Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Putin visiting Mariupol, inspecting the reconstruction:
[snip]

How is Ukrainian media taking all this?

[jaichind]

Putin visiting Mariupol, inspecting the reconstruction:
[snip]

How is Ukrainian media taking all this?

Most likely

[jaichind]

Putin drives himself in Mariupol.  I am impressed.
https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1637406543896346625

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1637426567193214976
There definitely seems to be a renewed optimism around Ukraine’s chances of holding Bakmut

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1637426567193214976
There definitely seems to be a renewed optimism around Ukraine’s chances of holding Bakmut

I imagine the time of the year must have some impact on Ukrainian optimism here, considering that early spring/late winter seems to be when the ground is particularly muddy?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

What’s the most realistic (as in likelihood of happening) path to this conflict ending with minimal future bloodshed?

Korean style ceasefire

Arguably the most important difference between the previous ceasefire in Ukraine and the Korean-style ceasefire is the presence of foreign troops on both sides. Hard to see Western governments suddenly becoming willing to deploy troops in Ukraine given their reluctance w.r.t. weaker security guarantees.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1637426567193214976
There definitely seems to be a renewed optimism around Ukraine’s chances of holding Bakmut

I imagine the time of the year must have some impact on Ukrainian optimism here, considering that early spring/late winter seems to be when the ground is particularly muddy?

I don’t think that means much in Bakmut as Russia seems to be more reliant on artillery and infantry attacks than using tanks or mechanized vehicles. It seems the renewed optimism from Western Intelligence and the ISW is that Ukraine’s favorable Kia ratios along with Russia’s wave tactics are catching up and that Russia is on the verge of exhausting its forces there before they can complete an encirclement

[jaichind]

The Credit Suisse rescue talks are still ongoing.  But one thing is clear.  Credit Suisse is basically bankrupt and if there is no deal there will be a big blowup when the markets open.  One funny thing about Credit Suisse's implosion is that the major economy most shielded from the fallout would be Russia thanks to the financial sanctions imposed last year. Russia now has almost zero exposure to Credit Suisse.  The various financial sanctions on Russia ended up being a de facto firewall to protect Russia from Credit Suisse's fallout.

To be fair Russia will not completely escape.  A Credit Suisse implosion will clearly lead to a collective West economic recession which will drive down raw material prices to the detriment of Russia.  In such a scenario Russia will need for PRC and India demand to hold up to minimize damage.

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-is-racing-to-arm-its-russian-borders-can-it-find-the-weapons-eastern-edge-military-leaders-james-j-townsend-jr-us-one-billion-citizens-army-europe

"NATO is racing to arm its Russian borders. Can it find the weapons?"

Seems like this buildup will require a lot of upfront capital.

But the process could get tricky. Why? Because moving so quickly, even given a month, requires lots of people, equipment and training — and lots of money.

And to find that money will run counter to the need to recapitalize the financial system.  The only way out to do both will be imposing more inflation tax on the population of the collective West.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1637428886437756934
https://mobile.twitter.com/hdevreij/status/1637483713314398209
I seriously hope that if it does come to pass that Ukraine actually wins the battle of Bakmut that they didn’t sacrifice too much

[Woody]

Putin visiting Mariupol, inspecting the reconstruction:
[snip]

How is Ukrainian media taking all this?

Don't know. Malding probably.

This is the first time I believe Putin has visited his newly acquired territories, with the exception of Crimea of course.

[pppolitics]

Putin visiting Mariupol, inspecting the reconstruction:
[snip]

How is Ukrainian media taking all this?

Don't know. Malding probably.

This is the first time I believe Putin has visited his newly acquired territories, with the exception of Crimea of course.

SirWoodbury

What is on Россия-1 (Russia-1) right now?

[windjammer]

Are you being optimistic about the Ukraine counteroffensive?

Honestly I am. I have the feeling the Ukrainians & the Americans are preparing something great

[CumbrianLefty]

What is "malding"?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is "malding"?

Online slang. This is what its core meaning is.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Are you being optimistic about the Ukraine counteroffensive?

Honestly I am. I have the feeling the Ukrainians & the Americans are preparing something great

Personally, I'm kind of uncertain if I should feel optimistic or pessimistic. I do strongly, strongly expect Russia to eventually take Bakhmut, for at least some time. I hope I'm wrong.

[jaichind]

https://www.rmf24.pl/raporty/raport-wojna-z-rosja/news-polski-ambasador-wywolal-burze-padly-slowa-o-wojnie-z-rosja,nId,6664830#crp_state=1

Polish ambassader to France says that if Ukraine loses the war then Poland will enter the conflict

[DavidB.]

Putin visiting Mariupol, inspecting the reconstruction:
https://twitter.com/Trollstoy88/status/1637365838314364929

You're now posting stuff by Nazi accounts I see?

[CanadianDemocrat]

Are you being optimistic about the Ukraine counteroffensive?

Honestly I am. I have the feeling the Ukrainians & the Americans are preparing something great

6 months ago I was worried about the war being a perpetual stalemate, with the Ukrainians holding the Russians back, but not able to launch counteroffensives. Then came the Ukrainian counteroffensives that liberated Kherson and Kharkiv. I have stopped underestimating the Ukrainian army and overestimating the Russian army.

The Russians have only advanced 2.5 miles a month in the Bakhmut area, while they lost Kherson and Kharkiv.  

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Update from previous post: Ukrainian commander of the 46th Airmobile Brigade was demoted after he talked to Washington Post about how grim the situation really is. Ukrainian war journalist, Yuri Butusov, even defended him for this. The now former commander "Kupol" handed a resignation letter after being demoted.

Please Zelensky stans, defend this:


https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/16/7393733/

Please Putin stans, defend this:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1634622006325911553

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Knowing what we know at the moment, what is the likelihood that Mariupol is in Russian hands six months from now?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.rmf24.pl/raporty/raport-wojna-z-rosja/news-polski-ambasador-wywolal-burze-padly-slowa-o-wojnie-z-rosja,nId,6664830#crp_state=1

Polish ambassader to France says that if Ukraine loses the war then Poland will enter the conflict

If Poland enters the conflict, does this entail them getting NATO protection?

[Dereich]

https://www.rmf24.pl/raporty/raport-wojna-z-rosja/news-polski-ambasador-wywolal-burze-padly-slowa-o-wojnie-z-rosja,nId,6664830#crp_state=1

Polish ambassader to France says that if Ukraine loses the war then Poland will enter the conflict

If Poland enters the conflict, does this entail them getting NATO protection?

Article 5

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Poland going to war would not constitute an armed attack requiring self defense. There would be no treaty obligations against it. They could call them all to consultation if they felt their "territorial integrity, political independence or security" were threatened, but that's it. I'm sure it would be understood that NATO would not stand by if the Russians tried to conquer Poland, but it wouldn't be out of treaty obligations.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.rmf24.pl/raporty/raport-wojna-z-rosja/news-polski-ambasador-wywolal-burze-padly-slowa-o-wojnie-z-rosja,nId,6664830#crp_state=1

Polish ambassader to France says that if Ukraine loses the war then Poland will enter the conflict

If Poland enters the conflict, does this entail them getting NATO protection?

Article 5

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Poland going to war would not constitute an armed attack requiring self defense. There would be no treaty obligations against it. They could call them all to consultation if they felt their "territorial integrity, political independence or security" were threatened, but that's it. I'm sure it would be understood that NATO would not stand by if the Russians tried to conquer Poland, but it wouldn't be out of treaty obligations.

Ah. That's what I suspected.

[BG-NY]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1637659241078046720?s=46