Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

U.S. says Russia has recently added 7,000 more troops to the Ukrainian border despite promises of a withdrawal.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-russia-united-states-vladimir-putin-534fb1c355ff5f135ba0261cb1448c3c

[Middle-aged Europe]

I'm presuming that the "disturbing news" will be that, according to Russian sources, Ukrainians have suddenly decided that since a large majority of the Russian military is camped out near their borders  desperately looking for an excuse for war, they would be kind neighbors and give them one?  I suppose there are people who would be dumb enough to believe that.

No prizes for guessing correctly.

https://twitter.com/SputnikInt/status/1494215992599363588

What are the odds that this is a false flag... as in, Russians pretending to be Ukrainians or Ukrainians loyal to Russia / paid by Russia to do it to further Russia's interests?

Very suspicious, or let's say convenient for them, if Russia "suddenly" had a casus belli to invade after amassing so many of their troops at the Ukrainian border in the past weeks.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Which tonight? Tonight U.S. time or tonight somewhere else's time?

Moon Time.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I demand the withdrawal of all Russian troops from Europe.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Something appears to be happening at the border between the two forces.

BigSerg may have been right.

Like what

Not much, apparently.

[Middle-aged Europe]

BigSerg's sources are quite the disappointment.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1494712959712612354?s=20&t=y59BqjZGRr...

"Unsuccessful", huh? If Putin wanted to make it look at least somewhat credible he should have been willing to sacrifice that pawn. Effort: 4/10.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/ichbinilya/status/1494783504718217217
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1494788414205579265


     

Looks like those feisty Ukrainians are about to rip Putin a new a-hole... Russia should better withdraw from the border while they have the chance.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Not good

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1495742811748065285

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gleiwitz_incident

[Middle-aged Europe]

Guardian live news feed:

I have been talking to a senior official from an east European country after Putin’s staged security council meeting. The official expressed concern about splits in allied resolve in the face of a Russian recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk “independence”.

”It might be not a direct invasion, but instead ... recognition, then maybe dragging on some days or weeks before Russian so-called ‘peacekeepers’ enter Luhansk and Donetsk occupied territories,” the official said. “Then it’s a grey zone, where you are not sure if that triggers sanctions, especially for for some European Union countries which are further from from the front line.”

"Russians don't take a dump without a plan." - Fred Thompson, The Hunt for Red October

[Middle-aged Europe]

Of course, if there are sanctions Russia will come back with "where are the sanctions on the countries that recognized Kosovo independence?"   I doubt there will be the unity in the Western alliance to impose any sanctions anyway.

Over recent weeks and on the recent Munich Security Conference, the Western alliance actually made a very united impression. I just hope they follow through.

I guess you can count Orban out though.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It means that the invasion will occur (quite a bit more certain than before the speech), and that the recognition of these 2 separatist regions will be involved in the pretext for it. It may be that Russian troops go into there for "peacekeeping" or something, and then say they are "being attacked by the Ukrainians," and you can see where things are headed.

And here we have the "peacekeeping" operation.

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1495871597059706887

On the first day after the Olympics had concluded. Kind of obvious timing, Putin.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/UN_Spokesperson/status/1495896419961556992


https://twitter.com/antonioguterres/status/1495891540337696776

[Middle-aged Europe]

Switzerland is non-neutral


https://twitter.com/SwissMFA/status/1495882827208052742

[Middle-aged Europe]

In an usual move, the collective leadership of the Left Party in Germany - usually the most pro-Russian party along with the AfD - has denounced the recognition of DNR and LNR as a violation of international law and has called for the removal of all Russian troops from Donbas:


https://twitter.com/DietmarBartsch/status/1495879953879113730


https://twitter.com/SusanneHennig/status/1495996377519869952


Even Trotskyist co-chair Janine Wissler tweets: "this is no 'peace mission', but a violation of international law".

https://twitter.com/Janine_Wissler/status/1495912570095640578


I doubt that the AfD will follow suit though... they usually attempt to outdo the Left Party, especially in areas where the Left has started to move towards the "mainstream" and left a flank open.

[Middle-aged Europe]

In an usual move, the collective leadership of the Left Party in Germany - usually the most pro-Russian party along with the AfD - has denounced the recognition of DNR and LNR as a violation of international law and has called for the removal of all Russian troops from Donbas:

https://twitter.com/DietmarBartsch/status/1495879953879113730

[...]

I doubt that the AfD will follow suit though... they usually attempt to outdo the Left Party, especially in areas where the Left has started to move towards the "mainstream" and left a flank open.

Drinking too much alcohol at a party and vomitting afterwards is what I would frame a "bad choice", but NOT the recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk as independent (in the territory both "republics" proclaim - the whole oblasts respective, of which many parts such as the city of Mariupol are still under Ukrainian control).

Interesting we haven't heard anything of Gregor Gysi (Foreign Policy spokesperson of the parliamentary group), Sevim Dağdelen (spokesperson for disarmament) and Sahra Wagenknecht (enfant terrible) yet, gee, I wonder why.

Wagenknecht significantly softened the stance of her party's leadership in saying that the recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk violates "contradicts" international law and makes finding a peaceful solution "harder". She then literally uses the term "both sides" ™ © in the second sentence of her tweet.

https://twitter.com/SWagenknecht/status/1496059290427269121

I guess this was the toughest form of "condemnation" of Russia you could have expected from her.

[Middle-aged Europe]

That would be the German Green Party you can thank for making their country more heavily dependent on Russian-sourced energy. It would not surprise me if you dug into their finances you see some funds coming from Russia.

Leaving the fact aside that I have been personally acquainted with the German Greens' last three treasurers, I would like to point out that Annalena Baerbock had always been vocally opposed to Nord Stream 2 and subject to Russian desinformation campaigns during the 2021 election (https://m.tagesspiegel.de/politik/russland-mischt-sich-in-wahlkampf-ein-gezielte-diffamierung-von-annalena-baerbock/27291998.html). That would make Russian foreign policy rather schizophrenic and self-defeating wouldn't it? Also, the current exit from nuclear energy was passed by a CDU/FDP government led by Angela Merkel in 2011 (the Greens weren't opposed to that decision though, of course).

While I would be willing to concede that it is a valid opinion to hold that a simultanous exit from nuclear, coal, and (particularly Russian) gas as the Greens are proposing it is unrealistic, you are starting to delve into conspiracy theories here that could be considered equally unrealistic, if not more so.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I don't think so. I see a lot of people from other countries pointing fingers on Nord-Stream 2 and the gas dependence to be the roots of German appeasing approach towards Moscow. It surely is one of the reasons, but not the major one. German culture and mentality have by far the largest impact on its foreign policy.

 People learn from school to reject anything related to war. I, who went to school in Ukraine as well as in Germany, have noticed a great difference in the way history is brought to the students. German history books don't praise national heroes or military leaders. In fact even while describing wars the focus always seems to be NOT on generals and battles, but on suffering of simple people and on diplomatic efforts to solve the conflict.

It is also popular in german pop culture to mock the US and its militarism. Going to war to defend Ukraine in case of Russian attack isn't and has never been even an option here. In fact even speculating about any kind of military operation could mean a political suicide. As recent polls show, the majority of Germans even seem to oppose any new sanctions against Russia. In contrast people seem to prefer either a status quo, or even lifting current sanctions and making steps to reestablish a friendly relationship with russian government.

 Long story short: ignoring the social aspects and reducing the issue to just "Germany wants cheap russian gas" is stupid and won't help you to understand the motives.

Came across this interesting comment in a Youtube comment section, regarding the German government's seeming softness (trying to use a neutral descriptor here) on this issue.

While a lot of these points have merit - particularly the deep-rooted post-WWII pacifism which ironically is also a result of the denazification conducted by the Western allies - I would point out that recent opinion polling has showed that about half of my country does in fact support tougher economic sanctions against Russia, and there would be even a clearer majority on that one without the generally more pro-Russian eastern parts of Germany. The same opinion polling also shows that a definite majority of the German population opposes giving Russia weapons though, which is in fact a direct result of the aforementioned pacifism (that was pre-Donbass recognition though, don't know how the numbers would look like right now).

[Middle-aged Europe]

UN secretary-general is based.


https://twitter.com/antonioguterres/status/1496290209151000581

[Middle-aged Europe]

Regarding collusions between German politicians and Russian interests,  I think targeting the German Greens is incredibly dumb and misguided. You don't need too much research to find out that, after exiting chancellorship, Gerhard Schroeder started a succesful career as Gazprom lobbyst

It would not surprise me if you dug into their finances you see some funds coming from Russia.

There is a political party presently in power in a large European country that has been dragging its feet on sanctions and which, yes, has received significant financial contributions from Putin-associated Russian oligarchs over the past decade, but it is not the German Green Party.

If I had to rank the German parties from most pro-Putin/pro-Russian to least pro-Putin/pro-Russian it would probably look like this:

1. AfD
2. Left
3. SPD
4. CDU/CSU
5. Greens
6. FDP

(I decided to place the FDP ahead of the Greens because the former supports giving weapons to Ukraine. Their positions on economic sanctions and Nord Stream 2 must be pretty similar though.)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Regarding collusions between German politicians and Russian interests,  I think targeting the German Greens is incredibly dumb and misguided. You don't need too much research to find out that, after exiting chancellorship, Gerhard Schroeder started a succesful career as Gazprom lobbyst

It would not surprise me if you dug into their finances you see some funds coming from Russia.

There is a political party presently in power in a large European country that has been dragging its feet on sanctions and which, yes, has received significant financial contributions from Putin-associated Russian oligarchs over the past decade, but it is not the German Green Party.

If I had to rank the German parties from most pro-Putin/pro-Russian to least pro-Putin/pro-Russian it would probably look like this:

1. AfD
2. Left
3. SPD
4. CDU/CSU
5. Greens
6. FDP

(I decided to place the FDP ahead of the Greens because the former supports giving weapons to Ukraine. Their position on economic sanctions and Nord Stream 2 must be pretty similar though.)

It's based on rhetoric/intentions. If you consider the consequences, then AfS/Left had almost zero influence on Germany's politics. On other hand, Greens, who literally born out of anti-nuxxclear movement, are much more pro-Russian, because they/their movement/Merkel caused Germany's current reliance on the Russian gas in first place.

Putin should love his anti-nuxxlear puppets. I doubt, that without their help Schroder or Merkel would be able to pull through NS1 and NS2.

In a sense, the War in Ukraine is financed by money that Putin got, because Greens killed the nuclear power development in Germany. So it's not Putin who funded Greeens, and Greens who funded Putin.

So let me get this straight... the Greens' opposition to nuclear power directly caused Germany's reliance on gas, but the Greens' opposition to gas had no effect whatsoever on Germany's reliance on (Russian) gas... because the latter was just "rhetoric", while the former were "actions" (what kind of "actions"? Anti-nuclear protests that happened during the 1980s when Annalena Baerbock was just five years old?). Seems like pretty selective cherry picking to me where you arrange the facts just like you happen to need them, while ignoring any other factors that may have come into play.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I don't know why you bring up Annalena Baerbock, if it's pretty clear (no?) that I was talking about Greens [movement] in long terms. Indeed (as you mention 1980), "Greens" spent decades vigorously opposing nuclear, while their opposition against natural gas is nor vigorous nor so old.

You're throwing a lot of things together here. That the Greens of the 1980s and the Greens of the 2020s are one and the same for instance (hence my  Baerbock comment), not taking into account a lof of leading Green figures from the 80s are either dead (Petra Kelly) or had left the party in dismay (Jutta Ditfurth) by the 90s. Or that the Green/anti-nuclear movement and the Green Party are one and the same, despite the fact that many in the anti-nuclear movement had criticized and attacked the Green Party in the late 90s and early 2000s (and once again in 2011) for agreeing to a drawn-out nuclear exit that lasted for 20 years. If we're drawing the lines as close or wide as we happen to need them just to make a point one might say that the Greens and the CDU are practically one and the same too (as AfD politicians in fact often do within the political discourse), and "the Greens" are hence directly reponsible for the CDU's actions.

Even now, if SPD would somehow reverse NS2 decision, I think, thr Greens would in the end accept it. Would they accept reversing on nuclear power? Doubt. Because of them, Germany will be heavily depend on gas in at least 10-20 years. More than enough for Putin.

What you believe what might happened is rather immaterial, and also pretty theoretical considering that no political party except for the AfD is in fact supporting a return to nuclear energy in Germany. Yesterday you conceded in this very thread that Germany's decision to suspend Nord Stream 2 was the one you had least expected, so your insights into what's realistic to expect within the confines of Germany's political system may be limited anyway.

Consequences >>>> intentions.

That's strictly speaking true, but presupposes that the one you hold reponsible for the consequence in question is in fact (solely/primarily) responsible for that very consequence. And it's your presupposition that I have challenged in this case.

If I were the use the standard Green talking point here then the CDU/CSU and the SPD are responsible for Germany's reliance to Russian gas because they had failed to sufficiently expand Germany's renewable energy sector between 2005 and 2021. So by your logic the CDU and the SPD would then be the "most pro-Russian parties", because through their actions they're responsible for the consequence of Germany's continued reliance on Russian gas.

I do in fact not like to use that talking point very often because - even though it does, up to a certain point, contain some truth - I don't like the kind of black-and-white thinking you're exhibiting here. The world's a little more complex than "it's the Greens/CDU's/SPD's/Germany's fault".

[Middle-aged Europe]

Regime change in Moscow must now be the end goal. This requires stepping up cyber and information warfare efforts significantly, including the requisition of the services of all major social media companies. Clandestine funding of opposition groups in Russia with siginificant sums has become imperarative. Everything Russia has accused the West of in the past must now be done for real, and multiplied times ten.

Ah, and is there any way to suspend a country from the UN security council? I guess China could veto it, but that doesn't hinder all other countries to boycott Russia's attendence and meet in their absence.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Regime change in Moscow must now be the end goal. This requires stepping up cyber and information warfare efforts significantly, including the requisition of the services of all major social media companies. Clandestine funding of opposition groups in Russia with siginificant sums has become imperarative. Everything Russia has accused the West of in the past must now be done for real, and multiplied times ten.

Ah, and is there any way to suspend a country from the UN security council? I guess China could veto it, but that doesn't hinder all other countries to boycott Russia's attendence and meet in their absence.

So how are you going to get funds to ‘opposition groups’ if you also support draconian sanctions to cut the Russian economy off from the West? How will you prevent the Kremlin from impounding these funds? Most importantly, what ‘regime’ do you want to bring in in Moscow? Who will it be comprised of? Will the army be on board? The security services? How will you make it legitimate to those Russians who aren’t emigrés or living in the Petersburg/Moscow bubble?

I think this escalation by Putin may well be an overreach that brings harm to the Russian people as well as those of the Ukraine. Nonetheless, talk of the West attempting ‘regime’ change in Russia  is foolish and irresponsible, especially if it percolates up to people holding actual positions on power in western countries.

It's not foolish and irresponsible. It's what's necessary.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Fyodor Smolov, striker for Dynamo Moscow and member of the Russian national football team, has posted a black picture on Instagram with the comment "No to war" and an Ukrainian flag.


https://www.instagram.com/p/CaWrE-nMcyz/


Welcome to the resistance!