Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread
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Author Topic: Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread  (Read 826234 times)
Woody
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« Reply #20200 on: March 15, 2023, 06:29:48 AM »
« edited: March 15, 2023, 06:33:38 AM by Woody »





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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #20201 on: March 15, 2023, 06:37:16 AM »





I wonder, when the history books are written about this war in the coming decades, what will be called the biggest mistakes by UA and RU high command, respectively.
We can't guess with complete confidence, but it might be fun to speculate.
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Woody
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« Reply #20202 on: March 15, 2023, 06:38:31 AM »



Quote
Kyiv hopes for a breakthrough as Western weapons pour in, but the battle over Bakhmut might sap its reserves
Quote
Bled by the monthslong defense of the eastern city of Bakhmut, the Ukrainian military is training tens of thousands of fresh troops, including in camps operated abroad by the U.S. and European allies, for three new army corps expected to take part in the spring advances.

Kyiv is also receiving a large influx of Western-made heavy weapons, including Leopard 2 tanks, Bradley and Stryker fighting vehicles and Paladin and Archer self-propelled howitzers, replenishing the equipment it lost over a year that saw the most intense fighting in Europe since World War II. It is the first time Ukraine is deploying such Western-made tanks and infantry fighting vehicles to the battlefield.
Quote
Ukraine is feeling growing pressure to show results on the battlefield, as Russia girds for a long war and President Vladimir Putin bets that Western willingness to provide military and financial support to Kyiv won’t endure.
Quote
While Ukrainian leaders seek to expel Russia by force from all the territories it occupies, they also understand that the success—or failure—of the coming offensive will determine Kyiv’s hand in any negotiations that may be eventually imposed by Ukraine’s Western partners. “To be strong in any talks, Ukraine must be strong on the battlefield. That’s the way to just peace,” Mr. Zelensky said last month. “Let’s de-occupy the maximum of what we can.”
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #20203 on: March 15, 2023, 06:56:43 AM »

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Woody
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« Reply #20204 on: March 15, 2023, 08:31:00 AM »
« Edited: March 15, 2023, 08:34:12 AM by Woody »

The Khromove - Bakhmut road is so dangerous and compromised that even RPGs are in range. Disabled a Ukrainian BTR-4E:


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jaichind
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« Reply #20205 on: March 15, 2023, 10:25:53 AM »

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Business/wireStory/german-arms-industry-seeks-clarity-ukraine-weapons-orders-97872311

"German arms industry seeks clarity on Ukraine weapons orders"

The core issue would be "hey if I have to invest a lot of money building arms production capacity and in a year or two the war is over am I going to be left high and dry with no more orders and I will take massive losses"
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #20206 on: March 15, 2023, 10:30:45 AM »


I guess we shall see soon enough if this is mere bluffing.

Well if the word "refutes" has actually been used correctly, then no it isn't.

That's probably not the case, though.
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jaichind
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« Reply #20207 on: March 15, 2023, 12:54:20 PM »

The news on Credit Suisse is getting more ominous by the hour.  It could come to it going under or needing to be broken up.  Either way, I can see a significant effort and resources to bail out Credit Suisse or deal with the blast radius.  If it goes that way I wonder if it will occur in the minds of the collective West leaders "maybe we need to spend a teensy-weensy less money on Ukraine"?
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #20208 on: March 15, 2023, 02:03:19 PM »

The news on Credit Suisse is getting more ominous by the hour.  It could come to it going under or needing to be broken up.  Either way, I can see a significant effort and resources to bail out Credit Suisse or deal with the blast radius.  If it goes that way I wonder if it will occur in the minds of the collective West leaders "maybe we need to spend a teensy-weensy less money on Ukraine"?

Quite the opposite.

If there is a recession, high government spending is a positive thing for the economy, to support aggregate demand and hasten recovery. Whereas if the economy is good and there is inflation, then higher government spending is not so good for the economy, because higher aggregate demand will tend to increase the pressure on prices to rise.

If there is a recession, hopefully we can immediately put the newly unemployed back to work producing artillery shells for Ukraine, much as vast increases in armaments production finally brought the Great Depression to an end more than 80 years ago.
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Logical
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« Reply #20209 on: March 15, 2023, 02:21:01 PM »

The news on Credit Suisse is getting more ominous by the hour.  It could come to it going under or needing to be broken up.  Either way, I can see a significant effort and resources to bail out Credit Suisse or deal with the blast radius.  If it goes that way I wonder if it will occur in the minds of the collective West leaders "maybe we need to spend a teensy-weensy less money on Ukraine"?
Military aid to Ukraine has little to do with bailouts. Although applying a few M31 rockets at Switzerland would certainly solve a lot of problems for everyone.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #20210 on: March 15, 2023, 02:32:12 PM »

The news on Credit Suisse is getting more ominous by the hour.  It could come to it going under or needing to be broken up.  Either way, I can see a significant effort and resources to bail out Credit Suisse or deal with the blast radius.  If it goes that way I wonder if it will occur in the minds of the collective West leaders "maybe we need to spend a teensy-weensy less money on Ukraine"?
Not happening no matter how much you want it to
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #20211 on: March 15, 2023, 04:33:51 PM »

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Woody
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« Reply #20212 on: March 15, 2023, 05:02:02 PM »

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Woody
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« Reply #20213 on: March 15, 2023, 05:08:23 PM »
« Edited: March 15, 2023, 05:32:39 PM by Woody »

Ukrainians attacked with armor and infantry around Orikhiv today (Zaporizhzhia region), predictably it went like the tune of Russians in Vuhledar. When I first heard of this I was skeptical it was an attack, rather some sort of DRG or reconnaissance, but this was in fact a full-fledged attack. But I don't think it was an attempt at an offensive (like some Russian-telegrams were boasting about), rather the AFU trying going for some positional battles or testing waters.

This is I belive taking the South is going to be impossible, as long as there is no considerable air power to support the ground units, having to travel several kilometers before they even reach enemy positions. Either side is going to get blown up the moment they get spotted by drones, and have enough artillery shells to last.

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Woody
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« Reply #20214 on: March 15, 2023, 05:14:34 PM »



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Woody
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« Reply #20215 on: March 15, 2023, 05:17:56 PM »

War_cube_ supports my theory:

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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #20216 on: March 15, 2023, 05:19:26 PM »


Wonder how much longer Putin will tolerate this guy airing his grievances
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Woody
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« Reply #20217 on: March 15, 2023, 05:31:42 PM »

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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #20218 on: March 15, 2023, 05:39:05 PM »
« Edited: March 15, 2023, 05:51:36 PM by Middle-aged Europe »



According to Wikipedia, the only NATO countries currently having the MiG-29 in active service are Poland and Bulgaria. Perhaps some of the planes are supposed to be becoming from former users' storage depots, like Slovakia who had only retired their last MiG-29s in 2022?

Most of the Polish MiGs have an interesting history btw, since they have - so far - served in three different air forces, none of them the Soviet/Russian one though. They originally were the pride of the East German air force and were inherited after reunification by the Federal Republic's air force, who continued to operate them, due to the MiG-29 being a fairly modern fighter aircraft at the time (somewhat equivalent to a American F-16). In the early 2000s they were then replaced by the newly introduced Eurofighter Typhoon and subsequently donated to the air force of the new NATO member Poland. A single MiG-29 remained in Germany and is now on display at the German air force museum in Berlin.
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jaichind
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« Reply #20219 on: March 15, 2023, 06:26:24 PM »

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11862805/Bakhmut-Ukrainian-soldiers-admit-just-getting-killed-defend-city.html

"'I know I'm being sent to my death': Ukrainian soldiers admit 'we are just getting killed' as they defend Bakhmut...and say Russia can already 'taste victory'"
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Storr
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« Reply #20220 on: March 15, 2023, 06:51:55 PM »



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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #20221 on: March 15, 2023, 06:53:47 PM »



The Dutch would know a thing or two about the sea. They've had to battle the sea to be able to have their own country.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #20222 on: March 15, 2023, 06:56:05 PM »

Why does it matter to you WHY India is buying Russian oil? The fact is that they are buying tons of it and that is great to give Russia a way out of the sanctions!

What is exactly that you’re bragging about? Uhh India is helping Russia but it’s not because they like like Russia, they still like us better. Is international geopolitics like middle school to you people or something?

It’s so fascinating to see how most people here tend to frame everything under a morality or friends logic lmao. The other dude was posting some irrelevant map about what powerless average people abroad think of the US.

Newsflash: there isn’t morality OR true “friendship” in geopolitics. Everyone is driven by their self-interests. They can be directed towards different things simultaneously and sometimes may be even misguided internal strategies, but no ones does anything only because they have more personal friendship with one country more than they have with another.

No, of course not. Indians have always been world-renowned for haggling, so they aren't making decisions based on friendship or feelings. The fact that the Indian government calculated that it was the best course of action to order its buyers to buy Russian oil at a price cap the western countries imposed, which effectively forces the Russians to sell the oil at barely any profit, means they're happy to let the Russians suffer if they save some foreign exchange. The fact that the Indian government ordered its buyers not to use Chinese Yuan to buy Russian oil out of distrust of China - and directed them to use what is effectively a sovereign-backed US Dollar-based stablecoin instead - also means they would rather perpetuate US financial hegemony than enjoy whatever benefit that might exist with trading in Chinese Yuan. Nothing wrong with that, but it disproves any notion that the Global South is coalescing around Russia in its fight against western hegemony.

Depends on what you consider “siding with Russia” because the meaning of that seems to change around here depending on what’s more convenient.

I’m tired of hearing here that neutrality is impossible in this situation of aggression and that it is by default a “Pro-Russia” position. But when it’s undeniably pointed the neutrality of global south countries in this conflict, you shift the narrative to Global South isn’t getting behind Russia because they’re neutral, it’s “only business” as you mention for India.

You can only pick one narrative without entering a contradiction. If western leaders weren’t concerned about where the global south stands in this this conflict, you wouldn’t hear the stuff that leaders like Macron talk very publicly about here:



Macron is also a f@cking idiot with the political instincts of a demented walrus.

Why is he? For voicing the exact stuff I’ve always been voicing here when you probably think it’s not convenient to do so from a Western perspective to even acknowledge the existence of a Global South?

In that case you still recognize how the Global South neutrality DID influence the economic resilience from Russia during the war. And in that case you should agree with Macron and me that the West should try to please the South and engage in better relationships through heavier investment on infrastructure. Like China does.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #20223 on: March 15, 2023, 07:05:31 PM »

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Storr
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« Reply #20224 on: March 15, 2023, 07:06:47 PM »

This confirms what everyone already knew about Russia's intentions in Moldova. But the fact such information was found in a leaked internal Russian memo is noteworthy.





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