Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Woody]

A few hundred pages back Torie said that he could measure how well the war was going for each side by seeing who was posting the most in this thread. By that measure the past week must have been especially dire for the Russians.

Sounds like cope. Ukraine hasn't won any territory since mobilization.

Ukraine retook Kherson after Putin ordered the first round and the second happened during winter and Ukraine has been waiting for spring weather to take advantage of the western tanks they got 🤷‍♂️

This isn't Hoi4.

Couple of dozen tanks isn't going to do anything. Ukraine needs fighter jets and airpower, steady supply of long-range missiles (And I'm talking about those that can penetrate several hundred miles into Western Russia).

[Hindsight was 2020]

A few hundred pages back Torie said that he could measure how well the war was going for each side by seeing who was posting the most in this thread. By that measure the past week must have been especially dire for the Russians.

Sounds like cope. Ukraine hasn't won any territory since mobilization.

Ukraine retook Kherson after Putin ordered the first round and the second happened during winter and Ukraine has been waiting for spring weather to take advantage of the western tanks they got 🤷‍♂️

This isn't Hoi4.

Couple of dozen tanks isn't going to do anything. Ukraine needs fighter jets and airpower, steady supply of long-range missiles (And I'm talking about those that can penetrate several hundred miles into Western Russia).

Accusing me and others of playing video game when it comes to this war is a favorite of yours but it’s kinda ironic when you seem to be under that the only thing that matters is manpower with this muh mobilization simping you got going on. But the fact is that Ukraine has been pretty open about the fact that they were waiting for spring to attack again instead wasting it in a winter offensive like Russia did and is now bitting them in the ass with not being able to encircle Bakmut

[oldtimer]

A few hundred pages back Torie said that he could measure how well the war was going for each side by seeing who was posting the most in this thread. By that measure the past week must have been especially dire for the Russians.

Sounds like cope. Ukraine hasn't won any territory since mobilization.

They drove Russia from all of Kharkiv oblast and
In the same timeframe that your glorious Russian masturbatory aide has failed to take a minor city 2.5km from the front.

Someone’s coping alright

Kharkiv was before mobilization. And during Kherson the mobiks were still in training fields.

It's a 100% fact that Ukrainians have never had a successful offensive against Russian forces with the same or more ratio of troops (Kharkiv/North/Kherson) has either been unmanned or withdrawned. Mobilization has addressed these issues, and that's precisely why Ukrainians will never push Russia out of the country.

But the russians never had and never will have the same ratio of troops, they are always outnumbered, outled, and outgunned since the start.

Take it from me, Russia lost this war the moment they invaded in muddy conditions only with armoured columns with no infantry and no air support, since the morning of Day 1. They had a maximum of 2 days to capture Kiev before the Ukranian infantry moved in to blast their tanks on the busy roads with their anti-tank missiles.  

They have idiots as leaders, they don't mass mobilize, they don't mass produce, they just sit there until it's too late for them to win.

If they ever do a movie about it would inevitably have a scene like this one about russian soldiers moaning about their incompetent government:

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Russian soldiers stop receiving salaries: complaints coming from all over Russia

The conscripts and contract soldiers in Russia are not paid promised salaries, allowances and social benefits.

Source: Vyorstka, a Russian news outlet

Details: According to the calculations of the news outlet, since the beginning of March 2023, the salaries of the servicemen have been delayed or not paid at all in 52 regions of Russia and in occupied Crimea.

[Yeahsayyeah]

The "human wave attacks" are obviously a tactic to save salaries. Now it all makes sense.

[Woody]

Hindsight is 2020: BAKHMUT IS STALINGRAD, WE'RE BLEEDING OUT THE RUSSIANS 7:1, THEY'RE ONLY THERE BECAUSE OF SYMBOLISM.

Reality: (From actual serving AFU soldiers on the ground)

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1639024289700618241?cxt=HHwWgoC93Yr6_b4...

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1639032100585185280
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1639028644172496899

[Hindsight was 2020]

I know you’re a little butthurt right now Bakmut Bob because Ukraine has embarrassed you and your pro-Russia fantasies again but you got to learn to take an L every now and then

[Hindsight was 2020]

The "human wave attacks" are obviously a tactic to save salaries. Now it all makes sense.

That’s not even a joke that legit probably factors into their tactics

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I know you’re a little butthurt right now Bakmut Bob because Ukraine has embarrassed you and your pro-Russia fantasies again but you got to learn to take an L every now and then

I remember reading something the other day about how many Twitter accounts start with pro-Ukraine content and then shift the narrative into more mixed content while saying they are just providing 'legitimate critiques'.

Or, alternatively, they are "Pro-Ukraine" but not Pro-Zelenskyy, despite Zelenskyy having a 90%+ job approval rating.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

...
They have idiots as leaders, they don't mass mobilize, they don't mass produce, they just sit there until it's too late for them to win.

If they ever do a movie about it would inevitably have a scene like this one about russian soldiers moaning about their incompetent government

It started long before this war and it's happening now. Soldiers complain about the lack of equipment and ammunition, Wagner leaders curse the Ministry of Defense with the strongest insults, and Girkin's best friend, Colonel Kvachkov, once tried to blow up one of the key statesmen.

[NOVA Green]

A few hundred pages back Torie said that he could measure how well the war was going for each side by seeing who was posting the most in this thread. By that measure the past week must have been especially dire for the Russians.

Sounds like cope. Ukraine hasn't won any territory since mobilization.

Ukraine retook Kherson after Putin ordered the first round and the second happened during winter and Ukraine has been waiting for spring weather to take advantage of the western tanks they got 🤷‍♂️

This isn't Hoi4.

Couple of dozen tanks isn't going to do anything. Ukraine needs fighter jets and airpower, steady supply of long-range missiles (And I'm talking about those that can penetrate several hundred miles into Western Russia).

There is significantly more than just a couple dozen tanks.

(2) battalions of the Leopard 2A6 tanks
(3) battalions of the older but refurbished Leopard 1A5 tanks.

Toss in:

(1) battalion of M1A1 Abrams

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-is-getting-older-us-abrams-tanks-but-russia-s-soviet-era-tanks-still-won-t-be-a-match-for-them-in-battle/ar-AA18ZW22?

(14) British Challengers with DU shells

(2) battalions of refurbished T-72 tanks from Poland on the way, which does not include the (250) Soviet designed T-72 tanks already provided.

So basically you are talking about the equivalent of 8 1/2 tank battalions on the way, with likely more in the works.

Honestly it's a bit debatable how much impact air power really would make in this war, considering the effectiveness of anti-air systems in both Russian occupied Ukraine, as well as within Free Ukraine, but even there wouldn't be surprised to see more getting coughed up from various former Soviet Bloc countries, if they can get upgraded Western replacements and the US approves reexport to Ukraine.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile in Russia another major fire breaks out....

Could just be another industrial incident with one of the worst records of industrialized countries when it comes to Industrial Hygiene and worker safety protocols or could potentially be yet another sabotage action by dissident Russians opposed to Putin's regime and senseless war in Ukraine.

Who knows, although it will be interesting if Russian opposition cells claim credit, moving beyond typical actions such as destroying railroad tracks for troops and equipment destined for Ukraine or Belaurs, Molotov Cocktails tossed into military recruitment offices, etc...

Russian Factory That Makes Nuclear Missile Engines Catches Fire

A fire has broken out on the territory of a Russian factory that manufactures equipment for the Russian Army, according to state media reports.

Seven people have been rescued from a burning building and firefighters are still searching for the source of the blaze at the Yaroslavl Motor Plant, in Yaroslavl, Russia, which describes itself on its website as one of Russia's largest enterprises producing multi-purpose diesel engines, clutches, gearboxes and spare parts.

Russian blogger and analyst Anatoly Nesmiyan said on his Telegram channel that "something quite serious is on fire" at the factory, though did not elaborate on what that could be. Nesmiyan described the factory as one of the largest manufacturers of engines and gearboxes for equipment belonging to the Russian Army, including engines for Topol-M nuclear missile launchers.

The fire at the Yaroslavl Motor Plant will likely serve as a blow to Putin, who is pushing to ramp up missile production this year. Russia's Defense Ministry said in a statement Tuesday that Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has ordered the doubling of production of precision-guided weapons.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-factory-that-makes-nuclear-missile-engines-catches-fire/ar-AA18ZgZQ?

[Torie]

Down them with drones.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2023/03/24/russia-braces-for-attack-by-50000-ukrainian-kamikaze-drones-seeks-shotguns/?sh=75dcd2886ffc

[jaichind]

LiveUAMap map for Avdiivka shows things turning for the worse for Ukraine there.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1639166784996507650?cxt=HHwWhICwtbPgvr8tA...

[Helsinkian]

They already tried that and failed. Has Medvedev forgotten?

[Woody]

Two Ukrainian soldiers who was hiding under the Azovstal plant during the siege of Mariupol, has been sentenced by the Supreme Court of DPR and under Russian penal code. Supposedly for shooting at civilians during the siege.

Both soldiers received 25 years to strict Russian penal colony.

https://twitter.com/DonbassSegodnya/status/1638928198174924800
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1638941677225123865

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1638720709596786688?s=20

[oldtimer]

I know you’re a little butthurt right now Bakmut Bob because Ukraine has embarrassed you and your pro-Russia fantasies again but you got to learn to take an L every now and then

The problem for them is they never had a Win so they don't know what the difference is from losing.

[Storr]

The Slovak MoD wins at MoD Posting:

https://twitter.com/ozbrojenesily/status/1638946825314127872?s=20

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The Slovak MoD wins at MoD Posting:

https://twitter.com/ozbrojenesily/status/1638946825314127872?s=20

Over a year of worries about the Escalation Factor of delivering the MiGs at all (they could have been delivered by land, among other options), and they ultimately post a video of Ukrainian pilots flying them out of Slovakia.

Did Russia become less angry about the MiG deliveries? Not really, but Slovakia got a fat paycheck. This makes me wonder even more how much of the escalation rhetoric was/is sincere.

[Woody]

Former Ukrainian politician / Russian turned politician since 2014 when he helped hand Crimea over to Russia. Notably the head of Crimea since Russia's 2014 annexation has established a new PMC "Konvoy" - at the moment mostly operating in Kherson Oblast. Aksyonov plans to have it fully ready by summer. It's lead commander is a Wagner curator who operated in Africa.

https://twitter.com/KilledInUkraine/status/1639343556866236418

PMC "Convoy" is a relatively new private military unit. His telegram channel of the same name was created in November last year.

Along with calls to join the PMC of the same name and photos and videos from the front line, philosophical texts about “strong Orthodox Russia” and Ukrainian Satanists, the “victorious people” are also published there ; conspiracy theories about how the Rockefellers bought the water supply system in Ukraine and now "with the help of a special chemical composition, they paralyze those parts of the brain that are responsible for identifying a person."

Formally, Convoy is BARS, a combat army reserve, its members enter into two contracts - one with Convoy, the second with the Ministry of Defense, a former member of this PMC told Important Stories. This allows you to have guaranteed payments in case of injury or death. The interlocutor of "Important stories" received, according to him, about 200 thousand a month, command - 300 thousand. In addition, those who serve in the unit for a year are promised land "in the Crimea or Abkhazia."

"Supply, food, equipment and weapons - at the expense of extra-budgetary funds that the head of the Crimea finds," says Kurlaeva. As follows from her report, the unit has heavy equipment - T-80 and T-90 tanks - and even its own electronic intelligence.

The Convoy training ground is located in the village of Perevalnoye near the Crimea, follows from the information published in one of the chats where volunteers communicate. In this Crimean village in the 80s there was the 165th training center for the training of foreign military personnel. Now exactly the same name - at the training center for the training of snipers in the Crimea.

[NOVA Green]

"Putin's Chef" has a few interesting statements earlier, including apparently raising questions about if Nazis even exist in Ukraine:

“The Bakhmut meat grinder continues,” said Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, head of the Wagner private military group, which has spearheaded the monthslong Russian campaign to conquer the city.

But he added that the Kremlin needed to define its overall goals in Ukraine clearly, and despite the expectations of escalating offensives, he spoke of how to end a war that has exacted a fearsome toll on both nations.

“First of all, we need to decide where we’re going to or where we come to a halt,” Mr. Prigozhin said in an interview posted to the Telegram messaging network on Thursday. “As soon as this is determined absolutely clearly, then it will be clear when the S.V.O. will end,” he said, using the Russian initials for the Kremlin’s term for the invasion it launched 13 months ago, which it calls a “special military operation.”

Mr. Prigozhin — the once-secretive tycoon whose close personal ties to Mr. Putin helped him amass a fortune — has frequently criticized Russian military officials as inept and jealous, complaining that they withhold resources from Wagner. And his boastful social media presence increasingly has elements of pessimism; he suggested recently that Wagner could soon be a spent force and that a Ukrainian offensive could cut off its fighters in Bakhmut.

He has also edged closer to disagreeing publicly with Mr. Putin specifically, as in the suggestion that the war aims are unclear, though he did not cite the Russian leader by name. In his post on Thursday, he said: “I don’t know about the denazification of Ukraine. Are there Nazis there, or aren’t there? I haven’t crawled around in there.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/24/world/europe/ukraine-russia-bakhmut-wagner.html

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

They already tried that and failed. Has Medvedev forgotten?

Medvedev's saying stuff like that for the same reason that Lindsey Graham spouts so much pro-Trump garbage. It's a demonstration of loyalty and powerlessness.

If powerful lackeys show too much spine, independence, or rationality, the strongman they serve might start worrying that they're thinking they could make it on their own, or even turn on their owner. And then they "fall out of a window" or the equivalent. (In the US, they get primaried, at least for now.) By publicly repeating the party line in a way that discredits them to those outside their respective overlord's power-bloc, they both demonstrate their immediate loyalty by obedience and humiliation, and prove that they are so vile they have nowhere else to go.(They'll both do lightning-fast one-eighty's if Putin or Trump actually falls from power, of course, but they need to survive until then.)