PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[sting in the rafters]

I know, I know, the comparisons are played out. But Georgia just elected a black pastor and a Jewish millennial and we're still doing the whole "Kenyatta is unelectable because he's gay and black" spiel. Give me a break.

One moment: Georgia isn't Pennsylvania

Wow really, I'd never considered that before.

Look, does anyone here have an actual reason why Fetterman is supposedly so much more electable than Kenyatta other than the fact he happens to fit our stereotype of what a white working class voter happens to look like? I can understand this argument with someone like Cartwright, who has actually had electoral overperformance in federal races before, but Fetterman's only won races in a heavily Democratic city and a crowded primary for lieutenant governor where he was the only Western Pennsylvania candidate running.

If you view swing voters in Pennsylvania as all racists and homophobes who won't vote for Kenyatta because he's a scary gay black man, then just be up front and say that.Both Kenyatta and Fetterman seem absolutely fine on policy and I'd be happy to run with either, but y'all need to actually base your arguments against Kenyatta on something more tangible than an imaginary aura of electability that Fetterman has.

unfortunately that is my belief

Very common misconception regarding PA. Anyone who's a homophobic racist in central PA hasn't voted for a Democrat since Casey in 2012 at the federal level (maybe Casey in '18 though it's more likely this hypothetical voter stayed home then). The swing voters of the Philadelphia suburbs are culturally liberal and will only become more progressive due to population growth. My childhood county of Chester has gone from Bush+10 in 2000 to Biden+17 because of the housing boom and good school districts. Just recently Democrats gained the party registration edge in Chester County for the first time ever. Voters here are repulsed by the poor handling of COVID+there's a number of young professionals who are struggling with student loan debt. Ditto for Pittsburgh metro, Pittsburgh's had a major tech boom in the past 5-10 years which is fueling population growth similar to the influx of young college grads in Colorado+Arizona.

I think the 2020 race is a true tossup regardless of whom the nominee is. Historically Democrats are at a disadvantage in PA midterms due to the New Deal Coalition of WWC and urban nonwhite base not showing up. However, they may actually have an advantage if the realignment of college-educated suburban voters holds, which would in turn require the GOP to have a phenomenal turnout effort in the rural areas of the state to have a shot of winning. Obviously PA's always gonna be a competitive state and it's gonna come down to which party can pump their base more.

[Boss_Rahm]

I know, I know, the comparisons are played out. But Georgia just elected a black pastor and a Jewish millennial and we're still doing the whole "Kenyatta is unelectable because he's gay and black" spiel. Give me a break.

One moment: Georgia isn't Pennsylvania

Wow really, I'd never considered that before.

Look, does anyone here have an actual reason why Fetterman is supposedly so much more electable than Kenyatta other than the fact he happens to fit our stereotype of what a white working class voter happens to look like? I can understand this argument with someone like Cartwright, who has actually had electoral overperformance in federal races before, but Fetterman's only won races in a heavily Democratic city and a crowded primary for lieutenant governor where he was the only Western Pennsylvania candidate running.

If you view swing voters in Pennsylvania as all racists and homophobes who won't vote for Kenyatta because he's a scary gay black man, then just be up front and say that.Both Kenyatta and Fetterman seem absolutely fine on policy and I'd be happy to run with either, but y'all need to actually base your arguments against Kenyatta on something more tangible than an imaginary aura of electability that Fetterman has.

unfortunately that is my belief

Very common misconception regarding PA. Anyone who's a homophobic racist in central PA hasn't voted for a Democrat since Casey in 2012 at the federal level (maybe Casey in '18 though it's more likely this hypothetical voter stayed home then). The swing voters of the Philadelphia suburbs are culturally liberal and will only become more progressive due to population growth. My childhood county of Chester has gone from Bush+10 in 2000 to Biden+17 because of the housing boom and good school districts. Just recently Democrats gained the party registration edge in Chester County for the first time ever. Voters here are repulsed by the poor handling of COVID+there's a number of young professionals who are struggling with student loan debt. Ditto for Pittsburgh metro, Pittsburgh's had a major tech boom in the past 5-10 years which is fueling population growth similar to the influx of young college grads in Colorado+Arizona.

I think the 2020 race is a true tossup regardless of whom the nominee is. Historically Democrats are at a disadvantage in PA midterms due to the New Deal Coalition of WWC and urban nonwhite base not showing up. However, they may actually have an advantage if the realignment of college-educated suburban voters holds, which would in turn require the GOP to have a phenomenal turnout effort in the rural areas of the state to have a shot of winning. Obviously PA's always gonna be a competitive state and it's gonna come down to which party can pump their base more.

This is all right. The most important groups of swing voters in PA right now are the large number in Bucks and Montgomery who voted Biden at the top of the ticket but R downballot. That's why for all the fretting in this thread about the D primary, I actually think the R primary will have more to do with who wins in November. That candidate will have to walk a very fine line between getting high turnout from Trumpy rural voters, without turning off those suburban swing voters who are repulsed by Trump.

[ctherainbow]

Fetterman, Jackson and Kelly are on facebook knocking the socks off fundraising and on Twitter.

Just like Joe Kennedy and Bullock were, you rarely saw Markey on Facebook until it was campaign season and he disappeared just like you don't see Daines anymore after he beat Bullock

.That's why I am optimistic about a 🌊🌊🌊

I’m glad that you’re optimistic about a blue wave, but... what does any of that have to do with Fetterman theoretically campaigning for Kelly in AZ?

Are you an actual human account, or are you the Atlas equivalent of ten cats stacked in a trench coat trying to buy catnip?

[Crane]

Fetterman, Jackson and Kelly are on facebook knocking the socks off fundraising and on Twitter.

Just like Joe Kennedy and Bullock were, you rarely saw Markey on Facebook until it was campaign season and he disappeared just like you don't see Daines anymore after he beat Bullock

.That's why I am optimistic about a 🌊🌊🌊

I’m glad that you’re optimistic about a blue wave, but... what does any of that have to do with Fetterman theoretically campaigning for Kelly in AZ?

Are you an actual human account, or are you the Atlas equivalent of ten cats stacked in a trench coat trying to buy catnip?

That user's posting style is to reiterate the same point in many threads with only mild variations. It can be jarring if you aren't used to it.

[wbrocks67]

Jeff Bartos (R) is in. Yawn

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1368925319349100548

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Jeff Bartos (R) is in. Yawn

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1368925319349100548

He would be my dream GOP nominee if not Costello.

“John is a mensch,” Bartos says, referencing an event at Pennsylvania Society just after Fetterman had won their election, at which the lieutenant governor-elect agreed to speak on the condition that Bartos share the stage with him. “That’s who John is,” Bartos says. “Someone who shares the stage.”

https://thephiladelphiacitizen.org/fetterman-bartos-odd-couple/

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Breaking news: Ryan Costello has blocked me on Twitter. Very normal and rational guy.

The offending tweet:

https://twitter.com/moshxlyfe/status/1369686261691191300?s=20

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

tbh id love it if pam snyder was the nominee

[brucejoel99]

No clue as to how much pull Rendell still has (particularly in Philly, if anywhere), but if anybody does actually care about his endorsement, Fetterman has it (& this is notably after Rendell was obviously unhappy about Fetterman running back when Rendell was literally the chair of McGinty's 2016 campaign).

[Not Me, Us]

No clue as to how much pull Rendell still has (particularly in Philly, if anywhere), but if anybody does actually care about his endorsement, Fetterman has it (& this is notably after Rendell was obviously unhappy about Fetterman running back when Rendell was literally the chair of McGinty's 2016 campaign).

Interesting. I believe Rendell endorsed Fetterman in 2018 as well. It's especially odd given how moderate hero-y he's been.

[Spark]

As a resident of PA, this race looms large for the control of the Senate next year. I'm currently undecided on Fetterman, but I'd fully support Conor Lamb. [Fetterman] might be too left on environmental issues, and as a Progressive, I fear that he could potentially struggle in the suburbs.

[brucejoel99]

As a resident of PA, this race looms large for the control of the Senate next year. I'm currently undecided on Fetterman, but I'd fully support Conor Lamb. He might be too left on environmental issues, and as a Progressive, I fear that he could potentially struggle in the suburbs.

Are you saying that Lamb is a "progressive" who's "too left on environmental issues"? Because if so, that ain't it, chief.

[Crane]

As a resident of PA, this race looms large for the control of the Senate next year. I'm currently undecided on Fetterman, but I'd fully support Conor Lamb. He might be too left on environmental issues, and as a Progressive, I fear that he could potentially struggle in the suburbs.

Are you saying that Lamb is a "progressive" who's "too left on environmental issues"? Because if so, that ain't it, chief.

I think he means Fetterman. I happen to disagree, I share the opinions of most who think he will do great in the depressed pittsburgh suburbs and it won't harm him in the Philly area. The PA GOP is a joke at this point and is going to have a difficult time winning statewide election moving forward.

[coloradocowboi]

As a resident of PA, this race looms large for the control of the Senate next year. I'm currently undecided on Fetterman, but I'd fully support Conor Lamb. He might be too left on environmental issues, and as a Progressive, I fear that he could potentially struggle in the suburbs.

I really don't get why you should. The whole "climate change rhetoric sank Biden in Western PA" thing is another neoliberal lie. He even outperformed Lamb in his own district, despite Lamb bowing down to oil and gas.

I think if Dems are gonna survive in 2022, they can't go with focus-grouped, uncharismatic, boring white centrists. It will be a base turnout game more than a persuasion game, but I think Fetterman is the best for both anyway.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Fetterman seems relatively moderate on the environment compared to the standard progressive profile. He opposes the GND (while "supporting parts of it"), principally because of objections to an "unrealistic" five-year energy transition and a fracking ban.

Although he has signed the 'No Fossil Fuel Money' pledge, the differences between him and, say, Lamb are more likely to become apparent on issues like healthcare, housing, etc. I suppose environmental policy could become a key fault line between Fetterman and Kenyatta but I don't think they will end up occupying 1st and 2nd place.

[Young Conservative]

Fetterman seems relatively moderate on the environment compared to the standard progressive profile. He opposes the GND (while "supporting parts of it"), principally because of objections to an "unrealistic" five-year energy transition and a fracking ban.

Although he has signed the 'No Fossil Fuel Money' pledge, the differences between him and, say, Lamb are more likely to become apparent on issues like healthcare, housing, etc. I suppose environmental policy could become a key fault line between Fetterman and Kenyatta but I don't think they will end up occupying 1st and 2nd place.

Not supporting the green new deal does not make you moderate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fetterman seems relatively moderate on the environment compared to the standard progressive profile. He opposes the GND (while "supporting parts of it"), principally because of objections to an "unrealistic" five-year energy transition and a fracking ban.

Although he has signed the 'No Fossil Fuel Money' pledge, the differences between him and, say, Lamb are more likely to become apparent on issues like healthcare, housing, etc. I suppose environmental policy could become a key fault line between Fetterman and Kenyatta but I don't think they will end up occupying 1st and 2nd place.

Not supporting the green new deal does not make you moderate.

He owns a gun, eventhough he misused it, it helps him in the state of PA, just like Jeff Jackson being a vet helps him in NC
Having Bob Casey in the Senate helps Fetterman too

McGinty lost to Toomey, she was anti gun, which Fetterman or Casey aren't.  Sestak was a Vet

Don't forget Jack Murtha as a Vet helped D's regain Majority in 2006 being a Vet, too

[Young Conservative]

Fetterman seems relatively moderate on the environment compared to the standard progressive profile. He opposes the GND (while "supporting parts of it"), principally because of objections to an "unrealistic" five-year energy transition and a fracking ban.

Although he has signed the 'No Fossil Fuel Money' pledge, the differences between him and, say, Lamb are more likely to become apparent on issues like healthcare, housing, etc. I suppose environmental policy could become a key fault line between Fetterman and Kenyatta but I don't think they will end up occupying 1st and 2nd place.

Not supporting the green new deal does not make you moderate.

He owns a gun, eventhough he misused it, it helps him in the state of PA, just like Jeff Jackson being a vet helps him in NC

alright....that's enough Atlas for the day.

[KaiserDave]

Fetterman seems relatively moderate on the environment compared to the standard progressive profile. He opposes the GND (while "supporting parts of it"), principally because of objections to an "unrealistic" five-year energy transition and a fracking ban.

Although he has signed the 'No Fossil Fuel Money' pledge, the differences between him and, say, Lamb are more likely to become apparent on issues like healthcare, housing, etc. I suppose environmental policy could become a key fault line between Fetterman and Kenyatta but I don't think they will end up occupying 1st and 2nd place.

Not supporting the green new deal does not make you moderate.

Relatively

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs tend to forget that in 2016, Kate McGinty was so far left on the gun issue, it destroyed her chances, and Hillary being a female Prez potentially didn't help either, Biden won PA on the Green New Deal because he is still supportive of fracking

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Fetterman seems relatively moderate on the environment compared to the standard progressive profile. He opposes the GND (while "supporting parts of it"), principally because of objections to an "unrealistic" five-year energy transition and a fracking ban.

Although he has signed the 'No Fossil Fuel Money' pledge, the differences between him and, say, Lamb are more likely to become apparent on issues like healthcare, housing, etc. I suppose environmental policy could become a key fault line between Fetterman and Kenyatta but I don't think they will end up occupying 1st and 2nd place.

Not supporting the green new deal does not make you moderate.

I used the term 'relatively' because the distinction stands in contrast with most of Fetterman's stances on other hot button issues, and it seems very deliberate. Plenty of climate activists who might support more radical policies would not agree with everything in the AOC white paper, but 'supporting the GND' seems disconnected from that white paper to some extent, and 'well ackshually, I am more radical' is not the way he appears to be framing the issue.

I am not sure how much room there is for public disagreement between him and Lamb on climate issues. I suppose you could say that Lamb isn't moderate either, but the term is comparative.

[S019]

Fetterman seems relatively moderate on the environment compared to the standard progressive profile. He opposes the GND (while "supporting parts of it"), principally because of objections to an "unrealistic" five-year energy transition and a fracking ban.

Although he has signed the 'No Fossil Fuel Money' pledge, the differences between him and, say, Lamb are more likely to become apparent on issues like healthcare, housing, etc. I suppose environmental policy could become a key fault line between Fetterman and Kenyatta but I don't think they will end up occupying 1st and 2nd place.

Not supporting the green new deal does not make you moderate.

Quite frankly, saving the environment is not a moderate, or conservative, or liberal issue. Had we done Cap-and-Trade 10 years ago, then maybe we wouldn't need the Green New Deal, but your party blocked it and now we need something very ambitious like the GND to save the planet. This isn't a matter of right or left, it's a matter of doing what's right.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI, NH and PA in all likelihood will go D

[wbrocks67]

lol Costello

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/clout/ryan-costello-twitter-tuesdays-with-toomey-20210319.html

[I’m not Stu]

If Doug Mastriano runs, he will be the GOP nominee.