Arizona megathread

[2016]

Kari Lake takes down Bret Baier who should be removed from FOX NEWS effective immediatedly

https://twitter.com/ACTBrigitte/status/1541554782682468353

https://rumble.com/v1a7s4c-june-27-2022.html?mref=60qud&mc=17xi1

Time to take down FRAUDS like Bret Baier!

[2016]

Older Republican and Independent Voters disapprove of Bidens Student Loan Forgiveness Package new AZ Poll shows
https://twitter.com/OHPredictive/status/1571990263614128133

[2016]

I mean, it's still a net positive in that poll overall, at 50/46, and Independents are even higher, 52/42. Even gets 24% of Republicans.

You're likely to find 55+ everywhere probably disapproving, because most of them either don't understand or don't agree because they don't understand.

Nice spin try but according to Exit Polls in AZ 2018 (The Last Midterm) 66 % of the Electorate was 45+,
and 29 % were 65+
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/arizona/senate
You will have an "Alamo" with Hobbs come November. Lake has now more than an even chance to win this after being left for dead after the Primary. Hobbs refusing to debate Lake won't help her.

[2016]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, and it seems like she doesn't want to share the stage with her. Lake obviously sought to press the issue, but failed. This also explains why Hobbs didn't show up to the Prensa Arizona townhall that was discussed earlier in this thread.

I think Lake has a good chance of winning.

[2016]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, and it seems like she doesn't want to share the stage with her. Lake obviously sought to press the issue, but failed. This also explains why Hobbs didn't show up to the Prensa Arizona townhall that was discussed earlier in this thread.

I think Lake has a good chance of winning.

She does, as does Hobbs. I've gone as far to say AZ-GOV is Lean R, but it's more appropriate to adjudge it as a Tossup. Win or lose, Lake will run ahead of Masters by a decent margin. A split outcome between her and Kelly is very likely at this point.

Yeah that is the mostly likely outcome: a Lake - Kelly split. However Kelly really botched up the Debate against Masters and he underperformed his Polling in 2020 against washed-up McSally. Republicans are back in the Game in the Senate Race I think.

[2016]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, and it seems like she doesn't want to share the stage with her. Lake obviously sought to press the issue, but failed. This also explains why Hobbs didn't show up to the Prensa Arizona townhall that was discussed earlier in this thread.

I think Lake has a good chance of winning.

She does, as does Hobbs. I've gone as far to say AZ-GOV is Lean R, but it's more appropriate to adjudge it as a Tossup. Win or lose, Lake will run ahead of Masters by a decent margin. A split outcome between her and Kelly is very likely at this point.

Yeah that is the mostly likely outcome: a Lake - Kelly split. However Kelly really botched up the Debate against Masters and he underperformed his Polling in 2020 against washed-up McSally. Republicans are back in the Game in the Senate Race I think.

I still give the advantage to Kelly, but a Masters victory wouldn't surprise me.

The Border and Crime Issue will drag down Kelly I think. Same will happen with CCM in Nevada. O'Rourke will lose I think because of it. Yvette Herrell will stun Democrats and get reelected in NM and the Grisham - Rochetti Race will be tighter as well because of the Border Crisis.

[2016]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, and it seems like she doesn't want to share the stage with her. Lake obviously sought to press the issue, but failed. This also explains why Hobbs didn't show up to the Prensa Arizona townhall that was discussed earlier in this thread.

I think Lake has a good chance of winning.

She does, as does Hobbs. I've gone as far to say AZ-GOV is Lean R, but it's more appropriate to adjudge it as a Tossup. Win or lose, Lake will run ahead of Masters by a decent margin. A split outcome between her and Kelly is very likely at this point.

Yeah that is the mostly likely outcome: a Lake - Kelly split. However Kelly really botched up the Debate against Masters and he underperformed his Polling in 2020 against washed-up McSally. Republicans are back in the Game in the Senate Race I think.

I still give the advantage to Kelly, but a Masters victory wouldn't surprise me.

The Border and Crime Issue will drag down Kelly I think. Same will happen with CCM in Nevada. O'Rourke will lose I think because of it. Yvette Herrell will stun Democrats and get reelected in NM and the Grisham - Rochetti Race will be tighter as well because of the Border Crisis.

I sure hope Ronchetti wins, because Grisham is terrible. She was a hypocrite with regards to the pandemic and overreached in her response to that, and she's had sexual assault allegations (which she settled monetarily). O'Rourke was going to lose regardless, but as I've said, I think he'll lose by more than he did in 2018 and do worse in the Rio Grande Valley. And I do think Laxalt is going to win in Nevada at this point, although it will be close.

The best way to do checks on this Administration if you don't control Congress as an opposing party is to elected Republican Governors. As you mentioned COVID we saw how crucial that was. Thank God AZ had Doug Ducey as Governor. The Biden Administration really overreached with all their Mask & Vaccine Mandates and still do. I was glad the SCOTUS struck down the OSHA Vaccine Mandate. That was the right Decision.

[2016]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, and it seems like she doesn't want to share the stage with her. Lake obviously sought to press the issue, but failed. This also explains why Hobbs didn't show up to the Prensa Arizona townhall that was discussed earlier in this thread.

I think Lake has a good chance of winning.

She does, as does Hobbs. I've gone as far to say AZ-GOV is Lean R, but it's more appropriate to adjudge it as a Tossup. Win or lose, Lake will run ahead of Masters by a decent margin. A split outcome between her and Kelly is very likely at this point.

Yeah that is the mostly likely outcome: a Lake - Kelly split. However Kelly really botched up the Debate against Masters and he underperformed his Polling in 2020 against washed-up McSally. Republicans are back in the Game in the Senate Race I think.

I still give the advantage to Kelly, but a Masters victory wouldn't surprise me.

Oh? Kelly is widely considered to be a great candidate, and Masters... not so much.

Doesn't matter if Kelly is a great Candidate. He too will be dragged down by Biden. The CNN/SSRS Poll had Biden at 41 % JA in the State and that Pollster is telling the Public Kelly will overperform Biden by 10 Points? Nope. Not gonna happen folks.

Democrats have a Problem with Biden.

[2016]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, and it seems like she doesn't want to share the stage with her. Lake obviously sought to press the issue, but failed. This also explains why Hobbs didn't show up to the Prensa Arizona townhall that was discussed earlier in this thread.

I think Lake has a good chance of winning.

She does, as does Hobbs. I've gone as far to say AZ-GOV is Lean R, but it's more appropriate to adjudge it as a Tossup. Win or lose, Lake will run ahead of Masters by a decent margin. A split outcome between her and Kelly is very likely at this point.

Yeah that is the mostly likely outcome: a Lake - Kelly split. However Kelly really botched up the Debate against Masters and he underperformed his Polling in 2020 against washed-up McSally. Republicans are back in the Game in the Senate Race I think.

  Kelly would really have to screw up to lose this race.

Don't pay much attention to 2016 and others who are deluded enough to think the debate changed anything.

If you think Kelly will overperform Bidens Job Number by 10 Points you are living in Fantasyland. Kelly won by less than 100K Votes in 2020 against washed-up Martha McSally. If Kelly wins it will be 51-49, 50-48 or something like that.

I would put McSally in the same Position Charlie Crist is in FL this year.

[2016]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, and it seems like she doesn't want to share the stage with her. Lake obviously sought to press the issue, but failed. This also explains why Hobbs didn't show up to the Prensa Arizona townhall that was discussed earlier in this thread.

I think Lake has a good chance of winning.

She does, as does Hobbs. I've gone as far to say AZ-GOV is Lean R, but it's more appropriate to adjudge it as a Tossup. Win or lose, Lake will run ahead of Masters by a decent margin. A split outcome between her and Kelly is very likely at this point.

Yeah that is the mostly likely outcome: a Lake - Kelly split. However Kelly really botched up the Debate against Masters and he underperformed his Polling in 2020 against washed-up McSally. Republicans are back in the Game in the Senate Race I think.

I still give the advantage to Kelly, but a Masters victory wouldn't surprise me.

Oh? Kelly is widely considered to be a great candidate, and Masters... not so much.

Doesn't matter if Kelly is a great Candidate. He too will be dragged down by Biden. The CNN/SSRS Poll had Biden at 41 % JA in the State and that Pollster is telling the Public Kelly will overperform Biden by 10 Points? Nope. Not gonna happen folks.

Democrats have a Problem with Biden.

Candidate quality matters, which is why Kelly is very likely to win. Biden's approval rating doesn't mean anything. If it did, then the GOP is going to have a clean sweep and win some surprise races. Yeah, not happening.

Bidens Approval will matter as we get closer to E-Day. 1st Term Midterm Elections are always and have been for the last 3 Decades a Referendum on the Incumbent President and 2022 ain't going to change that.

[2016]

Maybe we should ask MSNBC to hire wbrocks as Political Analyst? Seriously ya'll need to stop feeding him. He is a little bit of an attention seeker.

[2016]

Lake is now.. begging Hobbs to debate her on The View.

I can't take this campaign seriously.

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1581508375069663234?t=adkMmXPnqdkT0PQV05wKXw...

Dude how does this reflect poorly on Lake? She's clearly making a joke, so of course you can't take it seriously. Sometimes I don't get you wbrocks.

Lake hasn't been "begging" for a debate. She's been using Hobbs' refusal to debate as an attack against her, and if the polls are any indication, it has been an effective one.

This is spot on!

[2016]

Just recieved my mail-in ballot, I plan on voting straight ticket R obviously. If you are voting by mail make sure you mail it back by the weekend before election day. If you drop it off it will still be counted but a few days after the election (when the races are probably already called). There isn't much fun in that.

Speak to your friends too. We need AZ Good Luck!

[2016]

According to Chuck Todd of NBC NEWS an AZ Operative told him the Overall Electorate in AZ will be R+4.

If that's right I just don't see Kari Lake losing this.

And if I am honest: Kari Lake would be a fantastic Governor. She comes over as very likeable, very down to earth person.

[2016]

According to Chuck Todd of NBC NEWS an AZ Operative told him the Overall Electorate in AZ will be R+4.

If that's right I just don't see Kari Lake losing this.

And if I am honest: Kari Lake would be a fantastic Governor. She comes over as very likeable, very down to earth person.

IIRC, R+4 electorate is worse than 2018/2020 for the GOP. Lol. In that model, the Ds sweep most races, hold AZ-06, maybe Schweikert falls…

It will be higher than that.

You are probably right. 2018 & 2020 were sort of Democratic Years so yeah AZ Electorate could look more like 2014.

[2016]

Katie Hobbs is DONE FOR if you believe Data Orbital
https://twitter.com/Data_Orbital/status/1590401917372764160

[2016]

Tom Horne pulled ahead in Superintendent Race against Kathy Hoffmann

While Lake is likely on track to lose it is pivotal, vitally important that Hamadeh wins in the Attorney Generals Race bcuz if we win that Race we then can put a check on Hobbs.

[2016]

Abe Hamadeh is only down by less than 3,000 Votes now to Kris Mayes.

[2016]

AZ Attorney Generals Race

Kris Mayes (D) 1,236,908
Abraham Hamadeh (R) 1,235,395

Difference: 1,513

Mayes better hope he has a good "Curing" Team otherwise Hamadeh might win this.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1592643726538870785

Garrett goes on to say that there are about 6K votes left in Apache County, which are expected to be mostly tribal votes (heavily D).  If this is the case, he estimates Hamadeh needs about 60% of the remaining Maricopa votes to feel comfortable.

Cochise County dropped the rest of it's Ballots trimming Mayes' lead to 1,114 Votes.

[2016]

2026 Hobbs vs Yee. Book it. Yee is an amazing Candidate. Hobbs will have a huge problem.

[2016]

The Discrepancy is from PINAL COUNTY!