Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3150 on: March 03, 2024, 11:58:55 AM »
« edited: March 14, 2024, 08:40:21 PM by Gass3268 »



Senate District 03
Counties: Milwaukee
Largest Municipality: City of Milwaukee (South)
Demographics: 33.1% White (-9.5%) 50.6% Hispanic (4.7%) 10.5% Black (2.0%) 6.0% AAPI (2.6%) 4.0% Natvie (1.5%)
Population Growth: -1.02%
PVI: D+16 (R+1)
2020 Turnout: 57.8%
2020 Pres: Biden 66.0% - Trump 32.3% (Trump +1.8%)
Pres Swing: Trump +0.2%
2022 Avg: 66.6% Democrats - 33.7% Republicans
Incumbent Party: Democrat
Incumbent Senator: Tim Carpenter (Milwaukee - 03)
Next Election: 2026
Description: This district did not change all that much between the two maps. It is still the most Hispanic Senate district in the state. The only change between this map and the 2022 one being that the most western part of this Senate seat shifted towards the southeast, going more so into the City of Greenfield and out of far western Milwaukee. This change does not change the demographics of this district, which as of 2020 now has a voting age population Hispanic plurality. Whenever Senator Carpenter chooses to retire, he will in all likelihood be replaced by a Hispanic Democrat. Also, I should note that this is the Senate district with the lowest voter turnout, but that won’t be an issue for Democrats in this Solid Democratic seat.

Assembly District 07
Counties: Milwaukee
Largest Municipality: City of Milwaukee (Southwest)
Demographics: 59.3% White (-16.6%) 24.3% Hispanic (9.7%) 8.7% Black (3.7%) 6.6% AAPI (2.8%) 3.2% Native (1.2%)
Population Growth: 2.2%
PVI: D+6 (R+1)
2020 Turnout: 65.1%
2020 Pres: Biden 57.7% - Trump 40.6% (Trump +3.7%)
Pres Swing: 5.4% Biden
2022 Avg: 58.9% Democrats - 39.5% Republicans
Incumbent Party: Democrat
Incumbent Representatives: Daniel Riemer (Milwaukee - 07) & Bob Donovan (Greenfield - 84)
Description: All of the above described changes to the Senate district (less in western Milwaukee for more of Greenfield) also took place in this Assembly district. This has resulted in this district double bunking two representatives, including the former conservative mayoral candidate for the City of Milwaukee. He “moved” to Greenfield after he lost to run for the Assembly. Looks like he will have to move again if he wants a fighting chance of staying in the Assembly as this is a Very Likely Democratic seat. This seat also saw the biggest decrease in its white population and had the highest increase in Hispanic population compared to 2010.

Assembly District 08
Counties: Milwaukee
Largest Municipality: City of Milwaukee (Near Southeast)
Demographics: 15.3% White (-1.9%) 69.4% Hispanic (-.5%) 12.3% Black (.2%) 4.4% AAPI (2.0%) 4.4% Native (1.7%)
Population Growth: -5.8%
PVI: D+30 (D/R+0)
2020 Turnout: 49.1%
2020 Pres: Biden 77.7% - Trump 20.5% (Biden/Trump +0.0)
Pres Swing: 8.0% Trump
2022 Avg: 79.4% Democrats - 18.9% Republicans
Incumbent Party: Democrat
Incumbent Representative: Sylvia Ortiz-Velez (Milwaukee - 08)
Description: This seat is one of nine Assembly districts inside Milwaukee that did not change at all between the 2022 map and Governor Evers’ map. This was done to prevent any possible VRA issues, which had previously sunk his maps back in 2022. This is one of two VRA Hispanic districts in the Assembly, in fact this is the most Hispanic district in the state. It is also the Assembly district with the lowest voter turnout and the highest swing to Trump vis-à-vis 2016, which will not be an issue for Democrats in this Solid Democratic seat, but things would be easier in statewide elections if turnout and performance was better here this fall.

Assembly District 09
Counties: Milwaukee
Largest Municipality: City of Milwaukee (Near South Central)
Demographics: 25.0% White (-12.2%) 58.0% Hispanic (7.0%) 10.6% Black (2.3%) 7.0% AAPI (3.0%) 4.3% Natvie (1.7%)
Population Growth: 0.9%
PVI: D+21 (D/R+0)
2020 Turnout: 55.6%
2020 Pres: 70.2% Biden - 28.3% (Biden/Trump +0.0)
Pres Swing: 2.0% Trump
2022 Avg: 71.5% Democrats - 26.8% Republicans
Incumbent Party: Democrat
Incumbent Representative: Marisabel Cabrera (Milwaukee - 09)
Description: Another seat that did not change at all between the 2022 and 2024 maps. Would not shock me if this district was the most Hispanic district after the 2030 census. Another seat where Democrats would like to see the turnout and performance increase, but still a very Solid Democratic seat.

Swing Map:
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3151 on: March 03, 2024, 12:05:45 PM »

Two for one special today. I also added 2020 voter turnout (Total 2020 votes/2020 CVAP).
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #3152 on: March 04, 2024, 08:27:03 AM »

From Gass’s latest post I really, really hope Bathroom Bob Donovan gets the boot. Bathroom peeping alcoholic racist.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3153 on: March 04, 2024, 03:36:37 PM »
« Edited: March 14, 2024, 08:39:41 PM by Gass3268 »



Senate District 04
Counties: Milwaukee
Largest Municipality: City of Milwaukee (Far North)
Demographics: 24.7% White (-4.9%) 5.6% Hispanic (1.4%) 62.8% Black (.9%) 7.2% AAPI (2.4%) 1.5% Native (.3%)
Population Growth: -4.88%
PVI: D+33 (D/R+0)
2020 Turnout: 62.9%
2020 Pres: 83.5% Biden - 15.1% Trump (Biden/Trump +0.0)
Pres Swing: 0.9% Biden
2022 Avg: 83.8% Democrats - 15.0% Republicans
Incumbent Party: Vacant
Incumbent Senator: Vacant
New Election: 2024
Description: Similar to the other VRA districts in Milwaukee County, this district did not change at all from the 2022 map that was drawn by the state legislature. Governor Evers’ team was clearly scared from SCOTUS striking down his map in 2022 over VRA issues and as such just left most of the City Milwaukee to stay as drawn. Personally, I would have preferred the City of Glendale and the Village of Shorewood could have ended up in SD-08 as that’s a better community of interest, but I understand that some non-Milwaukee areas are needed to prevent the overpacking of African American Milwaukeans. This Solid Democratic seat is currently vacant as former Senator Lena Taylor took a judgeship in the Milwaukee circuit. Dora Drake (AD-11) and LaKeshia Myers (AD-12) are running in the Democratic primary of an upcoming special election (date TBD). Winner of that primary will be the new Senator here.  

Assembly District 10
Counties: Milwaukee
Largest Municipality: City of Milwaukee (Northeast)
Demographics: 39.1% White (0.6%) 5.9% Hispanic (1.6%) 51.1% Black (-4.0%) 3.8% AAPI (1.1%) 1.6% Native (.6%)
Population Growth: -6.2%
PVI: D+34 (D/R+0)
2020 Turnout: 71.2%
2020 Pres: 84.6% Biden - 13.9% Trump (Biden/Trump +0.0)
Pres Swing: 1.9% Biden
2022 Avg: 84.8% Democrats - 14.1% Republicans
Incumbent Party: Democrat
Incumbent Representative: Darrin Madison (Milwaukee - 10)
Description: This district includes the City of Glendale, the Village of Shorewood, and a decent sized chunk of Northeast Milwaukee. This is one of two Assembly districts that saw its white percentage increase between 2010 and 2020. Madison is one of two DSA members in the Assembly and he will ease to re-election in this Solid Democratic seat.

Assembly District 11
Counties: Milwaukee
Largest Municipality: City of Milwaukee (Far North)
Demographics: 11.1% White (-5.8%) 4.9% Hispanic (1.3%) 75.9% Black (1.6%) 8.7% AAPI (2.9%) 1.5% Native (.3%)
Population Growth: -5.8%
PVI: D+38 (D/R+0)
2020 Turnout: 56.0%
2020 Pres: 87.7% Biden - 11.2% Trump (Biden/Trump +0.0)
Pres Swing: 2.1% Trump
2022 Avg: 88.2% Democrats - 10.6% Republicans
Incumbent Party: Democrat
Incumbent Representative: Dora Drake (Milwaukee - 11)
Description: This district has both the highest percentage of African Americans in the state and the lowest percentage of white folks. One could possibly make a legal argument that this district being 75.9% Black could constitute illegal packing. As such, it is not surprising that this is a very Solid Democratic seat, but it could have a new representative starting next year if Rep. Drake wins the primary for the Senate seat.

Assembly District 12
Counties: Milwaukee
Largest Municipality: City of Milwaukee (Far Northwest)
Demographics: 23.8% White (-9.6%) 6.2% Hispanic (1.2%) 61.6 Black (5.3%) 8.9% APPI (3.0%) 1.5 Native (.1%)
Population Growth: -2.5%
PVI: D+28 (D/R+0)
2020 Turnout: 61.2%
2020 Pres: Biden 78.1% - Trump 20.3% (Biden/Trump +0.0)
Pres Swing: 2.7% Biden
2022 Avg: 78.5% Democrats - 20.3% Republicans
Incumbent Party: Democrat
Incumbent Representative: LaKeshia Myers (Milwaukee - 12)
Description: This district saw the largest increase in African Americans since 2010 as that community grows in what was once the Town of Granville. This district, like the last one, also saw a strong increase in the AAPI population. There is a growing Hmong community here in far northern Milwaukee. Rep. Myers is also running for the Senate seat, so there may be a new Democratic representative in 2025 from this Solid Democratic seat.

Swing map:
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3154 on: March 07, 2024, 09:25:25 AM »
« Edited: March 14, 2024, 08:38:50 PM by Gass3268 »



Senate District 05
Counties: Milwaukee & Waukesha
Largest Municipality: City of West Allis (West)
Demographics: 78.2% White (-8.2%) 7.7% Hispanic (2.8%) 5.7% Black (2.1%) 6.8% AAPI (2.1%) 1.8% Native (.9%)
Population Growth: 5.04%
PVI: R+2 (D+1)
2020 Turnout: 81.9%
2020 Pres: 50.8% Biden - 47.4% Trump (Biden +2.9%)
Pres Swing: Biden +9.1%
2022 Avg: 50.6% Democrats - 48.1% Republicans
Incumbent Party: Republican
Incumbent Senator: Brian Hutton (Brookfield - 05)
Next Election: 2026
Description: This district saw a minor change to its Milwaukee County portion and a major change to its Waukesha County portion. In Milwaukee County this seat gained the Milwaukee Zoo western arm and a sliver of an addition from West Allis. In Waukesha County however, SD-05 traded in all of New Berlin and eastern half of the Village of Waukesha for the Pewaukee area (both the City and Village) and the eastern arm of the City of Waukesha. This shifted the district from a narrow Trump win in 2020 to a slightly larger win for Biden. Another interesting note is SD-05 saw the second biggest decline in its white population between 2010 and 2020, only behind SD-03, with very even increases in the Hispanic, Black, and AAPI population. If this seat were up in 2024 it would probably be a Tilt Democratic today, but if the suburban realignment and future diversification continues in this district to 2026, this then shifts to Lean Democratic.

Assembly District 13
Counties: Milwaukee & Waukesha
Largest Municipality: City of Wauwatosa (West)
Demographics: 82.5% White (-6.6%) 4.0% Hispanic (1.4%) 5.7% Black (1.9%) 6.4% AAPI (2.1%) 1.2% Native (.7%)
Population Growth: 7.0%
PVI: D+4 (D+11)
2020 Turnout: 93.1%
2020 Pres: 56.8% Biden - 41.3% Trump (Biden +25.5)
Pres Swing: Biden +11.4%
2022 Avg: 56.7% Democrats - 42.2% Republicans
Incumbent Party: Republican
Incumbent Representatives: Tom Michalski (Elm Grove - 13) and Robyn Vining (Wauwatosa - 14)
Description: This district saw a radical change between the 2022 legislature map and Evers’ 2024 map. In 2022 this seat was all of the City of Brookfield, Town of Brookfield, Village of Elm Grove, and a small chunk of western Wauwatosa. Now it is almost the entirety of Wauwatosa that is in Senate District 05, the Village of Elm Grove, and the northeastern quarter of the City of Brookfield. This shifted AD-13 drastically to the left and will be a Very Likely Democratic seat and is the first pickup (D+1) (even though I imagine Rep. Vining will continue to serve representing this district)  in the Assembly for this series. Rep. Michalski's best bet would be to move to AD-15 and engage in a primary against Rep. Neylon or at this point just retire.

Assembly District 14
Counties: Milwaukee
Largest Municipality: City of West Allis (West)
Demographics: 71.8% White (-11.8%) 14.0% Hispanic (6.2%) 8.7% Black (3.7%) 3.7% Asian (.9%) 3.1% Native (1.5%)
Population Growth: -0.1%
PVI: D+1 (R+7)
2020 Turnout: 64.9%
2020 Pres: Biden 53.9% - Trump 44.0% (Trump +13.6)
Pres Swing: Biden 8.2%
2022 Avg: 55.3% Democrats - 42.9% Republicans
Incumbent Party: Democrat
Incumbent Representative: Redistricted to AD-13
Description: AD-14 goes from being a Democratic pack containing all of the western parts SD-05 to being a district centered in the City of West Allis. This results in a hard shift to the right, but still one where Biden won in 2020 by almost ten points and is such a Very Likely Democratic seat for whoever the Democratic nominee (presumably from West Allis) ends up being. I also should note the drop in the white population here over the prior decade and the strong increases in both the Hispanic and Black populations in what has been a more white working class suburb.

Assembly District 15
Counties: Waukesha
Largest Municipality: City of Brookfield (West)
Demographics: 80.4% White (-6.6%) 5.0% Hispanic (1.0%) 2.7% Black (1.0%) 10.3% AAPI (3.3%) 1.1% Native (.7%)
Population Growth: 8.7%
PVI: R+11 (R+1)
2020 Turnout: 89.0%
2020 Pres: Trump 56.3% - Biden 42.2% (Trump +0.4%)
Pres Swing: Biden +8.1%
2022 Avg: Republicans 58.2% - Democrats 40.7%
Incumbent Party: Republican
Incumbent Representative: Adam Neylon (Pewaukee - 98)
Description: Many of the districts in Waukesha County shifted to different numbers and were paired with other Assembly districts. In this case the old AD-98 essenaily becomes the new AD-15 (still centered in the Pewaukee area, but with western Brookfield taking the place of northern Waukesha), while the old AD-05 in essence becomes AD-83. Even with the large swing for Biden this is still a Solid Republican seat in 2024, but if the suburban trends continue, this seat could move onto the playing field by the end of the decade.

Swing Map:
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walleye26
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« Reply #3155 on: March 10, 2024, 07:05:02 PM »

The group that is trying to recall Vos announced they do have enough signatures to force a recall. https://apnews.com/article/wisconsin-speaker-recall-robin-vos-c12e8391c9e254327c5de344b640d067
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Duke of York
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« Reply #3156 on: March 11, 2024, 08:25:27 AM »

The group that is trying to recall Vos announced they do have enough signatures to force a recall. https://apnews.com/article/wisconsin-speaker-recall-robin-vos-c12e8391c9e254327c5de344b640d067
So how does the recall election work? Can Vos run in it?
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Mr. Matt
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« Reply #3157 on: March 11, 2024, 11:31:14 AM »

The group that is trying to recall Vos announced they do have enough signatures to force a recall. https://apnews.com/article/wisconsin-speaker-recall-robin-vos-c12e8391c9e254327c5de344b640d067
So how does the recall election work? Can Vos run in it?

Unless the GOP legislature changed it recently, it's just a regular election in the middle of the term. Vos can run in it, but he's probably going to have to face a primary first with the Trump-preferred candidate.
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Duke of York
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« Reply #3158 on: March 11, 2024, 11:53:35 AM »

The group that is trying to recall Vos announced they do have enough signatures to force a recall. https://apnews.com/article/wisconsin-speaker-recall-robin-vos-c12e8391c9e254327c5de344b640d067
So how does the recall election work? Can Vos run in it?

Unless the GOP legislature changed it recently, it's just a regular election in the middle of the term. Vos can run in it, but he's probably going to have to face a primary first with the Trump-preferred candidate.

This could backfire if he loses the primary or the general. It's very possible a MAGA legislator gets the speakership.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #3159 on: March 11, 2024, 12:04:20 PM »

The group that is trying to recall Vos announced they do have enough signatures to force a recall. https://apnews.com/article/wisconsin-speaker-recall-robin-vos-c12e8391c9e254327c5de344b640d067
So how does the recall election work? Can Vos run in it?

Unless the GOP legislature changed it recently, it's just a regular election in the middle of the term. Vos can run in it, but he's probably going to have to face a primary first with the Trump-preferred candidate.

This could backfire if he loses the primary or the general. It's very possible a MAGA legislator gets the speakership.

Vos is safe in a general.
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Duke of York
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« Reply #3160 on: March 11, 2024, 12:05:20 PM »

The group that is trying to recall Vos announced they do have enough signatures to force a recall. https://apnews.com/article/wisconsin-speaker-recall-robin-vos-c12e8391c9e254327c5de344b640d067
So how does the recall election work? Can Vos run in it?

Unless the GOP legislature changed it recently, it's just a regular election in the middle of the term. Vos can run in it, but he's probably going to have to face a primary first with the Trump-preferred candidate.

This could backfire if he loses the primary or the general. It's very possible a MAGA legislator gets the speakership.

Vos is safe in a general.

Even under the new maps? Could he lose a primary?
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #3161 on: March 11, 2024, 12:07:17 PM »

The group that is trying to recall Vos announced they do have enough signatures to force a recall. https://apnews.com/article/wisconsin-speaker-recall-robin-vos-c12e8391c9e254327c5de344b640d067
So how does the recall election work? Can Vos run in it?

Unless the GOP legislature changed it recently, it's just a regular election in the middle of the term. Vos can run in it, but he's probably going to have to face a primary first with the Trump-preferred candidate.

This could backfire if he loses the primary or the general. It's very possible a MAGA legislator gets the speakership.

Vos is safe in a general.

Even under the new maps? Could he lose a primary?

Yes he could lose a primary.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3162 on: March 11, 2024, 02:43:46 PM »

The group that is trying to recall Vos announced they do have enough signatures to force a recall. https://apnews.com/article/wisconsin-speaker-recall-robin-vos-c12e8391c9e254327c5de344b640d067
So how does the recall election work? Can Vos run in it?

Unless the GOP legislature changed it recently, it's just a regular election in the middle of the term. Vos can run in it, but he's probably going to have to face a primary first with the Trump-preferred candidate.

This could backfire if he loses the primary or the general. It's very possible a MAGA legislator gets the speakership.

Vos is safe in a general.

Even under the new maps? Could he lose a primary?

I haven't looked in depth to his specific district yet, but eyeballing it I'm guessing its much more Republican than his current district.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3163 on: March 12, 2024, 11:53:31 AM »
« Edited: March 14, 2024, 08:39:18 PM by Gass3268 »



Senate District 06
Counties: Milwaukee
Largest Municipality: Milwaukee (Near North)
Demographics: 27.4% White (-1.5%) 6.5% Hispanic (1.8%) 60.7% Black (-1.9%) 5.6% AAPI (1.2%) 1.8% Native (.5%)
Population Growth: -5.14%
PVI: D+35 (D/R+0)
2020 Turnout: 62.7%
2020 Pres: 84.8% Biden - 13.6% Trump (Biden/Trump +0)
Pres Swing: Biden +1.3%
2022 Avg: 85.1% Democrats - 13.5% Republicans
Incumbent Party: Democrat
Incumbent Senator: LaTonya Johnson (Milwaukee - 06)
Next Election: 2024
Description: Similar to SD-04, this seat did not change at all between the 2022 map produced by the state legislature and Evers’ 2024 map due to VRA concerns. This was previously the Senate district with the highest % of African Americans, but there was a noticeable decline here in the 2010’s. Not much else needs to be said about this Solid Democratic seat.

Assembly District 16
Counties: Milwaukee
Largest Municipality: Milwaukee (Near North Center)
Demographics: 25.6% White (2.4%) 7.3% Hispanic (2.3%) 60.4% Black (-6.9%) 6.9% AAPI (1.5%) 1.7% Native (.6%)
Population Growth: -7.1%
PVI: D+39
2020 Turnout: 53.1%
2020 Pres: 89.0% Biden - Trump 9.3%
Pres Swing: Biden +1.7%
2022 Avg: 89.8% Democrats - 8.7% Republicans
Incumbent Party: Democrat
Incumbent Representative: Kalan Haywood (Milwaukee - 16)
Description: Of all 99 seats in the Wisconsin Assembly only three saw a percentage increase in its white population. AD-16 saw the highest increase at 2.4 point increase as development boom (gentrification depending on your point of view) spreads into the Marquette, Deer District, and River West areas west of downtown. Another Solid Democratic seat in Milwaukee that did not change between the 2022 map and the 2024 map due to VRA concerns.

Assembly District 17
Counties: Milwaukee
Largest Municipality: Milwaukee (Northwest)
Demographics: 25.1% White (-7.1%) 5.2% Hispanic (1.2%) 65.1% Black (4.5%) 4.9% AAPI (1.1%) 1.6% Native (.4%)
Population Growth: -3.6%
PVI: D+33 (Biden/Trump +0)
2020 Turnout: 68.0%
2020 Pres: 83.5% Biden - 15.1% Trump
Pres Swing: Biden +1.9%
2022 Avg: 83.9% Democrats - 14.8% Republicans
Incumbent Party: Democrat
Incumbent Representative: Supreme Moore Omokunde (Milwaukee - 17)
Description: A Solid Democratic seat that actually saw the second highest increase in its African American population between 2010 and 2020, as western Milwaukee continues to diversify. Like the vast majority of the other Milwaukee based seats, this one did not change between 2022 Fun note, Supreme Moore Omokunde is Congresswoman Gwen Moore’s son.  

Assembly District 18
Counties: Milwaukee
Largest Municipality: Milwaukee (Near Southwest)
Demographics: 31.5% White (.1%) 7.1% Hispanic (1.7%) 56.7% Black (-3.3%) 5.0% AAPI (1.0%) 2.0% Native (.5%)
Population Growth: -4.6%
PVI: D+33 (Biden/Trump +0)
2020 Turnout: 67.0%
2020 Pres: 82.7% Biden - 15.5% Trump
Pres Swing: Biden +0.7%
2022 Avg: 82.9% Republicans - 15.7% Republicans
Incumbent Party: Democrat
Incumbent Representative: Evan Goyke (Milwaukee - 18)
Description: This district is a combination of westestern Milwaukee, including the Miller Valley and American Family Field, and southeast Wauwatosa. In a perfect world all of Wauwatosa would be in a district together, but it’s understandable that some of it is needed to make all the VRA districts work. This is the third and final district to see an increase in the white population from 2010 to 2020. This is a Solid Democratic seat like the other Assembly seats in SD-06.

Swing Map:
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #3164 on: March 12, 2024, 03:49:46 PM »


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MasterJedi
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« Reply #3165 on: March 13, 2024, 07:33:38 AM »

They’re in the process of trying to figure out if it goes by the old map or the new map that doesn’t start until November. If old map then he likely has survived and makes the MAGAts look like idiots.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3166 on: March 14, 2024, 08:58:59 AM »

We leave the City of Milwaukee here soon in the Wisconsin State Legislature breakdown, so things should start to get a bit more interesting as there are more changes, starting with AD-21 in the next group.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3167 on: March 14, 2024, 08:36:55 PM »



Senate District 07
Counties: Milwaukee
Largest Municipality: City of Milwaukee (East)
Demographics: 75.2% White (-7.7%) 11.5% Hispanic (3.2%) 6.2% Black (1.8%) 5.3% AAPI (1.6%) 2.2% Native (.8%)
Population Growth: 3.16%
PVI: D+12 (D+0)
2020 Turnout: 71.3%
2020 Pres: Biden 63.2% Biden - 34.8% Trump (Biden +0.5)
Pres Swing: Biden +5.5%
2022 Avg: Democrats 65.9% - Republicans 32.5%
Incumbent Party: Democrat
Incumbent Senator: Chris J. Larson (Milwaukee - 07)
Next Election: 2026
Description: Senate District 07 changed minimally in the 2024 redraw. It continues to include the City of Milwaukee east of the Milwaukee/Kinnickinnic Rivers, the three southern shore suburbs (City of Cudahy, City of South Milwaukee, and the City of St. Francis), and the City of Oak Creek. The only difference is the district completely vacates the City of Franklin and adds a very small piece of Greenfield. The result is a very minimal leftward shift for what was already a very Solid Democratic seat.

Assembly District 19
Counties: Milwaukee
Largest Municipality: City of Milwaukee (East)
Demographics: 77.1% White (-5.9%) 7.3% Hispanic (2.0%) 7.7% Black (1.1%) 5.9% AAPI (1.4%) 1.6% Native (.5%)
Population Growth: 8.7%
PVI: D+28 (D/R+0)
2020 Turnout: 69.4%
2020 Pres: Biden 79.4% - Trump 18.4 (Biden/Trump +0.0)
Pres Swing: Biden +9.4%
2022 Avg: Democrats 81.8% - Republicans 16.5% 
Incumbent Party: Democrat
Incumbent Representative: Ryan Clancy (Milwaukee - 19)
Description: This Assembly seat is the final district in Milwaukee County that did not change between the 2022 and 2024 map as a result of being between the VRA districts and the lake. This district takes up all of the City of Milwaukee between the lake and the Milwaukee/Kinnickinnic Rivers into the northern part of Bay View. This Solid Democratic district is represented by Ryan Clancy, the other DSA member in the state legislature.

Assembly District 20
Counties: Milwaukee
Largest Municipality: City of South Milwaukee
Demographics: 76.1% White (-8.6%) 13.6% Hispanic (4.4%) 5.6% Black (2.4%) 2.6% AAPI (0.8%) 2.8% Native (1.1%)
Population Growth: -1.8%
PVI: D+7 (R+2)
2020 Turnout: 69.4%
2020 Pres: Biden 58.3% - Trump 39.9% (Trump +5.3)
Pres Swing: Biden +4.4
2022 Avg: Democrats 61.4% - Republicans 37.0%
Incumbent Party: Democrat
Incumbent Representative: Christine M. Sinicki (Milwaukee - 20)
Description: AD-20 saw the addition of the City of South Milwaukee from AD-21 and in return it lost a sizable chunk of the far southern part of the City of Milwaukee, particularly around the airport. This is actually a logical change as it makes sense for all three of the southern shore suburbs (City of Cudahy, City of South Milwaukee, and the City of St. Francis) to be in the same district. The result of this is a Very Likely Democratic seat that moved a couple points to the right.

Assembly District 21
Counties: Milwaukee
Largest Municipality: City of Oak Creek
Demographics: 72.4% White (-8.6%) 13.6% Hispanic (1.8%) 5.3% Black (1.8%) 7.4% AAPI (2.4%) 2.2% Native (.8%)
Population Growth: 3.2%
PVI: R+0 (D+3)
2020 Turnout: 75.5%
2020 Pres: Biden 51.4% - Trump 46.7% (Biden +6.8%)
Pres Swing: Biden +4.4%
2022 Avg: Democrats 52.8% - Republicans 45.8%
Incumbent Party: Republican
Incumbent Representative: Jessie Rodriguez (Oak Creek - 21)
Description: In return for the changes made to AD-20, this district lost added all of the portion of southern Milwaukee in exchange for the City of South MIlwaukee. This seat also added a precinct from Greenfield in change for entirely vacating the City of Franklin. This resulted in a very strong leftward shift in this now Tilt Democratic district (personally I’d have this at Lean D as even in 2022 Democratic Assembly candidates won here by ~3 points) and is the second pickup (D+2)

Swing Map:
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #3168 on: March 19, 2024, 07:51:45 PM »

30 people saying the MAGAts forged their signatures to recall Vos.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3169 on: March 26, 2024, 04:56:05 PM »
« Edited: March 27, 2024, 11:42:29 AM by Gass3268 »



Senate District 08
Counties: Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Washington & Waukesha
Largest Municipality: Village of Menomonee Falls
Demographics: 83.4% White (-6.1%) 3.5% Hispanic (1.2%) 6.0% Black (1.6%) 5.5% AAPI (2.0%) 1.2% Native (.6%)
Population Growth: 6.55%
PVI: R+3 (D+3)
2020 Turnout: 91.9%
2020 Pres: Biden 49.5% - Trump 48.9% (Biden +5.5%)
Pres Swing: Biden +8.0%
2022 Avg: Republicans 50.3% - Democrats 48.5%
Incumbent Party: Republican
Incumbent Senators: Dan Knodl (Germantown - 08) & Duey Stroebel (Town of Cedarburg - 20)
Next Election: 2024
Description: A couple big changes can be found here in this district, that moves this district squarely into the competitive range. The district drops the super Republican rural/exurban areas in southwest Washington County and the Village of Sussex. In return, it adds increasingly competitive parts of Ozaukee County (City of Cedarburg and City of Port Washington). Senator Knodl has already announced that he will bow out of this race and attempt to run again in the Assembly. This will be a fascinating and super close Toss Up race in the fall.

Assembly District 22
Counties: Milwaukee & Ozaukee
Largest Municipality: City of Port Washington
Demographics: 90.0% White (-3.9%) 2.9% Hispanic (.8%) 2.1% Black (.6%) 3.3% AAPI (1.2%) 1.2% Native (.6%)
Population Growth: 7.4%
PVI: R+9 (D+7)
2020 Turnout: 91.5%
2020 Pres: 54.7% Trump - 43.6% Biden (+14.2% Biden)
Pres Swing: Biden +7.2%
2022 Avg: Republicans 56.4% - Democrats 42.2%
Incumbent Party: Republican
Incumbent Representative: Paul Melotik (Town of Grafton - 24)
Description: Assembly District 22 and Assembly District 24 essentially switched numbers. Compared to the old AD-24, this seat has added the City of Cedarburg and the City of Port Washington while shedding the most populated parts of the Village of Germantown. Doubtful this seat would flip in 2024, but if we see even close to a similar Democratic swing this year and Trump wins, this Very Likely Republican seat could be very competitive in 2026.

Assembly District 23
Counties: Milwaukee & Ozaukee
Largest Municipality: City of Mequon (East)
Demographics: 76.6% White (-7.7%) 4.3% Hispanic (1.5%) 11.1% Black (3.0%) 6.6% AAPI (1.9%) 1.0% Native (4.0%)
Population Growth: 5.1%
PVI: D+10 (D+0)
2020 Turnout: 94.5%
2020 Pres: Biden 62.9% - Trump 35.6% (+0.6% Biden)
Pres Swing: Biden +9.5%
2022 Avg: Democrats 62.2% - Republicans 36.8%
Incumbent Party: Democrat
Incumbent Representative: Deb Andraca (Whitefish Bay-23)
Description: This Solid Democratic seat is the main reason the corresponding Senate district is so competitive going into the Fall. It is more Democratic than the other two are Republican and it has higher turnout. Only change from the 2022 map is the northeastern part of the City of Mequon is added in exchange for parts in the west central part of the city.

Assembly District 24
Counties: Washington & Waukesha
Largest Municipality: Village of Menomonee Falls
Demographics: 83.7% White (-6.7%), 3.3% Hispanic (1.1%), 4.7% Black (1.4%), 6.6% Asian (2.8%), 1.4% Native (.8%)
Population Growth: 7.2%
PVI: R+12 (D+1)
2020 Turnout: 89.7%
2020 Pres: Trump 56.6% - Biden 41.7% (+1.6% Biden)
Pres Swing: Biden +8.2%
2022 Avg: Democrats 57.7% - Republicans 41.1%
Incumbent Party: Republican
Incumbent Representative(s): Janel Brandtjen (Menomonee Falls - 22)
Description: As previously mentioned, this seat essentially flipped with Assembly District 22. Also it is now a more compact seat including all of the Village of Menomonee Falls and the vast majority of the Village of Germantown. Very similar situation here as in AD-22 in terms of the competitiveness of this Very Likely Republican district. It should not be competitive in the fall, but another large swing towards the Democrats plus Trump could put this seat on the menu in 2026. This is also the seat that Senator Knodl plans on running in, He's running against Rep. Brandtjen who has butted heads quite frequently with Vos and Republican leadership as she feels they have been inadequate in investigation the 2020 election and just being crazy in general. My guess is Knodl will get the implicit to maybe even explicit support of the state Republican party.

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