Arizona megathread

[Nyvin]

Hobbs won three of the Phoenix suburb seats by pretty big margins, and flipped SD-2 from Trump's 2020 win there.   She won 17 of 30 seats overall (winning SD-17 with a  few hundred votes).  I'd think the Republicans are pretty much guaranteed to lose the legislature the next time there's a good national environment for Democrats (which 2022 actually wasn't when looking at Dem turnout).

Arizona Senators and House reps both serve two year terms with 8 year term limits, so incumbency won't save Republicans forever either.

https://twitter.com/Jamal___James/status/1600003237842538496

[Skill and Chance]

Hobbs won three of the Phoenix suburb seats by pretty big margins, and flipped SD-2 from Trump's 2020 win there.   She won 17 of 30 seats overall (winning SD-17 with a  few hundred votes).  I'd think the Republicans are pretty much guaranteed to lose the legislature the next time there's a good national environment for Democrats (which 2022 actually wasn't when looking at Dem turnout).

Arizona Senators and House reps both serve two year terms with 8 year term limits, so incumbency won't save Republicans forever either.

https://twitter.com/Jamal___James/status/1600003237842538496

It's one of the less consequential legislatures anyway, between the redistricting commission, voter initiatives, and the supermajority requirement for anything that raises taxes.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This is the type of expose I was hoping we'd get for Oz too

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1602309869394083840

The nuttiest thing I pulled out of this article is that Kari Lake started putting together a transition team last fall. That's how confident she was. She even had a Chief of Staff picked out.

Also, the part about her crying when she realized she was going to lose gave me a major dopamine boost.

[2016]

2026 Hobbs vs Yee. Book it. Yee is an amazing Candidate. Hobbs will have a huge problem.

[Utah Neolib]

2026 Hobbs vs Yee. Book it. Yee is an amazing Candidate. Hobbs will have a huge problem.

2026. Hobbs vs Lake. Book it.

[NOVA Green]

This is the type of expose I was hoping we'd get for Oz too

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1602309869394083840

Thanks for posting wbrocks67, just came to this thread to post.

Here a link to the online print edition as well...

More meat with the potatoes, but hey here y'all go.

After Kari Lake rode former president Donald Trump’s endorsement to the Republican nomination for governor of Arizona, some of her aides and allies urged her to moderate her campaign to compete in the November election.

Advisers wanted her to focus less on Trump’s false claims of voter fraud and more on homelessness, water independence and border security, according to people familiar with their counsel. Business leaders recommended that she tone down her MAGA message to create a friendlier climate for capital. Republican strategists asked her to stop denigrating early ballots, a method of voting once critical to Republican victories in the state.

In an August meeting at the state party’s headquarters, GOP operatives delivered a warning, which was recalled by two attendees: Campaigns that failed to mobilize supporters to vote early would be at a disadvantage. After pushback from some members of Lake’s team, the candidate herself spoke up. She said that True The Vote, the Texas-based group pushing unfounded claims of voter fraud, had told her to instruct supporters to mail in their ballots — not put them in drop boxes — as a way to “confuse the Democrats.”

Interviews, internal documents and voting data point to the reasons behind her defeat: The candidate, so focused on parroting Trump and settling personal scores, failed to execute on a plan to court the independents and centrist Republicans who decide elections in Arizona, once a red state that now gleams purple.

As advisers urged her to consolidate GOP support after the primary, Lake remained fixated on a grudge match against people loyal to the legacy of the late Sen. John McCain. In the race’s closing days, she appeared in the suburbs alongside Stephen K. Bannon, the far-right radio host and former Trump strategist who was sentenced in October to four months in prison for contempt of Congress.

[Devout Centrist]

2026 Hobbs vs Yee. Book it. Yee is an amazing Candidate. Hobbs will have a huge problem.

Yee tried to run for Governor last year and flopped hard dude. Republicans didn’t want her.

[wbrocks67]

2026 Hobbs vs Yee. Book it. Yee is an amazing Candidate. Hobbs will have a huge problem.

Yee tried to run for Governor last year and flopped hard dude. Republicans didn’t want her.

Yeah, winning a primary will be hard for Yee. Not to mention, I won't say her performance wasn't impressive this year, but she also seemed to really benefit from being the only "sane" Republican on the ballot.

[Sir Mohamed]

2026 Hobbs vs Yee. Book it. Yee is an amazing Candidate. Hobbs will have a huge problem.

Yee tried to run for Governor last year and flopped hard dude. Republicans didn’t want her.

Yeah, winning a primary will be hard for Yee. Not to mention, I won't say her performance wasn't impressive this year, but she also seemed to really benefit from being the only "sane" Republican on the ballot.

Yup. And even if Yee manages to win the primary, Hobbs might be popular enough to win reelection, with 4 more years of trends in a state like AZ. Not surprising to read this from 2016, who tends to make hackish predictions.

[wbrocks67]

Not to mention, one of Hobbs' positives this year was how undivisive she was. So she has a really big chance here to cultivate a good image over the next 4 years, especially with AZ trending blue. She's not someone who seems like they'd incur a huge backlash from either side.

[xavier110]

2026 Hobbs vs Yee. Book it. Yee is an amazing Candidate. Hobbs will have a huge problem.

Yee would be a good GE candidate, which means AZ primary voters will run the other way.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So the AG recount is underway right now?

So.... has that happened or not??

Not yet.  Even though the recount is automatic, there are some silly bureaucratic hoops they have to jump through.  The SoS is required to petition the Maricopa County Superior Court to order the recounts in the races within 0.5% margin (AG, Superintendent, and LD 13).  That petition was filed yesterday evening after the certification was complete.  Counties have until 5pm Dec. 21 to certify their recount results, and they cannot release numbers, including daily vote totals, until they’ve been certified by the court.

To clarify, does each county release their totals once they're done, or do we have to wait for EVERY county to complete its counts before we get any results? I really hope it's the former, given that Pima seems almost done and Maricopa is well on its way.

Any update on this?

Right now, there are 3 counties that appear to have finished their recount and sent the results to the SoS (Apache, Gila, La Paz). Do we actually have those results somewhere, or will we only get them when every county is done?

[Devout Centrist]

Any update on this?

Right now, there are 3 counties that appear to have finished their recount and sent the results to the SoS (Apache, Gila, La Paz). Do we actually have those results somewhere, or will we only get them when every county is done?

Think we have to wait until all the votes are counted in order to get the final tally.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any update on this?

Right now, there are 3 counties that appear to have finished their recount and sent the results to the SoS (Apache, Gila, La Paz). Do we actually have those results somewhere, or will we only get them when every county is done?

Think we have to wait until all the votes are counted in order to get the final tally.

Ughh, all right. One more week of suspense then.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hobbs won three of the Phoenix suburb seats by pretty big margins, and flipped SD-2 from Trump's 2020 win there.   She won 17 of 30 seats overall (winning SD-17 with a  few hundred votes).  I'd think the Republicans are pretty much guaranteed to lose the legislature the next time there's a good national environment for Democrats (which 2022 actually wasn't when looking at Dem turnout).

Arizona Senators and House reps both serve two year terms with 8 year term limits, so incumbency won't save Republicans forever either.

https://twitter.com/Jamal___James/status/1600003237842538496

It really seems like even though Hobbs got a similar topline margin, she actually ran ahead him in most whiter left-shifting suburbs. The reason it was closer was because of lower Hispanic turnout.

Dems seemed to have a particularly good night in the outer Tucson suburbs, with Kelly almost winning AZ-06 by 10 points (was a statistical tie for 2020 Pres), almost a huge upset for state legistlature, and Engel putting up a respectable showing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

There's a hearing underway in Mark Finchem's lawsuit to overturn the election.  Live tweet thread is at https://twitter.com/arizonaslaw/status/1603793259578290177.  Sounds like it's not going well for Finchem's lawyer.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LOL. Delusion.

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1603914002597400576?t=Mj8F5WnVkdHra-cI...

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1603948254638608384

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1603948254638608384

These people are so obnoxious.

Was that judge a right or left-leaning one? Just a for fun question. Their lawsuits are so baseless and poorly preparated, even most conservative judges flat out dismiss them. Trump got 60 of them thrown out.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1603948254638608384

These people are so obnoxious.

Was that judge a right or left-leaning one? Just a for fun question. Their lawsuits are so baseless and poorly preparated, even most conservative judges flat out dismiss them. Trump got 60 of them thrown out.

All these judges are under Appellate jurisdiction under Kavangh, ACB and this is the same Appeals Crts that  put
out Trump 2020 baseless claim

In law school Appeals Crt Judges are under the Appellate jurisdiction of SCOTUS

It's not separate Appellate jurisdiction from SCOTUS state or Federal

Federalist meant Lincoln anyways opposition to slavery it became state rights with Reagan but it still was opposite of Dixiecrat

ACB is center right and so are Roberts and Kavanaugh

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1603948254638608384

These people are so obnoxious.

Was that judge a right or left-leaning one? Just a for fun question. Their lawsuits are so baseless and poorly preparated, even most conservative judges flat out dismiss them. Trump got 60 of them thrown out.

Judge: “So this is your entire complaint Mr. Minchem?”

*judge holds up a piece of printer paper with the word “FRAUD” printed in large black letters on it*

Finches: “Yes.”

Judge:… alright I’m retiring

[Ferguson97]

Why are Arizona Republicans the only ones still losing their minds over this? Even Mastriano conceded.

[Utah Neolib]

Why are Arizona Republicans the only ones still losing their minds over this? Even Mastriano conceded.

Compare the temperatures of Phoenix today to Philadelphia. Big difference. Heat causes anger and presumably grievance politics.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A++ thread title. Lol.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1603948254638608384

These people are so obnoxious.

Was that judge a right or left-leaning one? Just a for fun question. Their lawsuits are so baseless and poorly preparated, even most conservative judges flat out dismiss them. Trump got 60 of them thrown out.

Appointed by Ducey. So probably conservative but not a MAGA type.