Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://censor.net/en/news/3406331/government_of_slovakia_approved_transfer_of_13_mig29_fighters_to_ukraine_prime_minister_heger

"Government of Slovakia approved transfer of 13 MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine, - Prime Minister, Heger"

Excellent deal for Slovakia, as they get a nice lump sump from the US and EU twice the value of the jets themselves.
https://twitter.com/ArkturusRX/status/1636661660541698048

At about $70 million per jet, they're getting more than twice the value of a new MiG-29 of the latest Russian model and more than the value of a new F-16.

When following the MiG-29 saga earlier in the war, I recall stories involving used, demilitarised MiG-29s being sold for ~$5-10 million.

The Slovakian jets are not demilitarised, but they are Soviet export models with a make slightly older than Ukraine's and a few domestic/NATO upgrades. However, IIRC, they do half their maximum service life left (which is better than some of the jets Ukraine must be flying).

Even when you consider that Ukraine is probably getting the rest of their plane parts, any remaining MiG-29-exclusive munitions, and at least 1 battery (probably no more than 5 batteries) of 2K12 Kub, Slovakia likely profits from this deal.

They can afford to do this because MiG-29 suppliers, pre-war, were already decreasing in number for a long while. The biggest left are Russia (not selling) and Ukraine. The market has gotten so bad that Serbia has opted against upgrading theirs to extend the jets' lives, and Bulgaria has recently paid ~$15m for 6 renovated MiG-29 engines. This figure is high, but at $2.5m per engine, it stands in stark contrast to Slovakia's compensation.

They have two reasons to charge a premium. One is the period of risk until their new air defences and jets come online, and the other is that they gave away a whole S-300 system in exchange for the US and Germany temporarily operating their own Patriot systems in Slovakia.

[Virginiá]

At about $70 million per jet, they're getting more than twice the value of a new MiG-29 of the latest Russian model and more than the value of a new F-16.

When following the MiG-29 saga earlier in the war, I recall stories involving used, demilitarised MiG-29s being sold for ~$5-10 million.

The Slovakian jets are not demilitarised, but they are Soviet export models with a make slightly older than Ukraine's and a few domestic/NATO upgrades. However, IIRC, they do half their maximum service life left (which is better than some of the jets Ukraine must be flying).

Even when you consider that Ukraine is probably getting the rest of their plane parts, any remaining MiG-29-exclusive munitions, and at least 1 battery (probably no more than 5 batteries) of 2K12 Kub, Slovakia likely profits from this deal.

They can afford to do this because MiG-29 suppliers, pre-war, were already decreasing in number for a long while. The biggest left are Russia (not selling) and Ukraine. The market has gotten so bad that Serbia has opted against upgrading theirs to extend the jets' lives, and Bulgaria has recently paid ~$15m for 6 renovated MiG-29 engines. This figure is high, but at $2.5m per engine, it stands in stark contrast to Slovakia's compensation.

They have two reasons to charge a premium. One is the period of risk until their new air defences and jets come online, and the other is that they gave away a whole S-300 system in exchange for the US and Germany temporarily operating their own Patriot systems in Slovakia.

According to this article, the actual compensation for the jets is $200 million, and the remainder is the monetary value of military equipment being given to Slovakia by the US, which hasn't yet been detailed:

The prime minister was alluding to the notified compensation worth 900 million euros. The Slovak Ministry of Defense should receive approximately EUR 200 million from the European Peace Instrument. According to Naď, this money will only come to the account of the next government, which will be formed after the September elections.

The second part of the almost one billion compensation is to be made up of specific military equipment that the United States of America wants to donate to Slovakia for miga. "There is a bilateral offer from the United States of America for specific military equipment, the financial value of which in financial terms for the Slovak Republic will be around 700 million euros," Naď explained today.

However, according to Naď, the American side does not yet want to publish information about exactly what technology is involved. However, he has already provided information about it, for example, to members of the National Council who participated in the secret meeting of the Defense Security Committee. "This is mainly due to the fact that several countries applied for the technology, and Slovakia was the one that won the competition," he clarified the non-disclosure of Naď's offer, according to which it is only a matter of days.

Not that it changes the overall value for Slovakia, but just an interesting tidbit.

[Sir Mohamed]

BASED.

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1636750487310716928

[Hindsight was 2020]

Sir Mohammed made a thread on it but it also deserves to be posted here
https://mobile.twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1636747402865516549

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

BASED.

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1636750487310716928

This needs to be more in focus and is probably more important than land in any peace deal, IMO.

[Sir Mohamed]

BASED.

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1636750487310716928

This needs to be more in focus and is probably more important than land in any peace deal, IMO.

Yup, though Russia doesn't recognize the ICC anyway. Neither does the US and other powers.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

BASED.

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1636750487310716928

This needs to be more in focus and is probably more important than land in any peace deal, IMO.

Yup, though Russia doesn't recognize the ICC anyway. Neither does the US and other powers.

To clarify - I don't mean the ICC, which will be going nowhere. I mean the mass kidnapping of children.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

French article from January about Lvova-Belova is horrifying

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230113-mother-russia-maria-lvova-belova-the-putin-ally-deporting-ukrainian-children

[Santander]

my favorite part of the story is that Russians (and those that simp for them) just love the AK, claim it's the best and there have been about 75 kabillion of them made, but Russia still has to import cheap Chinese M16 knockoffs less than a year into a war they started.

Do you really think the import of 1000 M16 clones (not even confirmed to be seeing combat action, and highly doubtful that they are) invalidates the AK? I'm pretty sure over its decades of service winning freedom for millions of people, it's proven its worth. Wars in 2023 are neither won nor lost by rifles, especially not a mere 1000.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1636804540518236187
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1636819015803781127
NATO intelligence is apparently reporting that Ukraine is still enjoying a 3:1 Kia in Bakmut

[President Johnson]

1,500 per day, if true, is a lot more than the US lost per day in May 1968, the worst month of 'Nam. Let that sink in.

[The Mikado]

Been away from this thread for a week.

It's interesting how a few weeks ago people were saying Bakhmut would fall any day now. Russia's made gains in that area but Bakhmut is still resisting now. How many more weeks will we have "Bakhmut will fall any day now" before we finally see it happen? Will we still be having this same conversation in March?

Bumping, two weeks later. Bakhmut STILL hasn't fallen yet.

Bumping after a month. A lot of the "Bakhmut will fall any day now" confident posts from Jan/Feb look really ridiculous now.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Been away from this thread for a week.

It's interesting how a few weeks ago people were saying Bakhmut would fall any day now. Russia's made gains in that area but Bakhmut is still resisting now. How many more weeks will we have "Bakhmut will fall any day now" before we finally see it happen? Will we still be having this same conversation in March?

Bumping, two weeks later. Bakhmut STILL hasn't fallen yet.

Bumping after a month. A lot of the "Bakhmut will fall any day now" confident posts from Jan/Feb look really ridiculous now.

The February posts in particular look ridiculous because the assumption was Ukraine would retreat when it was more sensible to do so (i.e. that a retreat would start in February at the latest). On the face of it (discounting an "anonymous NATO source" cited by the Guardian), it looks like they are paying a needlessly heavy price for failure to retreat earlier.

[BG-NY]

What’s the most realistic (as in likelihood of happening) path to this conflict ending with minimal future bloodshed?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

What’s the most realistic (as in likelihood of happening) path to this conflict ending with minimal future bloodshed?

One in which Ukraine has a clear path to entering a supranational body (the EU and/or NATO). In the absence of alternative security guarantees which international powers seem unwilling to provide, entry to these bodies is likely to depend on a peace deal, not a mere ceasefire (unless Ukraine controls all that it claims at the time of the ceasefire). This almost certainly requires Vladimir Putin being replaced, given his historical preference for minimal ceasefires/frozen conflicts.

[BG-NY]

What’s the most realistic (as in likelihood of happening) path to this conflict ending with minimal future bloodshed?

One in which Ukraine has a clear path to entering a supranational body (the EU and/or NATO). In the absence of alternative security guarantees which international powers seem unwilling to provide, entry to these bodies is likely to depend on a peace deal, not a mere ceasefire (unless Ukraine controls all that it claims at the time of the ceasefire). This almost certainly requires Vladimir Putin being replaced, given his historical preference for minimal ceasefires/frozen conflicts.

Is Putin being replaced realistic? If not, what is the path to a ceasefire?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

What’s the most realistic (as in likelihood of happening) path to this conflict ending with minimal future bloodshed?

One in which Ukraine has a clear path to entering a supranational body (the EU and/or NATO). In the absence of alternative security guarantees which international powers seem unwilling to provide, entry to these bodies is likely to depend on a peace deal, not a mere ceasefire (unless Ukraine controls all that it claims at the time of the ceasefire). This almost certainly requires Vladimir Putin being replaced, given his historical preference for minimal ceasefires/frozen conflicts.

Is Putin being replaced realistic?

No one should base their foreign policy on it happening anytime soon, but he's 70 and some of his actions seem to be informed by concern about domestic backlash to the war. It's certainly realistic that he could be replaced.

If not, what is the path to a ceasefire?

I don't know which is the best, but there's more than one. An unstable ceasefire/frozen conflict which doesn't lead to a lasting peace seems the most realistic scenario, unfortunately.

[HillGoose]

What’s the most realistic (as in likelihood of happening) path to this conflict ending with minimal future bloodshed?

NATO gets involved and destroys all russian military capabilities within minutes using PGS systems

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1636790150481969168

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

What’s the most realistic (as in likelihood of happening) path to this conflict ending with minimal future bloodshed?

Korean style ceasefire

[jaichind]

https://english.almayadeen.net/news/economics/widodo-urges-indonesia-to-abandon-visa-mastercard-to-be-inde

"Widodo urges Indonesia to abandon Visa, MasterCard to be 'independent'"

Indonesia Prez pushing for decoupling from foreign payment networks like MasterCard and Visa in order to mitigate geopolitical risk for the Indonesian economy.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-17/top-oil-exporter-saudi-arabia-loads-up-on-russian-diesel

"Top Oil Exporter Saudi Arabia Loads Up on Russian Diesel"

Saudi Arabia’s imports of diesel from Russia have surged
At the same time, the kingdom is sending big amounts to Europe

Saudi Arabia getting into this recycling of Russian energy game which India is already very big in.  Competition between Saudi Arabia and India as energy middlemen will for sure reduce the Russian energy discount.    Malaysia is already in this game but its main role is to disguise Russian energy exports to PRC whereas India and Saudi Arabia is mostly targeting the EU as the destination.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This meme is funny but inaccurate.
I actually think America Good and I care about protecting American power and global stability through whatever means are necessary.
But you would know that by now if you actually read my posts earnestly, in a fair spirit of inquiry.
I'm happy enough that we have an administration that basically follows my school of thought, where loose cannons and mindless hawks aren't calling the shots. My school of thought is mostly winning in real life, which matters more than the feelings of people on a singular internet forum.
That you think that I think "America bad" shows how little you actually know about my attitudes, personally. You are just assuming I share the same set of ideas for how government ought to work as you. I don't. Please get that in your head.

[emailking]

Defiant Putin makes ‘working visit’ to occupied Mariupol, symbol of Ukrainian resistance

Vladimir Putin has made a “working visit” to Russian-occupied Mariupol, in an apparently defiant move reported just days after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for him.

Putin was flown into Mariupol by helicopter and toured districts around the city in a car, according to Russian state news agency RIA Novosti.

It said the Russian leader had stopped to speak to residents in the city’s Nevsky neighborhood and claimed he was invited into a resident’s home. It did not make clear when the visit took place.

News of the visit comes after the ICC issued arrest warrants on Friday for Putin and Russian official Maria Lvova-Belova for an alleged scheme to deport Ukrainian children to Russia.

The visit is likely to be seen as particularly provocative to Ukrainians as Mariupol was long a symbol of resistance that has witnessed some of the most intense fighting since Russia launched its invasion last year.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/19/europe/putin-mariupol-visit-icc-intl-hnk/index.html