Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[dead0man]

Why would they invade when winter is around the corner?

solid point, war in winter is hard (even in 2021), but it's also not a good time for our soft brothers in Europe to be forced to give up their cheap Russian gas.  Perhaps Putin thinks that Dieter and Juliette would rather another of slice of Ukraine go to Russia than be chilly for a month.

[dead0man]

obviously no one is going to believe this story that doesn't want to, maybe this it is aimed  at Russians so they are less likely to consider stringing up Putin and the oligarchs if the war goes poorly?

[dead0man]

My sources tell me of widespread evacuations in the villages near the front lines.

On the Russian side because they are worried about the inevitable attack by the evil and all powerful Ukrainians?

[dead0man]

It seems Olaf Scholz indicated he cannot support cutting Russia off from SWIFT.

The SPD is worthless. Completely in Putin's pocket. If they are the ones frustrating a coherent and robust Western or European response, that should have consequences for the way we view the Scholz govt.

CDU would have done the same.  Shutting down SWIFT and Russia imports would have triggered an economic crisis in Germany.

oh no, we can't have that!  Germans are a soft, weak people who aren't known for their business acumen.  The world must protect the German economy!  If a few tens of thousands of Ukrainians must die, well that's a small price to pay to keep the German economy ticking smoothly.

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/GuyPlopsky/status/1497144822020259840

[dead0man]

oh no, we can't have that!  Germans are a soft, weak people who aren't known for their business acumen.  The world must protect the German economy!  If a few tens of thousands of Ukrainians must die, well that's a small price to pay to keep the German economy ticking smoothly.

I think is less about Germans being "weak" versus Ukraine is not a core issue for Germany.  Russia will get hit badly on the medium run by these sanctions yet Russian elites are behind their course of action.  The reason why is because they view Ukraine as part of their core national interests.  Swap out Ukraine for New Zealand and Putin did the same thing he would be soon put in the nuthouse by his followers.

This is why I have always been for the Great Power sphere-of-influences approach for international Great Power competitions.  Here I am 100% aligned with Putin in terms of what the international political model should look like. There should be a concert of Great Powers that make clear to each other what their core interets are and what they are not.  There will still be competition and conflict but the payoff matrix is clear to everyone.

Clearly, I do not approve of what Putin did.  He basically retroactively drew some red lines and claim that NATO and Ukraine crossed them.  It is clear he wanted to do this back in 2014 and was too weak to do so and think he is strong enough today to do it.  He should have at least given an ultimatum with a due day so all parties can negotiate with Russia knowing what is at stake and the consequences.  Putin kept on saying he will not invade and then claim his opponents cross a retroactively constructed red line and attacked.  He is not really obeying his own principles which I do agree with.

I don't know about any of that.  All I know is that if an entity can punish Putin right now, but doesn't because it might hurt their economy, that entity sucks and should be punished by the rest of us.  Perhaps we should start with sanctions.

[dead0man]

Indian sources say that Russia says it expects support from India at the UNSC as the body takes up the matter of Ukraine. Yesterday night Putin spoke to Modi in a call organized by the Russians to explain Russia’s reasoning behind the attack.   Not clear if India will act the way Russia expects.

India made it's bed by dealing with the devil for....it's entire existence.  Maybe it will continue walking the tight rope between Russia and the west, but it might have to make a funking choice here and now.

[dead0man]

Armor running out of fuel on day 2 or 3 of an operation you initiated is a sign you don't really know what the hell you're doing.  

You expect Russian equipment to break and the conscripts not fighting very well, but you don't expect them to lose so much equipment so fast, run out of fuel of all things and have 2 large jets full of some of Russia's best trained troops shot down?  That ain't a good sign for Russia moving forward.


This also confirms my belief that the PRC can NOT take Taiwan as the PRC's equipment and men aren't as good as Russia and it's far easier to invade a country you share a long land border with than it is to invade an island 110 miles from your shores.  The Taiwanese might not have the military might Ukraine does, but they have far better geography on their side.

[dead0man]

I assume that if Putin is insane enough to invade Poland, it would drag all of NATO into this?

yes, of course

[dead0man]

Is it possible Putin has fallen into the same "yes man" trap many other strong men leaders have?  As in:
1.strongman wins control
b.strongman gets rid of all dissent
III.strongman is surrounded by people who tell him what he wants to hear
D.strongman believes them, steps into something bad that should have been obvious

[dead0man]

UK starting to really lay down the law for money investments from Russian Elites....   (Per CNN ~ 1 Hr 5 Minutes ago):

"UK to crack down on "dirty money" from Russian oligarchs

so they knew about Russian dirty money before today but didn't do anything about it and they know about non-Russian dirty money now but they don't plan on doing anything about that?

[dead0man]

Torie, making me look up words.  "surcease", really?

[dead0man]

we need to do more then.

[dead0man]

I think I might just stop posting on this thread or minimize, since it doesn't really appear anybody gives an "eff".

Maybe better to shift and share news to my social network on Facebook, where at least it will get a much greater reach both domestically and internationally.

I have enjoyed your work in here for whatever that's worth.

[dead0man]

"Air superiority", sure, Jan.

That said, as much as I "enjoy" every Russian plane shot down and every Russian tank destroyed, I still feel kind of bad for many of the 20-something year old Russian soldiers not guilty of immediate war crimes dying in this senseless war, leaving parents, friends and spouses behind, for nothing. Mr. Putin for sure doesn't give sh-t about them.

agree, but the people flying the birds aren't those kids.  Efff 'em.

[dead0man]

So the leader of Isreal flew on the Shabbat, to meet a war criminal, who is currently using "look Nazis" as an excuse to invade a country?  Yep, we are in a strange timeline.

[dead0man]

Based

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1500147298520768515?s=20&t=otjnBT45zVM...

Judging from the photo they might even be on the verge of hitting the elevator weight limit, since I'm counting (10) guys plus all their gear!

the left wall is a mirror, it's just 5 guys.....5 guys having a very bad day

[dead0man]

There has always been moles in the Russian govt.

[dead0man]

I genuinely don't know if Ukraine will even exist in a month. The Russians will not accept anything less than their current demands.
 

Well this is what you doves wanted!

A ridiculous statement like this doesn't deserve a response, but I'll respond anyway because of your previous statements.

Thank Christ you're never going to be in charge of a country.

but you couldn't help yourself?

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500984893563670528?s=20&t=xXpOXLl9...

this is my field, I find this hilarious

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500984893563670528?s=20&t=xXpOXLl9...

this is my field, I find this hilarious

Can't they just use encrypted phones that still run off local networks or something? Sounds like a laughable own goal. Like I'd expect random African countries' militaries to be able to handle this.

Yes, they can.  They just have to encrypt the signal, which one assume they'd be good at.  Even if it's old Soviet era gear that western security peeps can easily decrypt, it still (probably) wouldn't be "hacked" by civilians.  I can't imagine how they have zero ways to communicate securely with "HQ".  Even an ancient tele-type system would be better than just using a burner phone like they seem to be.

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1501062747408281603?s=20&t=e1BKWWDkZZ2cD8...

they are also the most trained and most experienced.

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1500932401215819779

I'm no fan of Iran, but why are they so far ahead of Syria?  A nuclear program is a bad thing and a potential tragedy, but what Syria has been doing is, ya know, actually happening.

[dead0man]

They already had an export version, but they didn't have enough of them.

While Stinger/Javelin use is probably outstripping construction, the same is probably true of Russian aircraft ordnance.

Forbes article related to the subject

They are made in SE Iowa, there was an explosion at the plant in 2018.  They've since made some improvements, but it's still an outdated facility.  Seems like maybe we should cancel the next couple of naval destroyers and build a new plant that does this apparently very unique thing called a "large caliber ammunition melt-pour facility".  Stingers and Javelins (and whatever cool toys of war the future will bring us) are extremely useful on the modern battlefield and we should maintain the ability to produce them in large numbers when needed (assuming they don't mothball well).

[dead0man]

In addition to tough hypotheticals that are getting all too close to reality on no fly zones, we have another one lurking out there:

Saudi, Emirati Leaders Decline Calls With Biden During Ukraine Crisis
Persian Gulf monarchies have signaled they won’t help ease surging oil prices unless Washington supports them in Yemen, elsewhere

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-emirati-leaders-decline-calls-with-biden-during-ukraine-crisis-11646779430

Should Biden bend over on this one as the lesser evil?

no, he shouldn't.  But since he is the human manifestation of the "lesser evil", he probably will.


<see, I can use big words too sir!  Never mind that I got the red squiggly line underneath >