Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread
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Author Topic: Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread  (Read 875555 times)
Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #20300 on: March 19, 2023, 02:11:52 AM »

This meme is funny but inaccurate.
I actually think America Good and I care about protecting American power and global stability through whatever means are necessary.
But you would know that by now if you actually read my posts earnestly, in a fair spirit of inquiry.
I'm happy enough that we have an administration that basically follows my school of thought, where loose cannons and mindless hawks aren't calling the shots. My school of thought is mostly winning in real life, which matters more than the feelings of people on a singular internet forum.
That you think that I think "America bad" shows how little you actually know about my attitudes, personally. You are just assuming I share the same set of ideas for how government ought to work as you. I don't. Please get that in your head.

I'm not referring to America, I'm referring to Russia/Ukraine.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #20301 on: March 19, 2023, 02:32:37 AM »

This meme is funny but inaccurate.
I actually think America Good and I care about protecting American power and global stability through whatever means are necessary.
But you would know that by now if you actually read my posts earnestly, in a fair spirit of inquiry.
I'm happy enough that we have an administration that basically follows my school of thought, where loose cannons and mindless hawks aren't calling the shots. My school of thought is mostly winning in real life, which matters more than the feelings of people on a singular internet forum.
That you think that I think "America bad" shows how little you actually know about my attitudes, personally. You are just assuming I share the same set of ideas for how government ought to work as you. I don't. Please get that in your head.

I'm not referring to America, I'm referring to Russia/Ukraine.
Hmm. Still, inaccurate. Personally, I don't think I could call either Russia or Ukraine bad, looking at them. Russia is an important stabilizer and counterweight in most of the post-Soviet sphere overall (of course, not so in Ukraine). And a big chunk of Ukraine bad is often based off nonsensical talking points of it being "Nazi" or something. Ukraine's government is deeply dysfunctional in many areas and the country is a basketcase, but that does not make it bad.

That's nonsense. Neither Russia nor Ukraine are remotely Nazi states, regardless of what either side's propaganda claims, though they by now both share the revisionism of Nazi Germany (revisionism here meaning desire to revise existing borders). Ukraine wants effectively Russian Crimea (and I figure that if Ukraine gets it back - something I favor in the abstract - it might have to be put on a leash by outside actors in how it acts there), and Russia's qualifications for this defy a need for mere explanation.

Of course, Russia doesn't have to be "broadly bad" or orientalized (which it often is in the West) for one to justify punishing it for this invasion, and that is precisely my position. This sort of stuff is compartmentalized and in the "Ukraine compartment" Russia has shown it must be punished for sake of global stability (the post-Soviet sphere is not the globe overall), regardless of what it does more broadly. We can't let people have too many ideas.

In Ukraine and in Europe more generally, Russia is our clear opponent. In keeping the peace in places like Armenia vs Azerbaijan, on the other hand, or in acting in areas of common interest (such as getting an Iran nuclear deal), we can collaborate. I favor working with any and all countries as needed if that is a net good for US interests. Sadly, careful managerialism has been disrupted by the Trump administration and our credibility was hit as a result.
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Woody
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« Reply #20302 on: March 19, 2023, 04:16:42 AM »

Putin visiting Mariupol, inspecting the reconstruction:





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pppolitics
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« Reply #20303 on: March 19, 2023, 05:15:29 AM »

Defiant Putin makes ‘working visit’ to occupied Mariupol, symbol of Ukrainian resistance

Quote
Vladimir Putin has made a “working visit” to Russian-occupied Mariupol, in an apparently defiant move reported just days after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for him.

Putin was flown into Mariupol by helicopter and toured districts around the city in a car, according to Russian state news agency RIA Novosti.

It said the Russian leader had stopped to speak to residents in the city’s Nevsky neighborhood and claimed he was invited into a resident’s home. It did not make clear when the visit took place.

News of the visit comes after the ICC issued arrest warrants on Friday for Putin and Russian official Maria Lvova-Belova for an alleged scheme to deport Ukrainian children to Russia.

The visit is likely to be seen as particularly provocative to Ukrainians as Mariupol was long a symbol of resistance that has witnessed some of the most intense fighting since Russia launched its invasion last year.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/19/europe/putin-mariupol-visit-icc-intl-hnk/index.html

Putin doesn't talk to normal people.

Any 'encounter' that he has with the public is staged.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #20304 on: March 19, 2023, 05:30:04 AM »

Putin visiting Mariupol, inspecting the reconstruction:
[snip]
How is Ukrainian media taking all this?
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jaichind
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« Reply #20305 on: March 19, 2023, 06:58:55 AM »

Putin visiting Mariupol, inspecting the reconstruction:
[snip]
How is Ukrainian media taking all this?

Most likely

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jaichind
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« Reply #20306 on: March 19, 2023, 07:00:14 AM »

Putin drives himself in Mariupol.  I am impressed.
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Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #20307 on: March 19, 2023, 08:16:00 AM »


There definitely seems to be a renewed optimism around Ukraine’s chances of holding Bakmut
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #20308 on: March 19, 2023, 08:21:26 AM »


There definitely seems to be a renewed optimism around Ukraine’s chances of holding Bakmut
I imagine the time of the year must have some impact on Ukrainian optimism here, considering that early spring/late winter seems to be when the ground is particularly muddy?
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #20309 on: March 19, 2023, 08:58:01 AM »

What’s the most realistic (as in likelihood of happening) path to this conflict ending with minimal future bloodshed?

Korean style ceasefire

Arguably the most important difference between the previous ceasefire in Ukraine and the Korean-style ceasefire is the presence of foreign troops on both sides. Hard to see Western governments suddenly becoming willing to deploy troops in Ukraine given their reluctance w.r.t. weaker security guarantees.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #20310 on: March 19, 2023, 09:03:56 AM »


There definitely seems to be a renewed optimism around Ukraine’s chances of holding Bakmut
I imagine the time of the year must have some impact on Ukrainian optimism here, considering that early spring/late winter seems to be when the ground is particularly muddy?
I don’t think that means much in Bakmut as Russia seems to be more reliant on artillery and infantry attacks than using tanks or mechanized vehicles. It seems the renewed optimism from Western Intelligence and the ISW is that Ukraine’s favorable Kia ratios along with Russia’s wave tactics are catching up and that Russia is on the verge of exhausting its forces there before they can complete an encirclement
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jaichind
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« Reply #20311 on: March 19, 2023, 09:58:42 AM »

The Credit Suisse rescue talks are still ongoing.  But one thing is clear.  Credit Suisse is basically bankrupt and if there is no deal there will be a big blowup when the markets open.  One funny thing about Credit Suisse's implosion is that the major economy most shielded from the fallout would be Russia thanks to the financial sanctions imposed last year. Russia now has almost zero exposure to Credit Suisse.  The various financial sanctions on Russia ended up being a de facto firewall to protect Russia from Credit Suisse's fallout.

To be fair Russia will not completely escape.  A Credit Suisse implosion will clearly lead to a collective West economic recession which will drive down raw material prices to the detriment of Russia.  In such a scenario Russia will need for PRC and India demand to hold up to minimize damage.
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jaichind
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« Reply #20312 on: March 19, 2023, 10:29:55 AM »

https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-is-racing-to-arm-its-russian-borders-can-it-find-the-weapons-eastern-edge-military-leaders-james-j-townsend-jr-us-one-billion-citizens-army-europe

"NATO is racing to arm its Russian borders. Can it find the weapons?"

Seems like this buildup will require a lot of upfront capital.

Quote
But the process could get tricky. Why? Because moving so quickly, even given a month, requires lots of people, equipment and training — and lots of money.

And to find that money will run counter to the need to recapitalize the financial system.  The only way out to do both will be imposing more inflation tax on the population of the collective West.
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Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #20313 on: March 19, 2023, 11:23:07 AM »



I seriously hope that if it does come to pass that Ukraine actually wins the battle of Bakmut that they didn’t sacrifice too much
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Woody
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« Reply #20314 on: March 19, 2023, 12:52:56 PM »

Putin visiting Mariupol, inspecting the reconstruction:
[snip]
How is Ukrainian media taking all this?
Don't know. Malding probably.

This is the first time I believe Putin has visited his newly acquired territories, with the exception of Crimea of course.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #20315 on: March 19, 2023, 01:06:14 PM »
« Edited: March 19, 2023, 02:32:58 PM by pppolitics »

Putin visiting Mariupol, inspecting the reconstruction:
[snip]
How is Ukrainian media taking all this?
Don't know. Malding probably.

This is the first time I believe Putin has visited his newly acquired territories, with the exception of Crimea of course.

SirWoodbury

What is on Россия-1 (Russia-1) right now?
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windjammer
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« Reply #20316 on: March 19, 2023, 02:56:57 PM »

Are you being optimistic about the Ukraine counteroffensive?

Honestly I am. I have the feeling the Ukrainians & the Americans are preparing something great
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #20317 on: March 19, 2023, 03:24:29 PM »

What is "malding"?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #20318 on: March 19, 2023, 04:02:49 PM »

Online slang. This is what its core meaning is.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #20319 on: March 19, 2023, 04:11:29 PM »

Are you being optimistic about the Ukraine counteroffensive?

Honestly I am. I have the feeling the Ukrainians & the Americans are preparing something great
Personally, I'm kind of uncertain if I should feel optimistic or pessimistic. I do strongly, strongly expect Russia to eventually take Bakhmut, for at least some time. I hope I'm wrong.
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jaichind
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« Reply #20320 on: March 19, 2023, 04:46:59 PM »

https://www.rmf24.pl/raporty/raport-wojna-z-rosja/news-polski-ambasador-wywolal-burze-padly-slowa-o-wojnie-z-rosja,nId,6664830#crp_state=1

Polish ambassader to France says that if Ukraine loses the war then Poland will enter the conflict
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DavidB.
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« Reply #20321 on: March 19, 2023, 05:42:56 PM »

Putin visiting Mariupol, inspecting the reconstruction:

You're now posting stuff by Nazi accounts I see?
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CanadianDemocrat
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« Reply #20322 on: March 19, 2023, 08:51:10 PM »
« Edited: March 19, 2023, 08:57:19 PM by CanadianDemocrat »

Are you being optimistic about the Ukraine counteroffensive?

Honestly I am. I have the feeling the Ukrainians & the Americans are preparing something great

6 months ago I was worried about the war being a perpetual stalemate, with the Ukrainians holding the Russians back, but not able to launch counteroffensives. Then came the Ukrainian counteroffensives that liberated Kherson and Kharkiv. I have stopped underestimating the Ukrainian army and overestimating the Russian army.

The Russians have only advanced 2.5 miles a month in the Bakhmut area, while they lost Kherson and Kharkiv.  
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #20323 on: March 19, 2023, 09:07:16 PM »

Update from previous post: Ukrainian commander of the 46th Airmobile Brigade was demoted after he talked to Washington Post about how grim the situation really is. Ukrainian war journalist, Yuri Butusov, even defended him for this. The now former commander "Kupol" handed a resignation letter after being demoted.

Please Zelensky stans, defend this:


https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/16/7393733/


Please Putin stans, defend this:

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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #20324 on: March 19, 2023, 09:16:50 PM »

Knowing what we know at the moment, what is the likelihood that Mariupol is in Russian hands six months from now?
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