Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

"Ukraine is winning". Meanwhile it's still losing it's positions in the city. Russia regaining some lost settlements in Kharkiv region.

https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1658078068093624320?cxt=HHwWgICxqfrN1oIuA...

Russia took a f@cking street run for the damn hills

[NOVA Green]

"Ukraine is winning". Meanwhile it's still losing it's positions in the city. Russia regaining some lost settlements in Kharkiv region.

https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1658078068093624320?cxt=HHwWgICxqfrN1oIuA...

Russia took a f@cking street run for the damn hills

This song came out in '82 as part of British Heavy Metal wave 2.0.

Was in elementary / middle school around that time period, first time I had ever seen Brass Knuckles and Switchblade knives.

Original music video song is basically about Native Americans and their resistance against the "Colonizers", which appears to represent the perspective of the "Colonized".

Regardless of whom is supposed to run for the hills in this song, it is pretty clear that within the context of Ukraine, Russian soldiers should be running away from the brutal battles of frontline trenches, especially now that Ukraine apparently has long range shells courtesy of the UK, combined with other assets well capable of hitting Russian Command and Control positions, Ammo & Fuel dumps, not to mention major concentrations of Russian armored units and anti-air defense systems well beyond the traditional range of recent Ukrainian military capabilities.

Russia is already suffering major losses around Bakhmut, while meanwhile Ukraine has roughly 9 BTGs in reserves with all sorts of Western combined arms and training, etc...

Sure Ukraine doesn't currently have much of an air force, but I would imagine if Sweden would donate some of their special stash in exchange for expedited and special delivery of US kit, might well help since their jets will actually perform much better on the runways and F-16 jets.

[CanadianDemocrat]

So apparently Russia’s strategy is to keep pushing through Bakmut itself while letting Ukraine attack the flanks. Yeah I don’t see how that could go bad

Depends how far each side gets and how quickly, but the Wagner guys in the city probably aren't that concerned. As long as they capture Bakhmut, they're getting paid. Who cares if the Russian army loses it later?

Pushing forwards while the enemy's flanking you on both sides always works fine. Unrelated image:

The Russians are using weaker mobilized soldiers with terrible morale, equipment and training to hold the flanks in Bakhmut.

The Germans did the same thing in the Battle of Stalingrad, they used weak Romanian, Hungarian and Italian forces on the flanks and used the German army to take Stalingrad. The flanks collapsed and the whole German army was surrounded and wiped out.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile we do have some info regarding the Ukrainian counter-attack South of Bakhmut and why it was significant not just within the context of a flanking maneuver....

Phillips is dope, and although I won't pay the $$$ for his new substack subscription still try to follow what he does post on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/TimInHonolulu/status/1657945704994836480?s=20

Meanwhile Benjamin (One of my favorite Geo-Location dudes from the past couple years), now tracks confirmed "Storm Shadow" strikes against Russian positions in Occupied Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1658002171785273347?s=20

Mike Ryan has a thread, where he thinks this does not indicate a proper Ukrainian counter-attack:

You will need to click on the link to see the entire thread.

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1658246198954975232?s=20

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Wagner is widely suspected of being a tool of the GRU, the people who make people fall out of windows. The fact that Prigozhin hasn't fallen out of a window yet is a VERY bad sign for Putin.

This is a common opinion, but GRU owned the Redut PMC, which completely failed at the very beginning of the war. I have no direct evidence, but based on open sources, it seems that Wagner is a structure within the FSO. Which allows the Wagnerites to insult the Ministry of Defense with impunity and contemptuously demand that it increase supplies. The FSO stands above the Ministry of Defense and above even Rosguardia (why actually Kadyrov with his Rosguardia's Akhmat called Prigozhin his elder brother), whereas the GRU is entirely subordinate to the Ministry of Defense.

The FSO is one of Putin's personal guard services, perhaps the most competent.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1658238624792444930?s=12

[Woody]

Patriot battery might have gotten destroyed in Kyiv a few hours ago. Some telegrams blame people for filming air defense when it's in action, and the Russians geolocated it.

Probably a few billion dollars down the toilet when you count the battery and some missiles destroyed along with it.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1658285328027746305?cxt=HHwWgoCwlYnutIMuA...
https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1658281863327129601?cxt=HHwWgoCxkbOks4MuA...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Patriot battery might have gotten destroyed in Kyiv a few hours ago. Some telegrams blame people for filming air defense when it's in action, and the Russians geolocated it.

Probably a few billion dollars down the toilet when you count the battery and some missiles destroyed along with it.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1658285328027746305?cxt=HHwWgoCwlYnutIMuA...
https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1658281863327129601?cxt=HHwWgoCxkbOks4MuA...

The Patriot has a distinctive radar signature, so geolocation would be less important than usual. It is also less mobile than even the S-300 system, so there’s a bigger window of opportunity for targeting it after a launch.

The evidence for its destruction is very thin right now, but it’s expensive and notable enough that I suspect the truth will out if it’s happened.

[Woody]

Another American (Green Beret) killed in Ukraine, Nicholas from Boise. Died in Bakhmut supposedly, as Prigozhin flashed his credentials. Guy even had an article written about him back in Idaho prior, about his new service in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/PharosReport/status/1658378314107482113

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Another American (Green Beret) killed in Ukraine, Nicholas from Boise. Died in Bakhmut supposedly, as Prigozhin flashed his credentials. Guy even had an article written about him back in Idaho prior, about his new service in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/PharosReport/status/1658378314107482113

Rest in peace.

[Woody]

The flanks have stayed relatively stable after 3 days. I think this is more likely an effort to get the remaining people out of there. If this was an effort to somehow threaten the Russians in Bakhmut it certainly failed. Failed to even get even one of the settlements in it's flanks.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/johnsweeneyroar/status/1658380931172818944?s=12

[Virginiá]

Parts of a Patriot battery's constituent systems can be decentralized, so even if a missile strike managed to hit something, it's not necessarily going to be a total loss of the entire system. Hitting the radar would be most critical, but I haven't seen any proof of that yet, and Ukraine is saying they successfully intercepted everything. Will have to wait and see what surfaces today.

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/525f042c-d35d-4dac-aaed-c5fbf0d6bbd2

"Russian oil exports hit post-invasion high"

This is April 2023.  Most of this export surge are toward PRC and India sold at a discount, of course. 

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Parts of a Patriot battery's constituent systems can be decentralized, so even if a missile strike managed to hit something, it's not necessarily going to be a total loss of the entire system. Hitting the radar would be most critical, but I haven't seen any proof of that yet, and Ukraine is saying they successfully intercepted everything. Will have to wait and see what surfaces today.

The radar would (in theory) be the easiest target to spot because of its signature.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Anyway, even if it wasn't destroyed, there are images floating around of used PAC 3 missile boosters in Kyiv - and the video allegedly from last night shows circa 30 launches.

This doesn't have to mean all of the launches were Patriot or that all Patriot launches were PAC 3, but that's quite possible. A single PAC 3 (the "cheap" version, that is) is $4m. Launching a full load makes sense when you consider that it's defending a system which costs close to a billion dollars, but this system is easier to detect and slower to move than an S-300 or SAMP/T.

This AD system simply isn't suited to a long war, especially for poorer countries like Ukraine, and incidents like this should serve to remind how much more cost-effective aircraft would be.

[Virginiá]

Anyway, even if it wasn't destroyed, there are images floating around of used PAC 3 missile boosters in Kyiv - and the video allegedly from last night shows circa 30 launches.

This doesn't have to mean all of the launches were Patriot or that all Patriot launches were PAC 3, but that's quite possible. A single PAC 3 (the "cheap" version, that is) is $4m. Launching a full load makes sense when you consider that it's defending a system which costs close to a billion dollars, but this system is easier to detect and slower to move than an S-300 or SAMP/T.

This AD system simply isn't suited to a long war, especially for poorer countries like Ukraine, and incidents like this should serve to remind how much more cost-effective aircraft would be.

In all fairness, Kinzhal missiles aren't cheap either. If Russia launched 6 of them (as was reported), that is around $60 million dollars itself. If you take the number and types of missiles Ukraine announced at face value, last night's strike cost Russia >= $120 million.

For now Ukraine doesn't have to worry so much about cost, but in the long-term, if Russia keeps harassing Ukrainian infrastructure, those costs could become unsustainable. Also worth noting is that layering their defenses and better integration of all their systems will let them more easily hold back expensive PAC missiles when identified targets can be taken down by relatively cheaper NASAMS/IRIS-T or other AD systems.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/frhoffmann1/status/1658393318378577920?s=12

[CumbrianLefty]

I would still rather we don't ever have to put that one to the test. Just in case and everything

[dead0man]

The flanks have stayed relatively stable after 3 days. I think this is more likely an effort to get the remaining people out of there.

an effort by the Russians or Ukrainians?

If this was an effort to somehow threaten the Russians in Bakhmut it certainly failed. Failed to even get even one of the settlements in it's flanks.

how long will it take Russia to finish taking Bakhmut now?  Do you still think Ukrainians should pull out?

[Damocles]

Anyone want to take bets on whether Putin will try to escalate the situation even further by killing Lukashenko, annexing Belarus, and installing a puppet regime? Possibly inciting a civil war within Belarus if the local people don't accept Putin's puppet?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Anyone want to take bets on whether Putin will try to escalate the situation even further by killing Lukashenko, annexing Belarus, and installing a puppet regime? Possibly inciting a civil war within Belarus if the local people don't accept Putin's puppet?

I see little to gain from doing this at the moment - Belarus has already surrendered so much independence since the electoral-type effect and subsequent suppression of protests. Russia could benefit somewhat from its army actively fighting in Ukraine, but it's already sending arms, providing airbase space, and providing training for newly mobilised Russians (some soldiers would have to stay behind to do that; why not the ones who can't be committed to the fight anyway?).

On the other hand, there's a lot of risk that things go pear-shaped, and even if they don't, Russia would need lots of troops to be on standby. If it happens, I think it will only happen after the current war is frozen or finished.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/MarquardtA/status/1658508441134981120
In one of the videos, what looks like a faulty interceptor can be seen heading back towards the ground and exploding. It is possible this is what caused the damage, in this case (most likely) to a launcher. The explosive payload would be lower than that of a ballistic/cruise missile.

The most likely alternative is that the radar was hit. This is much trickier to replace, depending on the damage.

[Storr]

Mostly sharing because doggo:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1658145397078999042?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/MarquardtA/status/1658508441134981120
In one of the videos, what looks like a faulty interceptor can be seen heading back towards the ground and exploding. It is possible this is what caused the damage, in this case (most likely) to a launcher. The explosive payload would be lower than that of a ballistic/cruise missile.

The most likely alternative is that the radar was hit. This is much trickier to replace, depending on the damage.

Twitter, good for debating things endlessly:

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1658524311047503884?s=20

And trolling:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1658467131800064000?s=20