Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

So the descriptions (I can find an English language source) of the Russian the ‘proposal’ is reminding me of nothing so much as Chamberlain’s proposal to the Boers or the Australian-Hungarian ultimatum. A laundry list of demands the other side can’t meet in the period, designed to be rejected right before a war starts.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1473252813773975554?t=Ggbm3uI19R3kar3vz...

Came here to post this

And also this is very bad

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1473274123681992706

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1496901716876443648?s=20&t=IA9yLGC2x-U...

Why were Russia ships being allowed to cross the straits anyway? The Russians were building up an invasion to (theoretically) end increasing ties between Ukraine and NATO, why was a NATO member letting them move warship into the area.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Russia is getting their asses handled to them.

I wish I was this optimistic We are getting allot of Russians losing small unit actions, but they are, as best I can tell, still advancing. Overwhelming manpower and air superiority is hard to stop once it starts rolling.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/RepCori/status/1497023503043899399

I mean, what she appears to be saying is that she wants to see aggressive targeted sanctions against Russian officials and oligarchs rather than broad sanctions against the Russian economy. Given Putin’s insulation from public opinion, targeting very harshly and specifically Kremlin insiders and Russian elites is far more likely to undermine Putin’s political standing that measures targeted at the Russian population at large. I think we ought to be doing broad based economic sanctions as well because policy or regime change is a long shot and we need to erode Russia’s capacity to make war and sustain an occupation. But, her mistake here seems to be thinking we can wage war without getting any innocents hurt. That makes her a pollyana, not a Putin proxy ala Tucker Carlson or the most recent Republican President.
There are enough people spewing Russian propaganda that we don’t need to turn a random over idealistic congressman into a hate object.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

What is with this idealism from everyone here that a military agreement with the Russian Federation not related to nuclear arms control is worth the paper it's signed on? How delusional do you have to be to think they'd honor any sort of ceasefire/treaty?

Then war continues.

Russians are going to go until either Zelensky surrenders or they have removed Zelensky from power forcefully.

Yeah my point is that'll happen regardless of whatever talks occur. The die's been cast. We're at the point where anything less than capturing the Maidan is a failure for the Kremlin.

The Russians are showing some restraint here. It's been commented on by military types they're not using their artillery much at all when Russian military strategy historically has relied on artillery a good amount, and there's still plenty of soldiers on the borders that have not invaded yet. So they're not trying to kill everyone a la say Grozny, but if told "f#ck you, we're going to die to the last man", the artillery is being held in reserve and could come in. That could be the threat to force Ukraine to the table.

We'll see what happens at Minsk. Russian ground forces are in Kiev and we have a day and a half until the American military intelligence prediction of when it would fall.

Right but if Ukraine comes to the table and signs an armistice I don't see what/who is stopping the Russians from simply waiting a bit and trying again to take the whole country.

The Russians were always able to launch a similar operation against Ukraine.
What matters is does Moscow think it will gain from such an operation.
Putin won't invade just because he can. He invades if he thinks the situation demands it (which is not at all an easy threshold to reach).
From his public statements he clearly doesn't think this war is anything but defensive for the country he leads anyway. A good place to dig in and fight, with odds that are most in his favor.

What statements are you talking about? Russian official statements have been all over the place, but ‘Ukraine can not exist apart from Russia’ and writing articles about Russians as an inseparable triune people (that is Belorussians and Ukrainians are just Russian by another name) don’t seem to be consistent with being forced into a war of defense. For that matter, planing false flag attacks, making up stories about mass graves and genocide, and trying to plant articles about Ukrainians imaginary nuclear program are not things you do if you serious believe to be undertaking a defensive war.

Aside from which, he set out clear war aims the day he invaded. ‘Denazify Ukraine and liberate the oppressed Russian communities’. That is to say, he’s going to annex as much of Ukraine as he thinks he can hold outright, kill any Ukrainian official he gets his hands on, and install a puppet dictator ala his man in Minsk to force Russify the rump Ukraine, erode public institutions, hand over internal powers to Russian dominated international institutions, disappear pro-Western and nationalist dissidents, and cultivate a Russophile elite until he find the Ukrainians subservient enough to join the Russian Federation proper. That’s the end game here.

Why now, well large scale modern military ops have long lead times and between the Obama ‘pivot to Asia’ and Trump actively destroying NATO internally, he probably thought he had time to let Western capacities in Europe atrophy while swallowing Ukraine bit by bit.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1497267568461205509
Is Germany the only holdout now?

Lindner said Germany is open to it today

Thank god. I don’t know what’s going on with German leadership but they’ve been unbelievably soft focused and naive re:Russia since we’ll before the Ukraine situation. (CFE Nordstrom 2, yes let’s make ourselves cripplingly dependent on Russian energy imports, don’t see how that could back fire, or Angela Merkel’s little hissy fit that we were listening in on German-Russian talks).

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/sbg1/status/1497231076011487233

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

Seems like telling all your neighbors you will invade them if they don’t have a nuclear power to protect them is a bit counter productive that goal.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

If Putin dares to do anything against Finland, NATO will attack nonetheless, in my view. Finland is a EU member, thus, if Russia attacks Finland, it's invading the EU and there's a cooperation treaty between NATO and the EU, so a military response to it would most likely happen.

I don't see EU moving without the U.S. France and Germany literally admitted in the last 48 hours their militaries are horrifically unprepared for an intense conflict.

If I'm Ukraine, and I see NATO come to the defense of Finland when they wouldn't come to the defense of me, I'm pissed.

I don't see Russia going into Finland, but a lot of people didn't see Russia going into Ukraine either (in spite of forces being stationed on the border for 3 months).

The chances of this going hot were underestimated precisely because people didn't like the thought of war to begin with. They wanted to comfortably retreat to "oh, this is mostly a bluff" or some other explanation besides "yes, Putin intends to send his troops into Ukraine".
It is probably most often the case the risk of hot conflict is overestimated; this is one of the times when the opposite is true.

To dumb down this whole conflict it's:

[Russia put troops all around Ukrainian border]
Ukraine: "What are you doing?"
Russia: "Give us these security guarantees. You're not living up to Minsk."
Ukraine: "No! West, step in here, we're going to do nothing for the next 3 months except berate you on how you're not properly supporting us."
Russia: "Okay. Give us these security guarantees on Ukraine."
West: "That's too much. We will not do it. Come back when you're being realistic."
Russia: "We have forces situated all around Ukraine."
West: "You're not going to invade. You're bluffing."
[Russia invades]
West: "What the hell?!?"

JFC, this is the exact opposite of what happened

Russian proxies never implemented Minsk protocols and Ukraine did as much as they could with uniformed Russian troops regularly shooting at them, the ‘security guarantees’ amounted to completely disarming Ukraine so that Russia could invade it, the ‘security guarantees’ they asked for from the West was the complete abandonment of Eastern Europe. And the regularly monitored and reported on troop movements and predicted the Russian invasion to the date. The only people that thought they were bluffing were the Germans for some damn reason.

Don’t your desire to be clever cloud your judgement, that way lies Tucker Carlson.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

This is big:

https://twitter.com/alexrossmusic/status/1497242538415046657

This strikes me as inappropriate BRTD-esque "all Russians are evil" tomfoolery.

From Wikipedia

During the 2008 South Ossetia war, Gergiev, who is of partial Ossetian heritage himself, accused the Georgian government of massacring ethnic Ossetians, triggering the conflict with Russia.[15] He came to Tskhinvali and conducted a concert near the ruined building of the South Ossetian Parliament as tribute to the victims of the war.[16]

Gergiev has been, according to Alex Ross in The New Yorker, "a prominent supporter of the current Russian regime". In 2012, in a television ad for Putin's third Presidential campaign, he said, "One needs to be able to hold oneself presidentially, so that people reckon with the country. I don't know if it's fear? Respect? Reckoning."[17]


In March 2014 he joined a host of other Russian arts and cultural figures in signing an open letter of support for Russia's position regarding Ukraine and the Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation. The letter was posted on the website of Russia's culture ministry on 12 March 2014. In the letter signatories stated that they "firmly declare our support for the position of the president of the Russian Federation" in the region.[23][24]

However, in September 2015, as he became chief conductor of the Munich Philharmonic, Gergiev said that he did not really sign the letter to Putin, but only had a phone conversation about it with Vladimir Medinsky.[25] The New York Times reported that Russian artists may have been pushed by the Russian government to endorse the annexation of Crimea. The article specifically mentioned Gergiev, who faced protests in New York City while performing.[26] After Ukrainian public outcry, the Ukrainian Ministry of Culture blacklisted Gergiev from performing in Ukraine.[26][27][28]

In light of the outcry over Putin waging war on Ukraine in February 2022, and Gergiev's support of Putin, Gergiev was removed from leading the Vienna Philharmonic in a five-concert US tour that was to start at Carnegie Hall the following evening.[29][30]

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

What's the latest credible information on the situation in Kyiv?

Very little in the way of credible on the ground reporting all around. The best I can piece together is Russian troops are to the north and east and long range range bombardment has started. So far, the Ukrainians managed to fend off Russian assaults on the airfield to the west, preventing a complete encirclement as of yet.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1497316041663332363
Zelensky's former press secretary, so this is highly credible.

There is incentive for both sides to hold talks: Russia has done far worse than most observers had expected, and in the long run Ukraine's army will not be able to hold off Russia's army.

Very good news to hear.
May peace prevail in Ukraine.

If Russia really agreed to these peace talks because their army has fumbled the ball in Ukraine let's hope that this also means that Putin doesn't try to squeeze them dry in negotiations (recognition of Crimea as Russian territory and the entire Donbas as independent, putting into writing that Ukraine won't seek NATO membership etc.). Because if he does we either could be back to square one rather quickly because Ukraine then pulls out of the talks or if Ukraine agrees to those terms Putin will come out of the whole thing victorious after all.

It might be possible a compromise is put in place where the entire Donbass is reintegrated with Ukraine in return for the country becoming neutral a la Austria in the Cold War? (If Putin has enough of a hand, then add in Crimea being Russian being recognized by the international community, but this would be much more unlikely)

Ukraine would probably fare best if it isn't political football, and all this, taken together, would shore up both Putin and Zelensky, allowing both to claim victory. It would also help NATO as they have to expend less money on redeployments.

See the thing is Russia doesn’t want a neutral Ukraine. They could have had that easily without all this.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

If I'm Zelenskyy I do not trust Putin for these "talks".

One can be hopeful, maybe this really is going allot worse than Putin thought and he wants to walk back, but I’m assuming this meeting is Russia demanding terms of surrender.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1497267568461205509
Is Germany the only holdout now?

Lindner said Germany is open to it today

Hm, well he said open to it if all EU countries agree which is a quite convenient bar to set (which even if Italy changes mind, still leaves many aside Germany opposed like Austria, Hungary Bulgaria, I believe NL too was mentioned by evening news yesterday but not 100% sure). This evening he said also said first the implications have to be studied (which EU commission is currently doing) , especially regarding if Russia will still deliver gas as then it will be very hard for them to get paid. Although he also said that simply asking the question of the consequences does not mean exclusion of the option per se, even if the consequences are bad.

Also the Foreign Minister today (who is actually the most Russia-sceptical minister) said that she is sceptical because it makes it very difficult to finance humanitarian projects, from experience when it was done with Iran. I actually think this is pretty pathetic reasoning, because it seems pretty clear that we are going to have to look again at the full bandwidth of our relationship with Russia, including as already demonstrated culture/sport and humanitarian issues are all touched. If the economic price is too high, then be honest.

German FM doubles down on opposition to SWIFT exclusion In Interview tonight:
https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/video/video-993977.html

- "The sharpest sword isn't always the smartest"
- too much Collateral Damage, would hit civil society too much, and for instance ordinary Russians in Germany who need to send payments to relatives
- "as the government we also have a responsibility to ensure that the Germans can heat and have electricity"

It can change, but considering she is so adamant (unlike her always sceptical attitude to NS2, which shone through even when she was forced to defend it), I really can't see it happening right now.

What’s German for ‘America First’?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1497316041663332363
Zelensky's former press secretary, so this is highly credible.

There is incentive for both sides to hold talks: Russia has done far worse than most observers had expected, and in the long run Ukraine's army will not be able to hold off Russia's army.

Very good news to hear.
May peace prevail in Ukraine.

If Russia really agreed to these peace talks because their army has fumbled the ball in Ukraine let's hope that this also means that Putin doesn't try to squeeze them dry in negotiations (recognition of Crimea as Russian territory and the entire Donbas as independent, putting into writing that Ukraine won't seek NATO membership etc.). Because if he does we either could be back to square one rather quickly because Ukraine then pulls out of the talks or if Ukraine agrees to those terms Putin will come out of the whole thing victorious after all.

It might be possible a compromise is put in place where the entire Donbass is reintegrated with Ukraine in return for the country becoming neutral a la Austria in the Cold War? (If Putin has enough of a hand, then add in Crimea being Russian being recognized by the international community, but this would be much more unlikely)

Ukraine would probably fare best if it isn't political football, and all this, taken together, would shore up both Putin and Zelensky, allowing both to claim victory. It would also help NATO as they have to expend less money on redeployments.

See the thing is Russia doesn’t want a neutral Ukraine. They could have had that easily without all this.

Ukraine did not even implement the Minsk agreements, which they agreed to, and started making preparations for NATO membership?

On 14 September 2020, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky approved Ukraine's new National Security Strategy, "which provides for the development of the distinctive partnership with NATO with the aim of membership in NATO."

If it had implemented Minsk, renounced Crimea & embraced constitutional neutrality, we would not be here now.

Was that realistic? No, these are very significant concessions and Ukraine did not think Putin would go through with an all out invasion.

Now, it is obvious they are in a worse position, and such a compromise is better than having Grozny level destruction in a city of 3 Million, which might actually happen if they keep up resistance while refusing to negotiate.

Ultimately, it is the only way I see for them to prosper long term without looking over their shoulder, or in this case, border.

All the Western Powers are eager to argue for Ukraine in negotiations and demand better conditions, but when sh**t actually hit the fan, it doesnt seem anyone was actually there to back it up.

Not today Sergei.

Minsk Protocols were negotiated with a gun to Ukraine’s head, were attempted by the Ukraine, and never happened because they were predicated upon a ceasefire, which Russian proxies immediately broke, and the withdrawal of Russian weapons and fighters from Ukraine, neither of which happened. Minsk 1 was in June of 2014, by that October Russian proxies had launched an offensive operation to take all of Donetsk. Minsk II, same story, Russians agree to ceasefire in exchange for essentially all their demands (autonomy, immunity for Russian backed terrorists, etc.), immediately begin attacking Ukrainian army positions . And of course, these ceasefires are with an extremist insurgency that is created and sustained with Russian support. ‘Going back to Minsk’ means you stop shooting back while Russia’s unofficial army rolls over you.

Yes, Ukraine has attempted to move towards NATO membership, because Russia won’t stop military intervention in the Ukraine, trying to be a neutral point between Russia and the West got Yushchenko a Russian-backed successor and a civil war, trying just to integrate with Europe got Poroshenko an Crimean annexation and a Russian army by another name insurgency. Russia won’t leave Ukraine alone and Minsk and their complete disregard of every alleged ceasefire is a pretty stark example that Russia will not respect any neutrality agreement on Ukraine’s part. They have moved towards NATO membership because they need a redline beyond which Putin’s stormtroopers can not cross, because a neutral Ukraine is a Ukraine subject to continuous and arbitrary Russian military intervention.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1497316041663332363
Zelensky's former press secretary, so this is highly credible.

There is incentive for both sides to hold talks: Russia has done far worse than most observers had expected, and in the long run Ukraine's army will not be able to hold off Russia's army.

Very good news to hear.
May peace prevail in Ukraine.

If Russia really agreed to these peace talks because their army has fumbled the ball in Ukraine let's hope that this also means that Putin doesn't try to squeeze them dry in negotiations (recognition of Crimea as Russian territory and the entire Donbas as independent, putting into writing that Ukraine won't seek NATO membership etc.). Because if he does we either could be back to square one rather quickly because Ukraine then pulls out of the talks or if Ukraine agrees to those terms Putin will come out of the whole thing victorious after all.

It might be possible a compromise is put in place where the entire Donbass is reintegrated with Ukraine in return for the country becoming neutral a la Austria in the Cold War? (If Putin has enough of a hand, then add in Crimea being Russian being recognized by the international community, but this would be much more unlikely)

Ukraine would probably fare best if it isn't political football, and all this, taken together, would shore up both Putin and Zelensky, allowing both to claim victory. It would also help NATO as they have to expend less money on redeployments.

See the thing is Russia doesn’t want a neutral Ukraine. They could have had that easily without all this.

Ukraine did not even implement the Minsk agreements, which they agreed to, and started making preparations for NATO membership?

On 14 September 2020, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky approved Ukraine's new National Security Strategy, "which provides for the development of the distinctive partnership with NATO with the aim of membership in NATO."

If it had implemented Minsk, renounced Crimea & embraced constitutional neutrality, we would not be here now.

Was that realistic? No, these are very significant concessions and Ukraine did not think Putin would go through with an all out invasion.

Now, it is obvious they are in a worse position, and such a compromise is better than having Grozny level destruction in a city of 3 Million, which might actually happen if they keep up resistance while refusing to negotiate.

Ultimately, it is the only way I see for them to prosper long term without looking over their shoulder, or in this case, border.

All the Western Powers are eager to argue for Ukraine in negotiations and demand better conditions, but when sh**t actually hit the fan, it doesnt seem anyone was actually there to back it up.

Not today Sergei.

Minsk Protocols were negotiated with a gun to Ukraine’s head, were attempted by the Ukraine, and never happened because they were predicated upon a ceasefire, which Russian proxies immediately broke, and the withdrawal of Russian weapons and fighters from Ukraine, neither of which happened. Minsk 1 was in June of 2014, by that October Russian proxies had launched an offensive operation to take all of Donetsk. Minsk II, same story, Russians agree to ceasefire in exchange for essentially all their demands (autonomy, immunity for Russian backed terrorists, etc.), immediately begin attacking Ukrainian army positions . And of course, these ceasefires are with an extremist insurgency that is created and sustained with Russian support. ‘Going back to Minsk’ means you stop shooting back while Russia’s unofficial army rolls over you.

Yes, Ukraine has attempted to move towards NATO membership, because Russia won’t stop military intervention in the Ukraine, trying to be a neutral point between Russia and the West got Yushchenko a Russian-backed successor and a civil war, trying just to integrate with Europe got Poroshenko an Crimean annexation and a Russian army by another name insurgency. Russia won’t leave Ukraine alone and Minsk and their complete disregard of every alleged ceasefire is a pretty stark example that Russia will not respect any neutrality agreement on Ukraine’s part. They have moved towards NATO membership because they need a redline beyond which Putin’s stormtroopers can not cross, because a neutral Ukraine is a Ukraine subject to continuous and arbitrary Russian military intervention.

How about you go through my post history on this topic first, and then decide if I am a "Sergei", sound good?

Idk how you can still claim that them proclaiming "Nato ambitions" was not a mistake when Kyiv is under siege, 48 hours after the invasion started, especially when all they seem to be getting from those ambitions is prayers and some cash/equipment.

I am not claiming Minsk 2.0 was fair, or that them giving up Crimea would be fair, or that the separatist movements are justified or legal. I simply think it is a better alternative to having Kyiv leveled by a madman. But sure, "Sergei" it is.

How about not sh**tting out Russian talking points about how the big bad Ukrainians just wouldn’t work with them then?

Russia made it’s decision to invade months if not years ago regardless of any Ukrainian action, any rapprochement has been met with Russian terrorists shooting at them. Not posture short of agreeing to Russian annexation would have prevented this outcome.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Shockingly according to a new Poll Voters think Putin would not have invaded Ukraine if Trump was President
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1497340903643566091

I dislike Trump as much as any other Democrat, I agree with the 62%. Putin generally avoided provoking the US during the Trump administration. Trump espoused things Putin wanted (leaving NATO, reducing US troop numbers in Europe, etc.) and openly mentioned his admiration of Putin. If Putin invaded Ukraine, he'd lose any hope of weakening NATO (not to mention actively give NATO countries reason to support the organization) and give up the best relationship with a US President he's ever had. Invasion under a Trump administration makes no sense for Putin.

Yes, if only we had a Putin lickspittle in the White House, Putin would never have invaded Ukraine. I don’t know why you think it would damage his relationship with Trump when Trump is saying how smart and strong Putin is for invading Ukraine or why you think an even further damaged NATO wouldn’t embolden him.

I’m not sure how this is much better than Sergei’s ‘if only the Ukrainians had personally blow Putin this would all go away’ hot take.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

What progress are the Russian troops making with their "denazification" efforts btw??


https://twitter.com/Ukrainerabbi/status/1497292070276550656

Denazify Ukraine by murdering it’s Jewish president was not in my bingo card.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

For whom it may interest, German magazine Der Spiegel has a rather lengthy English-language article on the prospective impact of Ukraine on German politics, titled "The Calamitous Errors of Germany's Russia Policy":

https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/a-military-and-political-disaster-the-calamitous-errors-of-germany-s-russia-policy-a-c8b9818e-4bc2-4eb2-ac55-39e5790b29b2

One SPD politician has essentially described current events as Europe's 9/11. The German government is planning to talk next week about an increase of its defense budget. And it seems certain that we'll be getting a whole lot of LNG terminals in the years to come.

If Der Spiegel is moving on this, can we hope that German public opinion is finally turning on Russia?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497128097140858901
Unconfirmed, but Ukraine may have hit a Russian airfield/staging area with a cruise missile.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

For whom it may interest, German magazine Der Spiegel has a rather lengthy English-language article on the prospective impact of Ukraine on German politics, titled "The Calamitous Errors of Germany's Russia Policy":

https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/a-military-and-political-disaster-the-calamitous-errors-of-germany-s-russia-policy-a-c8b9818e-4bc2-4eb2-ac55-39e5790b29b2

One SPD politician has essentially described current events as Europe's 9/11. The German government is planning to talk next week about an increase of its defense budget. And it seems certain that we'll be getting a whole lot of LNG terminals in the years to come.

A statistic that shocked me was that the Bundeswehr had more than 4,700 tanks in 1989 and today there are less than 300 in inventory!

FWIW, the current thinking is that tanks aren’t really survivable in a peer-peer conflict because of the large scale presence of manpads and long range precision munitions. The USMC is also ditching their armored divisions.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I thought it was twitter propaganda but wow this seems to be going into Winter war 2.0 which would be impressive considering Ukraines terrain is much worse to defend than Finland.

Genuinely asking, can Ukraine actually win this thing? Or are they just gonna make sh*t suck for the VDV while still not being able to successfully hold back all of the mechanized battalions?

Honestly, I think winning looks like the Ukrainian army trades causalities favorably and remains an effective fighting force that seamlessly transitions into a large scale armed resistance.

But praying for miracles doesn’t hurt.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

While people here are posting memes and Twitter posts about how the glorious Ukrainian army is winning everything and the Russians are burning in their tanks, here's a notice from the Ukrainian Interior Ministry relayed by CNN:

The Ukrainian Interior Ministry has warned civilians in the capital Kyiv that fighting is taking place on the streets.

In a Facebook post Saturday, the ministry said:

    "Active fighting is taking place on the streets of our city. Please stay calm and be as careful as possible!
    If you're in the shelter, don't leave it now.
    If you are at home -- do not go close to the windows, do not go to the balconies. Hide indoors, for example in the bathroom, and cover yourself with something that will prevent injury from bullet fragments.
    If you hear sirens ("Air Alarm" signal) -- go immediately to the nearest shelter!"

So there is street fighting in the capital on the third day of the war. This is what Ukraine winning looks like? Someone compared this to the Winter War earlier, this is not even close to the Winter War.

Kiev was supposed to fall by now, Russians have been forced to bypass major cities, the breakthrough columns are getting bogged down in sieges.

Winning when you are faced with overwhelming numbers means slowing things down, trading casualties favorably, and maintaining a functional army in field that can keep resisting after the inevitable happens. Ukraine is doing that by most estimations.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497448650003423235?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...
Out of a force of 190,000, that’s circa 2% attrition in 48 hours. That’s a staggering amount if accurate.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Russians claim that they halted their operations later yesterday due to the prospect of talks with Ukraine.  It seems that Ukraine has since rejected these talks, as per the Russians, so now Putin has already ordered a resumption of the offensive.

Was there a chance to stall the Russians long enough to get resituated? Or was Putin lying as a cover that he was caught with his pants down and needed time to pull them up?

Given the fuel shortages we are hearing about, I’m guessing it was stall tactic because the logistics hadn’t actually been sorted.