Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread
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Author Topic: Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread  (Read 825282 times)
NOVA Green
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« Reply #20225 on: March 15, 2023, 08:37:00 PM »

A few random updates lumped into one:

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The United States on Wednesday promised to “fully and quickly” give Ukraine the weapons required for a spring counteroffensive against Russia, addressing one of the most critical needs amid a global shortage of ammunition caused in part by the yearlong conflict.

Quote
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based research body, said this step “may suggest that the Kremlin is prioritizing using skilled workers in the production of Russian weapons over having skilled soldiers fight in Russia’s military.”

It added that Mr. Putin had announced “a series of reforms to attract more specialists to work at military production plants, including the reallocation of federal assets to housing and increasing pay.”

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Mr. Austin, speaking to reporters after the five-hour virtual meeting, said that Sweden had pledged 10 Leopard battle tanks, and that Norway and the United States were donating two NASAMS, or National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems.

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In a sign of how Russia’s invasion is also changing world alliances, Finland may be closer to becoming a member of NATO. Turkey appeared poised to declare its support for Finland’s bid to join the group, the Finnish president, Sauli Niinisto, said on Wednesday, ahead of a meeting on Friday with Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/15/world/europe/ukraine-allies-weapons-russia.html
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #20226 on: March 15, 2023, 09:27:34 PM »

Looks like the Russian price cap of $60 barrel is going to stick, *at least for now*.

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The Group of Seven advanced democracies want to keep the price cap on Russian crude at $60 a barrel, according to people familiar with the matter, thwarting hopes in some European capitals of tightening the Western sanctions this month.

European Commission officials warned the bloc’s member states about the G-7 position, saying that President Biden had told European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in the Oval Office of the White House last week there was no appetite in Washington for adjusting the oil sanctions, according to the people familiar with the matter.

A spokeswoman for the U.S. National Security Council declined to comment.

The G-7 position could spark fresh tensions within the EU over the price-cap scheme. Western officials had agreed to review the $60 a barrel level for the price cap in March, and Poland and the Baltic states have repeatedly pressed for a cap below $60 a barrel. Ukrainian officials have supported lowering the cap, hoping to further reduce Russia’s oil revenues.

Officials at the U.S Treasury, which designed the price-cap plan, have said that the current price-cap system is largely working as intended. They have argued that the plan is already achieving its two goals: keeping Russian oil available on global markets, while still reducing the Kremlin’s revenue from the sales.





https://www.wsj.com/articles/g-7-opposes-lowering-russian-crude-price-cap-from-60-a-barrel-586ecc30?mod=hp_lead_pos10
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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« Reply #20227 on: March 15, 2023, 10:29:17 PM »

Why does it matter to you WHY India is buying Russian oil? The fact is that they are buying tons of it and that is great to give Russia a way out of the sanctions!

What is exactly that you’re bragging about? Uhh India is helping Russia but it’s not because they like like Russia, they still like us better. Is international geopolitics like middle school to you people or something?

It’s so fascinating to see how most people here tend to frame everything under a morality or friends logic lmao. The other dude was posting some irrelevant map about what powerless average people abroad think of the US.

Newsflash: there isn’t morality OR true “friendship” in geopolitics. Everyone is driven by their self-interests. They can be directed towards different things simultaneously and sometimes may be even misguided internal strategies, but no ones does anything only because they have more personal friendship with one country more than they have with another.

No, of course not. Indians have always been world-renowned for haggling, so they aren't making decisions based on friendship or feelings. The fact that the Indian government calculated that it was the best course of action to order its buyers to buy Russian oil at a price cap the western countries imposed, which effectively forces the Russians to sell the oil at barely any profit, means they're happy to let the Russians suffer if they save some foreign exchange. The fact that the Indian government ordered its buyers not to use Chinese Yuan to buy Russian oil out of distrust of China - and directed them to use what is effectively a sovereign-backed US Dollar-based stablecoin instead - also means they would rather perpetuate US financial hegemony than enjoy whatever benefit that might exist with trading in Chinese Yuan. Nothing wrong with that, but it disproves any notion that the Global South is coalescing around Russia in its fight against western hegemony.

Depends on what you consider “siding with Russia” because the meaning of that seems to change around here depending on what’s more convenient.

I’m tired of hearing here that neutrality is impossible in this situation of aggression and that it is by default a “Pro-Russia” position. But when it’s undeniably pointed the neutrality of global south countries in this conflict, you shift the narrative to Global South isn’t getting behind Russia because they’re neutral, it’s “only business” as you mention for India.

You can only pick one narrative without entering a contradiction. If western leaders weren’t concerned about where the global south stands in this this conflict, you wouldn’t hear the stuff that leaders like Macron talk very publicly about here:



Macron is also a f@cking idiot with the political instincts of a demented walrus.

Why is he? For voicing the exact stuff I’ve always been voicing here when you probably think it’s not convenient to do so from a Western perspective to even acknowledge the existence of a Global South?

Something like that, yeah.
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jaichind
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« Reply #20228 on: March 16, 2023, 03:54:29 AM »

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/15/dod-ukraine-war-supplies-00087291

"‘Ukraine doesn’t have any time to waste’: U.S. races to prepare Kyiv for spring offensive"

Quote
Washington is increasingly concerned about Ukraine’s dwindling supply of ammo and air defenses.

Rushing into an offensive because you are running out of ammo and air defense just sounds like a very risky and imprudent idea.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #20229 on: March 16, 2023, 04:52:02 AM »

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/15/dod-ukraine-war-supplies-00087291

"‘Ukraine doesn’t have any time to waste’: U.S. races to prepare Kyiv for spring offensive"

Quote
Washington is increasingly concerned about Ukraine’s dwindling supply of ammo and air defenses.

Rushing into an offensive because you are running out of ammo and air defense just sounds like a very risky and imprudent idea.

The article doesn't actually say that the Ukrainians intend or need to rush into an offensive because they run out of ammo... meaning there's not the causality here that you have constructed.

From a military perspective, the spring offensive is something that needs to be happen one way or the other and the article then deals with the issue of how the U.S. government intends to rush to Ukraine's assistance by supplying them with the necessary equipment and training in due time. That's really the only context the word "rush" is used there.
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jaichind
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« Reply #20230 on: March 16, 2023, 05:17:40 AM »

LiveUAMap shows that Krasnohorivka is under Russian control and that fighting has reached the main road into Avdiivka.  If Ukraine cannot hold its position in  Stepove there might be an operational encirclement here as well.


Ukraine's press releases also mention that fighting has reached Stepove although they have beaten back the Russians there.
https://ukranews.com/en/news/921148-enemy-attacks-maryanka-12-times-on-march-15-general-staff
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Woody
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« Reply #20231 on: March 16, 2023, 05:24:46 AM »

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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #20232 on: March 16, 2023, 06:30:17 AM »


The past 2 weeks Russia has been losing on average 1k a day not to mention the spike in tank and artillery losses.
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Woody
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« Reply #20233 on: March 16, 2023, 06:33:28 AM »

LiveUAMap shows that Krasnohorivka is under Russian control and that fighting has reached the main road into Avdiivka.  If Ukraine cannot hold its position in  Stepove there might be an operational encirclement here as well.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FrVWjvMXgAIJ8M4?format=jpg&name=small

Ukraine's press releases also mention that fighting has reached Stepove although they have beaten back the Russians there.
https://ukranews.com/en/news/921148-enemy-attacks-maryanka-12-times-on-march-15-general-staff
LiveUAMap is such a wonky and sloppy mess of a map. Very disappointing in comparison to the Syrian one.
Anyway, here is a better one (Vesele is marked as AFU, but it's actually Russian):
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Woody
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« Reply #20234 on: March 16, 2023, 06:34:44 AM »

https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1636256856795488258
The past 2 weeks Russia has been losing on average 1k a day not to mention the spike in tank and artillery losses.
In case you didn't know, those are cope numbers.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #20235 on: March 16, 2023, 07:08:53 AM »



Ukraine seems to be overhyping how vaunted the T-90M is (for obvious propaganda/moral reasons) but even still Russia losing its best tanks because they incorrectly deploy them could be a key factor when Ukraine launches its counter offensive
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #20236 on: March 16, 2023, 09:54:25 AM »

https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1636256856795488258
The past 2 weeks Russia has been losing on average 1k a day not to mention the spike in tank and artillery losses.
In case you didn't know, those are cope numbers.

Even if you cut them in half (which, IMHO, based on visually confirmed losses, the intensity of the fighting, and studies of claimed vs confirmed losses from past wars, probably gets us close to the real figure), this is still devastating and unsustainable in the long term.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #20237 on: March 16, 2023, 09:59:04 AM »



Ukraine seems to be overhyping how vaunted the T-90M is (for obvious propaganda/moral reasons) but even still Russia losing its best tanks because they incorrectly deploy them could be a key factor when Ukraine launches its counter offensive

It's worth noting that none of the T-90Ms I've seen near the frontline have had their most advertised feature, the Arena active protection system, equipped. This has, allegedly, been in service for years, so its absence is a mystery.

Perhaps they don't want to allow it to be seen to fail; perhaps it didn't really leave testing as claimed. The most likely explanation, to me, is that it was simply too expensive to install on a meaningful number of tanks, considering corruption, parts shortages, sanctions etc. If Russia changes that, this tank could be a different beast.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #20238 on: March 16, 2023, 10:29:28 AM »

https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1636256856795488258
The past 2 weeks Russia has been losing on average 1k a day not to mention the spike in tank and artillery losses.
In case you didn't know, those are cope numbers.

Even if you cut them in half (which, IMHO, based on visually confirmed losses, the intensity of the fighting, and studies of claimed vs confirmed losses from past wars, probably gets us close to the real figure), this is still devastating and unsustainable in the long term.
Thankfully I put the bootlicker on ignore so I didn’t see his response but unfortunately got to see it through you but to claim Ukraine is making up causality is kinda ironic as they’re estimates are conservative compared to western intelligence assessments of Russian causalities which they had at 200k back in January
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #20239 on: March 16, 2023, 10:31:21 AM »

Yes, that Russia is enduring major casualties in this conflict isn't exactly an outlandish claim.

Though the fact also remains they can afford to take significantly more losses than Ukraine.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #20240 on: March 16, 2023, 10:35:18 AM »

FYI the main reason why Germany maintained superior casualty ratios well into 1944 was because the Soviets really struggled with artillery production
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Woody
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« Reply #20241 on: March 16, 2023, 10:44:30 AM »

Update from previous post: Ukrainian commander of the 46th Airmobile Brigade was demoted after he talked to Washington Post about how grim the situation really is. Ukrainian war journalist, Yuri Butusov, even defended him for this. The now former commander "Kupol" handed a resignation letter after being demoted.

Please Zelensky stans, defend this:


https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/16/7393733/

Quote
Anatolii "Kupol" Kozel, was demoted from the post of combat battalion commander of the 46th Airmobile Brigade to deputy commander of the training centre battalion after a controversial interview with The Washington Post.

Source: sources of Ukrainska Pravda in the 46th brigade

Details: As sources of UP noted, the decision to demote Kupol was made by the commander of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Major General Maksym Myrhorodskyi.

In response to such a move, Kupol wrote a resignation letter.

Previous post about the interview:

Washington Post - Ukraine short of skilled troops and munitions as losses, pessimism grow

Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/13/ukraine-casualties-pessimism-ammunition-shortage/

Quote
DNIPROPETROVSK REGION, Ukraine — The quality of Ukraine’s military force, once considered a substantial advantage over Russia, has been degraded by a year of casualties that have taken many of the most experienced fighters off the battlefield, leading some Ukrainian officials to question Kyiv’s readiness to mount a much-anticipated spring offensive.
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“The most valuable thing in war is combat experience,” said a battalion commander in the 46th Air Assault Brigade, who is being identified only by his call sign, Kupol, in keeping with Ukrainian military protocol. “A soldier who has survived six months of combat and a soldier who came from a firing range are two different soldiers. It’s heaven and earth.”

“And there are only a few soldiers with combat experience,” Kupol added. “Unfortunately, they are all already dead or wounded.”
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Kupol said he was speaking out in hopes of securing better training for Ukrainian forces from Washington and that he hopes Ukrainian troops being held back for a coming counteroffensive will have more success than the inexperienced soldiers now manning the front under his command.

“There’s always belief in a miracle,” he said. “Either it will be a massacre and corpses or it’s going to be a professional counteroffensive. There are two options. There will be a counteroffensive either way.”
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“If you have more resources, you more actively attack,” the senior official said. “If you have fewer resources, you defend more. We’re going to defend. That’s why if you ask me personally, I don’t believe in a big counteroffensive for us. I’d like to believe in it, but I’m looking at the resources and asking, ‘With what?’ Maybe we’ll have some localized breakthroughs.”
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Kupol, who consented to having his photograph taken and said he understood he could face personal blowback for giving a frank assessment, described going to battle with newly drafted soldiers who had never thrown a grenade, who readily abandoned their positions under fire and who lacked confidence in handling firearms.
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His unit withdrew from Soledar in eastern Ukraine in the winter after being surrounded by Russian forces who later captured the city. Kupol recalled how hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers in units fighting alongside his battalion simply abandoned their positions, even as fighters for Russia’s Wagner mercenary group pressed ahead.
Quote
After a year of war, Kupol, a lieutenant colonel, said his battalion is unrecognizable. Of about 500 soldiers, roughly 100 were killed in action and another 400 wounded, leading to complete turnover. Kupol said he was the sole military professional in the battalion, and he described the struggle of leading a unit composed entirely of inexperienced troops.

“I get 100 new soldiers,” Kupol said. “They don’t give me any time to prepare them. They say, ‘Take them into the battle.’ They just drop everything and run. That’s it. Do you understand why? Because the soldier doesn’t shoot. I ask him why, and he says, ‘I’m afraid of the sound of the shot.’ And for some reason, he has never thrown a grenade.
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jaichind
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« Reply #20242 on: March 16, 2023, 10:54:25 AM »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64955537

"Bakhmut: Russian casualties mount but tactics evolve"

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When I ask about Wagner's convict army, he pauses to think and says, "I'll be honest. It's genius. Cruel, immoral, but effective tactics. It worked out. And it's still working in Bakhmut."
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Mopsus
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« Reply #20243 on: March 16, 2023, 10:54:31 AM »

https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1636256856795488258
The past 2 weeks Russia has been losing on average 1k a day not to mention the spike in tank and artillery losses.
In case you didn't know, those are cope numbers.

Even if you cut them in half (which, IMHO, based on visually confirmed losses, the intensity of the fighting, and studies of claimed vs confirmed losses from past wars, probably gets us close to the real figure), this is still devastating and unsustainable in the long term.

Perhaps, but based on the best estimates, the Russians will finally encircle Bakhmut just fifteen short years from now, having lost more men than the US has lost in all of its armed conflicts combined, and how foolish will The West look then.
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« Reply #20244 on: March 16, 2023, 11:02:10 AM »

Poland will be sending 4 jets immediately and the rest as soon as they are ready. This is in addition to the 10 Migs Slovakia plans to send.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #20245 on: March 16, 2023, 11:06:32 AM »

Yes, that Russia is enduring major casualties in this conflict isn't exactly an outlandish claim.

Though the fact also remains they can afford to take significantly more losses than Ukraine.
I’m not really sure if that’s true though. Russia can’t give the war the same total war effort that Ukraine can for various political and military reasons. On top of that a big issue these causalities can cause is that these mobilizations have been deliberately targeting people from poor regions in the Caucuses, Siberia, etc… The reasons for that is Putin doesn’t want to be drafting people who live in Moscow or St Petersburg or any other major cities or urban areas as these areas have more political and economic resources to organize protests against the regime and the war. They keep losing men like this and he’ll have to cross a dangerous personal red line and take drafting people from these places
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #20246 on: March 16, 2023, 11:17:35 AM »

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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #20247 on: March 16, 2023, 11:48:25 AM »

https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1636256856795488258
The past 2 weeks Russia has been losing on average 1k a day not to mention the spike in tank and artillery losses.
In case you didn't know, those are cope numbers.

Even if you cut them in half (which, IMHO, based on visually confirmed losses, the intensity of the fighting, and studies of claimed vs confirmed losses from past wars, probably gets us close to the real figure), this is still devastating and unsustainable in the long term.
Thankfully I put the bootlicker on ignore so I didn’t see his response but unfortunately got to see it through you but to claim Ukraine is making up causality is kinda ironic as they’re estimates are conservative compared to western intelligence assessments of Russian causalities which they had at 200k back in January
I've been operating under the impression that "liquidated" meant "killed in action", because if it means "casualties", then if anything it's probably an undercount, and I doubt they'd do that.
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Damocles
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« Reply #20248 on: March 16, 2023, 12:00:03 PM »

A Ukrainian counteroffensive would likely involve an advance along the Orikhiv-Huliaipole-Velyka Novosilka-Vuhledar-Olenivka line.

Ukrainian armored and mechanized infantry units would advance southwards towards Melitopol, coordinating with local partisan units to dislodge Russian garrisons from the city. With Melitopol liberated and key road connections cut off from the Russians, some Ukrainian units would be tasked to establish a defense perimeter in Melitopol itself, while others would be directed eastwards, towards Berdiansk.

Ukrainian artillery would then bring up HIMARS 227mm, GLSDB, and other artillery systems along the northern shore of the Sea of Azov. These units would be tasked with constantly attacking the Kerch Strait Bridge, exhausting Russian air defense batteries' missiles, and preventing Russian logistical services from resupplying the garrisons in Crimea.

Other Ukrainian units would attempt to cross the Dnipro and take the strategic town of Nova Kakhova, with the principal objective of retaking the northern terminus of the North Crimean Canal. Engineering units would be present to rebuild the dams and water control structures, and deny the Russian garrisons in Crimea any adequate water supplies.

By this point, the better part of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts would be liberated, Russian garrisons in Crimea would be cut off from efficient reinforcement or resupply from the Russian mainland, and Ukrainian anti-air and anti-ship missiles could be brought up to deny the use of the air and water to Russian logistics.

Crimea itself could be placed under siege, and subjected to constant artillery bombardment coming from the Ukrainian side of the Syvash. Principal objectives would be to destroy weapons, ammunition, and refueling depots, hit the maintenance workshops for Russian truck convoys, and water purification and delivery infrastructure. Simultaneously, Ukraine could launch reconnaissance-by-force attacks, to test Russian forces' response capabilities and force them to waste ammunition on comparatively small numbers of infantry.
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Woody
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« Reply #20249 on: March 16, 2023, 12:07:24 PM »

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