Arizona megathread

[wbrocks67]

I was told Kari Lake wasn't an insane extremist though?

[wbrocks67]

"I will pursue legal action against this drag queen."

I mean these lines just write themselves.

also WTF is that lighting/filter she's using? lmao

[wbrocks67]

The GOV race is a clown car at this point

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1542302130685575168

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1542309453181161473

[wbrocks67]

This is going viral for all the wrong reasons. Hobbs is smart to keep a low profile for now while these whackos battle it out.

At least Hobbs comes off as reasonable and sane compared to this.

https://twitter.com/endajodowd/status/1542915789845561346

[wbrocks67]

Is anyone covering Hobbs? I know her primary is much more secure but I feel like no one posts about anything she's doing.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, this is bordering on Tilt D if Lake wins the primary.

You cannot go into an election in a purple state, even this year, with the endorsement of people like MTG (and actively talking about liking that endorsement)

[wbrocks67]

Given that AZ's situation is similar to PA's, in that the GOP primaries on both sides are contentious and the Dem only has 1 real race, and even that one is pretty much locked up, I'm surprised to see Dem turnout so high, and beating GOP's in turnout % and raw #s.

Isn't AZ usually largely mail-in/early vote state vs. election day?

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1550949395855683584

[wbrocks67]

For all the talk of Robson being the more 'moderate' candidate, should be noted that she's essentially a 2020 election denier too

https://twitter.com/speechboy71/status/1551552202237530112

[wbrocks67]

GOP gained, but Dems still have turnout advantage - 22% vs 18%. I'm shocked Dems still have raw vote lead as well.

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1551998747713761280

[wbrocks67]

Not sure where the proof is RE: "Dems floundering in AZGOV". Hobbs is rightfully letting the GOP primary take up all the news cycles.

[wbrocks67]

Not sure where the proof is RE: "Dems floundering in AZGOV". Hobbs is rightfully letting the GOP primary take up all the news cycles.

That’s a generous interpretation of what’s going on. Hobbs sucks. The more Ds can wrap their brains around that fact, the easier Nov will be. I did my part by voting Robson, but it looks like we are on track for a solid Lake win and then her coasting to the governorship alongside Finchem and Hamadeh, lmao.

I may seriously leave this state. 2024 is going to be absolute chaos, and we may have state officials encouraging political violence.

The Ds who will perform the best are the incumbents - Kelly for Sen and Hoffman for superintendent of public instruction. They’re probably the only statewide races Ds will have a chance to win.

Even if Hobbs ends up being a generic/sub-par candidate, how is Lake cruising in a state that is vehemently opposite of all of her nonsense?

There doesn't seem to be a rational here for a Lake win. Meanwhile, I don't see really anything but neutralness from Hobbs at this point, where other then not debating her primary opponent (which happens all the time), there really hasn't been much to either approve or disapprove of her campaign so far?

[wbrocks67]

I'd say Hobbs is a mediocre candidate - better than Garcia, but she also comes with her own baggage. Her response to the Talonya Adams scandal was inelegant and it may foreshadow trouble dealing with negative press on the campaign trail. That being said, few people expected her to win back in 2018. If she can make this campaign about abortion + Lake's excesses and tie herself to someone like Mark Kelly, she has a decent shot of winning.

I'm still confused as to how this is the thinking though? Lake is an extremist while Hobbs is a moderate Democrat incumbent in a purple state that is trending blue.

[wbrocks67]

Kari Lake should ask Trump how it worked out for him when he bad-mouthed the McCains all over Arizona.

Also, can she stop with the weird glamour TV hits? It's almost comical whatever filter she continues using.

[wbrocks67]

A mess

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1554486148243677184

[wbrocks67]

Looks like the rest of the ballots will likely help Lake

https://twitter.com/jboehm_NEWS/status/1554819414083584001

[wbrocks67]

??

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1554944582500114432

[wbrocks67]

Hobbs was also seriously underestimated in 2018, as well. No one expected her to come from left field and win.

Meanwhile, Lake out here saying that Hobbs should be in jail.

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1554979989283409920

[wbrocks67]

When is the GOP primary expected to be called?

Seems very likely Lake got this. High risk-high reward race for Dems now. Ugh.

Looks like Maricopa is expected to dump a ton of votes tonight, so I'd guess tonight after that it should be called

[wbrocks67]

There will not be a pivot, and it's very curious to me how Lake thinks this is a winning message for a state that rejected Trumpism in 2020.

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1555225941982359553

[wbrocks67]

If Ds are having a good night, I imagine Yee may be the sole crossover vote here that may be possible. I feel like Lake and Finchem, and to a bit of a lesser extent Masters, are all going to tie themselves together in the extreme wing, so it's gonna be hard to see a ton of crossover in those IMO.

[wbrocks67]

LMAO, if only there was as much outrage over Republicans/RGA supporting election deniers as there was Democrats throwing a few dollars at an ad touting how crazy they are.

Ducey is just as craven, if not more so.

[wbrocks67]

One underrated discussion is despite Lake only narrowly beating Robson, she won every County and did about the same everywhere in the state. To be fair Robson won the new AZ-01 but only very narrowly, and stereotypically, that's the district that most embodies establishment/"moderate" Republicans.

Yet Hobbs despite winning in a 50+ point landslide lost heavily Hispanic Santa Cruz County to her Hispanic Challenger Marco Lopez. She also came close to losing Yuma, another heavily Hispanic border County.

I feel like this is somewhat telling. Even though it seems like the GOP base in many ways is more divided due to the primary being much more contested, Dem support tends to be much more regionally and racially polarized.

It also brings up the question will Hobbs suffer with Hispanics or did Hispanics vote this way purely cause of the Lopez's Hispanic name?

I'd be very curious come November who wins the new AZ-01 and AZ-06 for Governor, especially since most have these as pretty solid Republican victories on the Congressional level. Hobbs probably needs to run up the margins in the Pheonix suburbs, especially since I think it'll be hard for her (or frankly anyone) to sustain the Hispanic turnout needed to win on 2020 margins. It's simillar to how Sinema and Kelly both won their Senate races by virtually identical margins yet Sinema did better than Kelly margin wise basically everywhere except the area of the old AZ-02 which McSally represented. 2018 turnout in the Hispanic parts of the state were just low.

Santa Cruz was Lopez's home county, so pretty sure that's why she lost that one.

[wbrocks67]

That statement from Lake is absolutely batsh*t insane.

[wbrocks67]

oh my god i cannot take her seriously with these filtered videos lmao

[wbrocks67]

Basically running a Mastriano-style campaign at this point. Just going all in on the base without even trying to appeal to the middle

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1559131858302111744

https://twitter.com/brikeilarcnn/status/1559146877379026945