Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-is-racing-to-arm-its-russian-borders-can-it-find-the-weapons-eastern-edge-military-leaders-james-j-townsend-jr-us-one-billion-citizens-army-europe

"NATO is racing to arm its Russian borders. Can it find the weapons?"

Seems like this buildup will require a lot of upfront capital.

But the process could get tricky. Why? Because moving so quickly, even given a month, requires lots of people, equipment and training — and lots of money.

And to find that money will run counter to the need to recapitalize the financial system.  The only way out to do both will be imposing more inflation tax on the population of the collective West.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1637428886437756934
https://mobile.twitter.com/hdevreij/status/1637483713314398209
I seriously hope that if it does come to pass that Ukraine actually wins the battle of Bakmut that they didn’t sacrifice too much

[Woody]

Putin visiting Mariupol, inspecting the reconstruction:
[snip]

How is Ukrainian media taking all this?

Don't know. Malding probably.

This is the first time I believe Putin has visited his newly acquired territories, with the exception of Crimea of course.

[pppolitics]

Putin visiting Mariupol, inspecting the reconstruction:
[snip]

How is Ukrainian media taking all this?

Don't know. Malding probably.

This is the first time I believe Putin has visited his newly acquired territories, with the exception of Crimea of course.

SirWoodbury

What is on Россия-1 (Russia-1) right now?

[Chief Justice windjammer]

Are you being optimistic about the Ukraine counteroffensive?

Honestly I am. I have the feeling the Ukrainians & the Americans are preparing something great

[CumbrianLefty]

What is "malding"?

[Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil]

What is "malding"?

Online slang. This is what its core meaning is.

[Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil]

Are you being optimistic about the Ukraine counteroffensive?

Honestly I am. I have the feeling the Ukrainians & the Americans are preparing something great

Personally, I'm kind of uncertain if I should feel optimistic or pessimistic. I do strongly, strongly expect Russia to eventually take Bakhmut, for at least some time. I hope I'm wrong.

[jaichind]

https://www.rmf24.pl/raporty/raport-wojna-z-rosja/news-polski-ambasador-wywolal-burze-padly-slowa-o-wojnie-z-rosja,nId,6664830#crp_state=1

Polish ambassader to France says that if Ukraine loses the war then Poland will enter the conflict

[DavidB.]

Putin visiting Mariupol, inspecting the reconstruction:
https://twitter.com/Trollstoy88/status/1637365838314364929

You're now posting stuff by Nazi accounts I see?

[CanadianDemocrat]

Are you being optimistic about the Ukraine counteroffensive?

Honestly I am. I have the feeling the Ukrainians & the Americans are preparing something great

6 months ago I was worried about the war being a perpetual stalemate, with the Ukrainians holding the Russians back, but not able to launch counteroffensives. Then came the Ukrainian counteroffensives that liberated Kherson and Kharkiv. I have stopped underestimating the Ukrainian army and overestimating the Russian army.

The Russians have only advanced 2.5 miles a month in the Bakhmut area, while they lost Kherson and Kharkiv.  

[Baerbock 2025]

Update from previous post: Ukrainian commander of the 46th Airmobile Brigade was demoted after he talked to Washington Post about how grim the situation really is. Ukrainian war journalist, Yuri Butusov, even defended him for this. The now former commander "Kupol" handed a resignation letter after being demoted.

Please Zelensky stans, defend this:


https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/16/7393733/

Please Putin stans, defend this:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1634622006325911553

[Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil]

Knowing what we know at the moment, what is the likelihood that Mariupol is in Russian hands six months from now?

[Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.rmf24.pl/raporty/raport-wojna-z-rosja/news-polski-ambasador-wywolal-burze-padly-slowa-o-wojnie-z-rosja,nId,6664830#crp_state=1

Polish ambassader to France says that if Ukraine loses the war then Poland will enter the conflict

If Poland enters the conflict, does this entail them getting NATO protection?

[Dereich]

https://www.rmf24.pl/raporty/raport-wojna-z-rosja/news-polski-ambasador-wywolal-burze-padly-slowa-o-wojnie-z-rosja,nId,6664830#crp_state=1

Polish ambassader to France says that if Ukraine loses the war then Poland will enter the conflict

If Poland enters the conflict, does this entail them getting NATO protection?

Article 5

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Poland going to war would not constitute an armed attack requiring self defense. There would be no treaty obligations against it. They could call them all to consultation if they felt their "territorial integrity, political independence or security" were threatened, but that's it. I'm sure it would be understood that NATO would not stand by if the Russians tried to conquer Poland, but it wouldn't be out of treaty obligations.

[Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.rmf24.pl/raporty/raport-wojna-z-rosja/news-polski-ambasador-wywolal-burze-padly-slowa-o-wojnie-z-rosja,nId,6664830#crp_state=1

Polish ambassader to France says that if Ukraine loses the war then Poland will enter the conflict

If Poland enters the conflict, does this entail them getting NATO protection?

Article 5

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Poland going to war would not constitute an armed attack requiring self defense. There would be no treaty obligations against it. They could call them all to consultation if they felt their "territorial integrity, political independence or security" were threatened, but that's it. I'm sure it would be understood that NATO would not stand by if the Russians tried to conquer Poland, but it wouldn't be out of treaty obligations.

Ah. That's what I suspected.

[BG-NY]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1637659241078046720?s=46

[jaichind]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/czech-president-believes-ukraine-one-012629476.html

"Czech President believes Ukraine has one attempt to carry out major counteroffensive"

"The window of opportunity is open this year. After next winter, it will be extremely difficult to maintain the current level of assistance," Pavel was quoted. "War fatigue is not only the exhaustion of human resources and equipment, the destruction of infrastructure in Ukraine, but also fatigue in the countries that provide aid."

[Logical]

Sneaking around someone's apartment at 2 am and slinking out before the sun rises does not inspire confidence, doesn't it?

[Chief Justice windjammer]

Are you being optimistic about the Ukraine counteroffensive?

Honestly I am. I have the feeling the Ukrainians & the Americans are preparing something great

6 months ago I was worried about the war being a perpetual stalemate, with the Ukrainians holding the Russians back, but not able to launch counteroffensives. Then came the Ukrainian counteroffensives that liberated Kherson and Kharkiv. I have stopped underestimating the Ukrainian army and overestimating the Russian army.

The Russians have only advanced 2.5 miles a month in the Bakhmut area, while they lost Kherson and Kharkiv.  

My reasoning is that the Russians are still underperforming expectations so they are still being overestimated. Like they were supposed to capture Bakhmut for a few months now and it appears they are still far away from achieving this.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/francisjfarrell/status/1637786376232923136
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1637791244809109504
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1637721434561601539

[Stranger in a strange land]

Putin visiting Mariupol, inspecting the reconstruction:
[snip]

How is Ukrainian media taking all this?

Don't know. Malding probably.

This is the first time I believe Putin has visited his newly acquired territories, with the exception of Crimea of course.

SirWoodbury

What is on Россия-1 (Russia-1) right now?

The Brave and Glorious Leader is visiting the liberated territories! The fact that he's making his first visit to the Former Ukrainian Territories in the middle of the night with heavy security and not going anywhere near the front line clearly shows everything is going to plan, and the Special Military Operation will very soon reach a victorious conclusion!!!

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/JosepBorrellF/status/1637835240327487488

New $350 million PDA assistance for Ukraine, from the US:

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3334472/dod-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1637854075386580996
It looks like Ukraine is making moves to start self producing western style weapons probably as a back up if the war does indeed drag on and western aid starts to diminish

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://mobile.twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1637854075386580996
It looks like Ukraine is making moves to start self producing western style weapons probably as a back up if the war does indeed drag on and western aid starts to diminish

The infamous Iranian-made Shahed drone is cobbled together from consumer electronics and very crude explosives, engines, and spare parts. No reasons Ukraine couldn't do the same to strike back against Russia.