California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I've heard rumblings about London Breed and Katie Porter. I think the most likely DvD race is Breed vs Porter because Porter is popular and charismatic and could probably pull enough votes in socal to make the general. Schiff could give it a go too but I think he wants to stay in the house and go for State AG or something someday.

London Breed isn't running

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Adam Schiff likely next Sen kicked off Intel Committee

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

At least we are gonna have two new Senators Adam Schiff and Ruben GALLEGO

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

London Breed or Katie Porter would be good.

Adam Schiff is another white guy for the Dems.

Feinstein needs to be forced to retire.

Feinstein, Menendez, Carper, Cardin need to go.

Bob MENENDEZ is Cuban we need Latinos in the S we have Padulla whom is Mexican, Bob MENENDEZ has helped D's solidify NJ since 2006 when he almost lost to Kean Jr and Kean Jr, Cartwright, Santos, Garcia and Brobert are on the endangered species list like Collns is in 26

If anyone can help D's defeat Kean Jr it's MENENDEZ he helped defeat him in 2006 by a landslide and Adam Schiff is very smart he is on the Intel Committee, not too many Ds are gonna go to the S because we are just 5 seats AWAY


As far as Cardin, D's are contemplating DC Statehood and two blk.Ds will represent MD anyways D' are contemplating DC Statehood after 24 because Act blue is targeting FL with Matthew Sancrainte, Brown, Tester and Gallego without Sinema and Manchin loses to Justice

Sancrainte is openly gay like Santos but has tons of money , Biden is only 3 pts back DeSantis inflated the polls with that IAN bounce but it's over because the people that lost money were rich people that lost Yachts not middle class or poor own boats

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Porter just had a big scandal regarding her treatment of staff, not sure she runs for senate at this point.  The main two candidates im likely to support at this point are either Khanna or Barbra Lee, though ill wait to see who announces and what their platform is before I make any commitments.

If she gets in, I'm all in on Barbara Lee. At this point, I think she'd be the frontrunner.

LoL Adam Schiff is the Fav he is anxious to get outta H

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Feinstein doesn't just have forgetfulness she is more conservative and threatening to block Filibuster reform, she ended up voting for it but that wasn't the real vote because it was a tied S what would happen if her vote is key to overthrow the Filibuster

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't have a preference in the race yet, other than NOT DiFi, who I believe will ultimately retire. I could see myself supporting Porter, but want to see who else comes forward.

It's gonna be Schiff v Porter

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have to wait for Feinstein and Feinstein said she isn't declaring right now

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Feinstein said she may intend to run why does she want to continue running because Pelosi, Maxine Walter, Barbara Lee are all 80, that's why I say wait for Feinstein but if Katie Porter loses she can always run for Gov that's why she took the risk either Sen Porter or Gov Porter


Just like we gotta wait on Gallego, 50/52 whether or not Manchin or Sinema wins or not Collins and Tillis DOA due to Golden and Jackson are Doomed anyways in 26

WE ALWAYS GOTTA WATCH OUT FOR MATTHEW SANCRAMAINTE IN FL TOO BECAUSE RS WANT TO CUT SSA AND MEDICARE

We will get a Filibuster proof Trifecta in 24/26/28 RS failed to get 230/240 H RS

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't see as of yet Porter winning this race with Feinstein even with Warren endorsement it's a jumbled primary if the top vote getter doesn't get 50% it goes to a Runoff in the Fall and I see Feinstein winning 52/48 but I see Gov Katie Porter in 26 Newsom is TL and will be focused on a 28 run which he will lose to Harris or if not Harris Wes Moore if he wants it

Users forget you can load up the primary and Feinstein has to win 50% and if she doesn't it heads to a Runoff Feinstein like Newsom is unpopular in Southern CA but she is popular in Northern CA and Porter won't cut into any support in SF that's how Newsom won with Villigosa he ran up the vote in SF like Feinstein, as I said we have to wait for Feinstein

That's why I don't have it in my signature and we aren't winning FL or TX Sen without Allred or Stephanie Murphy, our wave insurance is KY, LA, NC, MS Gov and OH, MO, MT and WVA

It's a reason why Kunce got in, Kander got within 3 in 2016, Gov Katie Porter is running for 26 and probably Barbara Lee I live in CA for 6 yrs and Newsom ran up the score in SF over all Ds in 2018, LA didn't want Newsom

So, to endorse Porter like she is definitely gonna be Sen is premature more like Gov Porter

That's why Feinstein said she was baffled why Porter entered the race she is focused on her legislature, and Pelosi, Maxine waters are in their 80s just like Feinstein, it's a Runoff Primary the top vote getters like the Mayor race go to a Runoff

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I really like Barbara Lee, but we need less elderly people in positions of power. America’s biggest problems stem from the fact that geriatrics refuse to step aside and let younger people take charge. I don’t know how true the allegations against Port are, but even if they are true, I could never support someone who is almost 80 years old unless they’re literally the only option like Biden. Except Bernie of course.

As much as this is true. I don't get how the "representation" argument for young people, which I generally agree with, isn't true for both Black people and women, especially in the Senate?

Tbch, I think the geriatric problem is inextricable from the problem of race and lack of diversity. I wish they didn't have to be pitted against each other here, but when it comes down to it, it's more troubling to me there are currently 0 Black women in the U.S. Senate than the average age, because the latter can be explained unfortunately in part by youth apathy, while the former is almost wholly consequential of social injustice and oppression.

In my opinion, there's no valid reason why states like Maryland, Virginia and Delaware don't at least have 1 Black senator and at the very least a Black woman as senator. It's 0 for 6 on both fronts.

Those are Dem-leaning states with high Black populations. But yet, all of the senators from those states are old/older White men.

Southern society isn't gonna recover from Jim Crow as quickly as most think. The fact that Black politicians thrive in Northern States where they are numerically small, e.g. Barbara Lee herself represents a district that is only about 10% or less Black, actually tells you all you need to know. Warnock is the first Black Democrat elected to the Senate from the South in 80 years of Democratic dominance in the Black community, meanwhile New Jersey, California, Illinois, Massachusetts all elected Black Senators.

Maryland in particular is a disgrace though.

Bestie I hate to break it to you but Jim Crow ain’t fully over yet. We have barely recovered from the civil war and the terroristic borderline warlord-esque aftermath of reconstruction and several decades of cutting off our nose to spit our face. I’ve lived in and out of the south and dear god the difference can’t be more stark. If y’all want me to elaborate I can’t but I don’t wanna derail this thread.

In terms of black senators, in the modern era of popularly elected senators only 2 of the 7 elected black senators where in the south. The first was in Massachusetts (which if you don’t know is used in the south as the stereotypical “the north was segregationist too!” state).

There have only been 11 black senators in American history compared to 2,002 senators total, or .5%. I haven’t done the math for senators since the VRA, but rest assured the number is still minuscule. I have done the math for number of congress members compared to population and black Americans were dead last (Lebanese Americans where first go us?). Black Americans (especially American born) have and continued to be extremely untrusted by the electorate to hold high office.

Garlin GILCHRIST is gonna run for Sen RS can't do to him like they did to Barnes

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I really like Barbara Lee, but we need less elderly people in positions of power. America’s biggest problems stem from the fact that geriatrics refuse to step aside and let younger people take charge. I don’t know how true the allegations against Port are, but even if they are true, I could never support someone who is almost 80 years old unless they’re literally the only option like Biden. Except Bernie of course.

As much as this is true. I don't get how the "representation" argument for young people, which I generally agree with, isn't true for both Black people and women, especially in the Senate?

Tbch, I think the geriatric problem is inextricable from the problem of race and lack of diversity. I wish they didn't have to be pitted against each other here, but when it comes down to it, it's more troubling to me there are currently 0 Black women in the U.S. Senate than the average age, because the latter can be explained unfortunately in part by youth apathy, while the former is almost wholly consequential of social injustice and oppression.

In my opinion, there's no valid reason why states like Maryland, Virginia and Delaware don't at least have 1 Black senator and at the very least a Black woman as senator. It's 0 for 6 on both fronts.

Those are Dem-leaning states with high Black populations. But yet, all of the senators from those states are old/older White men.

Dem establishment supported Van Hollen over Edwards in 2016.

As well as Cardin over Mfume in 2006

Mgume or some Blks are waiting for DC statehood

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Imagine thinking going to war with Al-Qaeda and its Taliban protectors right after 9/11 was the wrong decision.  With all due respect, it is simply a deranged position that doesn’t come close to passing the laugh test.

It was an utter catastrophe lol

I know… 4000 troops dead for nothing. Between 1 and 2 trillion dollars wasted. Hundreds of thousands of afghans dead or sent packing to Europe. But Barbara Lee Is the “deranged” one for not wanting ceaseless carnage with no goal

There is an open seat for Gov in 26 no one wants to lose the 24 Senate race but if Feinstein manages to won Porter or Lee can run for Gov, especially Porter that's why Feinstein may stick it out because others can run for Gov at least 1 mote term, Senator Grassley is the same age as Feinstein, and he won


Same with Sinema she may stick around because it will be hard for Gallego to run in a 3 way race and he can give the seat to Rs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a Runoff if no candidate gets to 50 then the top two goes to a Eday and Feinstein can get 46 percent in the primary but fail to get 51 in the GE

Also, there is an open Gov race Feinstein won't feel she is cheating Porter or other candidates if she is in because they can Run for Gov

I expect Feinstein to run she is the same age as Grassley but we don't know

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Schiff won't beat Katie Porter, he can only force a Runoff if Feinstein retires if Feinstein doesn't retire Schiff won't be in a Runoff lesson from Karen Bass and Rick Caruso females win, but then again there is an open Gov race in 26

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Schiff is probably screwed if it ends up as Dem vs Dem in November right? Seems like Republicans hate him so much they’d hold their nose and vote for Porter. Maybe for Lee too, but keep in mind that she is black.

Not really Karen Bass won over Rock Caruso's plenty of Latino females voted for Bass and they will vote for Porter
I doubt it. Being a male probably helps Schiff with the GOP

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I’m surprised there’s no big name in the Armenia community being thrown around for Schiff’s seat considering the massive amount of Armenians there.

Don't give Kardashians ideas.

Anyway we know that Schiff is the favourite for the Senate so they should be a fight for his old house seat.

Schiff isn't the Fav Caruso lost to Bass females rue Ca

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Thanks to the posters who know California (especially Sestak and coloradocowboi) who have been doing good work in this thread refuting misconceptions. This thread isn't nearly this bad right now, but I'm reminded of the summer of 2021 when the California recall thread on this forum was filled with endless commentary on the Caitlyn Jenner campaign. Focus on what matters and use your common sense to ignore what doesn't. It feels like people throw out all their intuition about political campaigns (intuition that would steer them in the right direction) when it comes to California. I can't explain why.

That being said, it's difficult for me to imagine Sacramento sitting this election out, and so it behooves us to understand what connections the candidates have to Sacramento. Katie Porter, as best as I can tell, has none; her first involvement in partisan politics was being elected to Congress. If she didn't have access to an army of small donors, this would be an insurmountable obstacle, and even as it is it's a real challenge for her. Schiff and Lee were both in the state legislature in the '90s before being elected to Congress, but Lee was in Sacramento longer and I think still has closer ties now. She was in the Assembly back when Willie Brown ran it and obviously she had a long-standing personal relationship with Ron Dellums. That she endorsed the Kamala Harris presidential campaign is an indication of her relationships with bigwigs in the California Democratic Party. My assumption is that these things do matter. (I'm not mentioning Ro Khanna here because it doesn't seem like he's going to run.)

A runoff between Schiff and Porter seems quite unlikely to me. Partly that's because they're both from the Los Angeles area, but it's not just about geography. Neither of them obviously have the sort of institutional support that candidates who win in California normally have. There's a lot of room in the race for a Democrat who's unlike either of them, and Barbara Lee seems to want to be that Democrat.

Schiff and Lee are my top choices. Porter is far back.

IMO NorCal always wins for some reason, and with Porter and Schiff split the southern California vote we could get Lee/Porter or Lee/Schiff. On the other hand, Porter might split the progressive vote with Lee while Schiff consolidates the establishment. It probably evens out to each of them having the same chance at making the runoff.

Historically that was true because that’s where the largest and wealthiest democratic base was. Not to mention that most of the SoCal vote was minorities. Recently however SoCal has become a massive democratic base in its own right and minority candidates can and have been winning state wide. The political center has been shifting south

This seems instinctively like it should be true, because that part of the state really is so much more Democratic than it used to be, but if you actually look for southern Democrats who have won statewide elections (primary or general) against serious northern Democratic candidates without having the benefit of incumbency, you find that the examples are few and far between. There's not much evidence that southern Democrats are more competitive in statewide elections than they used to be. To the extent that more statewide officeholders are from the southern part of the state now, it's because Gavin Newsom has had the ability to fill so many positions by appointment.

It's unlikely due to it could be Feinstein v Porter she hasn't retire yet

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Feinstein says she is still considering to run this isn't AZ where Gallego is favored in a three way if Feinstein runs Schiff wont make it to runoff it will be Porter and Feinstein and if , Feinsteinl doesn't run Porter will beat Schiff she is ahead 37/26

Both Porter and Feinstein stays in due to fact they think they can get 46% in the primary and 52% in the runoff

Feinstein said by March 24 she will decide we have a full year or whenever the CA D  Prez Primary is, I assume she's running and if she does Schiff has zero chance Porter will stand in front of Warren

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Schiff isn't gonna win it's gonna be Porter, either way v Feinstein or Schiff in the runoff she Porter is gonna win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Feinstein still a possibility? Heck, I almost want her to run at this point just to see how she gets embarrassed in a fifth or sixth place finish.

LoL  Porter and  Feinstein will do very well upstate CA Schiff does well downstate Porter is the fav but Feinstein or Porter can get 46% in primary and 52% in runiff

Porter does well because she has Warren behind her and CA voted for Bernie over Biden in 20 primary alot of Blks and Latinos like Warren, Porter and Bernie, Blks and Females Latinas are definitely voting for Porter the Blks voted for Bernie

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Porter v Schiff is Newsom g Elder II Newsom winning upstate Elder winning downstate and Schiff winning downstate that's why he is down 11

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Actually Schiff is the de facto R nominee he performance in Northern CA is on par with Elder Porter and Feinstein do very well in upstate CA where Schiff whom is losing Northern CAis down by 11 if he was winning N CA he would be down 3/5 not 11 in the Runoff

Schiff doesn't have any blk support whatsoever what can he bring to blks Blks and Latinos voted for Bass over Caruso that's how you know Schiff does poorly with blks

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC choked when they did not elected Beasley but Barbara Lee has zero chance of being Senator or Gov

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Carol Mosley Braun won't be heard from again she was put out there to confront Harris on Anita Hill by Obama and Biden campaign Dick DURBIN isn't leaving and D's are so close to winning a Filibuster proof Trifecta, all we need is AZ, MO, OH S with Gallego not Sinema a 2 more seats in the H Greene, Boebert and Santos are gone

He is chair of the Judicial Committee and even in a tie he can Discharge DC Statehood from Committee a D then the Filibuster is nuked and Voting Rights