California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Sir Mohamed]

Am I the only one here who expects Feinstein to run?

Tbh, I wouldn't bet against her. I'll support any Dems that runs against her. She should resign... like tomorrow. Should actually have retired in 2012 already.

[Sir Mohamed]

I don't have a preference in the race yet, other than NOT DiFi, who I believe will ultimately retire. I could see myself supporting Porter, but want to see who else comes forward.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think Porter would make an excellent Senator BUT I do agree that it's kind of tactless to announce this bid when Feinstein hasn't announced her plans yet and amidst a natural disaster in the state.

I wasn't sure whether he's going to run, but if he does, I'll strongly lean towards Schiff. "Pencil neck schifty Schiff" greatly gained stature during the Trump years.

[Sir Mohamed]

BREAKING: Adam Schiff officially in

https://twitter.com/AdamSchiff/status/1618626586303160325?cxt=HHwWioDTyb2TwvYsAA...

Endorsed.

It's funny nobody cares to wait for DiFi's "announcement" of her plans.

[Sir Mohamed]

BREAKING: Adam Schiff officially in

https://twitter.com/AdamSchiff/status/1618626586303160325?cxt=HHwWioDTyb2TwvYsAA...

Endorsed.

It's funny nobody cares to wait for DiFi's "announcement" of her plans.

I mean given the fact that DiFi is old enough to have went to her junior prom with Jesus Christ himself, its not THAT surprising

Sure, but usually candidates still wait until the incumbent officially announces to retire. The ridiculous part of this is DiFi holding out so long. In fact she should have retired in 2012 already or 2018 at latest.

[Sir Mohamed]

i hope feinstein runs again, what a primary that would be

Just to see her come in 3rd or 4th in the June primary would be fun.

[Sir Mohamed]

California politics has become downright feudal in the past decade. Newsom and Schiff’s only appeal is that they’re next in line to the throne.

Schiff made himself a name during the Trump years. That's the main reason he has my firm support.

[Sir Mohamed]

Who the hell are Republicans even going to run? I think this'll end up being a D vs D lockout.

The national GOP will just ignore the race (wisely to do), with some random candidates taking votes from each other so that neither will advance to the November election. I think it will be a Schiff vs. Porter showdown.

[Sir Mohamed]

Finally, the Feinstein tenure is coming to an end, at least 6 if not 12 years late.

Predicting a Porter vs. Schiff runoff which is a total tossup.

[Sir Mohamed]

Imagine even more high-profile Dems jumping in taking so many votes from each other than it's going to be a R vs. R November election. Not going to happen, but still scary to think about. The jungle primary sucks, tbh.

I think it'll be Schiff vs. Porterin the GE. Starts out as tossup.

[Sir Mohamed]

This endorsement game is gonna be wild. They’re gonna be calling everyone from fmr senators to court clerks begging for endorsements

Hot take: Barely any of these endorsements matter.

Perhaps Harris making one could swing a few voters here, but I doubt she or Newsom bother to actually throw their support behind a candidate. Likewise Biden or Obama, whose endorsements would at least matter to a degree.

[Sir Mohamed]

In case DiFi resigns in the coming weeks or months: With the campaign de facto ongoing already and high-profile candidates in, it seems reasonable to assume Newsom would appoint a placeholder who's not running for a full term in 2024? Who could that be?

Perhaps he leaves it to DiFi herself to propose a placeholder. But I'm fairly certain it would a placeholder. That said, I expect her to serve out the term (or die in office).

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/scottshafer/status/1647061002385768451?cxt=HHwWhoDSqarQxNstA...

No one running for the seat should be appointed unless they drop out of the race. Let the voters have a say without giving any candidate a huge incumbency advantage. Newsom should name a placeholder, though I'm not convinced yet DiFi will step down before her term is up.

[Sir Mohamed]

Really, Newsom shouldn't have backed himself into the corner of saying he'd only appoint an African-American woman.

The best appointment, really is Kounalakis, because even if she did run, she'd be no threat in a primary, and she probably won't run because she wants to be Governor more.

Kounalakis seems more likely to launch a bid for governor in 2026 when her second term as number two is coming to a close. So basically following Newsom's footsteps. I think she has a decent shot making it into the general election.

Nah, she probably doesn't make the general. If she does, she loses. More high profile Dems will run.

Who do you think of? Fiana Ma? She'd be a formidable candidate, though I could see Kounalakis making it into the November election. It's not assured the race will be D vs. D either way, depending on the GOP field of candidates. Ever since adopting the jungle primary, a GOPer advanced to the GE. Kounalakis would easily win against any R.

To the best of my knowledge, she's already preparing for a run and expressed interest in running.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1648657838216978432

[Sir Mohamed]

A plurality wants DiFi to step down early.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1661703223084818433

[Sir Mohamed]

Every serious Democratic candidate supports court packing. Does it even matter who wins?

Court packing isn't going to happen and Dems shouldn't even waste any focus on the issue.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think it's clear Barbara Lee is suffering poor name regonition( she didn't have the same media presence like Schiff and Porter during the trump era) as well as voters being concerned about her age given what's going on with Feinstein.

Yup, that's a fairly accurate observation. Perhaps she'd so herself a favor and pledge just to serve a single 6-year terms. Whether that's what people looking out for is another question though.

The R-candidates even more suffer from low name ID. There's a small GOP bench anyway and the few better known ones are staying out because nobody wants to end up as sacraficial lamb or not even advance to the GE.

[Sir Mohamed]

Newsom has previously indicated he’ll name a caretaker who doesn’t run for 2024, right?

Yup, that's just what makes the most sense.

I expect him to announce a replacement after Feinstein is buried or at least after the senate paid tribute to her.

[Sir Mohamed]

Obviously this is unlikely, but if he's insisting on appointing a black woman:
https://twitter.com/foxnewspolitics/status/1708444907298275601

Press X for doubt.

Also, if actually one of them was appointed, I doubt they would want to serve as placeholder. Especially Markle would 100% run in 2024.

[Sir Mohamed]

Wow, that's a choice that was completely off my radar. But Newsome handled this pretty well and has yet proven again he's a force people should keep watching.

The interesting question now is whether Butler will actually run. I could imagine she ends up doing so. Then I might reconsider my support for Schiff. Perhaps other candidates would even start dropping out. Schiff and Porter still can go back running for their House seats again. We'll see.

[Sir Mohamed]

How anybody thought Barbara Lee ever had a viable path to the Senate is something that ought be studied by scientists. Her biggest issues since February are low name recognition compared to the normie dem darlings that are Adam Schiff and Katie Porter, her being out-funded compared to Porter and Schiff ($1,000,000 BL, $10,000,000 KP, $29,000,000 AS), and of course her ripe young of 77 (soon to be 78 in 2024, and would be 84 in 2030), she would’ve beaten out Peter Welch as the oldest freshman in the history of the Senate, which after Feinstein’s death isn’t a title anyone should want

Yup. I'm not even convinced she would have won with Newsom making the appointment.

[Sir Mohamed]

Very serious proposal by a canididate that's definitly got a good shot at winning according to all the "real" california politics understanders in this thread.

LOL, why not $100?

That said, I believe even $25 is unrealistic. It would be an improvement to at least go to $15 or $17. Latter is what Sanders called for.

[Sir Mohamed]

If Butler runs, a Republican could make it past the primary.

I dunno, they don't seem to have anyone standing out so far. It's more likely because the other Dems drop out. At least if polls show Butler taking a lead. Not sure this is going to happen though.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/BarbaraLeeForCA/status/1730637737101873623

Bragging about an endorsement from one of the most blatantly corrupt members of Congress?

The exact number of votes that will switch as a result: 0.