Arizona megathread

[Utah Neolib]

Fun fact: Since 1990, with the exception of 2018, Arizona elected a governor to the opposite party of the incumbent president.

[Utah Neolib]

Maybe Democrats should run ads saying something along the lines of "Kari Lake stands with Trump. She will not let democrats steal any more elections. She will not bend to the woke mob. Having Katie Hobbs as governor would be like having a third term of Doug Ducey."

They can make the ads seem as if they are coming from the Lake campaign or a GOP group, but tie Hobbs to Ducey (as if it were a bad thing).

It might be a way to help attract independents and moderate non-Trumpy republicans to vote for Hobbs.

The “third term of Ducey” attack would work way better for Robson than Lake.

[Utah Neolib]

Assuming Kari Lake is the nominee, which seems like a pretty safe assumption now, this is going to be an interesting campaign.

As an Arizonan, I may sound like a broken record on this, but we've seen Kari Lake for 20 years or so every night on the news.  She is, or at least was, one of the most well-known and trusted media personalities around.  The rest of the country may have only seen the recent lunatic persona, but that's not what a lot of people around here think.

Until maybe 2018 or so, she seemed to be fairly liberal in her social media, etc.  She praised Obama and attacked Trump.  And then, for some reason, she lurched to the right.  Did Trump and/or the pandemic drive her nuts?  Did she suddenly decide she really wanted to be governor and that this was the best path there?  Who knows.

And so that leaves me wondering, what kind of campaign is she going to run from here on?  Unlike a lot of people (Masters, etc), she could credibly moderate if she wanted to.  Even Robson kept attacking her as a "closet liberal."  The recent drag queen kerfluffle, where she attacked Drag Queen Story Hours and then was "outed" as having been close friends with a drag queen a few years ago, just goes to show how different she was not too long ago.

But does she even WANT to moderate herself?  Maybe she is genuinely nuts and not just spewing what she thinks the Trumpanzees want to hear.  I guess we'll find out soon enough.

My hunch: She will not run away from any crazy position she’s already taken.

However, she will pivot and couch things with transitions like, “Stop asking me about such a controversial and personal issue like abortion and instead focus on the failings of the Biden administration at the border and at your pocketbook” yadda yadda yadda. She will also try to relate to independents and say she’s undergone a political evolution throughout her life and maybe even own the Obama vote, lol.

When asked she will still say 2020 was illegitimate and there was fraud and that reporters are the enemy and so on

Didn’t she already say that she will refuse to pivot the slightest bit for the general election? I recall seeing that somewhere.

[Utah Neolib]

Yeah I seriously don't think Finchem will win. He's literally the most extreme candidate in the entire country at this point, and that's saying something.

Usually SoS elections are low profile but this one is certainly not. Fontes probably is a better democratic nominee than Bolding was as Fontes had a much clearer message and overall campaign. I’m not discounting the stupidity of voters, but writing this off as just another SoS election where voters don’t know much about either of the candidates appears to be wrong.

[Utah Neolib]

If Fontes is actually leading in the SOS race, Hobbs and Kelly are probably better positioned.

Yes and no.  Kelly is clearly in the driver's seat in his race and will likely lead the AZ Democratic ticket this year, but I think Fontes will probably outrun Hobbs by a few points.

I don’t think a Lake/Fontes/Hamadeh/Kelly victory is impossible by any means. There’s probably some low info Lake voters who may vote D on some down ballot races.

[Utah Neolib]

If Fontes is actually leading in the SOS race, Hobbs and Kelly are probably better positioned.

Yes and no.  Kelly is clearly in the driver's seat in his race and will likely lead the AZ Democratic ticket this year, but I think Fontes will probably outrun Hobbs by a few points.

I don’t think a Lake/Fontes/Hamadeh/Kelly victory is impossible by any means. There’s probably some low info Lake voters who may vote D on some down ballot races.

If Lake wins it’s because it’s a wave. Let’s dispel with this fiction that her being a former news anchor will magically wave away all the stupid sh**t she’s done in the primary and beyond hollering about the election being stolen.

I’m not underestimating the stupidity of voters. Hobbs seems to consistently underperform Kelly, and Lake actually has leads in some polls (albeit narrowly).

[Utah Neolib]

Bro all Hobbs needs to do is call lake a Sussy Baka

Then she has this in the bag 100%

sussus amgous

[Utah Neolib]

Why is Lake holding up so much better than Mastriano?

Because she was a former TV News anchor, and with that comes a much more familiar and warm face than the unknown white supremacist looking Mastriano. Even if she has the same policies, people see her as less of a threat. There’s voters out there, who are voters who would generally vote against a person with Lake’s policies but like ‘Kari’ enough that they’ll vote for her. It’s pathetic, but true.

[Utah Neolib]

Afaik, this means a net pickup of +3 governorships for the Dems this cycle, correct?

No? The governorships are net even. Lombardo won, and Hobbs won. Every incumbent other than Sisolak won.

[Utah Neolib]

Afaik, this means a net pickup of +3 governorships for the Dems this cycle, correct?

No? The governorships are net even. Lombardo won, and Hobbs won. Every incumbent other than Sisolak won.

MD and MA were Safe D flips.

I guess that became so normal in my head I forgot those were flips. Haha.

[Utah Neolib]

Do we have any idea what the remaining Maricopa ballots look like? I really hope Mayes wins.

[Utah Neolib]

Is Fontes a possible future contender for Governor or Senator?

He’s by far the most likely next democratic governor of Arizona. Of course, that’ll happen in 2031 which is almost a decade away.

[Utah Neolib]

Does that mean that Hobbs will get to appoint a Lt. Governor or one would just be elected in 2026?

I believe one would be elected in the 2026 election, and I think the proposal made it so they are elected on the same ticket and that the Lieutenant Governor is a staff member in the governors office (such as chief of staff).

[Utah Neolib]

Does that mean that Hobbs will get to appoint a Lt. Governor or one would just be elected in 2026?

I believe one would be elected in the 2026 election, and I think the proposal made it so they are elected on the same ticket and that the Lieutenant Governor is a staff member in the governors office (such as chief of staff).

But unless the ballot measure specifically didn't create the office until after 2026 then it's technically vacant now (well not now but when the next term starts) and would have to be filled as such vacancies are set to (such as if the LG resigns without being promoted to Governor.)

I’m decently sure the office isn’t created until after 2026.

[Utah Neolib]

2026 Hobbs vs Yee. Book it. Yee is an amazing Candidate. Hobbs will have a huge problem.

2026. Hobbs vs Lake. Book it.

[Utah Neolib]

Why are Arizona Republicans the only ones still losing their minds over this? Even Mastriano conceded.

Compare the temperatures of Phoenix today to Philadelphia. Big difference. Heat causes anger and presumably grievance politics.

[Utah Neolib]

Why are Arizona Republicans the only ones still losing their minds over this? Even Mastriano conceded.

Compare the temperatures of Phoenix today to Philadelphia. Big difference. Heat causes anger and presumably grievance politics.

That can't possibly be the explanation.

it’s a joke my guy

[Utah Neolib]

so did she actually announce anything at this rally yesterday lmao

Only further evidence that Comrade Hobbs stole the election with 5 morbillion votes.