389953

[Roll Roons]

FWIW:
https://twitter.com/JosephSzymanski/status/1480675503451389953

Wow, Democrats are weak! Couldn't have seen this coming.

Take one look at my avatar and tell me with a straight face that Democrats are weak.

[Roll Roons]

Does Joe Szymanski have reliable sources? I thought he was one step above a laser-eyed Toomey stan.

Elections Daily, where he works, is now a part of DDHQ. So I would think he's better than the laser-eyes.

[Roll Roons]

Watch them not go through with it.

[Roll Roons]

I feel like a NY-11 Staten Island - Lower Manhattan District could theoretically be won by Sarah Davis type Republicans if partisanship was reduced and they played all their cards right (not gonna happen) as it seems like a very high-propensity, somewhat diverse, pragmatic professional family sort of district. They'd obv have to run up large margins in Staten Island and prolly cut down the margins in Lower Manhattan Suburbs such as Battery Park City. Would be funny though if Republicans somehow ended up representing lower Manhattan

Bring back the ghost of Guy Molinari! The district was Staten Island-Lower Manhattan when he first got elected to Congress in 1980.

[Roll Roons]

So TL;DR, Tenney gets screwed.

[Roll Roons]

NY-19 takes in Binghamton and Utica

Then we will burn Utica to the ground!

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1487901558490734598?cxt=HHwWjIC56bGli6YpAA...

Call me crazy but I think he could have held it for one more term.

[Roll Roons]

Maloney's district is only like Biden +8. I would probably cry with laughter if DCCC chair went down.

NY-11 is still somewhat of a question mark. What's the bluest district that Malliotakis could survive in?

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/EvanPerc_/status/1487901460050362374

NY-19 is definitely vulnerable with a candidate as good as Molinaro. NY-17 is worth watching with the rapid growth of the Orthodox Jewish population.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/EvanPerc_/status/1487901460050362374

NY-19 is definitely vulnerable with a candidate as good as Molinaro. NY-17 is worth watching with the rapid growth of the Orthodox Jewish population.

Nah, Molinaro is screwed.  He might as well drop out at this point tbh.

Biden +9 is not safe in an environment like this.

[Roll Roons]

Big yikes for them if this is true:
https://twitter.com/decunningham2/status/1487905503267246082?cxt=HHwWhMC-2YCLjaY...

[Roll Roons]

Jones has good relation with the Orthodox Jews and the local GOP doesn't have the best relation.

Didn't Rockland GOP literally run antisemitic ads scaremongering about the Hasidic community 'taking over the county? Clearly their growth will doom the Democrats in this seat.

If they did, that's an extremely stupid move on their move because Hasidic Jews could be an extremely potent bloc for the GOP in NY and NJ. They vote Republican at a higher rate than black people vote Democratic.

[Roll Roons]

Start spreading the news...

[Roll Roons]

Pretty disgusting perspective tbh.

Gerrymandering is always wrong with no exceptions. Democrats should try to actually win in New York rather than rig the game in their favor.

Yeah, when they manage to a lose a seat that Biden won by 15 points, that's indicative of a far deeper problem for NY Democrats that a gerrymander by itself would not be able to solve.

[Roll Roons]

Decision expected this afternoon.

[Roll Roons]

FWIW about NY-11: https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1735690406610829752

[Roll Roons]

Is the commission pledging not to change the old court map?

Objectively, the existing map is pretty good. I can see why they’d want to keep it similar to what it is rather than letting the legislature draw a disgusting gerrymander.

[Roll Roons]

Is the commission pledging not to change the old court map?

Objectively, the existing map is pretty good. I can see why they’d want to keep it similar to what it is rather than letting the legislature draw a disgusting gerrymander.

The Republicans may want it but the Dems on the commission may try to punt it to the legislature like Ohio's Republicans did.

One can only hope; the existing map is a piece of crap!

Why do you think the current map is bad? If you have actual reasoning, I’m more than willing to hear it out.

[Roll Roons]

I don’t believe that article. It’s describing a complete surrender to Republicans.

I mean yeah I could see Malliotakis or even LaLota get off easy, but they have pretty much zero incentive to spare Molinaro.

Yeah, it's really hard to draw a Trump district in that part of the central valley anyways; you'd be going very far out of your way to make either of NY-17 or NY-18 Safe D.

I don't think Molinaro would have a Trump district under this proposal. He probably gets something like Biden +2 compared to his current Biden +5.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/npfandos/status/1762321001944170954
Tweet language isn't 100% clear, but the article says NY-19 would be similar in partisanship to the district that Molinaro won in 2022.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/benj_rosenblatt/status/1762498488468963667?s=46

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/joncampbellny/status/1762862634150384054?s=46

[Roll Roons]

Wild how people think a map that’s likely DOA in the State Senate is gonna pass

You were saying?
https://twitter.com/joncampbellny/status/1762927705316589732?s=46