Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1656734924534333441?s=12
For an army that is supposedly so well dug in the orcs are seriously jumpy and nervous right now

In every war in history russians always flee at the sound of gunfire, they don't want to fight for their Tsar.

Stalin had to resort in a second line to shoot them if they fled, to force them to fight.

When they believed that the Nazis where worse than Stalin and surrendering to them meant death, they stopped fleeing and surrendering and started to fight.

Now why is that, here are some of observations and conclusion based on russian history:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Russian officers where completely incompetent, so Tsarist Russia and the USSR always used non-russians in every administrative role in the government or the military, Germans, Poles, Caucusus tribesmen.

The entire Russian Aristocracy where Germans who spoke French as their main language, and even Lenin was a German who spoke English with an Irish accent as his main language.

The reason for the relative retardedness of the russian people is due to their history of being isolated in small villages in vast forests for thousands of years until the railroads came in the 1860's.

And because of Dictators who regularly removed anyone who was more competent and braver than themselves, so over many generations russians became less smart and less brave.

[Storr]

I'm staying skeptical until there is more evidence. Hopefully Ukraine is having success, but war related pro-Russian Telegram channels are not known for their accuracy or honestly.

Rest of first tweet: "We still have to see if any of this is real, but the situation is rather similar to September and November regroupings."

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1656728704498663430?s=20

[lfromnj]

So the UK has apparently handed out all it's promised Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine. Anyone have a number on how many? Only figure I can find is 14. If that's true, that's laughably low.

https://twitter.com/Lyla_lilas/status/1656661077244153857

They doubled it to 28.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

So the UK has apparently handed out all it's promised Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine. Anyone have a number on how many? Only figure I can find is 14. If that's true, that's laughably low.

https://twitter.com/Lyla_lilas/status/1656661077244153857

They doubled it to 28.

That’s 28 times the number of tanks Putin rolled out on 5/9

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1656681492834131969?s=20

RYBAR (one of the most prominent pro-Russian military bloggers) has come out their own map:

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1656773263375179777?s=20

[Torie]

At this point I don't believe much of anything, because so much of it is to silly bugger the enemy. We will attack later, not now, when we have WMD's,  hey we just got a bunch more awesome missiles and tanks, attack there, but is it real or a feint, it's Calais, Calais, any day now. It would be glorious that if and when the big push comes, we are all surprised as to when and where. My God, they are pouring on to the beaches of Crimea!

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1656784279844843520?s=20

https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1656768755819503618?s=20

https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1656768760059949061?s=20

[HillGoose]

the russkis are getting their asses handed to them

maybe they should decide to turn north and direct their war capacity towards those in the Kremlin that sent them on this hopeless war instead !

[Storr]

Ironically, N. Macedonia bought its three one-seat Su-25s from Ukraine in 2001, only for them to end up being donated back to Ukraine in 2022.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1656763290804969472?s=20

[The Mikado]

Woody says this is all untrue, though. Who to believe?

On the one hand, we have a notorious Russian propagandist who needs to be taken with a grain of salt. On the other hand, we have Evgeny Prigozhin.

[Badger]

Bakhmut Bob has been mostly silent for once. I take it Comrade Pigozhin and his band of assorted nazi losers aren't doing well?

As an added bonus and sign of the times, our resident not the least bit sociopathic would be child rape profiteer has been remarkably and blessedly silent as well. Bravo! Solva Ukraine!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You know whenever people whine about how aiding Ukraine is too expensive it's important to think about a point made about the UK's donation of Storm Shadow cruise missiles. This is actually saving the UK money.

Why? Bevause they were due to be phased out in a couple years anyway. And disposing of old stock safely is expensive. Donating them to Ukraine avoids this issue.

And that's also true of most of the equipment donated by the US. Only Russia hacks make this claim, it's not a good faith concern.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://twitter.com/treaschest/status/1656522699588378626?s=12

It will be very revealing if Prigozhin suffers the fate of Yue Fei.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1656585441343074305

Believe I mentioned this a couple days back...

Key question is how many, which for natural reasons will likely not be disclosed unless we get another "Discord Leak" style gig...

Will it fundamentally change the nature of the war?

Not likely unless it is in sufficient quantities and carefully used as part of combined arms offensive.

Still, UK is gradually increasing pressure on the USA to provide similar long range shells, and even the hard left of the British Labor Party generally appears onboard these days to provide all sorts of gear to Ukraine.

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/treaschest/status/1656522699588378626?s=12

It will be very revealing if Prigozhin suffers the fate of Yue Fei.

Prigozhin's an aggressor while Yue Fei was a valiant defender of home and country even when his own government didn't want him to be, and was a little too good at it. It'd be more like if Zelensky executed one of his top generals after the war.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

You know whenever people whine about how aiding Ukraine is too expensive it's important to think about a point made about the UK's donation of Storm Shadow cruise missiles. This is actually saving the UK money.

Why? Bevause they were due to be phased out in a couple years anyway. And disposing of old stock safely is expensive. Donating them to Ukraine avoids this issue.

And that's also true of most of the equipment donated by the US. Only Russia hacks make this claim, it's not a good faith concern.

In addition, the maintenance of military equipment requires constant costs in itself. Finding a buyer is long and difficult, each additional month means additional costs, and it's easier to give away for free.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://twitter.com/treaschest/status/1656522699588378626?s=12

It will be very revealing if Prigozhin suffers the fate of Yue Fei.

Prigozhin's an aggressor while Yue Fei was a valiant defender of home and country even when his own government didn't want him to be, and was a little too good at it. It'd be more like if Zelensky executed one of his top generals after the war.

You are right, there are no 100% exact analogies. I only mean the end of Yue Fei's career when the government forced him to commit suicide due to his disagreements with the government. And as a result, the army was defeated.

[Storr]

Ukraine War, 12 May 2023: Prigozhin's Flea Circus

"It’s a little bit strange situation: the amount and ferocity of panicky reports in the Russian social media about the situation in the Bakhmut area is reaching similar proportions like during their ‘humanitarian withdrawal’ from eastern Kharkiv, last year in September. The accounts in question are babbling about ‘breakthroughs’, ‘collapse of the frontline’, fighting for places 5km behind the frontline etc.

Hand on heart: I have no idea why. I’ll be happy if somebody can correct me but, to the best of my knowledge, as of this morning, all I can say is that several of ZSU brigades are actually running local counterattacks with the aim of lessening the Russian pressure upon Ukrainian supply roads into the town. Deepest advances of the last two days went some 500-600 metres, at most. Arguably, yes, the Russians have run away in quite a lots of places, have abandoned lots of armament, ammo and supplies (including lots of anti-tank guided missiles, about which they complain they have none) - and/or have suffered few hundreds of losses when not - but: in grand total., as of right now, I can only call this ‘battlefield shaping’."

[John Dule]

It doesn't seem like anyone's discussed this story yet. Pretty major news.

https://apnews.com/article/defector-russia-takeaways-karakulov-dossier-center-putin-42c570974c93255d178c5b373c9c12d3

Long story short: A member of Putin's personal security service defected. He's confirmed all the rumors about Putin's paranoia and isolation, but he disputes the claims that Putin is seriously ill.

I found this video to be a good summary (for those who have time):

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1656985383391973376?s=12

[Dereich]

I can't believe Prigozhin is STILL allowed out there to put out these daily diatribes criticizing the war effort of a war that he's an active participant in. I guess the Russians letting open factions and rivalries (apparently) get in the way of the war effort at a crucial time is consistent with everything else we've seen from Putin's Russia. If Putin were to drop dead tomorrow who is supposed to keep Prigozhin, Kadyrov, Shoigu and all the other minor warlords united towards a common purpose without mass arrests and executions? Anyone?

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1657014629959352320?cxt=HHwWgIDS5dqB8_4tAAA...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I can't believe Prigozhin is STILL allowed out there to put out these daily diatribes criticizing the war effort of a war that he's an active participant in. I guess the Russians letting open factions and rivalries (apparently) get in the way of the war effort at a crucial time is consistent with everything else we've seen from Putin's Russia. If Putin were to drop dead tomorrow who is supposed to keep Prigozhin, Kadyrov, Shoigu and all the other minor warlords united towards a common purpose without mass arrests and executions? Anyone?

Inner ex-KGB circle, supposedly (e.g. security guys like Patrushev).

[nicholas.slaydon]

https://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1657014629959352320?cxt=HHwWgIDS5dqB8_4tAAA...

RIP Freedom Fighter.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1656985383391973376?s=12

You mean.......its actually true??