California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Another interview with Laphonza Butler where she's hinting at a run

https://archive.ph/UizlG

Emma Hinchliffe: So, is this a temporary job for you?
Laphonza Butler: It is our early job for me. It is day six. I literally went through orientation, which is usually three days in like four hours. And so, I will say it’s an early job for me. But my life has been one that has been dedicated to service and that is my commitment.

Commitment to a life dedicated to service doesn't sound like she's just going to stand down from the Senate.

Or laying the groundwork for Governor? She has a much better chance in 2026 after a good tenure as caretaker where she boosts her name ID. The Gov field for 2026 is pretty wide open right now with no obvious frontrunner.

Lol the last poll had her tied and it's a Runoffs

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1713704954941120690

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1713704954941120690

Adam Schiff had nearly half of Lee's total haul in just investment income on his COH ($486 K).

[MarkD]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1713704954941120690

Maybe all those donors to Schiff's campaign think they're donating to the TV character Steven Hill portrayed in the first ten seasons of the Law & Order series. Sometimes people don't know the difference between a fictional character in a TV show and real people who happen to have the same name.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1714449341857824945
Maryland's third Senator got appointed to Judiciary. Why were people dooming about this again?

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1714449341857824945
Maryland's third Senator got appointed to Judiciary. Why were people dooming about this again?

It was all a deeply fraudulent faux crisis with the intention of stealing a Senate seat mid-primary for the third-place candidate. Just spectacularly bad faith all around.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1714567833969893465

Pascucci outlined a run as a moderate consensus builder in a field of bomb-throwing partisans. The 38-year-old Democrat described herself as a "truth-seeker" who would focus on legislating, adding she would apply the same approach she did to newsgathering.

"I've been covering the most pressing issues of California for the past 15 years and watching this race closely, as well as covering it and interviewing some of the candidates," Pascucci said in the interview Tuesday. "And the more I watched it, the more closely I studied it, I honestly felt dismayed by how it was shaping up. I spoke to a lot of others who felt the same way. Like, this is our future — more of the same."

Pascucci and her team also said she would work to appeal to Latinos and other voters who haven't been swayed by a trio of far better-known Democrats in the race, Reps. Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee. Schiff and Porter have been atop the field in fundraising and polling for months, trading leads that have hovered in the high teens, but not breaking away.

[Zedonathin2020]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1714567833969893465

Pascucci outlined a run as a moderate consensus builder in a field of bomb-throwing partisans. The 38-year-old Democrat described herself as a "truth-seeker" who would focus on legislating, adding she would apply the same approach she did to newsgathering.

"I've been covering the most pressing issues of California for the past 15 years and watching this race closely, as well as covering it and interviewing some of the candidates," Pascucci said in the interview Tuesday. "And the more I watched it, the more closely I studied it, I honestly felt dismayed by how it was shaping up. I spoke to a lot of others who felt the same way. Like, this is our future — more of the same."

Pascucci and her team also said she would work to appeal to Latinos and other voters who haven't been swayed by a trio of far better-known Democrats in the race, Reps. Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee. Schiff and Porter have been atop the field in fundraising and polling for months, trading leads that have hovered in the high teens, but not breaking away.

Okay cool. Let’s continue talk about the only three (two?) that have a chance at actually being elected

[Canis]

What if Steve Garvey gets the CAGOP endorsement?

He can't the CA GOP convention was Sept 29-October 1st. I wouldn't be so quick to count out Eric Early as the leading GOP candidate he got 15% when running for AG last year and he has the backing of Larry Elder and several county parties already and hes raised a decent amount of money. I do agree that Bradley will probably only get a few points but Garvey isn't a very strong candidate, this is his first time running for public office and with a state as big as California hes gonna need to raise a lot of money and get his name out fast our primary is only 5 months away now. He also hasn't been playing baseball for decades hes pretty unknown outside of baseball fan circles which isn't exactly a big voting bloc that has a high turnout rate. I don't see him unifying the GOP vote if anything I think its more likely that him and Early split the GOP vote down the middle with the other various no names taking a couple percent each making a runoff between one of the three Dem congress people in the race more likely.

[Greedo punched first]

Will de Leon 2018 voters be a large supermajority of Lee 2024 voters?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Katie Porter I already took You Gov Surveys is gonna be next Senator, they aren't even putting Schiff on the ballot

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1714449341857824945
Maryland's third Senator got appointed to Judiciary. Why were people dooming about this again?

It was a fabricated excuse concocted by Feinstein apologists for why she supposedly couldn't resign.

[Canis]

Will de Leon 2018 voters be a large supermajority of Lee 2024 voters?

De Leon and Lee have different coalitions and this election is 6 years later, their will be many voters who weren't old enough to vote or didn't vote in 2018 that will vote in 2024. Keep in mind 2018 was a midterm election and 2024 coincides with a presidential so turnout will be far higher I don't think you can really compare them. Feinstein won black voters in 2018 by a pretty healthy margin and they will be a big chunk of Lee's base but so will young people and progressives who voted for KDL. So id say of those who voted in 2018 and 2024 those who vote for Lee will be pretty evenly split between Feinstein and KDL.

[Greedo punched first]

California doesn't have a large African-American population, which is why I imagine that Lee 2024 voters will overwhelmingly be people who voted for de Leon.

[Minnesota Mike]

What if Steve Garvey gets the CAGOP endorsement?

He can't the CA GOP convention was Sept 29-October 1st. I wouldn't be so quick to count out Eric Early as the leading GOP candidate he got 15% when running for AG last year and he has the backing of Larry Elder and several county parties already and hes raised a decent amount of money. I do agree that Bradley will probably only get a few points but Garvey isn't a very strong candidate, this is his first time running for public office and with a state as big as California hes gonna need to raise a lot of money and get his name out fast our primary is only 5 months away now. He also hasn't been playing baseball for decades hes pretty unknown outside of baseball fan circles which isn't exactly a big voting bloc that has a high turnout rate. I don't see him unifying the GOP vote if anything I think its more likely that him and Early split the GOP vote down the middle with the other various no names taking a couple percent each making a runoff between one of the three Dem congress people in the race more likely.

Your Republican grandpa knows who he is and grandpa votes. Don't get me wrong, given the lean of the state and the time it's been since Garvey was a high profile figure he has no chance of winning but let's not pretend he is just a garden variety former MLB player. In the 70's and 80's he was pushed as the face of MLB.  His fame and popularity was probably equal or greater than that of Herschel Walker if you are looking for a jock turned pol comparison. Of course his personal life came crashing down late in his career as he became tabloid fodder for having affairs with at least three woman at the same time and getting two of them pregnant. He also lost a nasty custody battle with his ex wife. Bottom line I think Garvey has enough name recognition he should easily finish as the top Republican and that he has a good chance of finishing top 2.

[Minnesota Mike]

He can't the CA GOP convention was Sept 29-October 1st. I wouldn't be so quick to count out Eric Early as the leading GOP candidate he got 15% when running for AG last year and he has the backing of Larry Elder and several county parties already and hes raised a decent amount of money.

Early has $87,000 COH as of the last FEC filing date. That's bad for a third tier congressional candidate nevermind someone running statewide in California.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I made my list of candidates whom is gonna win and as I said once Feinstein died advantage Porter

[Greedo punched first]

Steve Garvey won a World Series. Herschel Walker never won a Super Bowl.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Blks and Latina women are moving from Lee to Porter

[Minnesota Mike]

Steve Garvey won a World Series. Herschel Walker never won a Super Bowl.

No doubt Garvey was the more successful professional athlete, but Walker is arguably one of the 5 best college football players of all time and in GA that matters more than what he did in the NFL. Plus Walker's prime was a decade more recent.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Okay cool. Let’s continue talk about the only three (two?) that have a chance at actually being elected

Steve Garvey it is!

[Canis]

What if Steve Garvey gets the CAGOP endorsement?

He can't the CA GOP convention was Sept 29-October 1st. I wouldn't be so quick to count out Eric Early as the leading GOP candidate he got 15% when running for AG last year and he has the backing of Larry Elder and several county parties already and hes raised a decent amount of money. I do agree that Bradley will probably only get a few points but Garvey isn't a very strong candidate, this is his first time running for public office and with a state as big as California hes gonna need to raise a lot of money and get his name out fast our primary is only 5 months away now. He also hasn't been playing baseball for decades hes pretty unknown outside of baseball fan circles which isn't exactly a big voting bloc that has a high turnout rate. I don't see him unifying the GOP vote if anything I think its more likely that him and Early split the GOP vote down the middle with the other various no names taking a couple percent each making a runoff between one of the three Dem congress people in the race more likely.

Your Republican grandpa knows who he is and grandpa votes. Don't get me wrong, given the lean of the state and the time it's been since Garvey was a high profile figure he has no chance of winning but let's not pretend he is just a garden variety former MLB player. In the 70's and 80's he was pushed as the face of MLB.  His fame and popularity was probably equal or greater than that of Herschel Walker if you are looking for a jock turned pol comparison. Of course his personal life came crashing down late in his career as he became tabloid fodder for having affairs with at least three woman at the same time and getting two of them pregnant. He also lost a nasty custody battle with his ex wife. Bottom line I think Garvey has enough name recognition he should easily finish as the top Republican and that he has a good chance of finishing top 2.

My grandpa is a life long democrat who has never voted republican in his entire life lol but your grandpa sure. I just haven't seen the data to back up what your saying. The video where he announces his run has less than 700 views on youtube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMy_U4ZzhjY&pp=ygUMc3RldmUgZ2FydmV5 Just because he was a popular star in the 80s and 70s doesn't mean hes relevant at all today or people want him to be a US Senator. In the one poll hes been included in so far hes running even with Bradley and Early and 22% of voters have a unfavorable opinion of him compared to just 19% who have a favorable one and 60% of voters have never heard of Garvey. I don't think the comparison to Hershel Walker makes a lot of sense either, Walker entered the race pretty early on and had Trumps backing. Georgia is also not California. This is an open primary Garvey has to appeal to Democrats, Independents and Republicans, and hes running against 3 Congresspeople whove raised a combined total of 44 million $. I only think hes got a real shot at making the GE if Butler enters the race and the democrat vote gets further divided. Garvey has far less time than Walker did to raise a lot more money than Walker needed to and get his name and message out there before march.

He can't the CA GOP convention was Sept 29-October 1st. I wouldn't be so quick to count out Eric Early as the leading GOP candidate he got 15% when running for AG last year and he has the backing of Larry Elder and several county parties already and hes raised a decent amount of money.

Early has $87,000 COH as of the last FEC filing date. That's bad for a third tier congressional candidate nevermind someone running statewide in California.

Early still raised $500k since entering in June, hes got a base of small dollar donors and he nearly made the AG general last year raising a little less than what hes raised in two months while running for senate. He also was outraised ten to one by Hochman in that race. Early has this network of donors because of the experience he has running for office which Garvey doesn't. I think Garvey probably gets more votes than Early but Early will still probably win a significant enough of the republican vote to prevent any R from advancing to the top 2.

[Zedonathin2020]

BREAKING: Laphonza Butler NOT Running


https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1715103631706361960?s=46&t=XC6qQa4mbo0E2o...

[Minnesota Mike]

BREAKING: Laphonza Butler NOT Running

As expected. Too far behind and too short a time to catch up. Gov in 2026 on the other hand.....

[brucejoel99]

BREAKING: Laphonza Butler NOT Running

As expected. Too far behind and too short a time to catch up. Gov in 2026 on the other hand.....

👀
https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1715107490256576797