Arizona megathread

[ProgressiveModerate]

The AZ GOP really seems to be imploding rn, especially if Lake wins.

They aren't even making a half baked effort to appeal to voters outside their base which even in a good year overall for the GOP they'll likely still need.

I wouldn't be suprised if soon AZ has 2 D senators, a 5D-4R House delegation, dem majorities in both chambers, and Dems in most row offices. Ofc Rs will likely hold the state supreme court for a while which is quite conservative and 7-0 conservative majority. One thing I am unhappy about is the new AZ congressional map doesn't give Dems a lot of room to grow past 5 representatives.

With the main difference of slightly lower education and just being more historically conservative, AZ is quite simillar to CO demographically, and geopolitically, being a mostly urban state with a lot of conservative suburbs and exurbs.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The AZ GOP really seems to be imploding rn, especially if Lake wins.

They aren't even making a half baked effort to appeal to voters outside their base which even in a good year overall for the GOP they'll likely still need.

I wouldn't be suprised if soon AZ has 2 D senators, a 5D-4R House delegation, dem majorities in both chambers, and Dems in most row offices. Ofc Rs will likely hold the state supreme court for a while which is quite conservative and 7-0 conservative majority. One thing I am unhappy about is the new AZ congressional map doesn't give Dems a lot of room to grow past 5 representatives.

With the main difference of slightly lower education and just being more historically conservative, AZ is quite simillar to CO demographically, and geopolitically, being a mostly urban state with a lot of conservative suburbs and exurbs.

I wasn't thrilled with the new AZ map initially, but there's a good chance it looks better by the end of the decade. If Stanton holds on this year, AZ-04 is almost certainly safe for the rest of the decade considering it's already fairly blue and rapidly trending further in that direction. Biden won both AZ-01 and AZ-06 and both seats trended blue by a not insignificant amount in 2020. If those trends continue, a Democratic majority in the House delegation could end up being pretty durable by the end of the decade.

Still by then, AZ Wouk Ds prolly be a true D leaning state, and there 6th seat is slim pickings as AZ-02 is pretty hyper partisan with no strong D gain potential and AZ-08 is p R.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The AZ GOP really seems to be imploding rn, especially if Lake wins.

They aren't even making a half baked effort to appeal to voters outside their base which even in a good year overall for the GOP they'll likely still need.

I wouldn't be suprised if soon AZ has 2 D senators, a 5D-4R House delegation, dem majorities in both chambers, and Dems in most row offices. Ofc Rs will likely hold the state supreme court for a while which is quite conservative and 7-0 conservative majority. One thing I am unhappy about is the new AZ congressional map doesn't give Dems a lot of room to grow past 5 representatives.

The bolded will be considerably more difficult; the maps adopted by the redistricting commissions are decidedly not D friendly. Statewide wins, though, entirely possible.

I mean in a normal year they should have 3 seats in a bag and both AZ-01 and AZ-06 are narrowly Biden and have been shifting hard left, especially AZ-01. A 6th seat is trickier to see.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hobbs declined to participate in the Dem debate, which I somewhat understand, since she will easily win the primary against Lopez.

HOWEVER, she is a terrible speaker and debater and needs as much practice as possible to fend off Lake or Robson. Both will likely walk all over her in a general.

She’s been running a lackadaisical campaign. Her unwillingness to be tested is going to lead to her downfall — and perhaps an even more embarrassing performance at the polls against a GOP nominee who will have flaws to exploit.

Imo, her problem will likely be one of turnout, Hobbs comes across as sane but not particularly inspiring or exciting as a candidate. Furthermore, we already saw Biden struggle with Hispanic voters in 2020 and his issues have only seen to have grown throughout his first term which could also create problems for Hobbs, though tbf, AZ Hispanics are relatively Urban compared to other Southwest states.

In a her of her vs Lake, I think she'd get Bidenish numbers in educated suburbs like Scottsdale but would struggle with Hispanics both in terms of margin and turnout, ultimately costing her. Furthermore, it'll be interesting to see how she does with Native American voters; Ducey had some very solid performances with certain tribes in 2018 and I wonder if any of that carries over to 2022.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The AZ GOP really seems to be imploding rn, especially if Lake wins.

They aren't even making a half baked effort to appeal to voters outside their base which even in a good year overall for the GOP they'll likely still need.

I wouldn't be suprised if soon AZ has 2 D senators, a 5D-4R House delegation, dem majorities in both chambers, and Dems in most row offices. Ofc Rs will likely hold the state supreme court for a while which is quite conservative and 7-0 conservative majority. One thing I am unhappy about is the new AZ congressional map doesn't give Dems a lot of room to grow past 5 representatives.

With the main difference of slightly lower education and just being more historically conservative, AZ is quite simillar to CO demographically, and geopolitically, being a mostly urban state with a lot of conservative suburbs and exurbs.

Yes, I'm sure Democrats are going to win AZ-1, AZ-6 and the state legislature in a R+6 environment with Biden deeply unpopular because "muh candidate quality"

This forum is such a Democratic wishcast it's not even funny. Nobody cares about what some Republican said months ago when the economy is sh**t

I don't think they will win any of those races, especially in an R + 6 environment. However, I think Republican margins for a lot of key races will be relatively embarrassing given the environment, even if they win those races.

Long term though, what upside is there for the GOP in Arizona? It's a heavily urban state with a major growing metro that has consistantly shifting left. The GOP has traditionally relied heavily relied on suburban communities, many of which have lots of college graduates, to win the state. Recently the GOP has been having problems with this group and running people like Lake certainly doesn't help.

In order for the GOP to keep AZ in play long term, they themselves will have to change in order to appeal to a more diverse, urban, and educated base.

The one good thing for them is liberal Tucson is growing slower than the rest of the state, and many of the fastest growing suburbs are some of the reddest. However, they have also gotten a lot less red in recent years, likely due to this growth, so it's a bit of a paradox.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Hispanics shift in Arizona the way they've shifted in Florida and New Mexico, the state will once more be unwinnable for Democrats.

Firstly, the Hispanic shift in NM was not too bad in 2020, even Dona Ana County shifted left from 2016. Seems like the biggest R shifts in the state were in depopulating native American communities

And AZ Hispanics did still have a notable rightwards swing in 2020, but due to being concetrated in mostly urban areas, turnout increase more than made up for it.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1545041411858305026

No suprise, but Karrin's campaign has been really underwhelming and a bit embarrassing. She's trying to run in the lane of "fiscally conservative Reagan Republcian" while still feeding into a lot of the conspiracy and culture wars on the far right.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is anyone covering Hobbs? I know her primary is much more secure but I feel like no one posts about anything she's doing.

Honestly, it seems like rn her campaign hasn't been particularly impressive. She really seems to be betting on a Lake win in the primary and running on "I'm sane". I suspect once she knows who she's runnung against things will really ramp up as usual.

[ProgressiveModerate]

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah, this is bordering on Tilt D if Lake wins the primary.

You cannot go into an election in a purple state, even this year, with the endorsement of people like MTG (and actively talking about liking that endorsement)

I think if Rs lose competative races in 2022 with the far right Trumpy canidates, we may see a reverse of Dems post-2020 where they really slapped themselves in the face for things like defund the police. How big of an impact it actually has though is hard to say, especially since overall congressional Dems pretty much matched Biden in 2020.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Maybe Democrats should run ads saying something along the lines of "Kari Lake stands with Trump. She will not let democrats steal any more elections. She will not bend to the woke mob. Having Katie Hobbs as governor would be like having a third term of Doug Ducey."

They can make the ads seem as if they are coming from the Lake campaign or a GOP group, but tie Hobbs to Ducey (as if it were a bad thing).

It might be a way to help attract independents and moderate non-Trumpy republicans to vote for Hobbs.

The “third term of Ducey” attack would work way better for Robson than Lake.

Robson would be easy to attack generally cause she just has a very weak political compass. You can’t run on a campaign of being the “normal” and “sane” conservative while still feeding into all the bs. She’s always extremely careful with her words and it comes off as disingenuous.

Lake is just east to attack because she’s such a nutjob

[ProgressiveModerate]

Fun fact: Since 1990, with the exception of 2018, Arizona elected a governor to the opposite party of the incumbent president.

And 2018 wasn’t even that close

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing I don't understand is why do folks assume Mastriano being such a bad candidate will make PA-GOV Lean D while Lake who is similar in many regards would still easily coast to re-election?

Anyways ye Hobbs optics haven't been great, especially after refusing to debate. Once this primary is over she really needs to step up her game.

There's a good chance Rs would lose the legislature in 2024 if Lake goes too crazy as governor.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing I don't understand is why do folks assume Mastriano being such a bad candidate will make PA-GOV Lean D while Lake who is similar in many regards would still easily coast to re-election?

Anyways ye Hobbs optics haven't been great, especially after refusing to debate. Once this primary is over she really needs to step up her game.

There's a good chance Rs would lose the legislature in 2024 if Lake goes too crazy as governor.

Lake (bad as she is) is a better candidate than Mastriano, while Shapiro is better than Hobbs.

Shapiro is def better than Hobbs but what makes Lake better than Mastriano?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'd say Hobbs is a mediocre candidate - better than Garcia, but she also comes with her own baggage. Her response to the Talonya Adams scandal was inelegant and it may foreshadow trouble dealing with negative press on the campaign trail. That being said, few people expected her to win back in 2018. If she can make this campaign about abortion + Lake's excesses and tie herself to someone like Mark Kelly, she has a decent shot of winning.

I'm still confused as to how this is the thinking though? Lake is an extremist while Hobbs is a moderate Democrat incumbent in a purple state that is trending blue.

I think the main issue is the terrible political environment for Democrats coupled with uncertainty about how the race will actually shake out during the latter days of the campaign. Arizona is still a Republican leaning state, make no mistake. It's not Pennsylvania.

It's not PA, but in 2020 it voted less than a point to the right of it, and generally Rs have been gaining in PA while Dems have been gaining in AZ. You'd expect both states to be relatively similar in their competitiveness in most environments, though low Hispanic turnout is more of a risk in AZ than PA where the Dem base is more reliable.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'd say Hobbs is a mediocre candidate - better than Garcia, but she also comes with her own baggage. Her response to the Talonya Adams scandal was inelegant and it may foreshadow trouble dealing with negative press on the campaign trail. That being said, few people expected her to win back in 2018. If she can make this campaign about abortion + Lake's excesses and tie herself to someone like Mark Kelly, she has a decent shot of winning.

I'm still confused as to how this is the thinking though? Lake is an extremist while Hobbs is a moderate Democrat incumbent in a purple state that is trending blue.

I think the main issue is the terrible political environment for Democrats coupled with uncertainty about how the race will actually shake out during the latter days of the campaign. Arizona is still a Republican leaning state, make no mistake. It's not Pennsylvania.

It's not PA, but in 2020 it voted less than a point to the right of it, and generally Rs have been gaining in PA while Dems have been gaining in AZ.

I think the story is more complicated than that - yeah, Democrats have come a long way down here, but they're in free fall in non-Native rural parts of the state and there's still a risk that the Mexican-American vote could start slipping away from Democrats. Certainly it's a lot more competitive than it used to be, but I don't think comparisons with PA are appropriate just yet.

Tbf non-Native rural AZ is a relatively small chunk of the states population and at least in theory suburban gains would easily offset that as they have.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This will come down to turnout. I'm convinced if the entire 2020 electorate all got to vote right now Lake would lose, however, low Hispanic turnout could really doom Dems.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think the best thing Hobbs could do if either Lake or Robson wins the primary is run Fetterman style campaign exposing how both of them are disingenuous and very opportunistic. Lake prior to Trump was a very different person politically, and Robson keeps trying to play both sides when it comes to the Republican primary.

The issue is Hobbs personality is pretty flat but if she's smart she could use that to her advantage, especially against Lake

[ProgressiveModerate]

Credit where credit is due, whoever edited that really put in the effort to have the heads rotate with the bodies.

But think about it this way; that's the equivalent of Hobbs making a similar edit of her with Sanders, Biden, Warren, and AOC. It just creates the opportunity for Lake to be more associated with people who may be problematic for her.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Obviously this would never happen but it’d be funny if Lake keeps spewing lies about election fraud, if Hobbs starts to question Lake’s win and does an “investigation” in to it.

[ProgressiveModerate]

LMAO, if only there was as much outrage over Republicans/RGA supporting election deniers as there was Democrats throwing a few dollars at an ad touting how crazy they are.

Ducey is just as craven, if not more so.

Ducey comes across as a really Douchey guy. Yes he’s sane, but when it’s politically genetically to him and he full well knows the consequences of Lake. Doug Douchey.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One underrated discussion is despite Lake only narrowly beating Robson, she won every County and did about the same everywhere in the state. To be fair Robson won the new AZ-01 but only very narrowly, and stereotypically, that's the district that most embodies establishment/"moderate" Republicans.

Yet Hobbs despite winning in a 50+ point landslide lost heavily Hispanic Santa Cruz County to her Hispanic Challenger Marco Lopez. She also came close to losing Yuma, another heavily Hispanic border County.

I feel like this is somewhat telling. Even though it seems like the GOP base in many ways is more divided due to the primary being much more contested, Dem support tends to be much more regionally and racially polarized.

It also brings up the question will Hobbs suffer with Hispanics or did Hispanics vote this way purely cause of the Lopez's Hispanic name?

I'd be very curious come November who wins the new AZ-01 and AZ-06 for Governor, especially since most have these as pretty solid Republican victories on the Congressional level. Hobbs probably needs to run up the margins in the Pheonix suburbs, especially since I think it'll be hard for her (or frankly anyone) to sustain the Hispanic turnout needed to win on 2020 margins. It's simillar to how Sinema and Kelly both won their Senate races by virtually identical margins yet Sinema did better than Kelly margin wise basically everywhere except the area of the old AZ-02 which McSally represented. 2018 turnout in the Hispanic parts of the state were just low.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also aren't here comments somewhat endorsing the idea of the patriarchy in politics (yet she's a woman running for Gov). Generally, you wouldn't refer to a woman, especially a conservative woman, as having "BDE"

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also aren't here comments somewhat endorsing the idea of the patriarchy in politics (yet she's a woman running for Gov). Generally, you wouldn't refer to a woman, especially a conservative woman, as having "BDE"

Kari Lake wanted to praise DeSantis and Trump in some way and seems not to have thought through her remarks here.

Prolly. Btw nice cock man.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/jeremyduda/status/1561108098479443968

"If they're accuarte"? She really talks like she's living in an alternative reality.