PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[wbrocks67]

I also don't understand why Reschenthaler is considered the best candidate? I mean, sure I guess he has the highest profile b/c he's already a sitting congressman, but he's still way farther right than the GOP needs to win statewide in PA.

[S019]

I also don't understand why Reschenthaler is considered the best candidate? I mean, sure I guess he has the highest profile b/c he's already a sitting congressman, but he's still way farther right than the GOP needs to win statewide in PA.

I mean I said I think the best candidate is one of Dent/Costello/Fitzpatrick, but Reschenthaler is less clownish than say Sean Parnell, and it wasn't that long ago when Pat Toomey was a far right Tea Partiest who would've lost the party the seat had he primaried Specter (2004), and he was still pretty far right in 2010.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

I also don't understand why Reschenthaler is considered the best candidate? I mean, sure I guess he has the highest profile b/c he's already a sitting congressman, but he's still way farther right than the GOP needs to win statewide in PA.

He can put on a nice, normal guy face though. He's not as obviously off the rails as someone like Parnell or Mike Kelly.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I get that some people seem to think the Democratic primary is all that matters in this race (this race seems to be the new poster child for Atlas' "Democratic candidate quality matters, all Republican candidates are clowns" shtick), but no Republican will be "toast" in a general election for federal office in PA in 2022, please get real.

the GOP primary really is under discussed here, however lack of chatter is indicative of the fact that the PA GOP doesn't really have a bench. Yes, they have two row offices now, but they're probably not the best candidates for this seat and are very green. The GOP delegation here is mostly old backbenchers with a few exceptions. It'll be quite interesting to see whom the party GOP will rally around, but there's so many unknowns as of right now.

Comparing the weak GOP bench to the field of talent that the dems have in the state: Fetterman, Kenyatta, Dean, Wild, Cartwright, Shapiro (yeah ik he's not running), Lamb, Boyle, etc

Not only that, but whoever the GOP nominee is has to walk a very fine line between winning over swing voters in the Philly burbs/Lehigh Valley/Wyoming Valley and pumping turnout in Pennsyltucky.

It's not too fine a line if you're not the incumbent and your party is seen to be out of power at the Congressional and presidential levels. They probably just need to avoid offending either group too much, as opposed to actively having to win them over.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a PVI Election of 2 or better D's are gonna win PA and WI and NH nomatter what

Rs haven't lead on Ballot since 2016 plus 1

[S019]

In a PVI Election of 2 or better D's are gonna win PA and WI and NH nomatter what

Rs haven't lead on Ballot since 2016 plus 1

I normally disagree with you, but in recent weeks, I have started to feel more optimistic about this race, while at the same time becoming more and more pessimistic about NH.

[sting in the rafters]

I get that some people seem to think the Democratic primary is all that matters in this race (this race seems to be the new poster child for Atlas' "Democratic candidate quality matters, all Republican candidates are clowns" shtick), but no Republican will be "toast" in a general election for federal office in PA in 2022, please get real.

the GOP primary really is under discussed here, however lack of chatter is indicative of the fact that the PA GOP doesn't really have a bench. Yes, they have two row offices now, but they're probably not the best candidates for this seat and are very green. The GOP delegation here is mostly old backbenchers with a few exceptions. It'll be quite interesting to see whom the party GOP will rally around, but there's so many unknowns as of right now.

Comparing the weak GOP bench to the field of talent that the dems have in the state: Fetterman, Kenyatta, Dean, Wild, Cartwright, Shapiro (yeah ik he's not running), Lamb, Boyle, etc

Not only that, but whoever the GOP nominee is has to walk a very fine line between winning over swing voters in the Philly burbs/Lehigh Valley/Wyoming Valley and pumping turnout in Pennsyltucky.

It's not too fine a line if you're not the incumbent and your party is seen to be out of power at the Congressional and presidential levels. They probably just need to avoid offending either group too much, as opposed to actively having to win them over.

Not necessarily. While NEPA's gotten more favorable for Rs since 2010, No R nominee is getting the margins Toomey got in the Lehigh Valley nor Philly suburbs. Which in turn means not only will they need to get super-heated Appalachian turnout, but also cut the margins in the east as well.

[Lognog]

I get that some people seem to think the Democratic primary is all that matters in this race (this race seems to be the new poster child for Atlas' "Democratic candidate quality matters, all Republican candidates are clowns" shtick), but no Republican will be "toast" in a general election for federal office in PA in 2022, please get real.

the GOP primary really is under discussed here, however lack of chatter is indicative of the fact that the PA GOP doesn't really have a bench. Yes, they have two row offices now, but they're probably not the best candidates for this seat and are very green. The GOP delegation here is mostly old backbenchers with a few exceptions. It'll be quite interesting to see whom the party GOP will rally around, but there's so many unknowns as of right now.

Comparing the weak GOP bench to the field of talent that the dems have in the state: Fetterman, Kenyatta, Dean, Wild, Cartwright, Shapiro (yeah ik he's not running), Lamb, Boyle, etc

Not only that, but whoever the GOP nominee is has to walk a very fine line between winning over swing voters in the Philly burbs/Lehigh Valley/Wyoming Valley and pumping turnout in Pennsyltucky.

I totally disagree. There are plenty messages that unify those groups: low taxes, strong border, defending the police.

Trumpists will certainly turnout and I could see some of the suburban R's not being offended by some generic R

Let me stress that this is a lean R race at best for dems

[sting in the rafters]

I get that some people seem to think the Democratic primary is all that matters in this race (this race seems to be the new poster child for Atlas' "Democratic candidate quality matters, all Republican candidates are clowns" shtick), but no Republican will be "toast" in a general election for federal office in PA in 2022, please get real.

the GOP primary really is under discussed here, however lack of chatter is indicative of the fact that the PA GOP doesn't really have a bench. Yes, they have two row offices now, but they're probably not the best candidates for this seat and are very green. The GOP delegation here is mostly old backbenchers with a few exceptions. It'll be quite interesting to see whom the party GOP will rally around, but there's so many unknowns as of right now.

Comparing the weak GOP bench to the field of talent that the dems have in the state: Fetterman, Kenyatta, Dean, Wild, Cartwright, Shapiro (yeah ik he's not running), Lamb, Boyle, etc

Not only that, but whoever the GOP nominee is has to walk a very fine line between winning over swing voters in the Philly burbs/Lehigh Valley/Wyoming Valley and pumping turnout in Pennsyltucky.

I totally disagree. There are plenty messages that unify those groups: low taxes, strong border, defending the police.

Trumpists will certainly turnout and I could see some of the suburban R's not being offended by some generic R

Let me stress that this is a lean R race at best for dems

Will they? Turnout in rural PA would definitely make the race a tight. Ultimately PA comes down to who can turnout their base more, and that number of swing voters that are fiscally conservative/socially liberal is shrinking. The county office races in 2019 and decisive margins in 2020 from Chesco/Montco/Delco are all from those 3 counties urbanizing from the housing boom. Thing is, that voter shows up in every election. The Ds have made progress with converting former swing voters into their base, and maximizing their registration numbers with younger voters in those counties. Likewise the same trend is shown in the Harrisburg metro though that


I'm not saying the Ds will win for sure. If Rs can expand in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton area+run a true Trumpist who gets the gaudy rural numbers, then they could pull it out and unseat Cartwright. It'll be important for the economy to do well and for the Dems to deliver on their campaign promises to keep voter engagement high.

[Frenchrepublican]

I don't understand why so many red avatars are trashing Sean Parnell... he came very close to unseat Lamb despite the race being rated by most pundits as Likely D if not even Safe D, also he is a good fundraiser and has a good resume, in a neutral year / non dem leaning year he would be favoured against all the potential democratic candidates.

[Frenchrepublican]

I get that some people seem to think the Democratic primary is all that matters in this race (this race seems to be the new poster child for Atlas' "Democratic candidate quality matters, all Republican candidates are clowns" shtick), but no Republican will be "toast" in a general election for federal office in PA in 2022, please get real.

One potentially strong Republican candidate hasn't even announced yet-Guy Reschenthaler. This Senate race is certainly not one which Democrats can take for granted. It's as if people forget that Biden only won the state by slightly over 1%, and he was considered to be the best fit of any Democratic presidential candidate for it.

Biden won though despite the fact that Trump got all of his Trumpers out to vote, which does not happen in off year elections as we've seen. There was record turnout, with Trump nearly maxing out his rurals in PA, and he still lost by 80,000 votes. So it kinda goes both ways here. The GOP candidate is not going to have that advantage, as we saw with 2018 and the special elections since 2016.

If you take a look at polling you will find that roughly 60/65% of Biden voters strongly approve Biden's job but you have rougly 70/75% of Trump voters who strongly disapprove his job. That's what should worry democrats. If there is an intensity gap it won't be in favour of democrats, to put it simply the voters who vote in midterms are those who love/hate the president, those who are soft approvers are not going to vote in large numbers, so if these numbers stand it's very possible that the 2022 electorate will feature less Biden voters than Trump voters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I get that some people seem to think the Democratic primary is all that matters in this race (this race seems to be the new poster child for Atlas' "Democratic candidate quality matters, all Republican candidates are clowns" shtick), but no Republican will be "toast" in a general election for federal office in PA in 2022, please get real.

One potentially strong Republican candidate hasn't even announced yet-Guy Reschenthaler. This Senate race is certainly not one which Democrats can take for granted. It's as if people forget that Biden only won the state by slightly over 1%, and he was considered to be the best fit of any Democratic presidential candidate for it.

Biden won though despite the fact that Trump got all of his Trumpers out to vote, which does not happen in off year elections as we've seen. There was record turnout, with Trump nearly maxing out his rurals in PA, and he still lost by 80,000 votes. So it kinda goes both ways here. The GOP candidate is not going to have that advantage, as we saw with 2018 and the special elections since 2016.

If you take a look at polling you will find that roughly 60/65% of Biden voters strongly approve Biden's job but you have rougly 70/75% of Trump voters who strongly disapprove his job. That's what should worry democrats. If there is an intensity gap it won't be in favour of democrats, to put it simply the voters who vote in midterms are those who love/hate the president, those who are soft approvers are not going to vote in large numbers, so if these numbers stand it's very possible that the 2022 electorate will feature less Biden voters than Trump voters.

Lol the Rs haven't won the PVI since 2016 when Hillary lost, 2018 D plus8, 2020 D plus 3.1 and 2022 D's are leading plus 4

[wbrocks67]

I don't understand why so many red avatars are trashing Sean Parnell... he came very close to unseat Lamb despite the race being rated by most pundits as Likely D if not even Safe D, also he is a good fundraiser and has a good resume, in a neutral year / non dem leaning year he would be favoured against all the potential democratic candidates.

I mean, he essentially did the same as Trump. It was mostly the Trump effect imo, added with a few split ticket voters to keep a "check" on Biden.

[Frenchrepublican]

I don't understand why so many red avatars are trashing Sean Parnell... he came very close to unseat Lamb despite the race being rated by most pundits as Likely D if not even Safe D, also he is a good fundraiser and has a good resume, in a neutral year / non dem leaning year he would be favoured against all the potential democratic candidates.

I mean, he essentially did the same as Trump. It was mostly the Trump effect imo, added with a few split ticket voters to keep a "check" on Biden.

The fact that Parnell did as well than Trump despite facing a highly touted incumbent is speaking in his favour

[ctherainbow]

Sharif officially announced, at a Zoom conference packed with establishment Dems, whilst comparing himself to Barack Obama.   *eyes roll out of head*   If anyone’s interested in watching, it’s up on his FB page.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Sharif officially announced, at a Zoom conference packed with establishment Dems, whilst comparing himself to Barack Obama.   *eyes roll out of head*   If anyone’s interested in watching, it’s up on his FB page.

Ugh. Boring.

[wbrocks67]

Sharif officially announced, at a Zoom conference packed with establishment Dems, whilst comparing himself to Barack Obama.   *eyes roll out of head*   If anyone’s interested in watching, it’s up on his FB page.

Ugh. Boring.

He announced an exploratory committee though.

[VAR]

We’re only 3 months into the 2022 cycle, and this thread already has almost 30 pages. At this rate, we’ll get a 2nd or even a 3rd megathread. Virtually unheard of on Atlas, AL-SEN 2017 aside.

[ctherainbow]

He announced an exploratory committee though.

You're not wrong!  It has however been common knowledge, along the lines of Shapiro running for Governor, that Sharif is running for Senate.  Honestly I think he's waiting to see how well Malcolm and Val Arkoosh do in fundraising before he makes it official.

I am just still shook by the self-comparison to Barack Obama(full disclosure, I got this info from a trusted friend who watched the whole thing, not from my own partial watch of the video), like... who does that?  If anything, Malcolm is the next Barack Obama.

[Pericles]

I don't understand why so many red avatars are trashing Sean Parnell... he came very close to unseat Lamb despite the race being rated by most pundits as Likely D if not even Safe D, also he is a good fundraiser and has a good resume, in a neutral year / non dem leaning year he would be favoured against all the potential democratic candidates.

I mean, he essentially did the same as Trump. It was mostly the Trump effect imo, added with a few split ticket voters to keep a "check" on Biden.

In 2022 if the electorate that comes out to vote would have voted Biden by say 5 points it's a Dem win almost no matter what, and if it's an electorate that would have voted for Trump that seat is probably voting for the Republican candidate.

[brucejoel99]

He announced an exploratory committee though.

You're not wrong!  It has however been common knowledge, along the lines of Shapiro running for Governor, that Sharif is running for Senate.  Honestly I think he's waiting to see how well Malcolm and Val Arkoosh do in fundraising before he makes it official.

I am just still shook by the self-comparison to Barack Obama(full disclosure, I got this info from a trusted friend who watched the whole thing, not from my own partial watch of the video), like... who does that?  If anything, Malcolm is the next Barack Obama.

Neither of them's gonna be "the next Barack Obama" if Sharif - despite standing 0 chance of winning - nonetheless pulls enough votes away from Kenyatta to hand the race to Fetterman.

[Roll Roons]

Several interesting names here:
https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1380732323897823234/photo/1

[ctherainbow]

Neither of them's gonna be "the next Barack Obama" if Sharif - despite standing 0 chance of winning - nonetheless pulls enough votes away from Kenyatta to hand the race to Fetterman.

Sharif be like:



BUT in all seriousness, Sharif wouldn't be objectively the worst candidate, and had he entered earlier, he likely could have cleared the field of any major Philly candidates.  I've been cackling since Malcolm blindsided everyone with his announcement, as I have some professional beef with Sharif(he has done the UTMOST to stymie progressive rural Dems in PA), and would not be sad to see him lose the nomination if he runs.  

On another topic, if Malcolm doesn't snatch the Senate nom next spring, I'd love to see him take out Dwight Evans in 2024.

[Tender Branson]

Fetterman makes the frontpage of today’s ORF (= German-language Austrian public broadcaster):

https://orf.at/

https://orf.at/stories/3206232/

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Neither of them's gonna be "the next Barack Obama" if Sharif - despite standing 0 chance of winning - nonetheless pulls enough votes away from Kenyatta to hand the race to Fetterman.

Sharif be like:



BUT in all seriousness, Sharif wouldn't be objectively the worst candidate, and had he entered earlier, he likely could have cleared the field of any major Philly candidates.  I've been cackling since Malcolm blindsided everyone with his announcement, as I have some professional beef with Sharif(he has done the UTMOST to stymie progressive rural Dems in PA), and would not be sad to see him lose the nomination if he runs.  

On another topic, if Malcolm doesn't snatch the Senate nom next spring, I'd love to see him take out Dwight Evans in 2024.

1) I would love to see Kenyatta drop down and run against Evans.  I actually think he’d have a better shot there. 

2) Sharif seems pretty awful; I wouldn’t trust him as far as I can throw him.  And his family has a history of sketchball behavior.  John Street was an extremely corrupt and all-around horrible Mayor.  His uncle, Milton Street, switched parties in order to flip control of the PA State Senate in the 90s to the Republicans (he was deciding vote), went to prison for tax evasion, and recently ran against Kenyatta as a Republican.  I know this isn’t Sharif Street’s fault, but given his history of working against progressives, I don’t see how we can trust him (especially in a closely divided Senate).