Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

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(Based off the 'who's rooting for who world series' meme from when it was Astros v. Braves)

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The Russian soldier mentions he's been injured in the arms and a leg by shrapnel, but can't go to the field hospital because it's full with 1,500 people. Instead, the men in his unit have resorted to injecting themselves with painkillers to keep going.

This is the first one of these intercepted calls released by Ukrainian intelligence where one of the Russian soldiers starts to cry.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1569451673260806145?s=20&t=oyi4hbGf...

Cry and die, b****. But not in that order.

Yeah. You almost feel sorry for a lot of these young conscripts ofc, many of them are simply cannon fodder for the baseless ambitions of a dying old man. That being said at this point in the war I don't think any Russian soldier who isn't actively attempting to desert can claim innocence... Not after everything that has happened.

And the Ukrainians have been generous with the defectors.

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Putin really does not want to knock the hornets' nest, does he? 

Putin just wants to "win," except he seems to still be unable to reconcile the idea of winning with the reality that he doesn't have nearly enough personnel to actually do so, let alone weapons, body armor and vehicles for them. Nor the competency and leadership from his military, but that's a whole other discussion. Maybe before he thought he could outlast Ukraine and let economic realities and waning military aid force Ukraine to sue for peace, but now it's clear the aid isn't going to stop and Ukraine actually is very capable of launching offensives of their own and quickly retaking land, and knows this, which means they won't give up.

Not to mention that even if he were to institute the draft, that it will take more than a year before those newly minted conscript soldiers can be ready to deploy in Ukraine, by which point the war will likely be over -in Ukraine's favor.  And most Russians (I hope) recognize this war doesn't pose an existential threat to the Russian state -Ukraine is not Nazi Germany in 1941 on the eve of Operation Barbarossa, further diminishing the necessity for this drastic measure.     

What would the Russian argument?

"Guys we need more troops to fight the Nazis led by a Jewish President. Yes, we know Ukraine is a small country and we are a military 'superpower' but yeah. Anyway, can you send us more young people to kill for old times sake? Thanks"

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The clowns at the EurAsian Times are now saying that Russia's planes are better, since (F)-22 plus (F)-35 equals (SU) 57.

LINK

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Isbcs  banning Russian "Draft Dodgers" the best move forward for the EU and if so why?

Sounds to me like a mixture of both virtue signaling and attempts to punish "Russia" for Ukraine War under guise of cutting off hard Western cash going directly into Russia.

Surely the EU should recognize the "Refusniks" and welcome them in, as opposed to forcing them to stay home and build a potential rebellion in Russia proper?

The draft dodgers fleeing the forced mobilization are much more likely to identify with dissident political formations and why should the EU turn their back on those who don't want to fight in Mr. Putin's War in Ukraine?

Way way back in the 1960s when the US created the Draft during the War in Vietnam (We didn't quite call it a special operation initially), there were all sorts of innovative ways of dodging the draft, even for those without all sorts of deferments that the wealthy and well connected had.

We now are seeing stories in Russian Social Media, which almost represent stories I learned as a child regarding how parents didn't want to send their kids to Vietnam.

In Russia, googling "how to break your arm" searches are spiking... spouses are threatening to break their husbands bones so they are disabled and not have to go to war.

Meanwhile, for a musical interlude the great late Phil Ochs (Legendary American Folk Singer at the height of the Vietnam War).

Courtesy of NOVA GREEN PIRATE ATLAS RADIO

Draft Dodger Rag

They might be overcorrecting for the migrant crisis issues?

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More details on the conscription office shooting:

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1574434996630261762

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Why would the US do this? It's against our strategic interest. Now all the European governments probably hate us.

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Nope, there's absolutely no way the Russians would blow up a pipe that they get no money out of for the foreseeable future to fracture western unity!

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Final results of the referendums are in.

https://twitter.com/jacksonhinklle/status/1574866062125895680

lol k. Reminds me of that South Vietnam election where Diem's ego made him give himself 138% of the vote.

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Seemed relevant.

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Seemed relevant.

Tbf every time Woodbury posts some variation of “Ukraine defeat is coming!” Something horrible happens to Russia so I say keep up the jinxing Woodbury

I mean with the quality of the Russian Armed Forces would we really be able to tell the difference?

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https://twitter.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/1575152961612877828

Russia:

With the ruble devaluation are we sure they could afford it?

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It's hard for me to be excited about this. Every acre Ukraine takes back makes it more likely Vlad will go nuclear.

Ukrainian tanks could be rolling into Moscow and you would argue this lol.

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The Ukrainian Ministry Of Defense is sh**tposting again:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1575173225197158407?cxt=HHwWjoCqufzskdwrAAAA

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Unambiguous talk is essential when responding to belligerent nuclear powers. I would be concerned if the Biden Administration wasn't making it clear that Putin would be killed immediately if he uses any nuclear weapons.

One of the few good things Trump said in the White House was when he made clear that he would annihilate the Kim dynasty of North Korea if he started a nuclear war. Of course brain-rotted liberals were offended by that then and the hypocritical conservatives that supported Trump then will hate Biden for this now, but that's a reflection of American foolishness. In reality, both were correct to respond unambiguously.

Should Harry Truman have been killed? Let me guess, that was different.

Also, all Putin has to do to respond to this is to have a trigger that nukes will fire on the event of his assasination.

America was waging a defensive war in World War II so yes, that actually is very different.

Initially yes, but not by late 1945. We were on the offensive and looking for total victory, not just a return to prewar borders. Anyway if you ask the Russians they will give you some mental gymnastics about being the "defenders" of people in Donbas. Sure it's a load of crap, but the thing is they are earnest and actually believe it.

"pre war borders" (prior to demon nation entering unjustified war, ofc) were all of southeast and east Asia. Giving Japan all of Asia as an empire is anti-imperialism, though. Good thinking Vatnik!

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Meanwhile, despite the fact that Lyman will likely fall within the next 48-72 hours. as Russian troops desperately attempt to flee under heavily artillery bombardment, while Mr. Putin declares "no retreat", Ukrainian offensive operations continue to drive forward elsewhere within the Northeastern Front:

Hey, at the very least Putin has signed some pieces of paper declaring Ukrainian territory - of which at least parts are actually occupied by Russian troops at the moment - to be oblasts of the Russian Federation. That must count for something, right? Right?


(Annexing territory that you don't even de facto control is a pretty lame-ass low-energy move IMO.
Orange: Territory formally claimed by Russia.
Red line: Territory actually controlled by Russia atm.

)

It looks like he might even lose control of two of the four capitals soon lol.

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LOL Dark Brandon sent Dark Megan to teach Ukrainian MOD:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1576248108690079745?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctw...

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China basically has said that if Russia uses a nuke then they're done with Russia too and will stop buying from them, as has India...so yeah if that happens Russia's economy is absolutely done.

The Chinese strategy through this is blindingly obvious. They are consolidating their Anti-Imperialist Empire in preparation for Cold War 2.0

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Does anyone find it interesting that Putin's screed on the 30th made no strong mention of the traditional appeals to the Russian nation in times of war? While he called on the Russian people to patriotically unite behind the war effort, it was on the heels of a bizarre rant on history I can't imagine people outside of Russophile telegram chats and message boards care about (and despite it all, internet ultranationalists do not represent the Russian majority). Including indecipherable ravings on an Anglo-Saxon satanic conspiracy to implement "perversions" and such nonsense.

I find it hard to see the retreating, starving, front soldiers in Donbass feeling any attachment to this, much apathetic new conscripts or ethnic minorities. Now many of the Russian soldiers in Ukraine are enthusiastic bandits and murders, but this is not always true (especially with a wave of new conscripts). I refuse to believe that this kind of pseudo-historical lecture is an effective rallying call.

Stalin's speech at the Red Army Parade in Moscow in 1941 was a monumental moment in the Soviet War effort. Now obviously in 1941 the military situation for the Russian state was very different that it is now, Zelenskyy is not knocking on the door of Moscow, but it is important to examine, Russia is losing now and it was losing then. Stalin did not pursue into a bizarre, barely coherent rant on Germany's history or make deranged ideological proclamations (although obviously, Western Liberalism is not evil, and Nazism is). Stalin's is quite a good speech (and he was not someone who liked speechmaking), I think it's a good comparison. Stalin, despite the desperate situation for the Red Army actually makes you believe that it is in fact the Germans who are on the brink of total collapse and makes a real appeal to the Soviet layperson. Putin cannot manage even this, nor does he even try to tell the Russian people that the military situation will improve, he continues in fact to deny that Russia is even at war while delving into the details of an incoherent narrative. Hollow words for the average front soldier. Hollower still with the reality that Russia is actively losing territory they are claiming as sovereign territory.

I have listened to Putin often. I think this is very important (those of his American apologists who are merely ignorant should do well to do as I do). I listened to his speech on February the 24th in his weird small office, and now on September 20th. While his content has always been totally toxic, there has been a change. It seems Putin has gone over, or at least conceding to the "Z-Patriots" camp, those who have always taken the ultranationalist, escalatory, line such as Alexandr Dugin and Igor Girkin in both action and content. He has annexed "Novorossiya" he has effectively ordered a general mobilization. I think in February and in some of the following months, his speeches were certainly more outwardly stable than they are now, and with the backdrop of these nonsensical proclamations and mobilization, it certainly seems so. Vladimir Putin is the most dangerous man on Earth.

And one last note, it is just rich to see Macron going on the airwaves to try and desperately rationalize Putin's actions somehow. I don't know why people are so desperate to find a reasonable explanation for his actions besides the fact that he and his associates are totally deranged and out of touch. I further don't understand why people (the same who said Putin would never invade, or did it because of "NATO expansion) are desperate to give Putin an off ramp or a way to "save face." Absurd.

Let me just start out by re-stating that the invasion of Ukraine is morally wrong. 

However,

No.

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https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1577006943499350016?t=BS1Y6bgBf2VS2MUQsf3...

Not so long ago...

"Omg I beg Mr. Musk plz give starlink"

Not so long ago...

"Omg I beg Mr. Putin plz give check"

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Credit to r/NCD

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Russia's 2022 Q2 GDP YoY came in at -4.1%.  For 2022 Q1 which was mostly before the war it came in at 3.5%.  Given that the recent PMI numbers are coming in higher than expected it seems 2022 total GDP will be much more likely to be -4%.  The current investment banking estimate is around -5.7% as opposed to -10% back in the Spring which I expect to converge to my estimate of around -4% over time.  If so due to base effects and impact of mobilization I do expect Russia's 2024 GDP to be worse than the current expected -2.5% (more like -3% or -3.5%)

Everybody: Sharing war news, talking about potential military actions

Jaichind: Complaining about how negative GDP rates impact his long term investments

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(Bloomberg) --The Swedish Security Service stated that the detonations caused the damage to the Nord Stream pipeline system in the country’s exclusive economic zone.
The completed investigation has “strengthened the suspicions of serious sabotage,” the Security Service said in a statement.

During the investigation, certain seizures have been made from the crime scene, it added.

"How will this effect global oil supply chains and consequently my long-term investments in European currency markets. Discuss with maps."
-Jaichind, probably

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Whew

I don't see what Russian homophobic propaganda has to do with Cuba's referendum, but ok.

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https://twitter.com/TheRealYenChen/status/1578613444453941248

It was NAFO all along.