Arizona megathread (user search)
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Author Topic: Arizona megathread  (Read 67207 times)
Devout Centrist
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Posts: 10,102
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Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
« on: July 01, 2022, 10:30:39 PM »

The AZ GOP really seems to be imploding rn, especially if Lake wins.

They aren't even making a half baked effort to appeal to voters outside their base which even in a good year overall for the GOP they'll likely still need.

I wouldn't be suprised if soon AZ has 2 D senators, a 5D-4R House delegation, dem majorities in both chambers, and Dems in most row offices. Ofc Rs will likely hold the state supreme court for a while which is quite conservative and 7-0 conservative majority. One thing I am unhappy about is the new AZ congressional map doesn't give Dems a lot of room to grow past 5 representatives.
The bolded will be considerably more difficult; the maps adopted by the redistricting commissions are decidedly not D friendly. Statewide wins, though, entirely possible.
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Devout Centrist
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Posts: 10,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
« Reply #1 on: July 02, 2022, 09:32:02 PM »

If Hispanics shift in Arizona the way they've shifted in Florida and New Mexico, the state will once more be unwinnable for Democrats.
Urban Mexican Americans are less likely to slip away from the Democrats, imo. Maybe we'll see some kind of backlash this fall, but the situation is nowhere near as dire here as it is in South Texas.
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Devout Centrist
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*****
Posts: 10,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
« Reply #2 on: July 25, 2022, 11:32:21 AM »
« Edited: July 25, 2022, 12:09:47 PM by Devout Centrist »

Given that AZ's situation is similar to PA's, in that the GOP primaries on both sides are contentious and the Dem only has 1 real race, and even that one is pretty much locked up, I'm surprised to see Dem turnout so high, and beating GOP's in turnout % and raw #s.

Isn't AZ usually largely mail-in/early vote state vs. election day?


Republicans should close this gap by Election Day. It’s likely they’ll have more % turnout than Democrats once late mail-ins and Election Day votes are factored in. Does this tell us anything about what’ll happen in November? No.
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Devout Centrist
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*****
Posts: 10,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
« Reply #3 on: July 29, 2022, 04:49:46 PM »
« Edited: July 29, 2022, 05:05:06 PM by Devout Centrist »

I'd say Hobbs is a mediocre candidate - better than Garcia, but she also comes with her own baggage. Her response to the Talonya Adams scandal was inelegant and it may foreshadow trouble dealing with negative press on the campaign trail. That being said, few people expected her to win back in 2018. If she can make this campaign about abortion + Lake's excesses and tie herself to someone like Mark Kelly, she has a decent shot of winning.
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Devout Centrist
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*****
Posts: 10,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
« Reply #4 on: July 29, 2022, 07:24:49 PM »

I'd say Hobbs is a mediocre candidate - better than Garcia, but she also comes with her own baggage. Her response to the Talonya Adams scandal was inelegant and it may foreshadow trouble dealing with negative press on the campaign trail. That being said, few people expected her to win back in 2018. If she can make this campaign about abortion + Lake's excesses and tie herself to someone like Mark Kelly, she has a decent shot of winning.

I'm still confused as to how this is the thinking though? Lake is an extremist while Hobbs is a moderate Democrat incumbent in a purple state that is trending blue.
I think the main issue is the terrible political environment for Democrats coupled with uncertainty about how the race will actually shake out during the latter days of the campaign. Arizona is still a Republican leaning state, make no mistake. It's not Pennsylvania.
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Devout Centrist
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*****
Posts: 10,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
« Reply #5 on: July 29, 2022, 09:00:35 PM »

I'd say Hobbs is a mediocre candidate - better than Garcia, but she also comes with her own baggage. Her response to the Talonya Adams scandal was inelegant and it may foreshadow trouble dealing with negative press on the campaign trail. That being said, few people expected her to win back in 2018. If she can make this campaign about abortion + Lake's excesses and tie herself to someone like Mark Kelly, she has a decent shot of winning.

I'm still confused as to how this is the thinking though? Lake is an extremist while Hobbs is a moderate Democrat incumbent in a purple state that is trending blue.
I think the main issue is the terrible political environment for Democrats coupled with uncertainty about how the race will actually shake out during the latter days of the campaign. Arizona is still a Republican leaning state, make no mistake. It's not Pennsylvania.

It's not PA, but in 2020 it voted less than a point to the right of it, and generally Rs have been gaining in PA while Dems have been gaining in AZ.
I think the story is more complicated than that - yeah, Democrats have come a long way down here, but they're in free fall in non-Native rural parts of the state and there's still a risk that the Mexican-American vote could start slipping away from Democrats. Certainly it's a lot more competitive than it used to be, but I don't think comparisons with PA are appropriate just yet.
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Devout Centrist
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*****
Posts: 10,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
« Reply #6 on: July 30, 2022, 11:39:53 AM »

Quote
She’s actually very astute, very conniving, and very charismatic. She is a loon and will say some nuts things, but she’s in no means a “bad” candidate.
I think you are too deferential to Lake here. She has the capacity to be astute, charismatic, and so on, but she also has baggage of her own and her past smacks of opportunism, too. I worry that Hobbs isn’t the best person to exploit these attacks, but there’s certainly no shortage of material for her to choose from.
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Devout Centrist
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Posts: 10,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
« Reply #7 on: July 31, 2022, 03:57:05 PM »

This involves a county-level race, but it shows how far down the rabbit hole some of the election conspiracy nuts have gone.


Richer really should consider switching parties - the invective is only going to get worse as 2024 approaches.
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Devout Centrist
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*****
Posts: 10,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
« Reply #8 on: August 02, 2022, 10:11:19 PM »

Robson up in the early returns; will be interesting to see how much eday favors Lake.
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Devout Centrist
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*****
Posts: 10,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
« Reply #9 on: August 03, 2022, 01:32:10 AM »

Quote
Now that it seems Robson has won
I don’t mean to come off like a dick, but it’s not over yet - this thing is gonna come down to the wire.
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Devout Centrist
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*****
Posts: 10,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
« Reply #10 on: August 03, 2022, 12:11:12 PM »

I don’t know how you can pivot away from demonic possession, but I’m sure Lake will do everything in her power to deflect and change the topic.
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Devout Centrist
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*****
Posts: 10,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
« Reply #11 on: August 04, 2022, 10:43:57 PM »

CNN called it too. Uggh, guess we're stuck with her for 3 months.
If we're lucky, it'll just be three months.
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Devout Centrist
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*****
Posts: 10,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
« Reply #12 on: August 08, 2022, 10:28:04 PM »


Now this does put a smile on my face
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Devout Centrist
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*****
Posts: 10,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
« Reply #13 on: August 15, 2022, 09:34:59 AM »
« Edited: August 15, 2022, 09:38:13 AM by Devout Centrist »

“Let’s make this a referendum on Sleepy Joe.”

“Okay, what are you solutions to the ongoing drought?”

“President Trump has been the most unfairly treated President EVER!”

“Uh alright, where do you stand on abortion?”

“The 2020 Election was completely and totally rigged!”

“…do you have any plans to deal with the cost of living crisis?”

“DESANTIS HAS A BIG C.OCK!!!”

“…”
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Devout Centrist
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*****
Posts: 10,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
« Reply #14 on: August 16, 2022, 07:32:51 PM »

Let's check in on the Lake campaign to see what attacks they're going with this cycle:



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Devout Centrist
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*****
Posts: 10,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
« Reply #15 on: August 17, 2022, 01:43:04 PM »

This is the state I am dooming the most about. Katie Hobbs needs to step up her game and start hitting the campaign trail. Thus far, she has run a nonexistent campaign.
She’s been on the trail for much of the past two weeks. What are you talking about?
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Devout Centrist
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*****
Posts: 10,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
« Reply #16 on: August 26, 2022, 10:09:25 AM »



Bold choice. There are signs all over the valley from Hamadeh that say ENDORSED BY TRUMP in big white letters.
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Devout Centrist
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*****
Posts: 10,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
« Reply #17 on: August 27, 2022, 01:28:17 PM »

I don't really agree with Hobbs' decision to avoid the debates, but I can understand it. Hammering Lake on abortion is probably the best route of attack for her campaign.
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Devout Centrist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
« Reply #18 on: August 28, 2022, 09:07:44 PM »

This has been discussed before but migrants from Cali to Arizona are still extremely unlikely to skew R as a whole, even if they prolly are more conservative than Cali as a whole. I think folks overestimate the number of folks who choose to move in large part because of politics.
Case in point: I moved from California to Arizona.
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Devout Centrist
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*****
Posts: 10,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
« Reply #19 on: September 07, 2022, 08:38:37 PM »

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Devout Centrist
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*****
Posts: 10,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
« Reply #20 on: September 11, 2022, 01:37:23 AM »

fwiw Lake would be eaten alive for this bullsh.it outside of AZ. The local news angle is her saving grace here.
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Devout Centrist
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*****
Posts: 10,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
« Reply #21 on: September 11, 2022, 05:20:49 PM »

I've seen a good number of anti-Lake/pro-Hobbs digital ads. Maybe Hobbs is waiting to make TV ad buys? I'm not sure.
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Devout Centrist
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*****
Posts: 10,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
« Reply #22 on: September 11, 2022, 06:11:20 PM »

At this point, Hobbs probably has the same chance of winning as Stacey Abrams.
No?
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Devout Centrist
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*****
Posts: 10,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
« Reply #23 on: September 13, 2022, 02:31:16 PM »

Tying into what I said earlier and about what was asked about Kelly-Lake voters?  My parents, for two.  They're just in love with her.  I managed to cajole them into voting for Biden, and they really like Mark Kelly, but I can't currently dissuade them from voting for "Kari.
How did you convince them to vote for Biden in 2020?
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Devout Centrist
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*****
Posts: 10,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
« Reply #24 on: September 14, 2022, 11:36:47 AM »

What a mess of a candidate Hobbs is turning out to be. She is gonna lose this race against that nutcase Lake

Agreed. I’m calling the election likely R at this point.
Likely R? Likely R? You are delusional. This is Safe R.
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