Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1659883799969136640

Wut? He got all this out of one minor summit?

Meanwhile these countries keep bootlicking the CIS with Russia at the top.

this is more copium

[CumbrianLefty]

Prigozhin is apparently claiming that Russia (and his mercenaries) now have 100% of Bakhmut.

Well done on this pivotal achievement, guys. It took you.......how long?

(and its only happened now because Ukraine voluntarily withdrew from the last bits!)

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

I would watch with interest the recession from 2023 and beyond, I think it will be especially significant.

Of course, that logic cuts both ways.  A mild world recession has been mostly priced in the world energy markets.  A severe world recession will for sure hammer world energy prices but such a severe recession will also shift the political dynamics in the collective West as far as the priority of resource allocation toward Ukraine's economic and military aid.  I think the pockets and will on both sides are pretty deep.  There is no reason to believe that this will be an indefinite war that will mostly benefit those outside it.

The PRC will definitely benefit from the cumulative subsidence of the economies of the West and the former USSR. This will allow the PRC to dictate its terms to the West and finally subjugate the Commonwealth of Independent States. And in the long run to bargain for the takeover of Taiwan.

Cui prodest in full height.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though its not that hard to see Xi overplaying his hand rather as Putin has done.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Prigozhin is apparently claiming that Russia (and his mercenaries) now have 100% of Bakhmut.

Well done on this pivotal achievement, guys. It took you.......how long?

(and its only happened now because Ukraine voluntarily withdrew from the last bits!)

Not to mention the only point of Bakhmut was to use it as a platform to attack bigger cities in the Donbas which they can’t do now so congrats on this massive waste of time piggy 🎉

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1659883799969136640

QED.

[jaichind]

The PRC will definitely benefit from the cumulative subsidence of the economies of the West and the former USSR. This will allow the PRC to dictate its terms to the West and finally subjugate the Commonwealth of Independent States. And in the long run to bargain for the takeover of Taiwan.

Cui prodest in full height.

PRC gains economically mostly by having its industrial competitors in the EU saddled with higher energy costs and it also can penetrate the Russian market much more easily.  I guess PRC makes minor geopolitical gains.  Geopolitically the big winner clearly is India.

[jaichind]

Prigozhin announces the full capture of Bakhmut.  He has jumped the gun before but I think even if he is off he is only off by a matter of day or two at most.  I wonder if Zelensky's last-minute decision to go to G7 Summit in Japan is to avoid being in Ukraine when they have to confirm the full loss of Bakhmut. 

[CumbrianLefty]

Prigozhin announces the full capture of Bakhmut.  He has jumped the gun before but I think even if he is off he is only off by a matter of day or two at most.  I wonder if Zelensky's last-minute decision to go to G7 Summit in Japan is to avoid being in Ukraine when they have to confirm the full loss of Bakhmut. 

Well, would Zelensky want to confirm such a sensitive thing as a G7 stop way in advance anyway?

[Woody]

After 9 months of fighting, the most bloodiest and fierce battle so far in this war, came to an end today. 100% of Bakhmut is now under the elements of the Russian Federation.

https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1659919571036282880?cxt=HHwWgICxtcSDnIkuA...

[Hindsight was 2020]

Prigozhin announces the full capture of Bakhmut.  He has jumped the gun before but I think even if he is off he is only off by a matter of day or two at most.  I wonder if Zelensky's last-minute decision to go to G7 Summit in Japan is to avoid being in Ukraine when they have to confirm the full loss of Bakhmut.  

Thats completely ridiculous, Ukrainian aren’t going to mass protesting or throwing Molotov cocktails at Zelensky over Bakhmut. If anything beyond the chance to flex diplomatically like having meetings with India were they according to Zelensky agreed to give humanitarian aid to Ukraine and back Ukraine getting all its territory back; the factors that drove Zelensky to go to the G7 was the F16 program announcement so now he can coordination the details with the Western countries supplying them

[Woody]

John Dule & Hindsight is 2020 meanwhile...

"Don't worry. If Steiner attacks, everything will be alright.."

[CumbrianLefty]

After 9 months of fighting, the most bloodiest and fierce battle so far this war came to an end today. 100% of Bakhmut is now under the elements of the Russian Federation.

Phyrrus sends his regards.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/flash_news_ua/status/1659920458798563330?s=12
Ukraine seems to be denying they left the city for now at least

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

The PRC will definitely benefit from the cumulative subsidence of the economies of the West and the former USSR. This will allow the PRC to dictate its terms to the West and finally subjugate the Commonwealth of Independent States. And in the long run to bargain for the takeover of Taiwan.

Cui prodest in full height.

PRC gains economically mostly by having its industrial competitors in the EU saddled with higher energy costs and it also can penetrate the Russian market much more easily.  I guess PRC makes minor geopolitical gains.  Geopolitically the big winner clearly is India.

So far, I see that India has egg on its face, since it has always depended on Russian weapons, and now the reputation of these weapons is lost, and the reputation of India itself will be lost if these purchases continue.

We can see one of the things China won right in the photo above, but what do you think India wins?

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1659890397433192454

[jaichind]

Ukraine MoD rejects Russian claims on Russian complete capture of Bakhmut

[emailking]

Russia’s Wagner group claims to have captured Bakhmut but Ukraine says it still controls a part of it

The chief of the Russian private military group Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, claimed Saturday that his forces have taken complete control of the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut after months of brutal fighting.

“The operation to capture Bakhmut lasted 224 days,” he said in a video posted to Telegram, seeking to claim a final victory in the city.

CNN could not independently verify Prigozhin’s claim, but an initial response from the Ukrainian side disputed it.

Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar, in a Telegram post less than an hour after the Russian mercenary’s claim was published, admitted the situation in Bakhmut was “critical” but said Ukrainian troops were still “holding the defense” in a district on Bakhmut’s western-most edge.

“As of now, our defenders control certain industrial and infrastructure facilities in the area and the private sector,” she said.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/20/europe/bakhmut-capture-wagner-ukraine-russia-intl/index.html

[Badger]

Russia’s Wagner group claims to have captured Bakhmut but Ukraine says it still controls a part of it

The chief of the Russian private military group Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, claimed Saturday that his forces have taken complete control of the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut after months of brutal fighting.

“The operation to capture Bakhmut lasted 224 days,” he said in a video posted to Telegram, seeking to claim a final victory in the city.

CNN could not independently verify Prigozhin’s claim, but an initial response from the Ukrainian side disputed it.

Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar, in a Telegram post less than an hour after the Russian mercenary’s claim was published, admitted the situation in Bakhmut was “critical” but said Ukrainian troops were still “holding the defense” in a district on Bakhmut’s western-most edge.

“As of now, our defenders control certain industrial and infrastructure facilities in the area and the private sector,” she said.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/20/europe/bakhmut-capture-wagner-ukraine-russia-intl/index.html

How does Wagner group's claim, or more importantly Ukraine's admission the situation is critical, jive with all the well corroborated reports of Ukrainian advances in Russian retreats in the area over the past days?

[Red Velvet]

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1659890397433192454

Hmmm I wouldn’t call a meeting with India in G7 as the global south eager to support Ukraine lmao

Like, it was Ukraine who requested bilateral meetings with India and Brazil in the G7, as part of their strategy to get support from where they are lacking it. India accepted, Brazil still didn’t. Meaning it’s Ukraine who recognizes the multipolarity of the world is already a reality and that they NEED support from major global south players since the West backing is clearly not enough. Which confirms that the multipolar theory is already a reality.

[jaichind]

The PRC will definitely benefit from the cumulative subsidence of the economies of the West and the former USSR. This will allow the PRC to dictate its terms to the West and finally subjugate the Commonwealth of Independent States. And in the long run to bargain for the takeover of Taiwan.

Cui prodest in full height.

PRC gains economically mostly by having its industrial competitors in the EU saddled with higher energy costs and it also can penetrate the Russian market much more easily.  I guess PRC makes minor geopolitical gains.  Geopolitically the big winner clearly is India.

So far, I see that India has egg on its face, since it has always depended on Russian weapons, and now the reputation of these weapons is lost, and the reputation of India itself will be lost if these purchases continue.

We can see one of the things China won right in the photo above, but what do you think India wins?

Now everyone, the PRC-Russia super bloc, and the collective West, now wants India on their side and be their friend.  A great geopolitical coup for India.

[NOVA Green]

As usual a pretty good take from Mr. OBrien on Bakhmut.


https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1659961033279119360?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1659890397433192454

Hmmm I wouldn’t call a meeting with India in G7 as the global south eager to support Ukraine lmao

Like, it was Ukraine who requested bilateral meetings with India and Brazil in the G7, as part of their strategy to get support from where they are lacking it. India accepted, Brazil still didn’t. Meaning it’s Ukraine who recognizes the multipolarity of the world is already a reality and that they NEED support from major global south players since the West backing is clearly not enough. Which confirms that the multipolar theory is already a reality.

Or Ukraine is reaching out to India (and less extent Brazil) because they outside of China are the only other to have the ability to put political pressure on Russia to give up

[NOVA Green]

The irony in this made me laugh.

https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1659728881258037248?s=20

[Red Velvet]

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1659890397433192454

Hmmm I wouldn’t call a meeting with India in G7 as the global south eager to support Ukraine lmao

Like, it was Ukraine who requested bilateral meetings with India and Brazil in the G7, as part of their strategy to get support from where they are lacking it. India accepted, Brazil still didn’t. Meaning it’s Ukraine who recognizes the multipolarity of the world is already a reality and that they NEED support from major global south players since the West backing is clearly not enough. Which confirms that the multipolar theory is already a reality.

Or Ukraine is reaching out to India (and less extent Brazil) because they outside of China are the only other to have the ability to put political pressure on Russia to give up

Incorrect, because since the end of 2022 Ukrainian diplomats have started to look to African countries as well. The concern is regarding the global south non-alignment as a whole and not just limited to India.