Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Torie]

This behind a paywall article about a peace deal is not worth reading, but it did occur to me that the perceived odds that Trump will be POTUS again affect the bargaining position of the belligerents. That elephant in the room was not mentioned really, but the clearer it is that Trump is a Putin asset (I will shut the war down in 24 hours), the more it matters what his prospects are.

We live in beyond the looking glass world now. The crazy scenarios too far out there to allow suspension of disbelief in a novel are now reality.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/12/us/politics/ukraine-russia-war-talks.html

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Even though Putin's wallet contains all of Russia's money, I don't think Putin could buy Trump. Whereas it is very easy and very common for one state just south of Russia.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

I can't believe Prigozhin is STILL allowed out there to put out these daily diatribes criticizing the war effort of a war that he's an active participant in. I guess the Russians letting open factions and rivalries (apparently) get in the way of the war effort at a crucial time is consistent with everything else we've seen from Putin's Russia. If Putin were to drop dead tomorrow who is supposed to keep Prigozhin, Kadyrov, Shoigu and all the other minor warlords united towards a common purpose without mass arrests and executions? Anyone?

Since the Brezhnev era, the so-called Russian Party has had a department of the so-called Osipovites. While the main Russian Party positions itself as moderate politicians and carefully filters its words, the Osipovites do all the dirty work and consist of completely insane extremists, compared to whom Bin Laden is a good boy.

The Osipovites can and should scold the main Russian Party in order to appear to be an independent force, so that the Russian Party seems to be a kind policeman, wisely managing in high positions, and the Osipovites seem to be individual crazy people who do not influence anything.

Now it doesn’t make much sense to continue this strategy, all cards are open, but apparently Putin is very used to it and still considers it convenient.

About the Russian Party and Osipovites, it is written in detail, but with rounded corners, in the dissertation
Митрохин, Николай Александрович. Русская партия : движение русских националистов в СССР, 1953 - 1985 годы / Н. А. Митрохин. - Москва : Новое литературное обозрение, 2003

[Storr]

I'm not sure what Prigozhin's end goal is, but biting the hand that feeds you feels risky:

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1657179402747125762?s=20

[Storr]

Based:

According to wikipedia, Kaliningrad was previously named Królewiec from 1454 to 1657 when it was a part of a fiefdom in the Kingdom of Poland.

https://twitter.com/apmassaro3/status/1657119911167270912?s=20

[CanadianDemocrat]

Again guys, still very early on. Prigozhin dooming as always. This attack was expected. I'll believe Russians are in serious danger when Klischiivka falls in the south and Berkhivka settlement in the north falls. As for now, any actual talk of encirclement of the city is inappropriate. For now there has not been any major breakthroughs.

Yesterday you were calling this a "Twitter offensive" (eg a nothingburger):

Yeah, no, this is a Twitter offensive. Seems like cope because I have found literally nothing. They entered some positions in a gray area west of the water channels and that's pretty much it. Meanwhile Wagner still advancing in city itself.

..when, sure, it isn't some Autumn-esque Thunder run through Kharkiv Oblast, but it's clearly more than what you thought the other day. You are so eager to tell everyone here that they are wrong and overdosing on copium that you are tripping over your own incorrect conclusions.

People upset about the slow pace of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, are ignoring the fact that Russia has been trying and failing to take a small city of 70,000 people for the last 9.5 months.

The Battle of Verdun went on for 10 months, the Battle of Bakhmut is longer then the Battle of Stalingrad. Russia hasn't taken a single major Ukrainian city now since July, it's almost a year.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1657141977878495233?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Rob Lee has a good thread including a tweet a couple hours ago on Bakhmut.

Looks like the Ukrainian Third Assault Brigade not only carried out the successful counter-attack today, but actually had been probing Russian positions going back almost a week.

I believe if you go the Tweet you can pull up the first six posts on the thread.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1657161614192173056?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Also have seen a few reports of Ukraine's 56th Motorized Brigade inflicting significant casualties on Russian the Russian 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, where allegedly the Brigade although not completely destroyed has effectively ceased to be a military unit because of extensive casualties.

So looks like basically a "one-two punch" here...

Ukraine's Third Assault Brigade confirmed on May 9 that the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces has fled Bakhmut.

The news, prior to the confirmation, was originally announced by Wagner mercenary group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin.

"Prigozhin's report about the escape of the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces from Bakhmut and the '500 corpses' of Russians who remained there is true. The Third Assault Brigade is grateful for the publicity of our success at the front," the Third Assault Brigade wrote.

According to the statement, assault troops killed 64 Russian soldiers during offensive operations in the southwestern outskirts of Bakhmut.

Additionally, "another 87 were on the way," the statement read. Among the casualties were Wagner mercenaries. Five Russian soldiers were also captured.

https://kyivindependent.com/russias-brigade-flees-bakhmut/



https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1657161435762290689?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Here is a snip of the NYT summary wrap-up:

The Ukrainian Army is advancing in attacks near the eastern city of Bakhmut, Ukrainian commanders said on Friday, in fighting that has shifted the front line only slightly but is exposing fissures, confusion and alarm among Russia’s forces in the war.

Russia’s pro-war bloggers were quick to claim that Ukraine’s long-anticipated counteroffensive had begun, but Ukrainian officials downplayed the advances and described them in more local terms. Ukrainian soldiers broke through Russian lines south of Bakhmut on Wednesday, they said, and then exploited that breach, assaulting Russian forces near the city and threatening Russian flanks to the north and south. A video that appears to have been posted first by the Ukrainian news outlet Channel 24, which said it was provided by Ukraine’s 77th Airmobile Brigade, showed parts of northern Bakhmut on fire on Friday evening.

Videos released on Friday by Ukraine’s 3rd Separate Assault Brigade showed soldiers piling out of armored personnel carriers and assaulting a Russian trench. “Forward, forward!” a soldier yelled in the video, filmed on a helmet camera. The soldiers dived for cover as Russian fighters threw a hand grenade, then ran forward and threw their own grenade into a Russian bunker. The video could not be independently verified.

“We advanced a little more on our flank,” said a drone operator in the Adam Tactical Group, who asked to be identified only by his nickname, Sem. In an interview on Friday, he described an overnight seesaw battle to the south of Bakhmut, in which Russian soldiers tried to recapture a position but were repelled by a Ukrainian artillery bombardment.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/12/world/europe/ukraine-bakhmut-russia.html

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

I'm not sure what Prigozhin's end goal is, but biting the hand that feeds you feels risky:

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1657179402747125762?s=20

I would not be surprised if the corpses shown by Prigozhin originally belonged to the regular army, which the Wagnerites shot with friendly fire, and now Prigozhin invents excuses for this one after another in the NLP manner beloved by the Russians.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1657284220551671810?s=20

[Antonio the Sixth]

Russia tried to destroy US-made Patriot system in Ukraine.

Russia tried to destroy a US-made Patriot air defense system in Ukraine last week with a hypersonic missile, two US officials told CNN.

The attack failed, and the Ukrainian military instead intercepted the missile using the Patriot system, the officials said, marking their first known successful Ukrainian use of the advanced air defense system only weeks after it arrived in country.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/12/politics/russia-patriot-missiles-ukraine/index.html

It's seems that Woody's hypersonic missiles failed.

When you're a Russian hypersonic missile, Patriot destroys YOU

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1657291450831237120


https://twitter.com/mathieuvonrohr/status/1657277344912900098

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1657353658412027904

[Logical]

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1657421519172128768?s=12

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1657435618325024770?s=12

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The mods are vile cowards! Raving hotcake cowards! They don't care about the rights of posters, they aren't even willing to care about activity on the forum! They are total scumhead scumbag cowards! There's even a moderator with Polack sympathies! Ban me, Virginia, you despotic Tsarina of this forum, if you please, because now everyone has heard the truth! I will return soon enough!

-Prigozhin, if he was an Atlas poster

[Torrain]

How much closer can Prigozhin get to open dissent before Moscow find a window for him to fall out of? Because this is the kind of thing they don't let opposition politicians say, let alone quasi-warlords with their own armies.

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1657421519172128768?s=12

impossible, Russia's flanks are strong.  At least that's what Bob told us last month.

You think Ukraine is going to keep Bakhmut?? Difference is that Russia doesn't have it's flanks exposed.

If you're comparing this to Stalingrad then the Ukrainians are the Germans in this scenario.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1657393088757735424?s=20

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1657368124788809728?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Hajun_BY/status/1657435153470291969?s=20

[NOVA Green]

More Discord leaks... Washington Post exclusive.

More in the article but you will need to use a free monthly pass or cough up the $$$ for a subscription.

This might be a bit embarrassing for President Zelensky, especially involving his standing with Western allies:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has won the trust of Western governments by refusing to use the weapons they provide for attacks inside Russia and prioritizing the targeting of Russian forces inside Ukraine’s borders.

But behind closed doors, Ukraine’s leader has proposed going in a more audacious direction — occupying Russian villages to gain leverage over Moscow, bombing a pipeline that transfers Russian oil to Hungary, a NATO member, and privately pining for long-range missiles to hit targets inside Russia’s borders, according to classified U.S. intelligence documents detailing his internal communications with top aides and military leaders.

The documents, which have not been previously disclosed, are part of a broader leak of U.S. secrets circulated on the Discord messaging platform and obtained by The Washington Post. They reveal a leader with aggressive instincts that sharply contrast with his public-facing image as the calm and stoic statesman weathering Russia’s brutal onslaught. The insights were gleaned through intercepted digital communications, providing a rare look at Zelensky’s deliberations amid Russian missile barrages, infrastructure attacks and war crimes.

The Pentagon, where senior U.S. military leaders were briefed on the matters outlined in the leaked documents, did not dispute the authenticity of the materials.

When asked if he had suggested occupying parts of Russia, Zelensky, during an interview with The Post in Kyiv, dismissed the U.S. intelligence claims as “fantasies” but defended his right to use unconventional tactics in the defense of his country

The Biden administration says Zelensky’s intercepted comments are not the cause for withholding ATACMS.

“Ukraine has repeatedly committed to employ U.S.-provided weapons responsibly and strategically when needed to counter Russian aggression, and we are confident that will continue to be the case,” said a U.S. defense official who, like others interviewed for this report, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/13/zelensky-ukraine-war-leaked-documents/

[Storr]

The 9th tweet just repeats the first one so I didn't post it.

https://twitter.com/Hajun_BY/status/1657492395393466371?s=20

https://twitter.com/Hajun_BY/status/1657492398824382465?s=20

https://twitter.com/Hajun_BY/status/1657492402267881473?s=20

https://twitter.com/Hajun_BY/status/1657492405879287811?s=20