Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

bigserge:

https://twitter.com/witte_sergei/status/1659004327430877184?cxt=HHwWgMDTlazp-4Uu...

I doubt Russia ever runs out of missiles. But, that does not mean we can't help Ukraine avoid running out of missiles.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The Biden administration continues to disappoint.

This is an easy case of "Just do it!".

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1658958100584439808

It should be noted that part of the US GVT reason for not supplying them has to do with the massive hit on a limited pool of $$$ currently remaining.

One Patriot system was valued at almost $1 billion - WITHOUT the ridiculous ammunition and maintenance costs. It was reported in Congress recently that Ukraine could be equipped with 36 older/existing F-16s for $2-3 billion (and this may be with the usual Ukraine aid accounting which has overstated the real costs).

If the upfront cost is the reason, it's a very poor one. At long range, aircraft are cheaper than the American alternative.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1659148150114746369?s=12

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1659148150114746369?s=12

sure, but we're supposed to be impressed that Russia hasn't run out of missiles yet.  That's the real story dontchaknow.

Russia:more like the Gaza Strip every day

[Woody]

Biden admin is warming up to the idea of a frozen conflict most likely happening, for years or even decades. Don't believe the counteroffensive will deal a "mortal blow" to Russia. Planning out the lines Russia and Ukraine won't cross (but no official recognition of borders).

At the moment they still have the will to send significant aid to Ukraine. I expect in 2024 they will reach a completely different doctrine as Ukraine will have to be even more reliant on long-term Western munitions and tech, and the election coming up.

It’s a scenario that may prove the most realistic long-term outcome given that neither Kyiv nor Moscow appear inclined to ever admit defeat. It’s also becoming increasingly likely amid the growing sense within the administration that an upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive won’t deal a mortal blow to Russia.

It would mean the number of military clashes would fall, the costs of supporting Kyiv also likely would drop, and public attention to the war would wane.

“We are planning for the long term, whether it looks frozen or thawed,” said a U.S. official familiar with the Biden administration’s discussions on Ukraine. The official said such planning is a growing focus of the administration, whereas in past months “it was all about the urgent and short-term.”

The amount of equipment sent directly from existing U.S. stockpiles has steadily diminished over the past few months, while the packages of aid used to purchase new weapons from industry — a process that can take months to years — has increased.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/18/ukraine-russia-south-korea-00097563

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1659148150114746369?s=12

sure, but we're supposed to be impressed that Russia hasn't run out of missiles yet.  That's the real story dontchaknow.

Russia:more like the Gaza Strip every day

Hey be nice it’s 05/18 and Bakhmut Bob still has to go “oh man Russia took another building in Bakhmut! It’s fall is coming any day now guys I swear”

[Woody]

Want to know why Ukraine is losing? It hasn't taken back a single city, village or settlement in half a year. Not a single one in 2023.

[Hindsight was 2020]

“Yeah Russia’s entire goal was to overthrow Zelenskyy and replace him with a puppet within a couple of weeks and it’s been over a year and instead Russia is stuck in the Donbas having suffered the highest casualties rates since WW2 but they’re totally winning guys I swear!”

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/iuliiamendel/status/1659194842235150336?s=12
😬

[crals]

Want to know why Ukraine is losing? It hasn't taken back a single city, village or settlement in half a year. Not a single one in 2023.

And what has Russia achieved in that time?

[Torie]

Well per the NYT, some good news. The oil price cap directed at Russia has had real bite.

"Russia’s oil revenues in March were down 43 percent from a year earlier, the International Energy Agency reported last month, even though its total export sales volume had grown. This week, the agency reported that Russian revenues had rebounded slightly but were still down 27 percent from a year ago. The government’s tax receipts from the oil and gas sectors were down by nearly two-thirds from a year ago."

Moreover, tax revenues from the oil sector are way down, and Russia is having to also divert money from the war effort to try to finance its own oil trade delivery  apparatus - ships, insurance and so forth.

The mission to BK Russia is alive and well, if not the yet the beginning of the end, at least per Winston Churchill the end of the beginning. Keep the squeeze on baby, and bleed them dry.

[CumbrianLefty]

Want to know why Ukraine is losing? It hasn't taken back a single city, village or settlement in half a year. Not a single one in 2023.

And what has Russia achieved in that time?

Is that claim actually true anyway? They've retaken land just in the past few days!

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/18/ukraine-russia-south-korea-00097563

"Ukraine could join ranks of ‘frozen’ conflicts, U.S. officials say"

[Hindsight was 2020]

Want to know why Ukraine is losing? It hasn't taken back a single city, village or settlement in half a year. Not a single one in 2023.

And what has Russia achieved in that time?

Is that claim actually true anyway? They've retaken land just in the past few days!

Nah they’ve retaken a small village here and there around the Svatove and Kreminna lines along with the counter attacks around Vuhledar but they don’t count for Bakhmut Bob because reasons I guess

[Woody]

Want to know why Ukraine is losing? It hasn't taken back a single city, village or settlement in half a year. Not a single one in 2023.

And what has Russia achieved in that time?

Is that claim actually true anyway? They've retaken land just in the past few days!

CITY, SETTLEMENT, VILLAGE. Not talking about a few KMs of hills and countryside.

Bakhmut Bob above me is lying by the way. The last time they took any settlements in the Svatove-Kreminna Axis was way back last year around November. They've been stuck around Kusemivka/Novoselivske ever since then.

Around Vuhledar, Russians are still stationed in Pavlivka, so that's another lie. They got pushed out of some dachas (villas) southeast of the city and that's about it. Cope all you want, but that's the truth.

[jaichind]

Well per the NYT, some good news. The oil price cap directed at Russia has had real bite.

"Russia’s oil revenues in March were down 43 percent from a year earlier, the International Energy Agency reported last month, even though its total export sales volume had grown. This week, the agency reported that Russian revenues had rebounded slightly but were still down 27 percent from a year ago. The government’s tax receipts from the oil and gas sectors were down by nearly two-thirds from a year ago."

Moreover, tax revenues from the oil sector are way down, and Russia is having to also divert money from the war effort to try to finance its own oil trade delivery  apparatus - ships, insurance and so forth.

The mission to BK Russia is alive and well, if not the yet the beginning of the end, at least per Winston Churchill the end of the beginning. Keep the squeeze on baby, and bleed them dry.

Technically true but we have to consider base effects



What took place was that in early 2022 Russia got a massive surge in revenue relative to 2021 mostly due to a surge in world energy prices.  2023 is reverting to 2021 levels due to a clear decline in overall world economic fortunes

[Torie]

Well per the NYT, some good news. The oil price cap directed at Russia has had real bite.

"Russia’s oil revenues in March were down 43 percent from a year earlier, the International Energy Agency reported last month, even though its total export sales volume had grown. This week, the agency reported that Russian revenues had rebounded slightly but were still down 27 percent from a year ago. The government’s tax receipts from the oil and gas sectors were down by nearly two-thirds from a year ago."

Moreover, tax revenues from the oil sector are way down, and Russia is having to also divert money from the war effort to try to finance its own oil trade delivery  apparatus - ships, insurance and so forth.

The mission to BK Russia is alive and well, if not the yet the beginning of the end, at least per Winston Churchill the end of the beginning. Keep the squeeze on baby, and bleed them dry.

Technically true but we have to consider base effects



What took place was that in early 2022 Russia got a massive surge in revenue relative to 2021 mostly due to a surge in world energy prices.  2023 is reverting to 2021 levels due to a clear decline in overall world economic fortunes

What were 2021 figures? Averaging all the way back to 2007 is not all that revealing as to the bite of the oil price cap.

Anyway, if you are right (at least to your implication), and the NYT wrong, that would be most disappointing.

[jaichind]

Well per the NYT, some good news. The oil price cap directed at Russia has had real bite.

"Russia’s oil revenues in March were down 43 percent from a year earlier, the International Energy Agency reported last month, even though its total export sales volume had grown. This week, the agency reported that Russian revenues had rebounded slightly but were still down 27 percent from a year ago. The government’s tax receipts from the oil and gas sectors were down by nearly two-thirds from a year ago."

Moreover, tax revenues from the oil sector are way down, and Russia is having to also divert money from the war effort to try to finance its own oil trade delivery  apparatus - ships, insurance and so forth.

The mission to BK Russia is alive and well, if not the yet the beginning of the end, at least per Winston Churchill the end of the beginning. Keep the squeeze on baby, and bleed them dry.

Technically true but we have to consider base effects



What took place was that in early 2022 Russia got a massive surge in revenue relative to 2021 mostly due to a surge in world energy prices.  2023 is reverting to 2021 levels due to a clear decline in overall world economic fortunes

What were 2021 figures? Averaging all the way back to 2007 is not all that revealing as to the bite of the oil price cap.

Anyway, if you are right (at least to your implication), and the NYT wrong, that would be most disappointing.

I do not have the figures.  I am just using the current account surplus as a proxy for likely Russian government revenue from exports.  The real numbers might show something different.  But my chart is meant to convey the unusual circumstances of 2022 and that Russia got a massive windfall so even if 2023 the revenue is much more megger the 2022 surge of cash does give them an extra buffer to to fight this increasingly long war of attrition.

[Torie]

I at least am patient. Hopefully the squeeze will get ever more Draconian, while the war gets ever more expensive for Russia. Squeeze them at both ends.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1659230180479565824?s=12

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1659230227569029121

[Torie]

Wow. 3 billion is still real money.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1659230227569029121

The article says it may be more than $3 billion.

Not convinced they are going to show their working here.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1659276145324355596?s=12
Biden has been overall great in getting aid to Ukraine but this has been a black mark on the resume so far. Give them the F16s dammit

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1659276145324355596?s=12
Biden has been overall great in getting aid to Ukraine but this has been a black mark on the resume so far. Give them the F16s dammit

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1659275109268353033?s=20