Arizona megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

More from Lake's interview with Baier, which covers the drag queen story as well as voter fraud allegations.   Worth watching.

https://twitter.com/abughazalehkat/status/1541556000876109824

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1541875784628850688

It's too late for his name to be removed from the ballot.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jeremyduda/status/1544823902852894721

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1545041411858305026

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1547037679400927232

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hobbs is probably content to hang back and let Robson and Lake pound on each other.  I'm sure she'll be much more active after the primary.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Guess who Pence just endorsed?

Even better: both Trump and Pence will be in the state on the same day (Friday) to rally with their respective endorsees! 

The Trump rally is the one that was originally supposed to be last week, but was postponed due to Ivana Trump's death.

[GeorgiaModerate]

One thing I don't understand is why do folks assume Mastriano being such a bad candidate will make PA-GOV Lean D while Lake who is similar in many regards would still easily coast to re-election?

Anyways ye Hobbs optics haven't been great, especially after refusing to debate. Once this primary is over she really needs to step up her game.

There's a good chance Rs would lose the legislature in 2024 if Lake goes too crazy as governor.

Lake (bad as she is) is a better candidate than Mastriano, while Shapiro is better than Hobbs.

[GeorgiaModerate]

One thing I don't understand is why do folks assume Mastriano being such a bad candidate will make PA-GOV Lean D while Lake who is similar in many regards would still easily coast to re-election?

Anyways ye Hobbs optics haven't been great, especially after refusing to debate. Once this primary is over she really needs to step up her game.

There's a good chance Rs would lose the legislature in 2024 if Lake goes too crazy as governor.

Lake (bad as she is) is a better candidate than Mastriano, while Shapiro is better than Hobbs.

Shapiro is def better than Hobbs but what makes Lake better than Mastriano?

Perhaps I should have phrased it as Mastriano is worse than Lake.  They're both bad, but Mastriano has more strikes against him (association with anti-Semitists, J6 attendance, etc.) than Lake, who seems to be a more run-of-the-mill MAGA crazy.

Having said that, I definitely do not expect Lake to cruise to victory.  I think the race would be a tossup or tilt D with Lake, while Robson would be a slight favorite.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1553527719157149697

[GeorgiaModerate]

This involves a county-level race, but it shows how far down the rabbit hole some of the election conspiracy nuts have gone.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1553813320485851137

[GeorgiaModerate]

This lady is probably the Trumpiest woman I’ve ever seen. She’s basically like a female DeSantis except crazier. She also has a certain charisma to her that clearly comes from her many years as a media presence. If she wins (God help us) I wouldn’t be surprised to see her as Trump’s running mate. 

She's not even the Trumpiest one in the state; see State Senator Wendy Rogers.  The Arizona GOP seems to have an exceptional concentration of crazies at present.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1557758697555869700

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jeremyduda/status/1559623044812787712

And your bonus tidbit from the SoS race:

https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/1559566298706739201

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JamesSurowiecki/status/1560705864448737281

The other usual suspects in Arizona (Mark Finchem and Wendy Rogers) have also endorsed him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jeremyduda/status/1561108098479443968

[GeorgiaModerate]

Katie Hobbs is apparently trying to duck the debate.  I don't think that's a very good idea.  I understand that she's probably leery of the fact that Kari Lake is charismatic and extremely comfortable in front of a camera, but she's still espousing loony BS and with any sort of prep Hobbs should be able to expose her.

Running from the debate would send a really bad sign to the electorate and give Lake a huge line of attack.  Hobbs got away with doing it in the primary because she was a prohibitive favorite, but I don't think that will work here.  The debate will have a huge audience, and Hobbs absolutely needs to take the opportunity to try and inject some sanity.

I think it's always a bad idea for candidates to duck debates, although those who are prohibitive favorites (which Hobbs certainly isn't) can probably get away with it.  As you say, it sends a bad message to the voters.

[GeorgiaModerate]

OK, I was wondering why so many Arizona politicians were endorsing in an Oklahoma legislature race.  All becomes clear now:

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1561236606434041856

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/1562858019494719489

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1563228007455526912

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/patriottakes/status/1568669416359079938

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/UrbanAchievr/status/1570047350801940480

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1570249081125228544

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1570887898819624962

Perhaps not an optimal message for a swing state.

[GeorgiaModerate]

2016: just keep telling yourself that student loan relief will cost the Democrats in November.  You won't convince any of the rest of us, but if it makes you feel better then have at it.