Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[DavidB.]

Big thanks to Poland for protecting Europe.

[DavidB.]

If you want to be critical of Ukrainian military preparedness, here's a Canadian colonel:

AT = anti-tank, KZ = kill zone

https://www.worldaffairsboard.com/forum/international-defense-geopolitics-discussion/europe-and-russia/1578933-2021-2022-russo-ukrainian-crisis/page3#post1580107

I have a very low view of the Ukranian military. Ok, the high tech stuff they have an excuse for but there is absolutely no reason why shovel and concrete have not been used to their fullest extent. The Ukrainians had over 6 years to prepare. There is ONE fortified trench in the south. There should be at least 3. The Soviets built up Kursk against three German armies in 6 months. The UKR had over a year since last uproar and not one single AT minefield had been laid. Not one single KZ has been set out.

There is zero doubt in my mind that the UKR is extremely capable of repelling the Russians. All it takes is a will which they are lacking. The Iraqis did a better job in Kuwait than the Ukrainians are doing now. Why the Iraqis failed is that they did not obey the Soviet tenet that as soon as the Americans hit your lines, rush forward. It's not like the Ukrainians are lacking in military expertise. They have senior leadership that came out of the same Soviet military academies as the Russians.

The Ukrainians should have absolute confidence that they can repel the Russians. The fact that they don't says more of their unwillingness than of their incapabilities.

There is something else being ignored. This is NOT about Moscow against Kiev as much as Kiev supporters like to pretend otherwise. This is about Russian speaking Ukrainians vs Ukraninian speaking Ukrainians. This is brother against brother and it's the damndest ugliest kind of war. It takes a lot to get family to bloodlust for each other and once that hate sets in, pride and ego is the only thing keeping a man from going insane about killing his own brother. Pride and ego is the only thing stopping you from killing your own kids after you killed your brother.

So, to answer your question, how capable are the Ukrainians in conducting a prolonged insurgency. Very capable. Just as capable as the Ukrainians are in suppressing it.

This is nonsense. The vast majority of Russian speakers in Ukraine do not support a Russian invasion.

[DavidB.]

Correct. On the other hand, they are less likely to put up serious resistance to a Russian invasion and would be the key base of support for a ‘puppet government’ (although I don’t think a puppet government is especially likely).

There is a wide range of opinions among Russian-speaking Ukrainians. Many (perhaps most) are just as patriotic as their Ukrainian-speaking compatriots. Some oppose an invasion but will be less likely to put up resistance. Others support an invasion. But the first group is bigger than the second and the second bigger than the third, and then you have everything in between. Any "puppet government" would be very unlikely to have substantial support.

[DavidB.]

This is the end of the post-Cold War era in terms of geopolitics and possibly the biggest testcase for the Western "liberal institutionalist" approach towards international politics to date. If there are no credible sanctions, that approach is over. And China will invade Taiwan this year still.

[DavidB.]

I must say that the situation is terrible. But so far I'm fine. At the moment, I am taking my family out of my city to the village where I have a house. Details will be announced later, if possible

Stay safe, man. Praying for you and for Ukraine.

[DavidB.]

https://twitter.com/jerusalem_post/status/1496846027747381255?s=21

[DavidB.]

Classic EU.

https://twitter.com/MatinaStevis/status/1496758467943866374?s=20

[DavidB.]

It seems Olaf Scholz indicated he cannot support cutting Russia off from SWIFT.

The SPD is worthless. Completely in Putin's pocket. If they are the ones frustrating a coherent and robust Western or European response, that should have consequences for the way we view the Scholz govt.

[DavidB.]

And another case of "the worst person you know just made a great point".

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497170134095613955?s=20&t=tUbB4EXR7_C...

[DavidB.]

Georgia's government has shown its true colors. After pretending to continue the Western path (although the ruling party's eminence grise is a billionaire who does a lot of business in Russia) which is crucial to win public support (~80 % support accession to NATO and EU), the government has announced it will not join sanctions against Russia, blamed the opposition for the 2008 War (they really have no other empty talking point) and provide liquidity to Georgia's branch of the VTB Bank that was hit by Russian sanctions.
The only Georgian representative who sided with Ukraine is the President, an office that was stripped of all its powers and that will be be elected by a council selected by government party cronies instead of popular vote from 2024 on.

Hundreds, if not thousands, of people demonstrated to support Russia yesterday, and this action will hopefully absolutely backfire against this goddamn insane Georgian Dream (more like Nightmare) gov't.

It has nothing to do with GD showing its "true colors" and everything with any responsible Georgian government being cautious not to be the next country to be invaded. Georgia is much weaker than Ukraine in terms of military strength and has no security guarantees whatsoever - indeed, Georgians currently witness in Ukraine the fact that NATO's "sympathy" and a "potential path to accession" (that most Georgians don't really believe is going to happen anymore anyway, as the West doesn't give them any credible perspective to accession) means absolutely nothing when the Russians knock on the door.

It is equally true that while Russia was the aggressor and "victim blaming" is very wrong, Saakashvili did behave irresponsibly and exacerbated the situation in 2008. Saahaskvili's later domestic behavior is the exact reason why GD keeps getting re-elected and will continue to be re-elected until a serious, non-Saakashvili-led alternative contender for power emerges.

[DavidB.]

Not a bad idea. Israel hasn't condemned Russia's attack yet, which is reprehensible from a moral perspective, but which might make them acceptable to Russia as a neutral honest broker and contribute to peace.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497315065980022785?s=20&t=Wz8pxkhRXSNpt...

[DavidB.]

Hope Andriy is okay... according to his profile he lives in Vinnytsja...

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497593214362173444?s=20&t=hspPH1jEWLzyA...

[DavidB.]

Tbh, not necessarily. If you further spin this and if Putin is insane enough, he could just demand Poland and Baltics to leave NATO or be occupied/annexed by Russia and threaten nuclear warfare. NATO HQ - or de facto Joe Biden - would be left with the decision to either surrender said countries or start WWIII with millions of deaths. I'm not sure millions of Europeans in France, Germany, Netherlands etc. and millions of Americans would be willing to die to have vast parts of their countries as nuclear deserts because of a bunch of Eastern European countries.

Not that I think this is likely, though Putin could for whatever reason decide it was worth the risk.

Extremely unlikely scenario. If any EU countries are attacked, the rest of the EU will absolutely respond, and I have no doubt there would be more than enough public support for it in most countries.

In any case, all of this probably already means an EU army will be set up.

[DavidB.]

Lol.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497616981016690692?s=20&t=u2OUaMaAhKfG4...

[DavidB.]

By the time Biden makes up his mind about SWIFT, Russia and China will have a viable alternative up and running. War requires decisive action-- something he is notoriously poor at.

But I thought America was back...

[DavidB.]

I'm not optimistic about the situation at all. It is clear that Putin has miscalculated the situation very badly, but now they have no way back, which means the Russian attack could get a lot more brutal as things progress. The West must step up its game. Putin wants us to believe he's going to nuke Washington D.C. and Brussels if we do, but he's really not. I don't think a no-fly zone is helpful at this point, but we need to deliver a lot more arms to Ukraine and isolate Russia further.

[DavidB.]

The fact that one European state is inflicting such unspeakable evil on another European state and its citizens in this day and age is something I never expected to witness. We truly live in a different world now that this has happened, and it will never be as before again.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1502751813715611650?s=20&t=TObvJFRhBH...

[DavidB.]

The fact that one European state is inflicting such unspeakable evil on another European state and its citizens in this day and age is something I never expected to witness. We truly live in a different world now that this has happened, and it will never be as before again.

Channeling Prince William huh? Still believe in the White Man's Burden?

No idea what this babbling is supposed to mean, but as a European I find a war on my own continent in a country I visited multiple times quite a bit more scary than elsewhere. Sue me.

[DavidB.]

Astounding. On the day of the Russian invasion, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) told Ukrainian ambassador Melnyk that cutting off Russia from SWIFT or providing arms for the defense of Ukraine would be "useless" because "you will only last a few hours", all while smiling politely. Lindner thought it would be necessary to already accept the idea that Ukraine would be ruled by a pro-Russian puppet regime. Melnyk calls it "the worst conversation I've had in my life".

Apart from the fact that publicizing this may not improve the bilateral German-Ukrainian relationship... this is not a good look at all for Lindner. And also not for Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD), who was apparently only concerned about her own image on the day of the invasion. Climate Minister Robert Habeck (Greens), however, seemed to genuinely care about the situation in Ukraine, according to Melnyk.

https://twitter.com/norazabel/status/1507775219162918919?s=20&t=DTw4ZWM8CI5L...

[DavidB.]

We should absolutely welcome all (real, actual) Ukrainian refugees, send as much military aid to Ukraine as possible, and phase out Russian energy asap. I fully support it. But politicians aiming to boycott Russian oil and gas right now better have a backup option on offer.

As long as the political will isn't there to use perfectly viable backup options - our existing coal and nuclear plants which have been scaled off or shut down completely for the sake of the climate heresy (in the case of coal) and for an even dumber scare campaign that actually left us more dependent on Russia (in the case of nuclear) - it is perverse to call for immediate boycotts: it will make sure millions of Europeans descend into energy poverty. But not the stunning and brave green/liberal politicians calling for the boycott, of course.

[DavidB.]

Yes. Regardless of the fact that some people on here like to pretend that the working class or middle class is "suffering", that is mostly a ridiculous statement. Most working class/middle class people in northwestern Europe have solid personal finances, and while the current price hikes sucks, it is pretty far from economic disasterous for very many at all.

I'm sure this will be a very popular political message.

[DavidB.]

It's kind of infuriating that we (as NATO countries) aren't sending more arms to Ukraine. We crossed that bridge already anyway. No reason to be reluctant.

[DavidB.]

So happy you're doing okay given the circumstances and that you're posting here, Andriy.

[DavidB.]

Was about to say there hasn't been polling yet, but Forsa conducted a quick poll just now: 63% don't understand to Zelenskyi's actions, 33% understand.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1514269312084848644?t=91y6JkSt-aqOwBM9VrbD-...

Note that this is the same public that...
- supported giving Russia "security guarantees" (51% vs. 28%)
- was split on new sanctions (44% vs. 43%)
- vehemently opposed delivering any weapons to Ukraine (71% vs. 20%)
...in a poll from 2nd of February (https://www.infratest-dimap.de/umfragen-analysen/bundesweit/ard-deutschlandtrend/2022/februar/)

So cynical how Ukrainians are becoming the victims of the Germans' narcissistic WWII guilt boner for Russia.

[DavidB.]

New German poll numbers. Voters are aligning with their government in opposition to a gas embargo, while at the same time opposing the government (or at least the Chancellor, since the government is in disagreement with itself here) when it comes to stronger military aid. In a bout of historical irony, voters of the formerly pacifist Greens have become the strongest supporters of strong military aid to Ukraine.


Infratest dimap for ARD-Deutschlandtrend (conducted 04/11 and 04/12, released 04/14)

Opinion on an immediate embargo on Russian oil and gas
Support 40%
Oppose 48%

Support broken down by party affiliation
Greens 58%
SPD 44%
FDP 44%
CDU/CSU 38%
AfD 10%

Opinion on providing Ukraine with "heavy weapons" (tanks etc.)
Support 55%
Oppose 37%

Support broken down by party affiliation
Greens 72%
SPD 66%
FDP 65%
CDU/CSU 63%
AfD 20%

No numbers for Die Linke?