PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[S019]

I am honestly not convinced that Fetterman would be that strong, and his views are quite to the left, and if the GOP nominates someone like Fitzpatrick, I could easily see him struggle in the suburbs. We also don't know much about how viable Fetterman is statewide, but given he has been quite weak in the two primaries that he has ran in, I'm not even convinced he could win a primary. Especially if another western PA politician (such as Lamb) runs in that same primary.

[S019]

I am honestly not convinced that Fetterman would be that strong, and his views are quite to the left, and if the GOP nominates someone like Fitzpatrick, I could easily see him struggle in the suburbs. We also don't know much about how viable Fetterman is statewide, but given he has been quite weak in the two primaries that he has ran in, I'm not even convinced he could win a primary. Especially if another western PA politician (such as Lamb) runs in that same primary.

He unseated an incumbent in his 2018 primary. That's a weak performance?

Also, there is a 0% chance the PAGOP nominates Fitzpatrick, and you guys are more than welcome to clown on me if I get proven wrong; he would immediately be tarred as a RINO and would not make it through the primaries. I truly hope that Lamb's recent antics have made him damaged goods, as well, but I can't be sure.

With around 30% of the vote and him being the only candidate from western PA, while everyone else was from the east and splitting the votes there

[S019]

Costello will form an exploratory committee soon.

Cant wait to see him get 10% in the primary and get dunked on by like...Doug Mastriano

I believe you mean Daddy Doug Mastriano

Doug Mastriano is a fascist, he is no Daddy, the real Daddy here is Ryan Costello who took a stand against fascism and voted against the Orange Demagogue, however given he will still vote for Mitch as Majority Leader and thus obstruct Biden's last two years of his first term, I have no choice but to support the Democratic nominee, but let me say that Costello would be among the best Republican senators, if he did win, and if he were in a safe red state like Nebraska, I'd be actively cheering him on in this race.

Costello will form an exploratory committee soon.

While he would make the race harder to win, for the sake of this nation's sanity, I hope the GOP starts nominating more people like him, I'm not willing to make fascism the opposition, just because it's easier to win against fascists. Then, there is the risk of those fascists actually winning.

[S019]

I don't live in PA but PASS. Rooting for Conor Lamb if he gets in.

Yeah I think Lamb would be good, I'm also fine with Cartwright, I think either would be better than Fetterman

[S019]

Fetterman seems relatively moderate on the environment compared to the standard progressive profile. He opposes the GND (while "supporting parts of it"), principally because of objections to an "unrealistic" five-year energy transition and a fracking ban.

Although he has signed the 'No Fossil Fuel Money' pledge, the differences between him and, say, Lamb are more likely to become apparent on issues like healthcare, housing, etc. I suppose environmental policy could become a key fault line between Fetterman and Kenyatta but I don't think they will end up occupying 1st and 2nd place.

Not supporting the green new deal does not make you moderate.

Quite frankly, saving the environment is not a moderate, or conservative, or liberal issue. Had we done Cap-and-Trade 10 years ago, then maybe we wouldn't need the Green New Deal, but your party blocked it and now we need something very ambitious like the GND to save the planet. This isn't a matter of right or left, it's a matter of doing what's right.

[S019]

Do you have a source or is this a scoop? Not that it's unexpected, and tbh I'd support her if she ran, I am not that happy with the current choices, though I'm leaning Arkoosh atm, but I'd be for Dean, if she jumped in.

[S019]

Do you have a source or is this a scoop? Not that it's unexpected, and tbh I'd support her if she ran, I am not that happy with the current choices, though I'm leaning Arkoosh atm, but I'd be for Dean, if she jumped in.

Would Arkoosh drop down to PA-04 if Dean got in?

idk, but it makes quite a lot of sense imo, especially since the SEPA vote is already quite divided.

[S019]

Is Dean actually a good candidate? Pretty sure she underperformed Biden by several points.

She's from SEPA and that is where this race will be decided in the general. It is the base of Democratic votes in the state, so having someone from there is undoubtedly a plus, due to Pennsylvania's abnormal voting patterns based on geography.

[S019]

While I expect this race to be competitive, regardless of the national environment, surely the GOP can do better than a clown like Sean Parnell. If Parnell is the nominee, I wouldn't be shocked to see this race end up on the list of blown NRSC opportunities. Honestly, the Republicans' best hope here is to boost Costello and hope that they can boost him enough that it won't matter that he voted for Biden or to try to convince Fitzpatrick to enter. Reschenthaler, Meuser, etc. while not the best possible candidates, wouldn't be exactly awful. Jeff Bartos and Sean Parnell is just not an enticing list of candidates, the NRSC can surely do better, and unfortunately (for me and other fellow Democrats), I think they ultimately will. I think this is the purest tossup Senate race right now though.

[S019]

I also don't understand why Reschenthaler is considered the best candidate? I mean, sure I guess he has the highest profile b/c he's already a sitting congressman, but he's still way farther right than the GOP needs to win statewide in PA.

I mean I said I think the best candidate is one of Dent/Costello/Fitzpatrick, but Reschenthaler is less clownish than say Sean Parnell, and it wasn't that long ago when Pat Toomey was a far right Tea Partiest who would've lost the party the seat had he primaried Specter (2004), and he was still pretty far right in 2010.

[S019]

In a PVI Election of 2 or better D's are gonna win PA and WI and NH nomatter what

Rs haven't lead on Ballot since 2016 plus 1

I normally disagree with you, but in recent weeks, I have started to feel more optimistic about this race, while at the same time becoming more and more pessimistic about NH.

[S019]

Pretty good POLITICO piece on Trump's influence: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/15/pennsylvania-senate-race-trump-481723

I'm still hoping the GOP nominates Dent or Costello, just so even if the Republicans win, there won't be another Trumpist loon winning, too. I obviously still prefer the Democrats, but it's pretty alarming how basically every serious candidate is a downgrade from Toomey, who as a reminder was considered pretty far right in 2010.

[S019]

I hope Dean stays out of the race, I don’t think she has the political chops to handle a highly competitive Senate GE (especially if it’s not a Democratic-leaning national environment) and she was one of the less charismatic impeachment managers.

But then Houlahan is screwed in redistricting

not screwed, such a seat would have been very close in 2016 but probably voted for Biden by 4 or so points given how Chester moved like 7 pts left. It'd be a tossup, probably, but she'd probably lose, if this midterm follows past midterm patterns.

[S019]

what has Fetterman done that is pissing people off/getting people worried?

Few things for me, the first is the whole chasing a black person with a gun, the second is that he's never actually run in a partisan election and only won the Democratic primary since a bunch of SEPA candidates split the vote, the third is my worry that some of his more left wing views might alienate moderate Romney/Clinton voters in the PA suburbs who we need to win this race, and the fourth is that this rate will be decided in the SEPA Collars, so I'd rather our candidate have their geographic base of support from there or Philadelphia. Most people are generally only upset about one or two, I believe.

[S019]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Logan_Ratick/status/1389694573941862404


Rescenthaler endorses Parnell

[S019]

I guess I have an unpopular opinion here where yes Parnell is not a good candidate, he did come close against Lamb, but that was partly due to Trump's coattails and it'd be much harder for him to pull it off while leading the top of the ticket, however I would absolutely not count him out, TL;DR, tossup remains tossup.

[S019]

Honestly, I'm not impressed with any of the Democrats currently running right now.

Kenyatta is too far left to win a general election in Pennsylvania (though he might have been able to get away with it in a more Democratic year), Lamb won't win over base Democrats, and Fetterman should have run for Governor, quite honestly, as he just hasn't impressed me in this race.

I think the best possible candidate would have been Matt Cartwright, actually. I mean, sure we'd lose his seat, but Cartwright's likely going to lose reelection, unless a Dem Gerrymander were passed for some reason.

I really don't get where this idea comes from where Kenyatta is too far left, but Fetterman isn't, if anything they're similarly left, Fetterman might even be slightly more leftist. As for Lamb, he's definitely pivoting the left a bit, and he was always less moderate than he let on.

[S019]

I honestly would not be surprised if someone in the Republican Party is deliberately leaking all of this oppo to weaken Parnell, who they probably view as weak, and to push through another candidate.

[S019]

My money is on Costello, he wanted to run, and he seems like the exact opposite of Parnell.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1455272871207579656

[S019]

I know so many people have made this joke, but as a New Jerseyan, I am honored that Pennsylvania wants to give us an extra Senator, at their expense.

[S019]

Fetterman has chosen to duck a forum, his main rivals in this race will attend (Street is completely irrelevant)

https://twitter.com/PASenateWatch/status/1483594027236737029

[S019]

Idk if Szymanski has some insider knowledge, but it seems he may have misinterpreted some news we got today. Three PA House Dems did indeed endorse Lamb, however these were State House Dems, perhaps a case of reading the headline and not the context, or they all plan on doing so, with Arkoosh when she drops out. I have seen no evidence of Houlahan or Dean endorsing Lamb though.

Yep it seems he misinterpreted this: https://twitter.com/JosephSzymanski/status/1486417526473072647?cxt=HHwWjoC91a236...

[S019]

Is there any evidence at all that a Senator Lamb would act like Manchin or Sinema?

Not at all, he's voted basically like Generic D during his House tenure.

[S019]

I still don't understand why this primary inspires such vitriol, I support Lamb because I think he'd be likelier to win the general election, but it seems like so much tension over a race that Democrats are obviously underdogs in given the national environment. Both Lamb and Fetterman need an improvement in the national environment to be able to win, both of them will face the same hostile headwinds and it'll be an uphill battle for either. I'm also not convinced that Republican candidate quality is as bad as many think it is, or that "candidate quality" will particularly matter, I think it's fair to call this Tilt/Lean R for now.