Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread
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Author Topic: Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread  (Read 826135 times)
President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #20325 on: March 19, 2023, 09:16:50 PM »

Knowing what we know at the moment, what is the likelihood that Mariupol is in Russian hands six months from now?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #20326 on: March 19, 2023, 09:18:14 PM »

If Poland enters the conflict, does this entail them getting NATO protection?
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Dereich
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« Reply #20327 on: March 19, 2023, 09:52:36 PM »

If Poland enters the conflict, does this entail them getting NATO protection?

Quote from: NATO Charter

Article 5

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Poland going to war would not constitute an armed attack requiring self defense. There would be no treaty obligations against it. They could call them all to consultation if they felt their "territorial integrity, political independence or security" were threatened, but that's it. I'm sure it would be understood that NATO would not stand by if the Russians tried to conquer Poland, but it wouldn't be out of treaty obligations.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #20328 on: March 19, 2023, 10:02:10 PM »

If Poland enters the conflict, does this entail them getting NATO protection?

Quote from: NATO Charter

Article 5

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Poland going to war would not constitute an armed attack requiring self defense. There would be no treaty obligations against it. They could call them all to consultation if they felt their "territorial integrity, political independence or security" were threatened, but that's it. I'm sure it would be understood that NATO would not stand by if the Russians tried to conquer Poland, but it wouldn't be out of treaty obligations.
Ah. That's what I suspected.
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BG-NY
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« Reply #20329 on: March 20, 2023, 02:11:27 AM »

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jaichind
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« Reply #20330 on: March 20, 2023, 03:28:51 AM »

https://www.yahoo.com/news/czech-president-believes-ukraine-one-012629476.html

"Czech President believes Ukraine has one attempt to carry out major counteroffensive"

Quote
"The window of opportunity is open this year. After next winter, it will be extremely difficult to maintain the current level of assistance," Pavel was quoted. "War fatigue is not only the exhaustion of human resources and equipment, the destruction of infrastructure in Ukraine, but also fatigue in the countries that provide aid."
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Logical
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« Reply #20331 on: March 20, 2023, 07:25:21 AM »

Sneaking around someone's apartment at 2 am and slinking out before the sun rises does not inspire confidence, doesn't it?
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windjammer
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« Reply #20332 on: March 20, 2023, 08:13:33 AM »

Are you being optimistic about the Ukraine counteroffensive?

Honestly I am. I have the feeling the Ukrainians & the Americans are preparing something great

6 months ago I was worried about the war being a perpetual stalemate, with the Ukrainians holding the Russians back, but not able to launch counteroffensives. Then came the Ukrainian counteroffensives that liberated Kherson and Kharkiv. I have stopped underestimating the Ukrainian army and overestimating the Russian army.

The Russians have only advanced 2.5 miles a month in the Bakhmut area, while they lost Kherson and Kharkiv.  
My reasoning is that the Russians are still underperforming expectations so they are still being overestimated. Like they were supposed to capture Bakhmut for a few months now and it appears they are still far away from achieving this.
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Woody
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« Reply #20333 on: March 20, 2023, 10:23:37 AM »



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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #20334 on: March 20, 2023, 10:23:59 AM »

Putin visiting Mariupol, inspecting the reconstruction:
[snip]
How is Ukrainian media taking all this?
Don't know. Malding probably.

This is the first time I believe Putin has visited his newly acquired territories, with the exception of Crimea of course.

SirWoodbury

What is on Россия-1 (Russia-1) right now?
The Brave and Glorious Leader is visiting the liberated territories! The fact that he's making his first visit to the Former Ukrainian Territories in the middle of the night with heavy security and not going anywhere near the front line clearly shows everything is going to plan, and the Special Military Operation will very soon reach a victorious conclusion!!!
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Virginiá
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« Reply #20335 on: March 20, 2023, 10:33:27 AM »
« Edited: March 20, 2023, 10:38:08 AM by Virginiá »



New $350 million PDA assistance for Ukraine, from the US:

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3334472/dod-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #20336 on: March 20, 2023, 11:44:04 AM »


It looks like Ukraine is making moves to start self producing western style weapons probably as a back up if the war does indeed drag on and western aid starts to diminish
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #20337 on: March 20, 2023, 11:50:52 AM »


It looks like Ukraine is making moves to start self producing western style weapons probably as a back up if the war does indeed drag on and western aid starts to diminish
The infamous Iranian-made Shahed drone is cobbled together from consumer electronics and very crude explosives, engines, and spare parts. No reasons Ukraine couldn't do the same to strike back against Russia.
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Damocles
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« Reply #20338 on: March 20, 2023, 04:14:38 PM »

Drones are just poor man’s cruise missiles. Don’t @ me
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Woody
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« Reply #20339 on: March 20, 2023, 05:14:31 PM »

Another package & Leopard 2A4s are now in Ukraine:


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Bismarck
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« Reply #20340 on: March 21, 2023, 07:02:24 AM »

Japanese PM Fumio Kishida made a surprise visit to Ukraine in a show of support to counter China.

 
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jaichind
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« Reply #20341 on: March 21, 2023, 08:20:12 AM »

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Russia-Writes-Off-20-Billion-In-Debt-To-African-Countries-20230320-0015.html

"Russia Writes Off 20 Billion In Debt To African Countries"



Sounds like Russia does not have liquidity problems if it can afford to write off $20 billion in debt to gain clout and influence in Africa.
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Torie
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« Reply #20342 on: March 21, 2023, 09:31:38 AM »

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Russia-Writes-Off-20-Billion-In-Debt-To-African-Countries-20230320-0015.html

"Russia Writes Off 20 Billion In Debt To African Countries"

Sounds like Russia does not have liquidity problems if it can afford to write off $20 billion in debt to gain clout and influence in Africa.

Writing off bad debt has no impact on liquidity. But you are right. The West needs to do more to BK Russia.
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jaichind
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« Reply #20343 on: March 21, 2023, 10:59:01 AM »

https://declassifieduk.org/britain-supplying-depleted-uranium-rounds-to-ukraine/

"BRITAIN SUPPLYING DEPLETED URANIUM ROUNDS TO UKRAINE"

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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #20344 on: March 21, 2023, 12:06:15 PM »


Probably a matter of limited ammunition for the Challenger 2's gun rather than political will, but it might have been helped along by the Litvinenko polonium tea incident.

Radioactivity doesn't seem to be much of a factor in these rounds' effects if their public history is anything to go by (and certainly wouldn't be worth using in a "dirty bomb" as Russia claims), but the uranium's toxicity is a bigger issue. It is probably going to be worse for the environment than the average shell, even considering the older shells which fail to detonate properly.

In general, the war and its UXO problem are going to be very bad news for farmers in years to come.
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BG-NY
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« Reply #20345 on: March 21, 2023, 12:40:57 PM »

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Woody
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« Reply #20346 on: March 21, 2023, 01:31:21 PM »

Almost two thirds of the city is under Russian Army control. Bakhmut is going to be Artyomovsk again.

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #20347 on: March 21, 2023, 07:53:01 PM »

American tanks coming to Ukraine sooner than anticipated...

Quote
The Pentagon, in a significant shift, said Tuesday that it will send M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine by the fall, after facing scrutiny for initially saying it could take a year or two to procure the powerful weapons and get them to the battlefield.

The new plan calls for refurbishing tank hulls already in the U.S. arsenal, officials said. President Biden, under intensifying pressure from Ukrainian officials, agreed in January to pledge 31 M1 tanks as part of a long-term arrangement that afforded German leaders political cover so that they could approve the immediate provision of Leopard battle tanks.

Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder, a Pentagon spokesman, said that when the United States promised to provide Ukraine with the Abrams, the intent was to provide its more advanced variant, the M1A2. But, he said, officials continued “exploring options to deliver the armored capability as quickly as possible” and settled on refurbishing older M1A1 variants, allowing for expedited delivery. He did not clarify where it found those hulls in the American arsenal.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/03/21/abrams-tanks-ukraine/
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #20348 on: March 21, 2023, 08:05:45 PM »
« Edited: March 21, 2023, 08:20:33 PM by NOVA Green »

A Russian Anti-Putin partisan group claims credit for the recent FSB fire and explosion in Russia.

Quote
A Russian anti-Putin partisan movement called Black Bridge has claimed responsibility for last week's fire at a building used by Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don near to the Ukraine border.

Black Bridge, one of several partisan movements in Russia, called the FSB "a stronghold of hypocrisy, violence and injustice" in a Telegram post on Monday about the March 16 blast and blaze.

Black Bridge said that the fire broke out due to an improvised explosive device, which was placed in a container of fuel.

At least four people were reported killed and five were wounded in the fire that broke out at the building belonging to the FSB, whose roles include internal security and counter-terrorism in the country.


"It is the employees of this structure that fabricate criminal cases against objectionable people, squeeze business from entrepreneurs, arrange sabotage against civilians, torture oppositionists and physically eliminate 'competitors,'" the group said in a statement.

"Since the beginning of the events in Ukraine, none of the partisans has paid due attention to the attacks on the buildings of their department or on the representatives of the special services themselves."



https://www.newsweek.com/black-bridge-russia-fsb-building-fire-rostov-don-1789215
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #20349 on: March 21, 2023, 08:27:58 PM »

On a somewhat related note, here is an article I saw in The Post as well about how the War in Ukraine is starting to come home to Russia proper, in this case not Russian citizens challenging their own government but rather increased Ukrainian military capability to hit Russian targets.

It does have a couple good maps if you are interested in using up a free article from behind the paywall.

Snippets from a much longer article:

Quote
Three drones buzzed through the night sky on Feb. 27 over Belgorod, a Russian city just a couple dozen miles from the Ukrainian border. One drone smashed through the window of a sixth-floor apartment, startling a couple who were watching television. The other two crashed on nearby streets, denting parked cars and rattling the residents’ nerves.

Ten days later, workers at an oil-pumping station in Novozybkov, a small town in Russia’s Bryansk region, found a small bomb that officials said was probably dropped from a drone. Later that day, in Rostov-on-Don, a building of the Federal Security Service, or FSB, exploded in flames — the latest in a string of mysterious fires across western Russia.


Quote
In the early months of the invasion, only sites very close to the Russia-Ukraine border were targeted by drone strikes, mainly ammunition depots and fuel tanks. Over time, the reach of these strikes has grown longer and longer, approaching Moscow.

Late last month, a military drone attempted to strike a gas compression station, a key part of the region’s energy grid, in Kolomna, about 50 miles south of the Kremlin, according to senior Russian officials.

Quote
In December, Ukrainian drones carried out a double strike on the Saratov Engels-2 air base, which houses Russia’s strategic nuclear bombers.

Quote
There have been at least 27 publicly reported drone attacks on high-value targets in Russia, primarily military bases, airfields and energy facilities. In some cases, drones crashed or were shot down before reaching their targets. At least three drones crashed near Astrakhan, a city close to the Caspian Sea near where Russia fires missiles into Ukraine.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/21/ukraine-war-russian-soil/
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