Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1638946708854800384?s=20

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

That's direct video evidence that should be playing in Putin's war crime trial someday hopefully. How were the children gotten back to Ukraine though I wonder? Was there some agreement between the two-sides on this issue to return them?

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

That's direct video evidence that should be playing in Putin's war crime trial someday hopefully. How were the children gotten back to Ukraine though I wonder? Was there some agreement between the two-sides on this issue to return them?

As far as I heard, they were semi-illegally taken back to Free Ukraine by volunteers.

[Storr]

Hopefully this is one step closer to a unified (mainland?) European military:

https://twitter.com/MaxBoot/status/1639296771405893633?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1639515935580225537
British intelligence is reporting that Russia has stalled its offensive operations in Bakmut and shifting focus elsewhere

[CumbrianLefty]

Were all those Woody posts really in vain?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Were all those Woody posts really in vain?

Yes

https://mobile.twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1639621558191927297

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1639655739261157376
Red Velvet in shambles

[lfromnj]

You can hear the speech on mute because she's Italian.

[Woody]

Were all those Woody posts really in vain?

Yes

https://mobile.twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1639621558191927297

Wow, I'm so owned.. let's hold a city that's surrounded by all sides and way past it's expiration date to own Woodbury. Are the guys that are currently fighting there, who are also advocating for withdrawal, also "butthurt" as you say in your own words?

[Hindsight was 2020]

And not to shock anyone but the draw down in Bakmut is also a signal of the end of Russia’s counteroffensive. Lost tens of thousands of men and thousands of equipment for practically no change of territory.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1639445348828557315

[Torie]

"Culminating" means ending? Who knew? I guess English is not ISW's first language.

Anyway, what both sides are putting out at the moment mostly seems to be disinformation. A case in point is the "leak" that U's counteroffensive is going to be centered in Bakhmut itself, sort of like that red dot "storm" on Jupiter that never seems to fade away.

I still don't see how a U offensive will work out well without air superiority myself. 

[Hindsight was 2020]

"Culminating" means ending? Who knew? I guess English is not ISW's first language.

Anyway, what both sides are putting out at the moment mostly seems to be disinformation. A case in point is the "leak" that U's counteroffensive is going to be centered in Bakhmut itself, sort of like that red dot "storm" on Jupiter that never seems to fade away.

I still don't see how a U offensive will work out well without air superiority myself. 

Was that even a leak? I thought that was just Prigozhin making a baseless statement in order to convince Putin to side with him over his power struggle with Shoigu

[Torie]

"Culminating" means ending? Who knew? I guess English is not ISW's first language.

Anyway, what both sides are putting out at the moment mostly seems to be disinformation. A case in point is the "leak" that U's counteroffensive is going to be centered in Bakhmut itself, sort of like that red dot "storm" on Jupiter that never seems to fade away.

I still don't see how a U offensive will work out well without air superiority myself. 

Was that even a leak? I thought that was just Prigozhin making a baseless statement in order to convince Putin to side with him over his power struggle with Shoigu

Here is the source. My instinct is that it is disinformation.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/23/europe/bakhmut-ukraine-counter-offensive-intl/index.html

[Hindsight was 2020]

"Culminating" means ending? Who knew? I guess English is not ISW's first language.

Anyway, what both sides are putting out at the moment mostly seems to be disinformation. A case in point is the "leak" that U's counteroffensive is going to be centered in Bakhmut itself, sort of like that red dot "storm" on Jupiter that never seems to fade away.

I still don't see how a U offensive will work out well without air superiority myself. 

Was that even a leak? I thought that was just Prigozhin making a baseless statement in order to convince Putin to side with him over his power struggle with Shoigu

Here is the source. My instinct is that it is disinformation.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/23/europe/bakhmut-ukraine-counter-offensive-intl/index.html

Ohhh okay I read that statement as they were going to do a localized counterattack in Bakmut more so than saying that Bakmut was going to be the center of the general counterattack. Because I can see a counterattack happening and Russia does have its flanks exposed and with all the drama with Wagner a good penetration could cause a route

[rc18]

"Culminating" means ending? Who knew? I guess English is not ISW's first language.

Culminating point is a specific concept in military strategy expounded by Carl von Clausewitz. It means that a force is no longer capable of successfully carrying out its operations; the threat from their strategy has peaked.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culminating_point

[Woody]

Your gold standard ISW from the end of December 2022..

"Culminated Russian forces could continue to carry out assaults but would be very unlikely to make operationally significant gains."

Two weeks later Soledar falls and Wagner advances north/crosses the Bakhmutivka, and throughout the next weeks take the majority of the city.

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1608285680526036993

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-says-russia-to-deploy-tactical-nuclear-weapons-in-belarus-reports/

"Putin says Russia to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, state media report"

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-says-russia-to-deploy-tactical-nuclear-weapons-in-belarus-reports/

"Putin says Russia to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, state media report"

Put nukes in a country whose leader grip on power is shaky at best. 12D chest from Putin again

[UWS]

According to this video, Ukraine has already mobilized 60,000 troops for the spring counteroffensive

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47B-wvyrB2A

[jaichind]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65075952

"No Ukraine offensive without more weapons – Zelensky"

I was confused about why Ukraine publicly told everyone, including the Russians, about their upcoming offensive.  At least this statement now makes more sense.  The goal here is to get more weapons.  It is not to say there is no offensive.  There very might well be one.  But the point of telling everyone about it is to put pressure on the collective West to send more weapons.

[pppolitics]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65075952

"No Ukraine offensive without more weapons – Zelensky"

I was confused about why Ukraine publicly told everyone, including the Russians, about their upcoming offensive.  At least this statement now makes more sense.  The goal here is to get more weapons.  It is not to say there is no offensive.  There very might well be one.  But the point of telling everyone about it is to put pressure on the collective West to send more weapons.

More likely, it's to send mixed signals to confuse the enemy.

[Torie]

https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-says-russia-to-deploy-tactical-nuclear-weapons-in-belarus-reports/

"Putin says Russia to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, state media report"

If Putin can put tactical nukes in Belarus, why can't the US put tactical nukes in Ukraine? What's good for the goose is good for the gander. Putin's move seems ill advised from even his own sociopathic mindset. It kind of reeks of desperation actually.

Hey Biden, exploit this to expedite Ukraine achieving air superiority if you get the drift.

[CanadianDemocrat]

Were all those Woody posts really in vain?

It has now been 8.5 months since Russia took a major city in July.

[The Mikado]

https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-says-russia-to-deploy-tactical-nuclear-weapons-in-belarus-reports/

"Putin says Russia to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, state media report"

Put nukes in a country whose leader grip on power is shaky at best. 12D chest from Putin again

In all fairness to Putin (something I don't say a lot), Russia would have sole possessions of the nuclear codes that make the things useable. Something most people don't mention in the historical point about Ukraine and Kazakhstan giving up the nukes they inherited from the Soviets in the 1990s is that those nukes were useless to them because the Kremlin were the only ones with the launch codes.