Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Damocles]

Ethnic minorities? As in Russians?

I'm a bit skeptical of that.

Ashkenazi Jews as well as Poles. Also Gypsies.

[Damocles]

Odessa in the SW part of Ukraine is now getting attacked by Russia.

So it’s an attempted annexation, then. Putin lied, millions will die.

[Damocles]

[Damocles]

The most tragic part of all of this is that the west could have easily prevented this and chose not to. If there's any justice in history Biden will be remembered in the same breath as Chamberlain. We are hoping hard for the best.

These situations are not at all comparable. There’s no analogue to the Munich Agreement, for one.

[Damocles]

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1496716481652043776

Based.

[Damocles]

Some users on this forum defending Russia could go to the Olympics for mental gymnastics.

[Damocles]

I know this is small potatoes in the scale of the conflict, and that all Russia’s justifications for war are fabricated.

But Putin’s claim that he plans to ‘denazify’ Ukraine are particularly galling when you acknowledge that Zelensky is the one of only two Jewish heads of state in Europe*, and lost family in the Holocaust no less.

*(Latvia being the other).

F#%k, what a gut-punch. Imagine losing family members to an apocalyptic genocide, then being called a Nazi, and baselessly accused of committing a genocide yourself.

[Damocles]

Where’s Gorby?

[Damocles]

Sadly it does seem that much of the west is simply not prepared to do the right thing if it's not also the easy thing. Yes, the sanctions necessary to dent Russian resolve will increase gas prices. I'll pay whatever gas prices I need to save the lives of innocent Ukrainians as well as potential future victims of Russian aggression. This is bigger than personal convenience.

Would be nice if we didn't have to depend so much on gas in the first place. We could have been less prone to sh#%t like this if we weren't automobile-centric. Our car dependency is now a national security issue.

[Damocles]

This is like the Mujahideen in Soviet-Afghan war.

[Damocles]

The Russian allegations of Ukraine being a "Nazi Country" have a real chance of sticking in the nonaligned countries if Ukraine/Poland don't take issue with this.

LOL. As if Russia doesn't have a neo-Nazi problem? Hello Kettle, it's Pot!

[Damocles]

Yes, the authoritarians in Nigeria and India love Russia irrespective of right or left just for the very fact Russia is aggressive and hegemonic, but Ukraine isn't making it easier to win hearts and minds with making the coloureds sit in the back of the bus if there is a bus at all.

[citation needed]

[Damocles]

Russia is finding out the hard way that its 'partnership without limits' with China isn't all it cracked up to be:

It's almost like China and Russia have diverging political interests in Central Asia, and China lays claim to Tannu Tuva as well as Khabarovskiy and Primorskiy Krai regions. Their "partnership" was founded on mutual disdain for Western institutions, not any actual substantive principles of cooperation.

[Damocles]

Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!

[Damocles]

Based based based.

[Damocles]

I think this war has demonstrated that artillery is still the king of the battlefield. Sure, you have spotting drones, gun-laying radar, laser-guided munitions, and so on, but gun, rocket, and mortar artillery reigns supreme in an environment where neither side has a decisive advantage in the air. I don't think anyone expected this war to see a resurgence in WWI-style slow, methodical, tedious artillery barrages.

[Damocles]

Kind of hard to pound Ukrainian cities to dust if they keep blowing up your ammunition warehouses and messing with your logistical capabilities. Guns, rockets, and mortars are all weapons systems, not individual weapons. A Msta is useless if there's no ammunition for it. A crate of 152mm HE ammunition is useless if there's no Msta to fire them from.

[Damocles]

Also we have to consider the barrel life and maintenance of the artillery guns. Rifling degrades after so many thousands of rounds are poured through it, and eventually, the barrels will have to be bored out and re-lined again at the factory. With the rate at which both Russian and Ukrainian artillery arms are burning through their respective stocks of shells, I wonder what logistics are in place to re-line worn-out barrels.

As time goes on, it becomes clear that this war is going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight, where the ability to replace losses and sustain forces readily will matter more than what pre-war stocks were available.

[Damocles]

I know Canada sent some extra barrels for this purpose. I think it was also mentioned that the last aid package from the US focused on maintenance and repair. That was how it was described by some officials, anyway, even though in the description they categorized it all as "spare parts" in addition to some recovery vehicles. So it's possible they had something like this in mind.

Surely, they don't want to give away too much information.

[Damocles]

I also want to point out that while making a basic 155mm NATO shell isn't that hard from a marginal production perspective, the real challenge lies in the scalability of the production line assets. If you're the Ukrainian defense minister, you can't just call Raytheon and say, "Hey, I want a million of these 155mm NATO shells delivered every month."

For one thing, you have to tender the contract and solicit bids from multiple vendors, you have to finance the acquisitions through war bond issuance and available financial aid packages, you have to have the logistical capacity to accept that huge volume of deliveries and manage them through your internal supply networks, and most of all, you have to keep fighting the damn war while you're waiting for your order to be filled.

Accuracy, range, and resupply are going to be key for Ukraine to win the artillery war against Russia, and that's true even for the basic 155mm NATO guns they have. M982 Excalibur guided shells are nice, sure, and they're very very accurate, sure, but they're also expensive as hell. Why spend so much coin on those when you can get a M1156 precision guidance kit for the existing dumb shells for one-fifth the cost, while deriving 90% of the benefit?

You don't need to match the Russians shell-for-shell in order to beat them. In fact, that's a horrible idea. It would just put more unnecessary wear on the barrel liners than is strictly necessary, result in more maintenance and repairs, and degrade your capability to keep the artillery operational. The goal here is to maximize hit percentage, minimize the number of times you have to fire, and stay light and mobile enough to evade suppression attempts.

[Damocles]

In other news, North Korea becomes the 3rd UN member to recognize the so called DPR and LPR as independent states, along with Syria and Russia itself.

https://www.reuters.com/world/north-korea-recognises-breakaway-russias-proxies-east-ukraine-2022-07-13/

Cucked and cringe.

[Damocles]

snip

Interesting that this BMP-2 contained only the driver, the gunner, and the commander. There weren't any infantry in the back who were taken into custody along with them. Plus the fact that they had white fabric material on the main gun and the commander was holding a white sheet is rather interesting. What are the odds these RuZZians haven't properly eaten or slept in days, have sh#%tty commanders, or simply decided, "Enough is enough"?

Perun's analysis spoke heavily about how RuZZia has serious manpower problems with its mechanized infantry divisions, and more generally along its front. Is this further evidence of that phenomenon even after the mobilization order?

[Damocles]

But you see causalities don’t matter for Russia because they have a bigger population and the soldiers are a bunch of social undesirables or something

And those who manage to survive and get sent back to Russia and demobilized totally won't have resentments against the government for forcing them to fight a pointless war that got most of their friends killed, achieved nothing, and grievously injured them

[Damocles]

A Ukrainian counteroffensive would likely involve an advance along the Orikhiv-Huliaipole-Velyka Novosilka-Vuhledar-Olenivka line.

Ukrainian armored and mechanized infantry units would advance southwards towards Melitopol, coordinating with local partisan units to dislodge Russian garrisons from the city. With Melitopol liberated and key road connections cut off from the Russians, some Ukrainian units would be tasked to establish a defense perimeter in Melitopol itself, while others would be directed eastwards, towards Berdiansk.

Ukrainian artillery would then bring up HIMARS 227mm, GLSDB, and other artillery systems along the northern shore of the Sea of Azov. These units would be tasked with constantly attacking the Kerch Strait Bridge, exhausting Russian air defense batteries' missiles, and preventing Russian logistical services from resupplying the garrisons in Crimea.

Other Ukrainian units would attempt to cross the Dnipro and take the strategic town of Nova Kakhova, with the principal objective of retaking the northern terminus of the North Crimean Canal. Engineering units would be present to rebuild the dams and water control structures, and deny the Russian garrisons in Crimea any adequate water supplies.

By this point, the better part of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts would be liberated, Russian garrisons in Crimea would be cut off from efficient reinforcement or resupply from the Russian mainland, and Ukrainian anti-air and anti-ship missiles could be brought up to deny the use of the air and water to Russian logistics.

Crimea itself could be placed under siege, and subjected to constant artillery bombardment coming from the Ukrainian side of the Syvash. Principal objectives would be to destroy weapons, ammunition, and refueling depots, hit the maintenance workshops for Russian truck convoys, and water purification and delivery infrastructure. Simultaneously, Ukraine could launch reconnaissance-by-force attacks, to test Russian forces' response capabilities and force them to waste ammunition on comparatively small numbers of infantry.

[Damocles]

Drones are just poor man’s cruise missiles. Don’t @ me