Arizona megathread

[xavier110]

AZ 2022 is Lean D

Uh. No. Even in 2020, Dems somehow lost every Maricopa County race. Granted, they were all 50/50 or 51/49 races, but this does NOT bode well for 2022. It's Lean R, if anything.

[xavier110]

Trump endorsing Lake would be one of the biggest boosts Democrats could get in this race. Yee is by far the strongest candidate, and her losing the primary makes Democratic chances in this race rise considerably (I'd say Lean R with Yee and Tossup with Lake).

It seems like Trump is actively trying to sabotage the GOP in the midterms. First Ted Budd and now this. It's also looking like he will torpedo Brnovich.

If he endorses Bolduc before Sununu (or even Scott Brown) announces or declines to run, it will prove my point.

He wants complete purists in every office before his next coup attempt. Yee would be another Ducey: smile and nod at him but have no attachment or real desire to please him.

Why the hell is he bringing her to GA, though? Lol

I agree that Lake is an easier challenger for Hobbs to take on. I just don’t have much faith in Hobbs, but maybe she’ll be carried by the suburban college voters in Maricopa.

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1541875784628850688

It's too late for his name to be removed from the ballot.

Yas queen! We are one step closer to my dream of Gold Digger Gov. Karrin Taylor Robson being realized.

[xavier110]

Salmon insta-endorsed Robson today.

KTR FTW!

[xavier110]

Hobbs declined to participate in the Dem debate, which I somewhat understand, since she will easily win the primary against Lopez.

HOWEVER, she is a terrible speaker and debater and needs as much practice as possible to fend off Lake or Robson. Both will likely walk all over her in a general.

She’s been running a lackadaisical campaign. Her unwillingness to be tested is going to lead to her downfall — and perhaps an even more embarrassing performance at the polls against a GOP nominee who will have flaws to exploit.

[xavier110]

Hobbs declined to participate in the Dem debate, which I somewhat understand, since she will easily win the primary against Lopez.

HOWEVER, she is a terrible speaker and debater and needs as much practice as possible to fend off Lake or Robson. Both will likely walk all over her in a general.

She’s been running a lackadaisical campaign. Her unwillingness to be tested is going to lead to her downfall — and perhaps an even more embarrassing performance at the polls against a GOP nominee who will have flaws to exploit.

you saying you think she will lose the general?

Very likely, regardless of GOP nominee. Which is why defeating Kari in the primary should be goal no. 1 for any rational person in the state of Arizona. Salmon dropping out leaves Robson a real opening.

(For the Arizonans - It takes two seconds to update your registration to be able to vote against her if you’re not already an I or R.)

[xavier110]

Is anyone covering Hobbs? I know her primary is much more secure but I feel like no one posts about anything she's doing.

She’s not been doing much.

[xavier110]

Given that AZ's situation is similar to PA's, in that the GOP primaries on both sides are contentious and the Dem only has 1 real race, and even that one is pretty much locked up, I'm surprised to see Dem turnout so high, and beating GOP's in turnout % and raw #s.

Isn't AZ usually largely mail-in/early vote state vs. election day?

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1550949395855683584

It is a little odd.

However, there is more than one contest on the D side.

 The sec of state race is contentious between Bolding and Fontes — there are SJW types coming to the aid of Bolding — though Fontes should ultimately demolish him.

There are also some competitive state legislative primaries in heavy D districts where winning here is effectively winning the general.

So Ds can make quick work of their ballot and turn it in: gov, sec of state, leg or congressional races.

Two factors could be driving the GOP turnout situation:

1) GOP base voters are now primed to only vote in person on Election Day. It’s a weird development since they had been steadfast mail voters for two decades and the R legislature made vote by mail to cater to their conservative geriatric base…

2) The GOP ballot is complex with a lot of competitive races, and voters are waiting a while to decide some choices.

It’s probably a mixture of those two reasons. I don’t know how someone could be undecided on Lake vs. Robson, but all polls have shown that voters know nothing about sec of state, attorney general, school superintendent, treasurer, and all the other downballot races.

Regardless, I sent my R ballot in for Robson, Brno (I probably should have gone McGuire at this point), Norton against Schweikert, and whoever else I thought was moderate or could beat the Trump-endorsed candidate.

[xavier110]

For all the talk of Robson being the more 'moderate' candidate, should be noted that she's essentially a 2020 election denier too

https://twitter.com/speechboy71/status/1551552202237530112

I have confidence that she would certify a D 24 win and basically be Ducey 3.0. But she’s tried to have it every which way. At the debate she was the only one not to raise their hand about the election being rigged. Her craven triangulating hurts as much as it helps her though so I don’t get it.

[xavier110]

Not sure where the proof is RE: "Dems floundering in AZGOV". Hobbs is rightfully letting the GOP primary take up all the news cycles.

That’s a generous interpretation of what’s going on. Hobbs sucks. The more Ds can wrap their brains around that fact, the easier Nov will be. I did my part by voting Robson, but it looks like we are on track for a solid Lake win and then her coasting to the governorship alongside Finchem and Hamadeh, lmao.

I may seriously leave this state. 2024 is going to be absolute chaos, and we may have state officials encouraging political violence.

The Ds who will perform the best are the incumbents - Kelly for Sen and Hoffman for superintendent of public instruction. They’re probably the only statewide races Ds will have a chance to win.

[xavier110]

Not sure where the proof is RE: "Dems floundering in AZGOV". Hobbs is rightfully letting the GOP primary take up all the news cycles.

That’s a generous interpretation of what’s going on. Hobbs sucks. The more Ds can wrap their brains around that fact, the easier Nov will be. I did my part by voting Robson, but it looks like we are on track for a solid Lake win and then her coasting to the governorship alongside Finchem and Hamadeh, lmao.

I may seriously leave this state. 2024 is going to be absolute chaos, and we may have state officials encouraging political violence.

The Ds who will perform the best are the incumbents - Kelly for Sen and Hoffman for superintendent of public instruction. They’re probably the only statewide races Ds will have a chance to win.

Even if Hobbs ends up being a generic/sub-par candidate, how is Lake cruising in a state that is vehemently opposite of all of her nonsense?

There doesn't seem to be a rational here for a Lake win. Meanwhile, I don't see really anything but neutralness from Hobbs at this point, where other then not debating her primary opponent (which happens all the time), there really hasn't been much to either approve or disapprove of her campaign so far?

Those telling you Lake is some terrible candidate are wrong. That’s the issue.

She’s actually very astute, very conniving, and very charismatic. She is a loon and will say some nuts things, but she’s in no means a “bad” candidate.

Hobbs has sooo much baggage. She’s had no answer to the Adams scandal, has flip flopped on almost every issue, and has the personality of a wet paper bag.

I don’t see any way she litigates a case against Lake, who will slither around any critique.

Will this be a landslide? No. But Lake will probably coast along to a comfortable 4-6 point win is my guess.

The primary results on Tuesday will be fairly telling. If Lake does well in Maricopa beware.

[xavier110]

She’s actually very astute, very conniving, and very charismatic. She is a loon and will say some nuts things, but she’s in no means a “bad” candidate.

I think you are too deferential to Lake here. She has the capacity to be astute, charismatic, and so on, but she also has baggage of her own and her past smacks of opportunism, too. I worry that Hobbs isn’t the best person to exploit these attacks, but there’s certainly no shortage of material for her to choose from.

That’s fair. I think I’m over correcting since I deal with a lot of Ds here (and by here I mean IRL, in AZ) who are casual political observers and act as if Lake is a sure fire loser.

[xavier110]

Assuming Kari Lake is the nominee, which seems like a pretty safe assumption now, this is going to be an interesting campaign.

As an Arizonan, I may sound like a broken record on this, but we've seen Kari Lake for 20 years or so every night on the news.  She is, or at least was, one of the most well-known and trusted media personalities around.  The rest of the country may have only seen the recent lunatic persona, but that's not what a lot of people around here think.

Until maybe 2018 or so, she seemed to be fairly liberal in her social media, etc.  She praised Obama and attacked Trump.  And then, for some reason, she lurched to the right.  Did Trump and/or the pandemic drive her nuts?  Did she suddenly decide she really wanted to be governor and that this was the best path there?  Who knows.

And so that leaves me wondering, what kind of campaign is she going to run from here on?  Unlike a lot of people (Masters, etc), she could credibly moderate if she wanted to.  Even Robson kept attacking her as a "closet liberal."  The recent drag queen kerfluffle, where she attacked Drag Queen Story Hours and then was "outed" as having been close friends with a drag queen a few years ago, just goes to show how different she was not too long ago.

But does she even WANT to moderate herself?  Maybe she is genuinely nuts and not just spewing what she thinks the Trumpanzees want to hear.  I guess we'll find out soon enough.

My hunch: She will not run away from any crazy position she’s already taken.

However, she will pivot and couch things with transitions like, “Stop asking me about such a controversial and personal issue like abortion and instead focus on the failings of the Biden administration at the border and at your pocketbook” yadda yadda yadda. She will also try to relate to independents and say she’s undergone a political evolution throughout her life and maybe even own the Obama vote, lol.

When asked she will still say 2020 was illegitimate and there was fraud and that reporters are the enemy and so on

[xavier110]

Hobbs is still kicking and screaming about the debate with Lake. Why is this campaign run by idiots? They should literally be like, “We are so ready to debate the fraud Kari Lake, who has lied for two years, spread mistruths about 2020, and lives in a world where Donald Trump is still president.”

Instead, they look pathetic. Sigh. If she loses, it’s on her, full stop. Grow a freaking backbone. I’m sick of these loser freaks running the Democratic Party.

[xavier110]

Not really a good look for Hobbs, I'm not sure why she's doing this.

I honestly cannot tell if this is driven more by her or her people advising and attempting to protect her.

Either way, they’re all morons. When she loses, it’s on her and her team. It’ll be extra embarrassing if Kelly wins and Ds still win a couple other statewide races.

Fontes (SOS), Mayes (AG), and Hoffman (School Superintendent) are all EAGER to destroy their whack job opponent… Hobbs… MIA, cowering…

[xavier110]

What is Hobbs playing at? She's an idiot, and she's going to cost us the 2024 election.

I mean, unless there is still going to be an event where Lake stands next to an empty podium, this is not going to matter. Voters don't really seem to care that much about debates like this.

Hobbs is a bad candidate, she should just debate and debunk Lake and her lies. If anything Lake will look ridiculous. That said, with even GOP leaning polls having it as a tie, Hobbs might be up 2-3 at the moment.

Dems need an all out ad blitz against Lake on her abortion ban along with overturning the election. This should be a national priority.

Would love to see an ad blitz that can take down Lake. At this rate she’s gonna coast on low info goodwill for being on TV for years.

All I see are Mark Kelly ads lol.

What is the rationale for Hobbs not debating? If you really believe your opponent is incompetent or extreme, a debate is a great way to show that

Yes but that is also the reason why Hobbs says she refuses to debate her, so make sense of that one for me…

[xavier110]

What is Hobbs playing at? She's an idiot, and she's going to cost us the 2024 election.

I mean, unless there is still going to be an event where Lake stands next to an empty podium, this is not going to matter. Voters don't really seem to care that much about debates like this.

Hobbs is a bad candidate, she should just debate and debunk Lake and her lies. If anything Lake will look ridiculous. That said, with even GOP leaning polls having it as a tie, Hobbs might be up 2-3 at the moment.

Dems need an all out ad blitz against Lake on her abortion ban along with overturning the election. This should be a national priority.

Would love to see an ad blitz that can take down Lake. At this rate she’s gonna coast on low info goodwill for being on TV for years.

All I see are Mark Kelly ads lol.

The total abortion ban is still a very good ace in the hole for AZ Dems...don't kid yourself. It's very salient with a GOP legislature.

Im agreeing with you. I just haven’t seen anything really from Lake or Hobbs re: ads. It’s the Mark Kelly show. Would love Hobbs abortion themed ads.

[xavier110]

As Centrist and Xavier have noted, Hobbs has virtually zero TV presence currently.  (Lake doesn't either, but as I've said she doesn't really need it due to her name recognition.)

Tying into what I said earlier and about what was asked about Kelly-Lake voters?  My parents, for two.  They're just in love with her.  I managed to cajole them into voting for Biden, and they really like Mark Kelly, but I can't currently dissuade them from voting for "Kari."

The abortion angle?  Doesn't move them at all.  The nutcase election rhetoric?  According to them, she doesn't really believe it, so it's okay.

At this point I wonder if I'm going to have to sneak over there and steal their ballots or I don't know, threaten to not be their son anymore if they vote for Lake.  Ugh.  I was really hoping Hobbs would "man up" and debate in order to show Lake's stupidity off.  Really, really stupid move on her part to chicken out like that.

Similar situation with my Robson voting 70 year old father, though he sounds more partisan than your parents. Everything I hear and see tells me Lake is going to win, which makes me nervous about Finchem, Hamadeh, etc.

Honestly may consider moving next year.

[xavier110]

Lake seems to have qualms about attaching herself to Finchem, possibly the most fringe candidate in the entire country, and Hobbs needs to capitalize on that. If Arizonans don't find Lake extreme on her own, surely associating so closely with an Oath Keeper should send that message, right?

The average voter has no idea who Finchem is

[xavier110]

Well Hobbs is finally on the air, so that's a good thing.  Both she and Kelly are pushing border security - I don't know if that's the best place to fight this battle on.  I've said even before 2018/20 that AZ is actually a sort of purplish, live-and-let-live state (1st in the country to beat a gay marriage ban!) until you start in on immigration, and then a significant portion of the state simply goes insane.

I thought it was strange albeit understandable due to name rec that Lake is not on the air, now I think it's deliberate.  It looks like she's running a two-pronged strategy - 1, work the base heavily with rallies and insane rhetoric on right-wing social media, 2, stay quiet on a statewide level and bank on "low-info" voters filling in the oval for Fox 10 Sweetheart Kari Lake.

I guess it's to her credit(?) that she's not "moderating" like Masters and putting up tons of TV ads showing what a normal person she is.  But it's why so many people in AZ are concerned about the Hobbs campaign - she HAS to expose Lake as nuts to win.  I thought a debate would have been a great chance to do that.  Sinema vs McSally was certainly talked about quite a bit afterwards.

This analysis is dead on. Everything you mention is correct. Esp the point about crucifying Lake as bonkers. If I were running Hobbs’s campaign, this would be a scorched earth, relentless effort. At this point, literally anything suggesting sharper elbows from Hobbs would inspire confidence. That FBI phone tweet was my first indication of a pulse or a staffer having a working brain.

That Lake has barely touched the racial discrimination stuff suggests to me that they think they will coast along to a win.

It is mind boggling to me that Lake is deploying a better GE strategy than Thiel strategist Masters, but it is what it is.

[xavier110]

Also, I think her name ID seems a bit overrated - she was only an anchor in one of the media markets.

That's like saying that all of Pennsylvania knows Jim Gardner just because he's a legend in the *Philly area*

You realize that Maricopa County is home to over 60% of the state's population...

I think Lake is insane and I don't want her to be the governor, but Hobbs really needs to get her s**t together.

Guess what? Democrats can and do run bad campaigns.

My point is that a lot of the conjecture around Hobbs running such a bad campaign isn't really backed up by a lot of evidence. Meanwhile, Lake is not even running ads on TV and yet she's supposedly running a better campaign for... reasons? Come on.

Stop… you say this every post. There IS evidence.

1) She’s typically under-running Kelly by 4-5 points.

2) If Kari is so weak and Hobbs is running a good/ not bad campaign, Lake should be posting Christine O’Donnell/Todd Akin numbers and Hobbs should be starting to pull away with this. She’s not. If Hobbs were running a decent campaign, Lake should be considered toxic/radioactive by now to the Sinema/Biden/Kelly voters of recent years… she’s not.

3) Almost every Arizonan here keeps saying Hobbs is a mediocre candidate and campaigner.

I say this and WANT her to win. I voted Robson in the primary since I knew this was not going to be a fun GE.

[xavier110]

Not sure how seriously to take this yet, but I'm starting to develop a theory that Lake may turn out to have an advantage relative to other Rs just because, as Trump or Mark Ronchetti have shown recently, being portrayed as an authoritative figure on television for years and years before entering politics can in fact be a boon to your credibility as a candidate. (and, by extension, that the narrative is more negative about Hobbs as a candidate than it necessarily should be)

Yes. It’s a bit of both. The contrast makes Hobbs look like a void of charisma, which wouldn’t really be the case if she were facing Robson, for example.

[xavier110]

If the D ticket does well and Hobbs pulls it off, the AZ Dems can point back to this abortion ruling as an inflection point. Really changed the tenor of the campaign with just like two weeks until voting begins here.

[xavier110]

We have our first Lake ad:

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1574810453762404355?s=20

The goal of this ad is to just paint her as a nice person. It doesn't explain any of her policy nor combat any sort of fringe positions she has been accused of holding.

Well, yeah, people vote on feelings. It’s a pretty good ad.

So Lake is apparently putting $7.5M behind that ad, with help from Yuma County GOP. They must be fronting a lot of the bill, because last I saw, Lake had only raised a few million herself.

Also interesting, RGA has spent $4M hitting Hobbs with negative ads according to the NBC article on that ad, and yet Hobbs' favorables still seem in tact.

Yeah, I haven’t seen any anti Hobbs stuff.

[xavier110]

One of the stranger attacks on Hobbs recently has been a story about her not reporting income from her Uber side gig in 2016.

I don’t know why Hobbs isn’t running with the story. It really humanizes her. Kinda blows my mind that our Secretary of State was chaffeuring people around Phoenix five years ago to support her family. I would like to see more of that side of Katie—I think it would endear people to her.