PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Lean R. Biden only won here by about 1%; I think Fitzpatrick would be the GOP's strongest candidate, and they needn't worry about sacrificing a House seat.

Well, if we're going off of this year, then Shapiro should be the SEN candidate then, since he outperformed Biden by nearly 4% with record GOP turnout.

But yes, realistically, Fitz is probably the best person the GOP has statewide. Their bench is pretty awful.

They did pick up two statewide offices this year, so one of them could run.

The Treasury isn't confirmed yet.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I'm not sure McConnell would want to recruit Fitzpatrick given his stance on the ACA.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I'm not sure McConnell would want to recruit Fitzpatrick given his stance on the ACA.

Who cares? Once the SCOTUS rules on it, it will be in the rear-view mirror! ACA won't be an issue in 2022 at all.

If the SCOTUS rules that it is not unconstitutional (which is fundamentally different from ruling that banning gay marriage is unconstitutional), McConnell will probably begin to pursue the skinny repeal route again. He cares much more about destroying the welfare state than successfully waging a culture war.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If Costello is the nominee, I'd move the race from tilt R to pure tossup, choosing Fetterman at gunpoint. Costello's schtick might not work directly on voters but his "moderate FF" bonafides (and the return to a previous form of Republicanism) might still be intact in the eyes of cable news programs which could subsequently talk him up in a race against E X T R E M E John Fetterman.

It's a lot easier to be given the benefit of the doubt and pull his sort of nonsense off when his party is in the minority and in a Democratic trifecta's midterm to boot.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

How is someone who retired from Congress because the party was too Trumpy going to win this primary?

I agree he's unlikely to win the primary, but Costello retired from Congress primarily for electoral reasons.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If Costello is the nominee, I'd move the race from tilt R to pure tossup, choosing Fetterman at gunpoint. Costello's schtick might not work directly on voters but his "moderate FF" bonafides (and the return to a previous form of Republicanism) might still be intact in the eyes of cable news programs which could subsequently talk him up in a race against E X T R E M E John Fetterman.

It's a lot easier to be given the benefit of the doubt and pull his sort of nonsense off when his party is in the minority and in a Democratic trifecta's midterm to boot.

I think they're all at a disadvantage though; it's hard to label Fetterman a "radical". He's been very public the past few years, he's very well known, and I just don't see the "radical socialist" schtick working on him

I have doubts about the efficacy of that rhetoric in general, but what I mean is that if Costello is perceived to be a Paul Ryan Republican and Fetterman continues to seem a transformative type of Democrat, a significant number of commentators who otherwise would stay neutral or even Democratic-leaning could play along with the attack line (and that might give it some oomph).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Part of the case for Fetterman doing better in small town America is that this is where his electoral career began and is probably the political territory he's most familiar with. Braddock is a heavily Democratic area, hardly rural and big asterisks about the advantages of incumbency and local vs federal politics apply, but the town has faced similar issues to much of Western PA and he did manage to increase his majority in the Democratic primary each time he ran for reelection (with no serious opposition in the GE).

I agree Cartwright is probably a better choice but there's no indication he's going to make a bid for it.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Boring take: Unless Republicans nominate a complete disaster of a candidate, this will quickly turn into a generic R vs. generic D vote, regardless of whether Democrats nominate Lamb, Cartwright, or Fetterman. (1) What’s Biden's approval on election day? (2) How high is R turnout in rural/small-town PA? And there you have your winner. It’s more likely than not that the Democratic candidate for SEN slightly outperforms Biden's approval %, but it won’t be by more than 1-2% (granted, that could be enough in a very close race). Tilt R for now.

No, John Fetterman or Matt Cartwright would do better among the working-class in western or northeastern PA, while Conor Lamb or generic Phili D would do better among educated voters in the Phili suburbs.

K.

Your skepticism towards reversal of trends is warranted as these are likely to continue in some form regardless of the candidates at the federal level. However, I do think the extent to which these trends occur will vary depending on the candidate and that is where the Lamb vs Fetterman vs Houlahan etc. analysis is worthwhile.

I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that Cartwright would hold up better in R-trending areas (relative to D-trending areas) than e.g. Wild. He has a track record of doing this at the federal level.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

See they've already begun messaging against Fetterman to paint him as an out of touch elitest.

https://twitter.com/RyanCostello/status/1361434448525463555?s=19

3+ hours & only 63 likes? I'm already shaking in my boots because of just how effective this messaging is proving to be.

(/s if it wasn't painfully obvious)

This is just a small taste of whats coming, they'll destroy the man.

Fetterman would probably lose and the Republican nominee's campaign is almost certain to be hard-hitting whether or not that happens.

However, the nominee is not going to be Costello. He is amongst the least capable to pull off a populist campaign, being an anti-Trump lobbyist who backed down from a tough electoral fight. Amongst moderate Republicans, he is lacking the union support Brian Fitzpatrick enjoys and his forays into the culture war have seemed pretty inept so far.

He may have significant appeal amongst suburban ancestral Republicans for other reasons, but that's not where this kind of rhetoric tends to bear fruit.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Considering Pennsylvania hasn't had a black statewide politican of prominence in a long time (if ever? besides like Auditor General or something), this would be huge For Kenyatta. That could work in his favor.

Don't get the hype about Cartwright. Yeah, he did great in his district, but that's more reason for him to STAY there, b/c we'd lose that seat then if he'd lose. And I don't see Cartwright performing any different than someone like Lamb statewide. People may hate Lamb here for some reason, but PA is still very much a tossup, so I think he'd be an Ossoff-type statewide candidate (and I mean that in a good way)

I'm still not convinced Lamb will jump in though. Would make sense for him to wait for Attorney General, no?

Lamb doesn't have the social media chops Ossoff does nor is he really appealing to younger voters. He strikes me as a Buttigieg type, a young straight laced guy who old people love.

Buttigieg at least had the sense not to oppose decriminalised marijuana. Lamb says he's in favour of it 'in a serious way' but has voted on it in a way that'd make Tipper Gore proud. It's the sort of galaxy brained political posturing which actively repels voters across the political spectrum.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It’s not like Sinema has ever “sabotaged” the Democratic agenda either.

I'm gonna hard disagree here. Her weird obsession for maintaining the filibuster has absolutely hindered Democratic policy goals. Plus, she has killed using reconciliation for increasing the minimum wage. Manchin has done these as well, but he's the best we'll ever get out of WV. Sinema doesn't need to be as conservative as she is to win, Mark Kelly has shown that.

I'd wait 'til she casts legitimate votes on the Senate floor to maintain the filibuster &/or keep the minimum wage out of the reconciliation package before asserting these statements as if they're pure fact. 'Til she's done so, there's frankly no reason to believe that what she's doing hasn't just been a bunch of Manchin-esque kabuki theater.

Kabuki theatre that dramatically and consistently slows the legislative process hinders policy goals by lowering the number that can get passed in a two-year window and damaging the responsiveness (and thus, the efficacy) of government. Relief and nominations should not have taken this long.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I know, I know, the comparisons are played out. But Georgia just elected a black pastor and a Jewish millennial and we're still doing the whole "Kenyatta is unelectable because he's gay and black" spiel. Give me a break.

One moment: Georgia isn't Pennsylvania

Wow really, I'd never considered that before.

Look, does anyone here have an actual reason why Fetterman is supposedly so much more electable than Kenyatta other than the fact he happens to fit our stereotype of what a white working class voter happens to look like? I can understand this argument with someone like Cartwright, who has actually had electoral overperformance in federal races before, but Fetterman's only won races in a heavily Democratic city and a crowded primary for lieutenant governor where he was the only Western Pennsylvania candidate running.

If you view swing voters in Pennsylvania as all racists and homophobes who won't vote for Kenyatta because he's a scary gay black man, then just be up front and say that. Both Kenyatta and Fetterman seem absolutely fine on policy and I'd be happy to run with either, but y'all need to actually base your arguments against Kenyatta on something more tangible than an imaginary aura of electability that Fetterman has.

The evidence isn't that thick and there's always a limit to the values of these prognostications, but I'll bite. For the record, the way in which Fetterman has run his campaign so far has caused his stock to drop a bit in my eyes and I'm watching Kenyatta's run with interest, but one could make an early case in favour of the former and against the latter.

A potential electoral upside for lefties lies in a willingness to criticise and oppose the party establishment/"populism" and perceived political independence in the eyes of voters cynical towards traditional politics. Sherrod Brown's long vigil against free trade, for instance, probably helped him a fair bit over the years. Kenyatta being on board with Biden very early would indicate he's less likely than Fetterman to go for this sort of campaign and thus could pick up any electoral downsides of being "tOo RaDicAl" while also not gaining from being an apparent political outsider.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This thread has officially gone off the rails, though I don’t think it was ever on the rails in the first place.

It'll get back on when, after months of Kenyatta vs Fetterman discourse, Lamb wins the primary comfortably with DSCC backing.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Primary poll

Fetterman 29
Lamb 14
Keyanetta 9

Making it a 3 person race would be excellent news for Fetterman, it would stear the conversation away from the jogger story, whom is still the fav

Users jumped on the Keyenatta bandwagon too soon

Link, or did you make this all up?

He occasionally hazards a guess as to the next poll like this. It's not so different from the activity in the poll hype thread.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Anyone else miss the days when Olawakandi stanned Sestak?  No?  Just me?

We all miss the Admiral rn, but don't despair. While the Fetterman and Kenyatta keyboard warriors fight on the bloody fields of Twitter, they are completely unprepared for an attack by sea, and Toomey's decision to abandon the defence of his seat makes Sestak's path clearer than ever before.

He just needs to secure the endorsements of Bennet and Messam before setting sail for DC. This time, the campaign will be unsinkable regardless of which red waves it has to ride.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Fetterman seems relatively moderate on the environment compared to the standard progressive profile. He opposes the GND (while "supporting parts of it"), principally because of objections to an "unrealistic" five-year energy transition and a fracking ban.

Although he has signed the 'No Fossil Fuel Money' pledge, the differences between him and, say, Lamb are more likely to become apparent on issues like healthcare, housing, etc. I suppose environmental policy could become a key fault line between Fetterman and Kenyatta but I don't think they will end up occupying 1st and 2nd place.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Fetterman seems relatively moderate on the environment compared to the standard progressive profile. He opposes the GND (while "supporting parts of it"), principally because of objections to an "unrealistic" five-year energy transition and a fracking ban.

Although he has signed the 'No Fossil Fuel Money' pledge, the differences between him and, say, Lamb are more likely to become apparent on issues like healthcare, housing, etc. I suppose environmental policy could become a key fault line between Fetterman and Kenyatta but I don't think they will end up occupying 1st and 2nd place.

Not supporting the green new deal does not make you moderate.

I used the term 'relatively' because the distinction stands in contrast with most of Fetterman's stances on other hot button issues, and it seems very deliberate. Plenty of climate activists who might support more radical policies would not agree with everything in the AOC white paper, but 'supporting the GND' seems disconnected from that white paper to some extent, and 'well ackshually, I am more radical' is not the way he appears to be framing the issue.

I am not sure how much room there is for public disagreement between him and Lamb on climate issues. I suppose you could say that Lamb isn't moderate either, but the term is comparative.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I get that some people seem to think the Democratic primary is all that matters in this race (this race seems to be the new poster child for Atlas' "Democratic candidate quality matters, all Republican candidates are clowns" shtick), but no Republican will be "toast" in a general election for federal office in PA in 2022, please get real.

the GOP primary really is under discussed here, however lack of chatter is indicative of the fact that the PA GOP doesn't really have a bench. Yes, they have two row offices now, but they're probably not the best candidates for this seat and are very green. The GOP delegation here is mostly old backbenchers with a few exceptions. It'll be quite interesting to see whom the party GOP will rally around, but there's so many unknowns as of right now.

Comparing the weak GOP bench to the field of talent that the dems have in the state: Fetterman, Kenyatta, Dean, Wild, Cartwright, Shapiro (yeah ik he's not running), Lamb, Boyle, etc

Not only that, but whoever the GOP nominee is has to walk a very fine line between winning over swing voters in the Philly burbs/Lehigh Valley/Wyoming Valley and pumping turnout in Pennsyltucky.

It's not too fine a line if you're not the incumbent and your party is seen to be out of power at the Congressional and presidential levels. They probably just need to avoid offending either group too much, as opposed to actively having to win them over.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If the apparatus backs Lamb, it will mark my point of no return with the Democratic Party. Manchinism must be stopped if the party is truly interested in making policy.

At least Manchin consistently overperformed top-of-the-ticket Democrats.

Lamb over-performed quite a bit in both the special and the 2018 GE.  In 2020, unlike most congressional Democrats in tough districts, he matched Biden’s showing IIRC.  Plus, every election he’s run in was a competitive race and he’s currently three for three.  I get not trusting him for ideological reasons - although I don’t think he’d be as bad as Sinema, Manchin, or even Maggie Hassen - and I’d even want him to commit to some things like nuking the filibuster.  

That said, while he’s not a Cartwright-level over-performer, he has an excellent electoral track record and is a good fit for PA.  And I don’t see how one can argue Lamb would be less electable than Fetterman, Kenyatta, or Street.  Maybe we don’t need Lamb to win and it isn’t worth the ideological tradeoff, but he’s definitely the strongest candidate currently running from an electability standpoint.

Not in terms of margin, but I deleted my post because he managed to do better than the average House Democratic candidate's underperformance.

I don't think he'd be the weakest candidate PA Dems could put up, but I'm not convinced he's more electable than the Lt Gov.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I am shocked, shocked I tell you, that an Fetterman internal showed a good result for Fetterman

The GE numbers aren't worth that much, but D4P has a pretty good track record in Democratic primaries. They tended to overestimate the proportions of college-educated voters in the 2020 primaries, but (mandatory health warning) the crosstabs would suggest that Fetterman isn't significantly weaker with non-college educated voters. This poll might not be overselling his current standing in the primary by much, but that could change quickly if and when (and it is probably a matter of when) the DSCC machine gets behind Lamb.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Any Republican who starts their pitch with 'Not Trumpism' is heading to electoral doom. Successful anti-Trump Republicans like Phil Scott carve out their brands a little more carefully.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If one subscribes to the belief that Conor Lamb is a strong candidate, I struggle to see how one can also argue that Sean Parnell isn't at least average.

Lamb's saving grace for underperforming Biden is that he did it by less than most House Democrats, but even then, he benefited from lagging trends.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Sean Parnell's military thriller, Man of War features graphic violence against women.

Sean Parnell’s military thriller “Man of War” contains graphic scenes of violence against female characters, raising additional questions about his attitude toward women in the wake of court testimony that he physically and verbally abused his estranged wife.

Parnell, who has emerged as the frontrunner in the Pennsylvania GOP Senate primary, portrays multiple scenes of men assaulting women in the 2018 novel, the first of four in a fiction series written by the Army combat veteran.

Nothingburgers like this are how the alleged abuse will become politically defused. Nobody open to voting Parnell is going to care that he wrote an edgy (and quite possibly tasteless) book.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Not surprised to see Conor Lamchin go along with Pelosi's Betrayal.

There is no universe where Lamb is even remotely comparable to Manchin.  And there was nothing wrong with that Tweet.  

It's bad in context, especially if you consider that his first ad highlighted "Jan. 6":

https://twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/1457561213127299076
His pitch is going to be along the lines of "Orange man bad, and I'm not a socialist." It's not quite McAuliffe-tier, but it's close. Congress has rotted his brain to the point where his campaign will be pretty mediocre.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

And that's a wrap for the political career of Sean Parnell, folks.

And the chances of Democrats winning this seat.

I’m still not convinced he would fare worse than Generic R.