California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[President Johnson]

Hasn't DiFi filled for reelection already? Although that just seems like a standard procedure. Anyway, I hope she goes away. She's long, long past her prime and it was disappointing to have her win 2018 again over DeLeon.

It's possible either London Breed or Katie Porter are the most formidable candidates here. Personally, I'd prefer Nanette Barragan (very unlikely to happen though), Fiona Ma or Eleni Kounalakis.

[President Johnson]

#AnybodybutFeinstein

However, I sometimes feel like Porter is somewhat overrated. California has several good options in their congressional delegation. Adam Schiff and Nanette Barragan would be my favorites, though I'm not sure either will run. The former probaly does have the statewide name rec to launch a winning bid in a state as large as California.

[President Johnson]

I'd lean towards Lee over Porter, but if Schiff gets in, I'm strongly rooting for him. The guy deserves a promotion.

Really interesting that most hopefuls among rank and file Democrats here don't even bother to wait for the Feinstein's decision.

[President Johnson]

Shifty Schiff alias pencil neck is in? Excellent news! Strongly endorsed. I always liked him.

Probably will be tough race between him and Porter with either having a chance to win. Feinstein makes a fool of herself still not ruling out another bid and waiting to 2024. Her retirement is long overdue.

[President Johnson]

Feinstein still a possibility? Heck, I almost want her to run at this point just to see how she gets embarrassed in a fifth or sixth place finish.

[President Johnson]

Feinstein still a possibility? Heck, I almost want her to run at this point just to see how she gets embarrassed in a fifth or sixth place finish.

If Feinstein runs I think she’ll become the de facto Republican candidate should no big names jump in.

Didn't Republicans hate her with passion for some reason for several years?

[President Johnson]

About time. I first thought she was going to resign as well. But glad to see she's finally going or about to go. Let's go Shifty "Pencil Neck" Schiff!

[President Johnson]

In case DiFi resigns in the coming weeks or months: With the campaign de facto ongoing already and high-profile candidates in, it seems reasonable to assume Newsom would appoint a placeholder who's not running for a full term in 2024? Who could that be?

[President Johnson]

Really, Newsom shouldn't have backed himself into the corner of saying he'd only appoint an African-American woman.

The best appointment, really is Kounalakis, because even if she did run, she'd be no threat in a primary, and she probably won't run because she wants to be Governor more.

Kounalakis seems more likely to launch a bid for governor in 2026 when her second term as number two is coming to a close. So basically following Newsom's footsteps. I think she has a decent shot making it into the general election.

[President Johnson]

I doubt Feinstein survives the full term.

Is this just a general assumption or has there been a recent update on her health? I haven't seen much lately.

Anyway, I agree with 52% of Democrats saying she should step down. Newsom would be well advised to appoint a placeholder.

[President Johnson]

Has Schiff more access to big donors through Pelosi's network or generally more grassroots support?

[President Johnson]

Senator Feinstein's daughter has power of attorney over her personal affairs.

 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/03/us/feinstein-husband-estate-family-fortune.html

Nothing wrong with someone taking over the personal affairs of someone who can no longer handle them themselves, I did it for my mother, but should somebody who can not be trusted to control their own life really be a US Senator?

Reminds me of my grandma, who has done likewise years ago and ironically is born just five days apart from Feinstein. I couldn't imagine her being in the senate today. I guess it would be best for her to resign and Newsom appoint a placeholder who's not running in 2024 so that it's a fair contest between Schiff, Porter and Lee.

[President Johnson]

Newsom is obviously right, and this was just obvious. The reaction of Lee seems kind of childish or bitter. She might have been an placeholder pick in case she didn't run, but this is a different matter.

[President Johnson]

The person would still lose to Schiff. He’s tailor made for the #resist crowd

Schiff even holds the distinction of having earned two nicknames from Trump. "Shifty Schiff" and "pencilneck". If I were him, I'd actually use that on bumper stickers.

[President Johnson]

This is one of the most disgusting campaigns for senate I’ve ever seen. Barbara Lee should apologize on behalf of herself and her surrogates and drop out.

https://twitter.com/pramilajayapal/status/1707985811617063056?s=46&t=o2RmfeV...

I agree (with you, not Jayapal). Playing the race card here is kind of lame. Especially when you're already running for the seat and down in the polls. Yes, black women are badly underrepresented in the senate, but fortunately Democrats have at least two excellent candidates in 2024 that are strong favorites to win (Lisa Blunt Rochester and Angela Alsobrooks).

I wonder whether Newsom would consider someone like Jerry Brown as a placeholder. I saw an interview with him a few months ago and the guy is as mentally sharp as ever.

[President Johnson]

I hope Weber gets appointed and runs herself.  Schiff, Porter and Lee are all pretty lame.

Schiff has a national profile though and he triggers Trump. Even earned two nicknames from him.

[President Johnson]

So like in 2022, there will actually be two senate elections in California in November 2024? The regular one and a special election for the lame duck period? That's actually kind of obscure. Technically the actual winner, if he or she wins both the special and regular, would again seniority over their freshman colleagues that are scheduled to take office on January 3, 2025. It would actually be hilarious in a Democrat vs. Democrat election with a split outcome. So one elected for two months and the other for a full term.

[President Johnson]

I honestly don’t think Butler runs for a full term (unless she has already said otherwise and I haven’t seen)—she strikes me more as a caretaker choice who will return to her work after her term with a much higher profile and even greater donor connections. If she does run for a full term, I would understand why but she strikes me more as an advocate than a legislator.

Agreed. What also speaks for a placeholder is - as has been raised by another poster - the narrow majority in the senate should usually require a senator to be present in DC for most of the time. Butler would have to campaign through a large state and probably miss important votes as Feinstein did for other reasons.

[President Johnson]

Might be jumping the gun a bit but I'll say now that the race is probably over. Butler has had several high profile roles, is fairly young but not too young, and has no reason not to run for re-election.

And the campaigns of Schiff, Porter, and Lee are designed as campaigns for an empty senate seat. They're not remotely designed as campaigns for challenging an incumbent senator who's a well-qualified mainstream Democrat with plenty of experience in Californian politics and a lesbian black woman.

They'd all probably be best off dropping out and running for re-election to their House seats– maintaining Senate campaigns just wouldn't look good in the new circumstances

Schiff has £32 million in the bank and very high ID- why drop out when he’s virtually nailed into getting in the final two?

What's he even going to campaign on? "I'm a mainstream Democrat like the incumbent but I'm also a white man"?
Funding doesn't mean anything if there's no reason for voters to go for you– imo the final two will be Butler and a Republican

Schiff can point to being an anti-Trump attack dog. I’m also doubtful that a Republican will make the top two. Who’s even running on the GOP side?

I completely agree. Schiff even holds the distinction of having earned two nicknames from Trump ("Shifty Schiff" and "Pencil Neck"). If I were on his campaign staff, I'd even recommend to use them on bumper stickers.

[President Johnson]

I honestly have no dog in this fight, but as an outsider who had no opinion on Lee before all of this, her campaign has been an absolute mess.

Same here. I wonder whether she's even coming in third in the June primary at this point. Assuming it's still Schiff and Porter who are out in front. Butler entering the pack would turn things upside down.

[President Johnson]

You can't stop BIG SCHIFF.

Can't sink the Pencil Neck!

[President Johnson]

Smart moves by Schiff lately.

What did Porter wrong that her campaign seems to flop that badly? She was considered a or the favorite a few months ago.

[President Johnson]

I'd honestly prefer a Democrat vs. Republican race instead of two Democrats fighting it out. Porter really seems to have lost momentum, if not cratered. But Schiff will be an excellent senator.

[President Johnson]

California once again slow in counting? Seems like not even 50% are in. Honestly, this is kind of sad for a first world country and its biggest state.

Whild I didn't expect Porter to advance to November, she performed worse than I thought.

[President Johnson]

The recent attitude by Porter and Lee and some of their supporters is testimony that they lack some maturity, in my honest opinion. And it shows that Schiff fully deserved to win. I'm sure he would gracefully have conceded at this point, had he come in third or fourth.