Arizona megathread

[wesmoorenerd]

Is it too early to start thinking about 2022 gubernatorial races, seeing as the presidential race hasn't been called yet? Don't be ridiculous, of course it's not!

Doug Ducey is term-limited, although, having completely botched his state's COVID response, he may be more of a liability than an asset this point anyway. The R bench is looking pretty sparse here: the House delegation is full of Freedom Caucus wingnuts with far-right ties and ethics problems, and their most recent statewide primary featured a now two-time loser, a chemtrail conspiracy nut, and Joe Arpaio, whose disgusting barbarism I can't do justice with merely a short description. Fortunately for the Rs, they do have two credible statewide officeholders in AG Mark Brnovich and Treasurer Kimberly Yee, the former of whom is term-limited and likely looking for a promotion.

On the Dem side, there are probably a few more options. Greg Stanton in particular is known to have his eyes on the Governor's Mansion, and SOS Katie Hobbs would be a formidable candidate as well, though she'd likely prefer to hold down her current post.

So, thoughts on these primaries and on the likely outcome of the general election? Alongside MD and GA, this seems like one of the few real offensive targets Dems have in the 2022 gubernatorials.

[Hope For A New Era]

Well, this is two years off, and the direction Arizona is going is not nearly as clear as the direction Georgia is going. I imagine an interesting strategy for a Democrat here might be to mostly ignore the opponent and basically campaign against Ducey and his many failures.

[tosk]

dems should absolutely be targeting this race. Probably favors republicans, but youre right that the bench is weak. I imagine Yee and Brnovich pick between senate and gov so they dont handicap the party.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I’d rate it a tossup with the best democrat being Katie Hobbs

[MargieCat]

As a democrat, I hope McSally runs. But that will never happen.

There are several options for republicans. Like Biggs, Gosar, or Lesko. There is also talk about Kimberly Yee, the state treasurer.

For democrats, I think it will be either Katie Hobbs or Greg Stanton. I also like Ruben Gallego but I have no idea if he is interested in the job.

[Suburbia]

AZ 2022 is Lean D

[Heebie Jeebie]

I think it will be Katie Hobbs vs. Mark Brnovich.

Katie Hobbs will win.

[xavier110]

AZ 2022 is Lean D

Uh. No. Even in 2020, Dems somehow lost every Maricopa County race. Granted, they were all 50/50 or 51/49 races, but this does NOT bode well for 2022. It's Lean R, if anything.

[Figueira]

Hobbs seems like a nice person from watching election coverage.

[SnowLabrador]

Lean R, as is the Senate race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well, this is two years off, and the direction Arizona is going is not nearly as clear as the direction Georgia is going. I imagine an interesting strategy for a Democrat here might be to mostly ignore the opponent and basically campaign against Ducey and his many failures.

GA is still a red state, it's a pink state, and Ossoff may not win, but Warnock has a 2/4 chance and Ossoff he a 1/4.

But D's are favored to win this race since Mark Kelly is on the ballot

[Pollster]

I've heard rumblings that Phoenix mayor Kate Gallego wants to be Governor, though 2022 is a bit early in her term.

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/SebGorka/status/1402456666843451396

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Well that’s… something

[MATTROSE94]

I have Katie Hobbs or Greg Stanton narrowly winning this race.

[MargieCat]

Red Eagle Politics thinks Yee will defeat Hobbs by 6 or 7 points because of Katie Hobbs' "far-left rhetoric." lol.

[CookieDamage]

Brnovich running for Senate.

[MargieCat]

Democrat Adrien Fontes, who just lost reelection as Maricopa County Recorder is running for Secretary of State. Likely against Republican Michelle Ugenti-Rita.

[MargieCat]

It looks highly likely Kari Lake will get the coveted Trump endorsement.

https://twitter.com/RSBNetwork/status/1440760130883051528

[S019]

Trump endorsing Lake would be one of the biggest boosts Democrats could get in this race. Yee is by far the strongest candidate, and her losing the primary makes Democratic chances in this race rise considerably (I'd say Lean R with Yee and Tossup with Lake).

[MargieCat]

Trump endorsing Lake would be one of the biggest boosts Democrats could get in this race. Yee is by far the strongest candidate, and her losing the primary makes Democratic chances in this race rise considerably (I'd say Lean R with Yee and Tossup with Lake).

It seems like Trump is actively trying to sabotage the GOP in the midterms. First Ted Budd and now this. It's also looking like he will torpedo Brnovich.

If he endorses Bolduc before Sununu (or even Scott Brown) announces or declines to run, it will prove my point.

[xavier110]

Trump endorsing Lake would be one of the biggest boosts Democrats could get in this race. Yee is by far the strongest candidate, and her losing the primary makes Democratic chances in this race rise considerably (I'd say Lean R with Yee and Tossup with Lake).

It seems like Trump is actively trying to sabotage the GOP in the midterms. First Ted Budd and now this. It's also looking like he will torpedo Brnovich.

If he endorses Bolduc before Sununu (or even Scott Brown) announces or declines to run, it will prove my point.

He wants complete purists in every office before his next coup attempt. Yee would be another Ducey: smile and nod at him but have no attachment or real desire to please him.

Why the hell is he bringing her to GA, though? Lol

I agree that Lake is an easier challenger for Hobbs to take on. I just don’t have much faith in Hobbs, but maybe she’ll be carried by the suburban college voters in Maricopa.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/bencjacobs/status/1442974011437174787?s=21

[Pink Panther]

https://twitter.com/bencjacobs/status/1442974011437174787?s=21

I wonder how Yee is thinking when she spent a lot of time talking up Trumpist ideals, but still didn't get his endorsement?

[MargieCat]

I'm interested to see which areas go for which candidate in the primary.

I think Yee could win McCain republicans and the more moderate and independents around the Phoenix area.

Salmon will win the Mormon vote for sure.

I think Lake gets the MAGA vote.